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COT Matrix Updated 09/16/14

09/19/2014 15:29:00 PM

--->COT Matrix COT Matrix ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis > read more

Review of Lumber

09/19/2014 08:00:00 AM

LumberLumber traders, influenced more by the short- than long-term, have likely forgotten lumber's positive to negative DI oscillation or bull phase. Today's oscillation which likely ends under a crescendo of buying, greed, and bearish setups won't b > read more

Up Trend In Stocks Resilient

09/19/2014 06:36:00 AM

NasdaqPrice may have smashed through minor support with force on 9/15, but it returned above it the next day (chart 1). > read more

Scots Vote Against Separation (For Now)

09/19/2014 06:08:00 AM

---> NewsDo you think majority of Californians, most dependent on the federal and state assistant programs to eek out a subsistence living, would vote to leave the US Union or California? That outcome, despite lots of flag waving and media hype, wou > read more

IBM cuts pay for workers it says can't keep up: Report

09/18/2014 13:05:00 PM

--->Select employees, interpreted as those without leverage in the company, forced to train at reduced pay for the betterment of the company. A slick PR move that likely reduces the workforce without incurring those nasty severance payments. He > read more

NFL sacked! Pepsi demands 'immediate' change

09/18/2014 11:23:00 AM

--->Pespi, the purveyor of sugary drinks and salty foods in a society mired by obesity and diabetes, is the leading the moral charge against the NFL. This is similar to appointing Gandhi, an advocate of non-violent civil disobedience, the president > read more

Downtrend in Gold Steadfast

09/18/2014 09:10:00 AM

GoldThe downtrend in gold remains steadfast (chart 1). A test of the July 2013 low, a probable event, has the potential to resolve the cause building phase. A light volume test and close above this support zone would generate a bullish setup. A he > read more

Review of Natural Gas

09/18/2014 07:00:00 AM

Natural GasThe natural gas (NG) trends, discussed below, haven't changed much from last week. While NG's short-term picture holds steady, > read more

Rising Bullish Sentiment Towards Stocks Not Concentrated

09/18/2014 06:17:00 AM

SentimentThose arguing excessive bullish sentiment towards urges caution towards stocks (1,2) could be early - really early. > read more

Review of Copper

09/17/2014 08:18:00 AM

CopperYesterday's sharp short-covering rally in copper has traders wondering if the time is right for a change of trend (chart 1). > read more

Intermarket Trends Bullish or Turning Bullish For Stocks

09/17/2014 07:49:00 AM

US StocksThe message of the market as defined by volatility (VIX) futures ratio generated a bullish crossover signal (green stick) in February 2014.This directional measure for stocks remains bullish through September. > read more

Review of Crude Oil

09/17/2014 06:10:00 AM

Crude OilCrude oil's downtrend will reverse when the majority, fully committed to selling, 'sees' nothing but pessimism and lower prices ahead. Investors trying to time this transition should be watching the trend indicators, invisible hand, and cycl > read more

Local Municipalities Sowing The Seeds of Their Own Demise

09/16/2014 11:52:00 AM

---> Fed BudgetOrlando and countless other local municipalities across the US that spend more than they have will be raising taxes to close hefty budget deficits. Unfortunately, few politicians understand or care to understand that taxation and eco > read more

Scottish Separation Vote Pushing Movements in Gold?

09/16/2014 07:00:00 AM

GoldThe Scottish separation vote, a potential trigger event that could ignite the separation movements throughout Europe and the rest of the world, could move the markets. > read more

US Stocks Break the Ice of Minor Support

09/16/2014 06:27:00 AM

---> NasdaqPrice has smashed through minor support with force (chart). > read more

Intermarket Trend Change Redefines Path of Least Resistance For Gold

09/16/2014 06:10:00 AM

Gold SharesGold priced in major currencies which has already broken through the February 2014 low (15) is fast approaching the July 2013 low at 14.5 (chart 1). This break of minor support has emboldened the bears and terrified most of the bulls. A t > read more

Breaking the Ice of Near Term Support: NYSE Composite

09/15/2014 07:38:00 AM

NYSE CompThe NYSE Composite crashed through gap support with force on 09/09 (chart 1). This breaking of the ice, indicated increasing downside force and continuation of what Richard Wyckoff recognized as cause building; Wyckoff's supply/demand obser > read more

Die-Hard Gasoline Bulls Turning Bearish: Review of Gasoline

09/15/2014 07:00:00 AM

GasolineThe gasoline trade/setup is nearly the same as last week. Price, falling steadily within a bear phase (negative to positive DI oscillation that begin late March/earlyApril) and bearish seasonality trend (chart 1, 2, and 3), has converted a lo > read more

Diffusion Charts Updated 09/09/14

09/13/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->DI Charts > read more

COT Matrix Updated 09/09/14

09/12/2014 16:36:00 PM

--->COT Matrix COT Matrix ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysis > read more

IMF Is Hardly An Objective Observer

09/12/2014 11:05:00 AM

---> Let's not forget that markets could fall if the world continue to adhere to IMF-lead austerity policies. As always, perspective on any issue, like a coin, has more than one side. > read more

The Trend Towards Separation

09/12/2014 08:14:00 AM

--->Protesters, estimated over a million, are beginning to push against the old system. Domestic insurgence, war, and revolution usually follow cries of independence. Americans, who study the American Revolutionary War as children, are surprisingly > read more

Resolution of Gold's Causing Building Phase Could Be Up or Down

09/12/2014 07:58:00 AM

GoldIntermarket analysis indicated outflows from and risk-aversion to precious metals since early July. As previous discussed, these trends appear to be accelerating behind a backdrop of fear and relentless selling by chasers. Investors will be wat > read more

Market Says Economic Bears Have Timing Wrong: Review of Retail Sales

09/12/2014 07:00:00 AM

Retail SalesThe economic bears, citing a contraction in retail sales, have been saying a deep recession lies ahead. Many of them, however, have been 'predicting' this outcome for years. In a world defined by cycles (ebb and flow), these types of stat > read more

Eliminate the Impossible To Find The Truth

09/12/2014 06:26:00 AM

---> SentimentWhen you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth, Sherlock Holmes in The Sign of the Four (Doubleday p. 111) Weighted investor sentiment towards stocks (WA) fell to 0.4 as stocks resumed > read more

American Households From Chasers To Bagholders

09/11/2014 19:17:00 PM

--->Flow of FundsForecasts of stock market crash ahead continue to populate the headlines. The reasons for the crash varying from excessive valuations (i.e. fundamentals) to the termination of the Fed's easy monetary policies. These types of explanat > read more

Review of Nasdaq

09/11/2014 08:13:00 AM

---> NasdaqThe 08/25 support zone (gap) has been tested several times on increasing volume. This suggests increasing downside force and a short-term downtrend building cause for change. If smashes through support with > read more

Review of Crude Oil

09/11/2014 07:00:00 AM

Crude OilCrude will turn, unexpectedly, when the majority sees nothing but lower prices ahead. Bulls and bears trying to time this outcome should be watching the invisible hand. The invisible hand, ignoring bearish headlines, growing negative sentime > read more

Japan Confirms Socialism Pushing On A String

09/11/2014 06:30:00 AM

---> Fed BudgetThe socialistic agenda, while privately wanting more for the public sector through taxation policies, desperately needs private sector economic growth to maintain control and support. The strong inverse correlation between growth and > read more

Review of Natural Gas

09/03/2014 07:00:00 AM

Readers should review previous comments for further discussion of the evolution of the natural gas (NG) trade. The invisible hand, ignoring headlines and increasing bearish sentiment, continues to accumulate NG's decline within a bear phase. Show > read more

Review US Economic Activity

09/03/2014 07:00:00 AM

---> The economic bears have been grumbling about a bad economy for months - even years. Investors following these grumblings, some based on highly sophisticated analysis difficult to challenge, have withdrawn from stocks as a recession/depression p > read more

Review of Gold

09/03/2014 06:57:00 AM

The value of all assets, including money, follows the business cycle. Gold may be internationally recognized, but it's no more a store of value than Wampum was to Eastern Woodland Indians and European during early colonial times; each recognized as > read more

Review of Gold

09/02/2014 07:00:00 AM

A comparison of money flows - gold, silver, and equity-relative (see below) show little has changed in precious metals. Aging bull phases have failed to produce a sizable rally in either gold or silver. Experienced traders know that bulls will be 's > read more

Review of Silver

09/02/2014 07:00:00 AM

Silver's technical and money flow setup which generally leads gold suggest weakness and a resolution to the cause building phase soon. The following must be recognized by silver traders: Show ------------------------------------- As a speci > read more

Coming Soon Currencies Demoralized and Governements Embarrassed

09/02/2014 06:00:00 AM

---> Detroit's struggles represent a dress rehearsal to a bigger show already touring with bad reviews in Europe and Japan. As the global debt crisis migrates from weaker to stronger economies and evolves from bailout to confiscation, Detroit's ban > read more

Review of Gasoline: Falling Gas Prices Save Labor Day Weekend

08/31/2014 08:29:00 AM

As expected, headlines about falling gas prices saving the consumer and labor day weekend are numerous. While the 'reasons' to jump for joy at the pump range from a relative calm hurricane season to high production rates in the US, they most ignore t > read more

Diffusion Charts Updated 08/26/14

08/30/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->DI Charts > read more

COT Matrix Updated 08/26/14

08/29/2014 15:57:00 PM

---> COT Matrix COT Matrix ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This analysi > read more

Review of US Stocks

08/29/2014 07:10:00 AM

---> The rally that continues to defy bearish expectations has broken trendline from August low. This minor technical break that marks the onset of profit-taking and bearish headlines following price increases the probability that path of least resis > read more

Review of Crude Oil

08/29/2014 07:00:00 AM

The bulls, ignoring extreme negative concentration – bearish setups from mid June to mid July, were confident the price would jump the creek of resistance (chart). The steady decline since then has quieted them and awakened the bears. The bears, > read more

Russia Cancels 6th Bond Sale as Yields Climb on Ukraine Tension

08/28/2014 07:07:00 AM

--->Follow the money! The inability to sell debt/raise money only augments Putin's need to create an external enemy to hide Russia's economic decline. This goes for NATO economies as well. In this case, the external enemy is Ukraine as a proxy for > read more

Review of Lumber

08/28/2014 07:00:00 AM

Lumber has tested gap support as support on expanding volume (chart 1). This suggests increasing downside force and increases the probability at least a retest of this zone and/or continuation of the downward wave within a larger positive to negativ > read more

Review of Sentiment

08/28/2014 06:40:00 AM

---> Weighed investor sentiment towards stocks (WA) has soared to 1.87. > read more

Warren Buffett's Tax Whopper

08/27/2014 10:38:00 AM

--->Warren Buffett didn't become the third richest man in the world through socialistic practices or by playing politics. > read more

Review of US Stocks

08/27/2014 07:42:00 AM

---> REV(E), fast approaching new, all-time highs, should lead price above it's July high. > read more

Review of Natural Gas

08/27/2014 07:00:00 AM

Natural gas, trading within bear phase, is slowly approaching a bullish setup. > read more

Capital Follows The Path of Least Resistance

08/27/2014 07:00:00 AM

---> The answer - both and neither. The price of US housing, the intersection of supply with domestic and international demand within localized market, is far more complicated than price, interest rates, or combination. Capital flows, while influenc > read more

Income Inequality Bandwagon

08/26/2014 10:38:00 AM

---> Right, and TV is exacerbating the stupidity of our children. Stupidity, a human condition that Einstein characterize as infinite, existed long before TV. Likewise, income inequality existed long before elite colleges and fraternity houses. P > read more

France thrown into political turmoil after government dissolved

08/26/2014 07:51:00 AM

--->European austerity, motivated the ghost of German hyperinflation, has squashed entrepreneurship and curtailed investment necessary to drive future economic growth. As a result, soaring unemployment throughout Europe, especially among youth, have > read more

The Fed Controls Only It's Image

08/26/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->Please...the Fed, despite the well-maintained illusion of control, follows market forces, not vice versa. They know it. Headline: Pressure builds within Fed to signal new policy course JACKSON HOLE Wyo. (Reuters) - Pressure is building with > read more

Review of Gasoline

08/26/2014 07:00:00 AM

Soon, if not already, mainstream media (MSM), the lap dog of faulty logic and linear reasoning, will be raving about how gasoline's sharp decline, acting as a tax break for Americans, will help them spend more and the economy grow. Whatever. Good t > read more

The dying American dream, perfectly illustrated with Legos

08/25/2014 08:16:00 AM

--->Family, strong work ethic, and education. As Frederick Douglass and Gandhi show us that this education need not be formalized, separated from spirituality, or measured against standardized tests. Those that maintain all three within society th > read more

Review of US Stocks

08/25/2014 07:00:00 AM

---> While the NYSE Composite index (chart 1), still trading below it's all time highs on contracting volume, lags the NASDAQ composite (chart 2), which is already trading above the July highs, it should follow soon. > read more

COT Matrix Updated 08/19/14

08/22/2014 15:53:00 PM

--->COT Matrix COT Matrix 08/19/14 ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This > read more

Review of Cotton

08/22/2014 07:00:00 AM

Cotton, an economically sensitive commodity that's most often spun into yarn or thread and used to make a soft, breathable textile, continues to be accumulated by the invisible. This accumulation is illustrated by DI above 60% in December 2013 and J > read more

Review of Gold

08/22/2014 06:47:00 AM

Investors track assets priced by a basket of currencies (major currencies) to define the direction of the trend and money flows.A bull market in gold, for example, rallies not against a single currency but rather all (major) currencies. Gold entered > read more

Investors Have Returned To Chasing Strength

08/21/2014 07:00:00 AM

---> Pavlov suggested that the salivation of dogs was a learned response. The dogs were responding to the sight of the research assistants' white lab coats which the animals associated with the presentation of food. Unlike the salivary response to t > read more

Review of Small Cap Stocks

08/21/2014 07:00:00 AM

---> Small cap stocks (RUT) have underperformed SP500 since March 2014. The bears are growling about this underperformance as a signal that stocks are primed for a big crash. This technical setup, a common money flow pattern during periods of growi > read more

Review of US Treasury Bonds

08/20/2014 08:45:00 AM

--->A close above the -45 degree trendlines from the 2012 highs confirms the up trend and encourages the bulls to chase. > read more

Review of US Stocks

08/20/2014 07:27:00 AM

--->If previous resistance acts as support, the breakout of price, confirmed by REV(E), changes the path of least resistance from down to up. Chart: ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, addi > read more

Hunger in America: 1 in 7 rely on food banks

08/20/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->Unfortunately, this ratio will decline by 2017. The majority will point fingers, while the minority works diligently to help. Headline: Hunger in America: 1 in 7 rely on food banks LORTON, Va. – When Mary Smallenburg, 35, of Fort Belvoir, > read more

Review of the Nasdaq 100

08/20/2014 07:00:00 AM

The technology-laden NASDAQ composite has been leading the broader market since the 2008 breakout (chart 1). Investors trained to recognize relative money flows changes as an alternation of the message of the market will be watching this trend closel > read more

Your paycheck has been shrinking for 5 years

08/20/2014 06:28:00 AM

---> Stagnant wage growth, rising inflation - especially outside officially reported numbers, rising taxes and other cost of socialism, and growing productivity have contributed to the trend of falling standard of livings for most Americans for decad > read more

Argentina's Fernandez calls holdouts greedy, bent on thwarting deal

08/19/2014 07:00:00 AM

---> The greedy vultures hell-bent on thwarting a debt solution didn't put Argentina into this position. This is similar to complaining to the loan shark about the terms of the deal after the cash was received and spent. Trouble begins for all sover > read more

Technical Review of US Stocks

08/19/2014 06:26:00 AM

---> US stocks have been range bound since early July (chart). > read more

Sandcastles verboten on German beach

08/18/2014 19:05:00 PM

---> ...One lifeguard told the Kieler Nachrichten that " there is a risk of tripping, and from a certain height it can be dangerous"... Seriously? > read more

Lumber Does Its Thing Regardless of Headlines

08/18/2014 09:14:00 AM

--->Biases will influence interpretations of the headline below. For Insight readers, followers of the message of the market, it provides nothing more than entertainment to fill the day. lumber's message, a slowly evolving bull phase since spring of > read more

Review of Gold and Gold Shares

08/18/2014 07:05:00 AM

Insights follows relative money flows in precious metals as a leading indicator of change (trend or message of market). > read more

Review of Gasoline

08/18/2014 07:00:00 AM

UGA, a equity-based gasoline proxy trading within a bear phase since April 2014, fell to 55.88 last week (chart 1). The sharp decline through July has made it easy and popular to be a gasoline bear. > read more

Gimmicks Don't Change Reality of Pensions

08/18/2014 06:44:00 AM

--->Accounting gimmicks which sent many of Wall Street's corporate leaders to jail - remember Enron? are standard within the public sector. The latest gimmick allows the Treasury to close the budget gap and corporations to borrow other people's mone > read more

Diffusion Charts Updated 08/12/14

08/16/2014 07:15:00 AM

--->DI Charts > read more

Local police get billions in military equipment

08/16/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->In preparation for what? Handing out parking tickets? Breaking up high school drinking parties? Dealing with petty crimes to major felonies? As social unrest grows across the country and world during each cyclical economic contraction, the fo > read more

COT Matrix Updated 08/12/14

08/16/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->COT Matrix COT Matrix 07/29/14 ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This > read more

Review of Retail Stocks

08/15/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->The underperformance of the retail stock sector relative to the broader market (SP 500) since the fall of 2013 reveals the deterioration of the consumer in the United States (chart 1). Since private consumption as a percent of output accounts fo > read more

US Economic Activity

08/15/2014 07:00:00 AM

---> While raising taxes improves the budget over the short-term, a favored tactic of politically-motivated economic policies, they hammer it when the economic cycles turn down. > read more

Review of US Stocks

08/15/2014 06:54:00 AM

The NASDAQ composite closed above 7/31 on contracting volume (chart 1). > read more

Here we go again? Wall Street buying risky mortgages

08/14/2014 11:22:00 AM

--->If prohibition era laws, a regulation from the past, couldn't stop people from drinking and other risky behaviors from 1920 to 1933, what makes us think that today's financial regulation will stop the creation of risky derivative products? > read more

Obama Won't Return Money From Tax Deals He Dislikes

08/14/2014 07:45:00 AM

--->One man's patriotism is another man's treason. Leadership by example is nearly extinct and partially explains why approval ratings for public figures remains is so low. Headline: Obama Won't Return Money From Tax Deals He Dislikes President > read more

Review of Lumber

08/14/2014 07:39:00 AM

The lumber rally which has defied bearish headlines and expectations has not surprised everyone. Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and i > read more

Once a European financial stalwart, Germany now in trouble

08/14/2014 07:00:00 AM

Flight of capital from the Eurozone and reach of the IMF, worsened by escalating economic sanctions between superpower egos, is making short work of Germany's economy and financial position. > read more

Review of Natural Gas

08/14/2014 07:00:00 AM

Natural gas (NG), following a cooler than normal spring and summer, has been trending lower since February/May 2014 (chart 1). > read more

Review of Sentiment

08/14/2014 06:37:00 AM

--->Investor sentiment, the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months, shows a similar compulsive behavior to dogs chasing their tails. Dog chase their tails for fun and atten > read more

Review of US Stocks

08/13/2014 07:25:00 AM

--->The headline below has been included for entertainment purposes. The only thing investors need to follow is the message of the market. That message, already discussed at length, has not changed. How price handles the first layer of resistance > read more

Review of Total Bank Credit

08/13/2014 07:00:00 AM

---> Credit trends within the commercial banking system have changed little since 2008 (table). > read more

Review of Gasoline

08/13/2014 06:55:00 AM

The invisible hand, a reference to the the composition of leverage within a market, traders gasoline (RBOB) pretty well. Negative and positive concentration of the diffusion index, an indication of imbalance, often markets the beginning of a bear an > read more

Seasonality or Cycles Supported By Data

08/12/2014 07:39:00 AM

While most headline analysis suggests the heavy hand of opinion, some are supported by market-driven data. These discussions, based on something other than ambiguous references, can be proven and/or challenged by the scientific method. Insight reader > read more

Economic Sanctions Today's Version of Smoot Hawley

08/12/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->Americans through Smoot Hawley Tariffs and similar said 'neyt' to a lot agriculture and industrial products in the early stages of the Great Depression behind a wave of patriotism, speeches, and flag waving. Of course, opponents of the tariffs, e > read more

Review of US Treasury Bonds

08/12/2014 06:40:00 AM

Bearish setups increase the probability of a change in trend, but don't always lead to immediate reversals. Rallies or decline can continue for weeks/months before a technical trigger is generated (chart 1). For example, once bonds generated a stron > read more

Numbers or Percentages Don't Create Vulnerable Markets

08/11/2014 15:05:00 PM

--->Dividend yields, a tradition measure of 'valuation', is only one of many factors influence capital flows. Besides, it's not a number or percentage that makes stocks 'expensive' or 'cheap' but rather concentration of capital over time. When DY(n > read more

69% of Americans, Thinking They're Doing The Right Thing, Primed For Rude Awakening

08/11/2014 07:33:00 AM

---> Americans with retirement savings, guesstimated at 69%, are also heavily exposed to US Treasury and sovereign bonds. When these instruments which the vast majority see as rock solid investments despite lessons from history start to fail - firs > read more

Review of US Stocks

08/11/2014 07:14:00 AM

---> Stocks have been testing 7/10 swing support throughout August. Volume, though moderately heavy, has contracted steadily during the testing process. > read more

Review of Crude Oil

08/11/2014 07:00:00 AM

Bearish setups of March 2011, September 2013, and June 2014 have halted crude oil's rally from 105 to 108 (chart 1 and 2). > read more

Review of Lumber

08/09/2014 07:15:00 AM

Lumber, defying faltering housing and slowing economy headlines, has defied bearish expectations. The bears, some citing the recent jump as the rally before the big decline, are they're unlikely to recognize lumber's technical change of trend in Jul > read more

Diffusion Charts Updated 08/05/14

08/09/2014 06:34:00 AM

--->DI Charts > read more

COT Matrix Updated 08/05/14

08/09/2014 06:00:00 AM

--->COT Matrix COT Matrix 07/29/14 ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2014. This > read more

Long Term Charts Updating

08/08/2014 07:34:00 AM

---> Updated Through July 2014 Composite Timing Indicator Long Term Equity Charts Long Term Bond Charts Long Term Commodity Charts Gold to Silver Ratio Seasonality ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights > read more

Review of US Stocks

08/08/2014 07:05:00 AM

---> REV(E), a timing tool that measures trend energy, has generated near-term lows price holds support. > read more

Economic Sanctions Following a Road That Leads Nowhere

08/08/2014 07:00:00 AM

--->Japan could be signalling that wholesale and non-negotiable sanctions against Russia threatens not only a local trading partner but also the global economy. Tit-for-tat sanctions (1,2,3), posturing through edicts or laws rather than private neg > read more

Review of Commodities

08/07/2014 10:36:00 AM

--->Few recognize that bullish phases in lumber and copper as potentially leading a commodity rally into 2015. The headlines will turn bullish only when subtle hints turn into a Mack truck that runs over the majority. -------------------------- > read more

Review of Sentiment

08/07/2014 07:03:00 AM

--->Albert Einstein, expanding on James Maxwell's theory of electromagnetism, proposed that the speed of light traveling through a vacuum was constant in 1905. If Einstein studied the financial markets, he would have likely postulated that sentiment > read more

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