Blog Feed: Eric De Groot's Insights

Chart: US Treasury Bonds ETF (TLT) Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors

The Stock Market Rally That Won't Quit

Published on 2013-05-20 07:00:00

Chart Observations: Trend is up (green/blue) chart 1 Intermarket analysis confirms the highs chart 2 Chart1: SP 500 Chart2: Mid term to Short Term VIX Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a

COT Review of Corn

Published on 2013-05-18 09:32:00

Corn bulls are waiting for an entry point. Chart 1: Corn ETN (CORN) Don't fall asleep in the process...behind the scenes money flows are beginning to reveal concentration and polarization. Show ---------------------------------

Technical Review of Gold

Published on 2013-05-18 07:00:00

Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2013. This analysis will be reveale

Operation Bagholder In Gold and Silver

Published on 2013-05-18 07:00:00

Luxury To Subsistence Living Trend

Published on 2013-05-17 08:52:00

As long as the luxury to subsistence living trend (Tiffany to Wal-Mart ratio) is rising, its a favorable backdrop for the stock market. Chart: Tiffany to Wal-Mart Ratio Headline: Wal-Mart Sales Go Cold, and Its Shares Feel the Chill De

Falling Sentiment Towards Stocks As They Rally

Published on 2013-05-17 07:00:00

---> Sentiment is one aspect of market timing that consists of simultaneous analysis of economic data, leveraged money flows, Intermarket trends, and TIME. I have been singling out sentiment lately, because it explains why most investors will be s

U.S. jobless claims jump to six-week high

Published on 2013-05-17 07:00:00

---> No significant changes in the trends below. Chart: SP 500 (SP500AVG), Average Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (AWIC) and AWIC Cycle Z Scores (AWICC1and2) Headline: U.S. jobless claims jump to six-week high WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)

The Bail-In Policy Placing All Deposits At Risk

Published on 2013-05-17 07:00:00

---> Capital adapts to changes in policies or tactics. This means deposits less than 100,000, deemed sacrosanct today, are more likely to be touchable at the next major bank failure. The public, however, remains generally oblivious to the deposit r

COT and Technical Review of The Canadian Dollar

Published on 2013-05-16 10:52:00

COT Review The Canadian dollar's DI has dropped as it rallied from 97.82 to 99.01 as of 5/7. As long as the loonie's DI remains above 60%, it maintains the bullish setup. Chart: Canadian Dollar (FXC) And Canadian Dollar Diffusion Index (DI)

Europe Falling Into Recession

Published on 2013-05-16 07:00:00

Europe driven by policies of austerity is slowly entering a recession that could easily turn into a depression. This growing possibility will be met with denial, which will ultimately turn into panic if changes are not made soon. Capital, seekin

Is Gasoline RBOB Ready?

Published on 2013-05-16 07:00:00

A powerful bullish setup was generated in Gasoline on April 30th. Chart:

Technical Review of the Gold Shares

Published on 2013-05-15 08:05:00

Topics: Gold stocks money flows:

Shorts Likely Attending Group Therapy Now

Published on 2013-05-15 07:00:00

--->Forget the Fed, this rally is controlled by global capital flows. It will likely continue to the point of extreme concentration (chart 1)* and bullish sentiment (chart 2). Chart 1: Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index (LCSCAI), LCSCAI

Afternoon Look at US Treasury Bonds

Published on 2013-05-14 15:05:00

---> While today's decline doesn't quite pronounce the bond rally as dead, it certainly places a couple of nails into its coffin.

Retail sales gain shows some strength in economy

Published on 2013-05-14 09:06:00

---> Selling stocks based on retail sales trends and cycles can be a frustrating exercise.

Technical Review of the U.S. Dollar

Published on 2013-05-14 07:00:00

---> Chart Observations: Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2013

COT and Technical Review of US Long Bonds

Published on 2013-05-14 07:00:00

Privacy Only For Mountain Men

Published on 2013-05-13 09:59:00

Digital snooping from Wall Street to Main Street is a lot more pervasive than Americans and global citizens realize. Alex Rose once wrote, Welcome to the Jungle! It’s an information jungle where only Mountain Men living off the grid enjoy true pr

Retail Stocks Continue to Lead

Published on 2013-05-13 08:48:00

---> Chart Observations: Retail stocks represent a key leadership group for stocks and consumption driven economies.

Follow Up On Copper

Published on 2013-05-13 07:00:00

Easy sell right? For now, yes, but as long as the boys (green) continue to buy weakness, setting up the 'dumb money' (dark red) or sellers of weakness the downtrend hides intention to reduce short position and create a new group of copper bag hol

Review of Lumber, Three Months Later

Published on 2013-05-11 10:00:00

While the rally from the lows has been impressive, it still does not suggest an inflection in the trend. The pattern of lower highs and lows remains undisturbed since 2006. Despite some bullish prediction for housing, intense outflows by connected mo

COT and Technical Review of Gold

Published on 2013-05-11 08:00:00

Greek youth unemployment over 60 percent in February

Published on 2013-05-11 07:01:00

---> Chronic unemployment and underemployment, currently plaguing the periphery economies of southern Europe, will migrate to the core - economies of northern Europe and United States and force significant political and social changes. Headline:

US Federal Budget Maintains Counter-Trend Rally

Published on 2013-05-11 07:00:00

---> Capital returning to the safety of the core economy (US dollar) will continue diversifying into US equities as long as the US Federal budget counter trend rally lasts (chart 1 and 2).

Technical Review of US Treasury Bonds

Published on 2013-05-10 09:22:00

---> Chart Observations: As long as HighOsc and LowOsc > 0 (positive), the uptrend in bonds remains in tact (chart 1). If the LowOsc < 0 (turns negative), the trend changes from up to down. Consolidation within the up trend began in early May

Technical Review of The U.S. Dollar Index

Published on 2013-05-10 08:05:00

Chart Observations: Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2013. Thi

Capital Is Fleeing As The Probability of Widespread Bail-Ins Increases

Published on 2013-05-10 07:40:00

---> Capital fleeing an increasing probability of widespread, standardized bail-ins is leaving from not only Europe but also Japan. As the flight of capital from the Ruble preceded the Russian financial crisis in 1998, it will also lead both the Eur

The Crowd Is Never Right

Published on 2013-05-10 07:00:00

---> Chart Observations: The crowd, the majority driving a trend, also known as

U.S. Dollar Index and Gold

Published on 2013-05-10 07:00:00

---> Chart Observations: I am often asked if the gold market is manipulated, managed, or controlled?

Part-timers' hours cut as employers react to healthcare law

Published on 2013-05-09 16:01:00

---> Cutting part-timers hours to avoid paying benefits to employees working over 30 hours a week is gaining popularity across the United States. California's legislative response to this trend

Trend Energy Breakout Says NYSE Composite Breakout Coming

Published on 2013-05-09 08:07:00

---> Chart: NYSE Composite and Trend Energy ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight don

Breadth Confirms The Stock Market Rally

Published on 2013-05-09 07:59:00

---> NetHL%, a measure of net 52-week highs adjusted for issues traded on the NYSE or participation behind the trend, has generated a relative new high.

Timing Stocks

Published on 2013-05-09 07:05:00

Only the message of the market can be used to 'time' stocks. Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will b

Technical Review of the Gold Stocks

Published on 2013-05-09 07:00:00

Chart: Amex Gold Bugs - HUEY Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2

One Chart Is Not The Message of the Market

Published on 2013-05-08 12:35:00

---> Thanks for the comments, Jeff. The technical review of the Dow Industrials suggested nothing more than 160 (16,000) as one indication of upside exhaustion. Point and figure analysis, a filtration of daily trading noise, is the study of prim

Technical Review of Dow Industrials

Published on 2013-05-08 09:26:00

Technical Review of Dow

Gold to Silver Ratio Reveals Falling Risk Appetite

Published on 2013-05-08 08:25:00

The gold to silver ratio (GSR), often cited as a relative pricing tool for silver or gold, is better used as a measure of risk appetite within the financial system. The GSR which broke above its July 2012 high in April remains in an up trend (char

Concentration and Euphoria Generate Flash Crashes

Published on 2013-05-08 07:00:00

---> The stock market closes at all time highs. Despite a clear message nearly a month ago (Group Therapy Ahead For The Crowd Bearish On Stocks), most investors remain skeptical of the equity rally. This suggests even higher prices. Stocks te

Technical Review of US Treasury Bonds

Published on 2013-05-07 10:02:00

Discussion Topics: Traders/Investors Establishing the Long- and Intermediate-term Trends

Sowing The Seeds Of The Next Economic Downturn

Published on 2013-05-07 08:59:00

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), representing 71% of gross domestic product today, is the primary driver of economic growth in the United States (chart).

COT and Technical Look at Corn

Published on 2013-05-07 07:00:00

For example the 2012 corn rally setup as follows: Leveraged capital concentrated from late 2011 to May 2012 as CORN declined. TA trigger generated June 2012 around 40 Capital concentrated on the opposite side of the trade CORN rallied from 40 to 50

Is Natural Gas Ready?

Published on 2013-05-07 06:00:00

Is Natural Gas a buy or sell? COT Review Technical Review Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will b

U.S. Dollar Index and Gold

Published on 2013-05-06 11:27:00

U.S. traders cannot ignore the inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar index and gold.

Waiting For Gold Tests Patience

Published on 2013-05-06 07:56:00

Last week I suggested that the gold market would likely be pushed into position by certain players. Chart 1 Observations: "The boys want to be here" box (green) implied a distribution that would favor the onset of a rally. The arrow suggested

Watch for Upside Concentration Real Durable Goods As A Warning

Published on 2013-05-06 07:05:00

The global economy, neither running too hot or cold, will likely display upside concentration (>1.96) in the real, inflation adjusted durable goods trend ahead of the 2015-2017 contraction.

Timing Gold, Silver, and Stocks Is Recognition of Concentration and Cycles

Published on 2013-05-05 08:29:00

Gold Chart 1:

New Rule Signals Kiss of Death for Pensions

Published on 2013-05-04 09:49:00

The pensioner will be thrown under the bus in the name of corporate profitability. Those living off pensions will suffer huge reductions in standard of livings by 2017. Moving Ahead for Progress (MAP-21) ensures that by: In essence, MAP-21 lets

Technical and Leveraged Money Flow Review of Silver

Published on 2013-05-04 09:36:00

Topics: Technical setup Leveraged money trigger a setup Show More ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis w

Canadian Dollar Trade Maturing As Another Powerful Setup Emerges

Published on 2013-05-04 07:00:00

Readers patiently waiting on gold, which is displaying some interesting changes, might be looking for positive or negative concentration in other markets. For example the bullish setup in the Canadian dollar, displayed in late March and still exists

Morning Review of US Treasury Bonds

Published on 2013-05-03 09:32:00

Does today's decline in US long bonds, tumbling lower as a result of a better than expected labor report, negate April's up trend? Show more ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, ad

Labor Market Review

Published on 2013-05-03 08:21:00

---> Labor Market Summary: An up tick in the JCH was generated by an increase in service producing jobs (chart 1 and 2). The 2012-2014 transition (from job creation to destruction) should follow the 2005-2007's setup (chart 1).

How Long Will Investors Buy The Dips In Stocks?

Published on 2013-05-03 07:00:00

Investors will buy the the dips as long as trend energy REV2(E) leads the stock market higher (chart 1) Chart 1: NYSE Composite and Trend Energy But how much longer will they buy the dips? Show -----------------------------------

A Technical Review of Gold

Published on 2013-05-02 20:00:00

Chart: Gold ETF (GLD) Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2013.

Follow Global Capital Flows

Published on 2013-05-02 10:26:00

ECB cuts rates to provide more liquidity to struggling European, including German, banks. The flow of capital continues to reflect a slow but steady transition from risk-on to risk-off across the globe (chart 1 and 2).

Jobless claims fall, point to improving job market

Published on 2013-05-02 08:15:00

The window of opportunity on the economic expansion (and stocks) starts to close as AWICC1 and AWICC2 fall towards concentration of the red box (chart). Chart: S&P 500 (SP500AVG), Average Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (AWIC) and AWIC Cycle Z Scor

Review of the Canadian Dollar

Published on 2013-05-02 07:00:00

Extremes in distribution and concentration suggest a market ready to rally. There's a big difference between a market ready to rally and rallying market. Rallies need chasers. Chasers rarely chase without TA-driven buy or sell signal. Chart:

Builders hold lotteries for eager new homebuyers

Published on 2013-05-02 07:00:00

---> Bob sent this headline to warn us that "only fools rush in where angels fear to tread."

Mid Session Look at US Long Bonds

Published on 2013-05-01 12:17:00

Transition from

Technical Review of Silver

Published on 2013-05-01 07:14:00

---> Silver Trend: Green/blue = UP Red/Yellow = DOWN Chart: Silver ETF (SLV) ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and inter

Retail Stocks

Published on 2013-05-01 07:09:00

A stock market in rally mode tends to be lead and confirmed by higher highs in retail stocks. As a result, they are a key leadership sector in the US. How are retail stocks doing? Show ------------------------------------- As a spec

COT Review of U.S. Dollar Index

Published on 2013-05-01 07:00:00

The U.S. dollar index has oscillated within a trading range (70-90) since early 2008.

US Stocks The Teflon Bull

Published on 2013-04-30 14:43:00

As long as every bearish argument is deflected by stock’s Teflon coating, morning sell-offs will be followed by afternoon rallies This coating, however, isn't

Media blackout on Cyprus Grab

Published on 2013-04-30 07:53:00

Jim talks about

Love Turning Into Hate For Copper

Published on 2013-04-30 07:00:00

Last week I proposed that following for copper: The 'boys' (green), buying weakness are setting up the 'dumb money' (dark red), selling weakness, as the bag holders. These two time series will split in direction towards opposite extremes.

Technical Review of Silver

Published on 2013-04-30 07:00:00

The technical setup of silver is similar to that of gold

California lawmakers weigh first statewide ban on lead ammo

Published on 2013-04-29 07:31:00

If guns can't be banned, then maybe the ammo will be. Headline: California lawmakers weigh first statewide ban on lead ammo SACRAMENTO, Calif. – In November, one of the oldest condors in Central California died from lead poisoning after b

Technical Look At Stocks

Published on 2013-04-29 07:00:00

Are US stocks vulnerable to a correction at current levels? Topic Magnitude Duration Sentiment TIME Chart 1: NYA Composite Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insi

Bank of Cyprus converts portion of uninsured savings to equity

Published on 2013-04-28 20:00:00

---> Politicians unable to support another $700 billion bailout without wide-spread social consequences have adopted 'bail-in' solution as means to maintain the status quo. Capital, however, will only get burned once. Adaptation and anticipation wil

Investment Discipline Without Bias

Published on 2013-04-28 08:47:00

Investment discipline views capital flows, markets, and/or securities without bias and opinion. The security below reveals significant selling and technical damage after 4/12 (chart 1). Chart 1:

Fading Crowd Behavior in US Treasury Bonds

Published on 2013-04-27 09:46:00

About a month ago

Operation Bag holder Continues In Gold and Silver

Published on 2013-04-27 07:00:00

Operation bag holder in gold and silver: Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight d

Is Gold Ready to Rally?

Published on 2013-04-27 06:30:00

Is gold ready to rally? Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2013.

Technical Review of Gold

Published on 2013-04-27 06:00:00

---> Chart:

US Economic Growth Struggling

Published on 2013-04-26 09:18:00

---> US economic growth continues to struggle at the margin.

Junior Gold Shares Relationship With Gold

Published on 2013-04-26 08:06:00

Topics: Junior gold miners as a proxy for risk appetite. Intermarket relationship between Junior gold mining shares and gold. Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights suppor

Technical Review of US Treasury Bonds

Published on 2013-04-26 07:38:00

America's engine of the future to get 'Made in China' label

Published on 2013-04-26 07:00:00

--->'Designed in but manufactured outside the USA' label has turned the US from the goods-producing to service-producing envy of the world. Service-producing jobs, however, tend to maintain a lower standard of living for society. As a result, an in

Technical Review of Gold - Morning Update

Published on 2013-04-25 10:10:00

Morning Update Investment decision-making must be void of fear and greed. The Bernoulli Effect on Price Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additi

Orders For Durable Goods Show Deterioration But Not Concentrated

Published on 2013-04-25 08:48:00

Following trend 'noise', month-to-month changes, reveals nothing about direction and magnitude of the intermediate and long-term trends. Statistical concentration, both up and down, suggests an unsustainable trend. While unsustainable trends can

Few Corn Bulls Left

Published on 2013-04-25 08:00:00

Last summer the drought cut yields and forced herd reductions.

Technical Review of Gold Shares

Published on 2013-04-25 07:00:00

Topics: Trend Direction and Triggers Visualization (Quantifying) of Support and Resistance Long-Term Timing Perspective Risk Appetite In Precious Metals Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a special tha

Technical Review of Silver

Published on 2013-04-24 08:19:00

Topics: Trend Direction and Triggers Visualization (Quantifying) of Support and Resistance Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driv

Technical Review of Gold

Published on 2013-04-24 08:09:00

China manufacturing expansion slows

Published on 2013-04-24 07:00:00

China, the growth engine of the world, has been underperforming the US since 2010.

Who Doesn't Hate Copper?

Published on 2013-04-24 07:00:00

Last week I suggest that "Soon Everyone Will 'Hate' Copper".

Is Selling Gold To Buy US Stocks A High Probability Trade?

Published on 2013-04-23 15:59:00

Here's the chart Chart: Gold to SP 500 Ratio ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight

Goldman Sachs Covering Its Gold Short

Published on 2013-04-23 12:04:00

Anyone

The Plateau of Prosperity Illusion To Be Smashed By 2016

Published on 2013-04-23 07:00:00

It won't be long before rising stock prices will introduce and reintroduce millions to the concept of a permanently

Wealth Flees Switzerland for Shelter in Singapore

Published on 2013-04-23 07:00:00

---> Watch Singapore grow. Headline: Wealth Flees Switzerland for Shelter in Singapore Thanks in part to its generous tax regime, Singapore has been a millionaire haven for years. But a new report says the tiny island state may soon overtake

Bond, Gold, Silver Chart Updates

Published on 2013-04-22 20:00:00

Chart 1: US Long Bonds (TLT) Gold and Silver Updates Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be

Recognizing Economic Deterioration

Published on 2013-04-22 12:48:00

---> Timing vulnerability in stocks lies in one's ability to recognize economic deterioration. Jim may have carried the crazy label since 1968, but if crazy observes, An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is fallin

Silver's Weak Hands Cleared From Open Ground

Published on 2013-04-22 07:00:00

I suggested weeks ago that silver's weak hands standing in open ground were vulnerable to sniper fire from the surrounding hills.

Surge In Open Interest Related To Spreading and Options Activity

Published on 2013-04-21 19:20:00

---> If you don't follow Dan Norcini,

Are US Stocks Vulnerable?

Published on 2013-04-21 18:00:00

Is the SP 500 vulnerable at 1555? One of my favorite risk on/off tools says... Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and inter

Natty G (Natural Gas) Is Back

Published on 2013-04-20 14:05:00

A bone crushing decline since 2008 means there's not many natural gas (natty G) bulls out there.

Significant Changes In Paper Gold Market

Published on 2013-04-20 08:41:00

The orchestrated chaos has spread the commercials and retail traders to polar extremes in gold. This rare and highly bullish setup, realized only six times since 2001, reflects a market 'controlled' by the strong hands;

An Important Change in the Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR)

Published on 2013-04-19 10:00:00

The gold to silver ratio (GSR), often cited as a relative price tool for silver or gold, is better used as a measure of risk appetite within the financial system. Chart: Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR) Show -----------------------------------

Technical Look At Gold

Published on 2013-04-19 09:13:00

How far is extreme? Chart: Gold ETF (GLD) Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to In

Troublesome Trends in US Loan 'Growth'

Published on 2013-04-19 08:43:00

Loan growth in the US: Anemic despite official pressure to lend. Total loans, 72.8% of total bank credit (TBC), remains only a few ticks above its low of 72.5% Real estate loans, 35.5% of TBC, despite the hype and policy support continues its ste

A Study of Gold Stock Cycles

Published on 2013-04-19 07:00:00

A study of gold stock cycles, trends and concentration, helps 'time' rallies and declines within the secular bull market. Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters,

Trend From Paper To Physical Gold Cannot Be Reversed By Intervention

Published on 2013-04-18 12:58:00

Eric, ---> There is no question except in the mind of the deranged bashers that the physical demand for gold threatened the fractional gold system to which a Fed sponsored raid took place. What they are missing is that it is not price that thre

The Great Train Robbery Has Extended The Illusion

Published on 2013-04-18 09:33:00

The Great Train Robbery, conceived in 1903 and flawless executed in 2013 in the heart and minds of most gold investors, has many wondering if gold shares will ever recover.

The Crux Of The Problem In Gold

Published on 2013-04-18 07:40:00

While extreme price volatility has likely relieve some of the pressure between the illusion of supply and real physical demand, its short-term influence, like all previous operations will pass.

Soon Everyone Will 'Hate' Copper

Published on 2013-04-18 07:00:00

Investors fear the return of risk-off and deflation and following the headlines are selling copper. Copper's money flow setup and technicals, however, turned bearish

Crowding Starting To Like Bonds Again

Published on 2013-04-18 06:00:00

The composite bond diffusion index, a representation of the leverage money flows within the Treasury yield curve, provides a unique look at the ebb and flo of risk within a decaying financial empire.

Insight Content Key

Published on 2013-04-17 15:08:00

As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2013.

Watching US Long Bonds

Published on 2013-04-17 10:29:00

---> Remember when everyone hated bonds (1,2)?

Yields Spreads and Timing Stocks

Published on 2013-04-17 09:00:00

Follow yield spreads to time stocks... Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be

Stocks Up, Volatility Down, But Sentiment Is Negative?

Published on 2013-04-17 07:00:00

Stock market tops form when investors sentiment (towards stocks) is near or setting all-time highs.

IMF cuts global growth forecast

Published on 2013-04-17 07:00:00

Enormous debt burdens and slow growth have challenged

Watching Swiss Franc

Published on 2013-04-16 14:21:00

---> Commentary:

US Long Bonds Bullish Or Bearish?

Published on 2013-04-16 09:42:00

Long Bond Observations: Strong accumulation of bonds until February 2013 A few indicators generating short and intermediate term ta triggers. Investors nervous about stocks, gold, and commodities Should investors chase bonds at current prices

Technical Look at Silver

Published on 2013-04-16 07:05:00

Further Analysis Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2013. This

Are US Stocks Vulnerable?

Published on 2013-04-16 07:00:00

---> The message of the market says... Concentrated negative sentiment

Technical Look At Gold

Published on 2013-04-16 07:00:00

Those acting on emotion rather than discipline become the bag holders. Further Analysis: Show ------------------------------------- As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, a

Insight Decryption Key

Published on 2013-04-15 18:00:00

As a special thanks to the loyal Insights supporters, additional, market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis will be provided to Insight donors in 2013.

Stragglers Removed From Open Ground in Gold and Silver

Published on 2013-04-15 09:53:00

Gold and silver are pressing into and towards extreme zones will alarming speed and efficiency as the 'boys' remove the stragglers from open ground. Chart 1: Gold, London P.M. Fixed (Gold) and Cycle Z Scores (GOLDC1 & GOLDC2) Silver, London P.

The Investment World Starting To Fall In Love With Bonds Again

Published on 2013-04-15 08:12:00

Chart 1:

Rising Demand and Falling Supply in Precious Metals

Published on 2013-04-15 07:18:00

According to Rio Tinto’s VP of Marketing Vania Grandi, Kennecott produces up to 5 million ounces of silver, and 1/2 million ounces of gold annually: “We produce about 3 (million) to 5 million ounces of silver a year and 300,000 to 500,000 ounc

Market Forces Chipping Away At Swiss Franc Peg

Published on 2013-04-15 07:00:00

Market forces keep chipping away at the Swiss franc's Euro peg.

Paper Gold Is The Managers' Market

Published on 2013-04-14 16:00:00

Show ------------------------------------- Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle donations. Thank you for your contribution. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other

Accumulation of Canadian Dollar Continues

Published on 2013-04-14 08:37:00

Flight of capital from Japan via carry trades is sending money in a frantic search for yield across the globe.

Another Decline in Consumer Expectations Will Help Push The Chinese Off The Fence

Published on 2013-04-14 07:00:00

Consumer expectations (CE) broke its up trend in January of 2013.

Natural Gas Rally Has Bulls Excited

Published on 2013-04-13 09:05:00

The rally in natural gas (NG) has the bulls excited again.

How the Insights Decryption Key Works

Published on 2013-04-13 07:01:00

Example of how the decryption key works: Click Show (below). Enter Decryption Key. Restricted Content Revealed. cool is the decrypt key for this example All markets are controlled by Show Please consult the Decrypt Key page: Acq

Technical Look At Silver

Published on 2013-04-12 18:52:00

The silver bashers will be running wild this weekend.

Objective Technical Look At Gold

Published on 2013-04-12 12:04:00

Turn off MSM, take objective TA-based look at gold, then go for a walk. Charts: Show ------------------------------------- Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle donations. Thank you for your contribu

What Does Blood In The Streets Look Like?

Published on 2013-04-12 09:40:00

Colt may have made all men equal, but

Follow the Message of the Market, Not Opinion

Published on 2013-04-12 08:45:00

Chart: US Long Bonds ETF (TLT): Show Comments The message of the market should concern the bond bears.

Silver's Lagging DI Hides Something

Published on 2013-04-12 07:50:00

A falling DI doesn't suggest a bearish undertone for silver. Show ------------------------------------- Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle donations. Thank you for your contribution. [[ This is

New Restricted Content Password

Published on 2013-04-12 07:29:00

I am working on provide open and restricted content that utilizes the RSS, ATOM, and email feeds that maintain automated updates for readers.

Restricted Content Posts

Published on 2013-04-11 19:59:00

I will be testing restricted content ideas over the next few days. Please excuse the experimentation and feel free to comment. Restricted content posts can be accessed with login UserID and Password with no space between. Eric -----------

Silver's Lagging DI Hides Something

Published on 2013-04-11 19:44:00

Show Restricted Post ------------------------------------- Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle donations. Thank you for your contribution. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full

Group Therapy Ahead For The Crowd Bearish On Stocks

Published on 2013-04-11 10:35:00

The crowd, also known as Wall Street’s bagholders, despite constant praise from MSM as investment heroes tends to be lousy investors. As chasers of strength and weakness, they're often seen huddling together in group therapy after a thorough beati

Shades of 1976 in Gold and Silver?

Published on 2013-04-11 07:00:00

How does 2013 sell-off in gold and silver compare to 1976? Chart 1: Gold, London P.M. Fixed (Gold) and Cycle Z Scores (GOLDC1 & GOLDC2) Silver, further along than gold, should bottom first. Chart 2: Silver, London P.M. Fixed (Silver) a

Federal Budget Deficit Shrinks in March from Year Prior

Published on 2013-04-11 07:00:00

The path of least resistance is up at least for a little while longer. Chart 1:

House backs privately minted coins as legal tender

Published on 2013-04-11 07:00:00

State versus federal rights debate is a slippery slope.

Gold Is Misdirection

Published on 2013-04-10 12:23:00

The boys need out and need weakness to hide their intentions.

Special Thanks To Insights's Loyal Supporters

Published on 2013-04-10 11:48:00

As a special thanks Insight's loyal supporters, I will provide periodic trend updates to the gold and silver market to anyone that donates $100 or more in 2013. Access:

Accumulation Of British Pound

Published on 2013-04-10 07:00:00

A head and shoulders breakout generated under a bullish setup.

Timing The Risk On/Off Trade

Published on 2013-04-10 07:00:00

Follow transportation and retail stocks to time the risk on/off trade.

Disability Fund to Be Depleted by 2016

Published on 2013-04-09 16:06:00

With more Americans receiving disability rather than working jobs that fail to achieve subsistence level standard of living, the depletion of the disability fund by 2016 is a major concern. Do we raise taxes, reduces payouts and incur the social wra

Stocks Tend To Crash When Capital Concentrates

Published on 2013-04-09 07:00:00

The probability of stock crashing jumps dramatically when capital concentrates into the crash (red) and crash & burn zones (dark red) around major cycle dates (chart 1 and 2).

Attracting Hot Money Tends to Wreak Financial Havoc Later

Published on 2013-04-08 14:11:00

This move would kill two birds with one stone. This move not only provides "hot money" fleeing the consequences of the Sovereign debt crisis abroad another US-based option, but it also supports an ailing real estate market. The real estate market i

UniCredit Says Global Rule Needed to Bail In Big Deposits

Published on 2013-04-08 07:00:00

Easy.

Nearly Bearish Setup in Natural Gas Favors Continuation Rather Than Change of Trend

Published on 2013-04-08 07:00:00

Goldman raised its 2013 natural gas (NG) forecast recently.

Silver As The Trigger Nearly Ready

Published on 2013-04-06 19:27:00

You must now act to exit the system

The Message of the Market Is Changing

Published on 2013-04-06 08:47:00

Economic disappointment extends well beyond the jobs report, but unfortunately, most Americans fail to recognize events

Weak job gains cast shadow on U.S. economic outlook

Published on 2013-04-05 08:48:00

The labor report, certainly a shock to MSM, shouldn't surprise Insight readers.

Market Often Talks The Most When Its Clear Nobody's Listening

Published on 2013-04-04 13:41:00

If $1531 fails to hold has support, the current slide in gold will be adjusted to show a

Fighting Fire With Fire Produces Godzilla-Like Outcomes

Published on 2013-04-04 09:34:00

While "fighting fire with fire" (fighting crippling, historic, and failing debt burdens with unprecedented currency devaluation and stimulus - $1.4 stimulus announced today by Japan) extinguishes oil well fires with ease, it tends to produce Godzilla

The Gold Era Is NOT Over!

Published on 2013-04-04 07:59:00

Those that follow headline BS rather than the message of the market will have the pockets picked. We've seen this headline before, but once again, the Gold Era Is NOT over. While the headline maximize fear with disinformation, such as the Gold Er

'Safe Haven' Currency Inflows

Published on 2013-04-04 07:00:00

Money flows into the British Pound (BP) tend to be defensive.

Trading Precious Metals Requires Confirmation

Published on 2013-04-03 11:24:00

Buying or selling precious metals (or any other market) with leverage based on primary or secondary setups*

Heating Oil

Published on 2013-04-03 07:00:00

A bullish setup and cold spring in many parts of the US could translate into an upside breakout for heating oil. Chart: Heating Oil (UHN) And Heating Oil Diffusion Index (DI) ------------------------------------- The open forum mo

Judge rules Stockton, Calif., to enter bankruptcy

Published on 2013-04-02 15:22:00

What happens when the economic cycles turn down?

Silver's Weak Hands Standing In Open Ground

Published on 2013-04-02 08:17:00

While silver's not dead in the water, it could be vulnerable over the short-term.

Real Economic Growth Weak

Published on 2013-04-02 08:00:00

Real economic growth is weak.

Public Pensioners Under Attack

Published on 2013-04-02 07:02:00

Promises from federal, state, and local governments will be broken as the debt crisis worsens. Inevitability, investments in institutions run by professional politicians provide poor, relative returns over the long-run. Investors are about to learn

Change In Euro Trend

Published on 2013-04-02 07:00:00

The Euro has broken its up trend.

Anastasiades requests investigation into allegations against family members

Published on 2013-04-01 14:59:00

In a stroke of extremely good luck, rarely seen even by master traders, the in-laws of the President of Cyprus may have wired millions of dollar to London before deposits were frozen. Headline: Anastasiades requests investigation into allegation

Why Is Silver So Reluctant To Rally

Published on 2013-04-01 10:22:00

Why won't silver rally despite growing number of bullish setups? As long as the intermediate trend remains down (since 2011), not many traders are willing to catch a falling knife. Silver's concentration index (CI) has yet to produce another buy

Significant Reduction in Paper Shorts As Silver Declines

Published on 2013-04-01 07:44:00

Net long position as % of open interest (NL%OI) continues to climb as price falls.

Swiss Franc Euro Peg Will Fail

Published on 2013-04-01 07:04:00

The Swiss National Bank stunned the trading world in 2011 by devaluing the franc through a pledge to buy "unlimited quantities" of foreign currencies to force down its value as Switzerland became a "safe haven" from the ravages of the eurozone crisis

Massive Accumulation of the Canadian Dollar

Published on 2013-03-30 08:43:00

The invisible hand likes the Canadian dollar (loonie). The loonie's DI, a measure of accumulation/distribution in the futures and options market,

Slovenia’s New Cabinet Under Pressure to Avoid Cyprus Fate

Published on 2013-03-30 07:00:00

Next! Move over Cyprus, here comes Slovenia. Headline: Slovenia’s New Cabinet Under Pressure to Avoid Cyprus Fate Slovenia’s six-day-old government is being urged to prevent the nation becoming the euro region’s next bailout battlegr

Follow the Trend In Initial Jobless Claim to Time Equities

Published on 2013-03-29 11:24:00

Traders attempting to time the stock market should follow the trend in monthly jobless claims, not the noise of weekly data.

Putin orders surprise Russian military exercise in Black Sea

Published on 2013-03-28 14:34:00

While most if not all Russian money fled Cyprus under the misdirection of panic, today's surprise military

Real Estate To Turn Non-Believers Into Believers Before Wiping Them Out

Published on 2013-03-28 08:03:00

Why not? The government provides a liquidity floor supported by the masses. The masses, already influenced by the 'housing scarcity campaign', will be chasing real estate with the same critical eye displayed in 2005. The 2013-2015 setup, similar t

Housing Scarcity Campaign Coming Soon To All Cities In America

Published on 2013-03-28 07:38:00

The 'housing scarcity campaign'

Insider buying of gold stocks surges to multi-year highs

Published on 2013-03-28 07:00:00

Everyone hates the gold shares, except a growing number of insiders.

The Secular Bull Market In Precious Metals Needs Bag Holders

Published on 2013-03-28 07:00:00

The bank's attempt at reassurance by saying their "investments in", not physical holdings of, precious metals remain safe probably left more than a few customers with an uneasy feeling.

Strong Move To Scare Big Money Out Of “Too Big To Fail” Banks

Published on 2013-03-27 20:37:00

A move to chase big money out of banks makes sense.

Catching A Falling Knife in Greece

Published on 2013-03-27 09:07:00

Catching falling knives is dangerous tactic in the investment world (chart 1). What is this telling us about Cyprus, Spain, Italy, and eventually the US? Chart 1: FTSE Greece 20 (ETF) The invisible hand setting up markets ahead of

Patience or Impatience in Gold & Silver

Published on 2013-03-27 08:20:00

Bullish money flows for gold (Gold's DI, options) and silver (Silver's DI - still lagging gold, options), don't mean a lot without a technical buy or sell trigger. Momentum Trigger:

Equities Continue Climbing the Wall of Worry

Published on 2013-03-27 07:00:00

Infinite QE means the market will continue climbing the wall of worry until sentiment extreme is reached during a cycle peak. Chart: S&P 500 And American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey Bulls As % of Bulls and Bears Sigma

Lower Dollar Will Be Driven By Market Forces

Published on 2013-03-27 07:00:00

The trading and currency deals between the BRIC nations are dollar negative over the long-term.

Stores Charges Customers $5 'Just Looking' Fee to Combat Showrooming

Published on 2013-03-26 14:52:00

A $5 for 'just looking fee' to review deposit balances at a troubled European bank.

Decision-Making Requires One Voice and Message

Published on 2013-03-26 11:37:00

Outside my trading connections, secular, intermarket, and leveraged money flow trends, each driven by market forces over the long-term, or what I often describe as the message of the market, represent the foundation of intelligence gathering for inve

American Dream Is Back But Nothing Has Changed

Published on 2013-03-26 09:07:00

The American Dream based on the illusion of easy money is back.

Cyprus banks remain closed to avert run on deposits

Published on 2013-03-26 07:00:00

The Troika can't have everyone acting rationally in an irrational manner all at once.

Bullish Money Flows In Precious Metals Options

Published on 2013-03-26 07:00:00

The options market displaying a rare bullish setup for not only silver but also gold. Chart: Gold London P.M Fixed and the Commercial Less NonreportablesTraders COT Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest --

Follow Greece

Published on 2013-03-25 12:04:00

If confiscation becomes the standard for Europe, it will show up in Greece first. Chart: FTSE Greece 20 Headline: Wall Street falls after Cyprus deal called model solution NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell on Monday as initial optimism

Russian PM lambasts deal to rescue Cyprus

Published on 2013-03-25 08:11:00

Losses on many bank deposits through the mechanism of a bail-in have redefined depositors as lenders to the bank. As such, depositors will be recognized as potential contributors to the solvency of the bank under conditions of stress. Confiscati

Possibly The Most Important Money Flow of 2013 Silver Market

Published on 2013-03-24 08:50:00

Silver is a game; a game that defines the investment career of millions of investors/traders. Rules of the game: There's no central bank supply to help manage the trend. Volatility; therefore, is inherent to the silver game. Option related money

Tarrant lawmaker seeks to create Texas Bullion Depository

Published on 2013-03-24 08:48:00

Right now that depository would be filled with paper claims from the COMEX or gold ETF? Most contracts are rolled over or settled in cash rather than deliver. This will change as gold rises. Margins will be increased until the COMEX becomes a c

UNFIT FOR WORK The startling rise of disability in America

Published on 2013-03-23 20:38:00

The federal government spends more money each year on cash payments for disabled former workers than it spends on food stamps and welfare combined. Socialism works until it runs out of other people's money.

Spike In Cash Assets Screams Warning!

Published on 2013-03-23 08:17:00

Loans as percentage of total bank credit (%TBC) at all commercial banks (see table): Total loans expanding slowly to 72.7%. Treasury & Agency debt, borrowing from the public sector, remains high at 18.7% Commercial and business loans, one sector

Everyone But The Invisible Hand Hates Bonds

Published on 2013-03-23 08:00:00

US Treasury bond observations: Sentiment towards bonds is negative.

François Hollande's popularity slides to record low

Published on 2013-03-22 09:51:00

History tells us that raising raise taxes on the productive assets the driving force of job creation for the masses which includes the poor, only succeeds at driving capital away. This flight of capital neither creates jobs nor wins popularity conte

How High Is Too High For Stocks?

Published on 2013-03-22 09:06:00

As of February 2013, the 2009 stock market rally has generated Z-score of 2.27.

Early Morning Hits To Gold and Silver

Published on 2013-03-22 08:11:00

Gold is slowly creeping towards the green box (chart 1). Chart 1:

Swiss to vote on central bank gold reserves

Published on 2013-03-22 07:50:00

While the Swiss worry about layers between them and their, Americans 'worry' about sheer yoga pants. Headline: Swiss to vote on central bank gold reserves A rightwing group has submitted more than 106,000 signatures to the federal authorities

Time Is Running Out For Jobs And Stocks

Published on 2013-03-22 07:31:00

Average weekly initial jobless claim cycles AWICC1 and AWICC2 are approaching concentrated readings.

Russia rebuffs Cyprus, EU awaits bailout "Plan B"

Published on 2013-03-22 07:05:00

The Russians, quietly increasing their gold reserves as the debt crisis evolves, correctly views Cyprus as a lose/lose predicament.

Cyprus agrees to spin off Greek units of Cypriot banks

Published on 2013-03-22 06:59:00

To whom - Greek banks? They'll need a another bailout, possibly bail-in soon. Headline: Cyprus agrees to spin off Greek units of Cypriot banks NICOSIA (Reuters) - Cyprus has agreed with Greece on a takeover of the Greek units of Cypriot ban

Who Are The Real Controllers In The Monetary Game?

Published on 2013-03-21 15:16:00

Perhaps, Dennis. I suspect a Cyprus (Spanish, Italian, etc) bank run has the potential to generate a vicious downward spiral of confidence lost.

Europe gives Cyprus until Monday to agree to bailout

Published on 2013-03-21 09:47:00

While the talking heads downplay Cyprus as an anomaly to be ignored, they clearly do not follow the message of the markets. The markets are saying that Cyprus is a big deal. The flow of money into precious metals, pushing gold and silver above $1,60

Financial Windfalls for Wall St. Executives Taking Government Jobs

Published on 2013-03-21 08:27:00

Influence within government provides competitive advantages for many sectors within the economy. Government subsidies which includes "too big to fail" protection is big business, so employees are incentivised to serve. Headline: Financial Windfa

'We Will Be Slaves for Russia': Cypriots Warn

Published on 2013-03-21 07:00:00

Those that control the gold and debt make the rules. Headline: 'We Will Be Slaves for Russia': Cypriots Warn Andreas Pavlidis owns a small ice cream and frozen yogurt store just off Nicosia's main shopping street. He only opened the store a

Direction of Gold Silver Ratio (GSR) Measures Liquidity

Published on 2013-03-21 07:00:00

A falling gold to silver ratio (GSR), a sign of rising liquidity, tends to confirms equity market highs.

Retail Stocks Leading Again

Published on 2013-03-20 12:56:00

As long as retail stocks lead, the path of least resistance is up equities. Chart:

U.S. Infrastructure: Still Crumbly, But Less So

Published on 2013-03-20 12:30:00

Phew!

Can the IMF recover?

Published on 2013-03-20 11:01:00

This question will be debated behind closed doors for months. I say let them talk and follow the markets for your answer. If Cyprus becomes the wake-up call for global investors, we should see some new trends develop within 'dependent' markets such

Path of Least Resistance Is Up Equities

Published on 2013-03-20 09:08:00

As long as revenues and outlays continue to expand and contract, respectively (chart 1), the path of least resistance in stocks is up regardless of the sequestration (chart 2).

Bullish Setups In The Canadian Dollar Anticipating What?

Published on 2013-03-20 07:00:00

DI reading above 60%

Bullish Earthquake In Silver

Published on 2013-03-19 10:41:00

Confiscations, err bank taxes, tend to make people irate.

Failed Experiment Could Mean Subtle Change In Message of the Market Ahead

Published on 2013-03-19 08:23:00

While confiscation, passed as a tax, plays out in Europe, the vast majority of investors are likely to underestimate the magnitude of the battle underway. Jim said it best, so why rehash it? The Central Bank of Cyprus doesn't even know how b

Cyprus Bank Tax Plays With Dynamite & Glue

Published on 2013-03-19 07:00:00

While public opinion often provides good entertainment, it has no place in investment discipline.

Watch The EU Drama Unfold

Published on 2013-03-18 09:03:00

Watch the drama unfold.

Gold Is Ready

Published on 2013-03-18 07:00:00

This will hurt more than than the global stock market rally. As Jim suggests in his commentary "One Of The Most Important Events In History & Gold" “What’s just happened is the IMF has backed up, lauded, supported, and publicized, as if it

Gold Primed For An Unexpected Upside Acceleration

Published on 2013-03-16 07:44:00

Money Flow Setup, Technical Trigger, And Bold Forecast For Gold: Gold's DI above 60% (bullish setup) - chart 1. Spreading activity above 80% (fear running high) - chart 2. A green followed by a blue stick (technical trigger) marks the onset of ano

Euro Hook Forming

Published on 2013-03-16 07:14:00

Another growing '(fishing) hook' and potential buying opportunity in the Euro. Chart:

Accumulation in Bonds

Published on 2013-03-16 07:12:00

Accumulation of the dips in the US Treasuries suggests that 'someone' is trying to establish a floor under price.

Yet Another Irrational Exuberance Reference

Published on 2013-03-15 09:19:00

The headline line feed flows like stand-up comedy at times. The last time Greenspan saw 'Irrational Exuberance'*, the market rallied nearly four more years (chart). * December 05, 1996: Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertaint

Gold Showing Signs of Life

Published on 2013-03-15 07:06:00

Total assets WA, a measure of paper money flows in gold, is starting to turn (chart) - click for better resolution. “Gold is about to take out $1,600.” Sinclair then boldly predicted, “We may never see that $1,600 level ever again.”

Debt Is Piling Up Everywhere

Published on 2013-03-15 07:00:00

Federal debt held by foreign and international investors as a percentage of GDP has risen above 35%.

No Money? That's Not A Problem, Everyone Gets A Home Loan Again As History Repeats

Published on 2013-03-15 07:00:00

As long as the taxpayer assume the role as the bag holder of the garbage - nonperforming loans, the go-getters get while the getting is good. Then the sh*t hits the fan and the go-getters disappear faster than 'beer friends' at a party when the k

The Chasers Follow Opinion Not Probabilities

Published on 2013-03-14 09:44:00

The gold to S&P 500 ratio (GLDSPYR) illustrates only the direction of money flows (chart 1).

Unexpected Strength In Retail Sales Hasn't Changed The Market's Message of Concern

Published on 2013-03-14 07:00:00

Unexpected strength in retail sales in February had the cheerleaders singing songs of praise and joy today. The message of the market which supercedes anything the cheerleaders say remains one of concern and disconnect between perception and reality

Greed And Fear Means Most Investors Chase Direction

Published on 2013-03-13 12:11:00

Jim is correct.

What Inflows Into Bond Might Be Trying To Tell Us

Published on 2013-03-13 07:00:00

The drive to chase liquidity driven equity returns is underway. While upside momentum in equities must be respected, it cannot be viewed in isolation. The 1-2-3 setup and positive concentration (DI > 60%) in bonds has anticipated every stock market

Mass Exodus Out of Paper Gold Continues

Published on 2013-03-12 18:27:00

The mass exodus out of paper gold has held the 13DEMA at 0% since February 28th.

Please Join The Building Process By Supporting Our Sponsors

Published on 2013-03-12 12:57:00

Dear Insight Readers, We have added Lijit Networks, an online advertising services, audience

Could Europe's Crisis Be Over By End 2013?

Published on 2013-03-12 08:04:00

Infinite liquidity can put a lid on the crisis until time and the

It's Time to Friend Commodities

Published on 2013-03-12 07:00:00

While Wall Street races to 'unfriend' commodities and their falling revenues, they ignore the relative positive message from the message the market.

Ever Scream Fire In A Crowded Theater To Get A Better Seat? Invisible Hand Is Doing Just That In The Euro

Published on 2013-03-11 09:20:00

There are enough potential bad boys of Europe to fuel new episodes of

Would You Sell Your Gold?

Published on 2013-03-11 07:23:00

Jeff, The pressure of trading/investing in paper gold rather than cashed-up physical is intense. So your clients want to reduce or remove their exposure as the weak to strong hand transfer near completion ahead of the A-wave, or more likely powe

End of Bearish Operation In Gold Approaching

Published on 2013-03-11 07:00:00

Inflows into risk-on currencies such as the

A Significant Development In Gold Suggests Suggests Bottom Near

Published on 2013-03-08 15:38:00

The invisible hand is very good at loading up both sides of the teeter totter or spreading it in perfect balance as not to disturb price. Then, before the HF traders can finish saying, holy sh*t what just happened, it removes one side of trade, thus

Job Creation As Civilian Labor Force Weakens

Published on 2013-03-08 09:56:00

Economic trouble usually starts when JCH crosses below zero (chart 1).

Path of Least Resistance Has Been Up For Years

Published on 2013-03-08 08:57:00

A growing list of negative divergences might be hinting at short-term, possibly intermediate-term pause (not necessarily a decline), but have no illusions, they can coexist with rising markets for weeks, months, even years.

Major Extremes Lead Major Bottoms

Published on 2013-03-08 07:00:00

Major extremes, readings of 0 % in 2008 and again in 2012-2013, suggests the formation of a major bottom. Chart:

Korea Joins Russia, Kazakhstan in Boosting Gold Holdings

Published on 2013-03-08 07:00:00

Accumulation of physical gold remains strong across the globe despite the paper games. Headline: Korea Joins Russia, Kazakhstan in Boosting Gold Holdings South Korea joined Russia and Kazakhstan in boosting gold holdings, even as the metal

Is The Stock Market Rally Getting Tired?

Published on 2013-03-08 07:00:00

A confirmed rally to new (relative) highs should be accompanied by a decline in the VIX to new (relative) lows.

Gold Shares Retesting 1980-2006 Support Zone

Published on 2013-03-07 09:49:00

Rod, Gold miners indices are constructed differently. That is, the companies chosen and their weightings within the index vary. This leads to variations in short- and long-term interpretations.

Oil And Silver Investors Need To Follow The Canadian Dollar

Published on 2013-03-07 08:03:00

Another bullish setup in Canadian dollar, a positive for Canadians and long-term Loonie investors, suggests a broadening price floor under oil and silver and warning to oil and silver bears. Chart 1:

Nothing Has Changed! Stock Market As Well As Irresponsibility at All-Time Highs

Published on 2013-03-07 07:00:00

The financial panic of 2008 was merely a dress

Gold Will Lead The Gold Stocks Higher

Published on 2013-03-07 07:00:00

Gold will lead the gold shares to new highs once the rally resumes.

A Change in Trend in Confidence Says Another Upside Acceleration In Gold Near

Published on 2013-03-06 09:40:00

Though consumer expectations, a survey driven data series, is generally considered soft, it finds unexpected value as a timing tool for gold. A downside break of a consumer expectations counter-trend rally market yet another relative high in confiden

Extreme concentration in Euro Gold

Published on 2013-03-06 07:00:00

Extreme concentration in Euro gold, the highest DI reading recorded since the onset of the bull market in 2001, awaits a trigger event to restart the rally. Chart:

Silver Getting Closer

Published on 2013-03-06 07:00:00

The paper operation runs as long as fear reigns and the boys' managing short positions can be reduced (chart 1).

Car Buyers Take Out Bigger Loans, Set New Record

Published on 2013-03-06 07:00:00

Nothing has changed.

Recognizing BS, Not The Same As Knowing When To Fade It

Published on 2013-03-05 10:46:00

As stock rally to new all-time highs, expect BS to follow.

Money Flow Setup in Bonds Could Mark Another Consolidation Period For Stocks Ahead

Published on 2013-03-05 07:00:00

A wave of 'new' money chasing momentum, more often than not, becomes the bag holders of most directional moves.

Defining The Coming Trigger Event In Gold

Published on 2013-03-04 07:21:00

While ETF money flows suggests capitulation and major bottom forming in gold, it yet to define a trigger event that transfers the building, long-side energy (potential energy) into higher prices (kinetic energy).

Another Financial Storm is Coming

Published on 2013-03-04 07:00:00

America's cash flow problem is hidden by debt issuance. Eventually, the debt burden grows so large that even infinite liquidity can't keep interest rates from rising. Headline: Druckenmiller Sees Storm Worse Than ’08 as Seniors Steal Stan

Disconnects Can Release Energy Into An Unprepared System

Published on 2013-03-03 09:32:00

Yes and no votes for the Are US stocks ready to crash poll increase as stocks fall and rise, respectively.

Governor declares financial emergency in Detroit, calls it a "sad day"

Published on 2013-03-02 07:00:00

Cash flow problems have generated civil unrest within the periphery of the euro zone (Greece, Italy, etc).

The Moose Is Nearly Done Trampling the Weak Hands In Gold and Silver

Published on 2013-03-02 06:29:00

But at a time where the little guys will start jumping on each other because here comes the moose. And the moose is always a big moose and it tramples on your forehead, and therefore they (the little guys) run. It becomes ‘beggar thy neighbor.’

In One Way or Another Everyone Will Go Small To Survive

Published on 2013-03-01 07:16:00

Market forces will push everything from Olive Garden to public institutions to "go small" in order to survive.

Fitch warns U.S. risks losing AAA debt rating

Published on 2013-03-01 07:00:00

The wolf pack, already culling the weak on the periphery, will do what needs to be done long before the rating agencies act in a meaningful way.

History Tends to Rhyme But Not Repeat

Published on 2013-03-01 07:00:00

Hello Daniel. The violent nature of this transition reflects an evolution of the global debt crisis.

US Long Bonds Ready To Jump The Creek?

Published on 2013-03-01 06:52:00

We'll see. If US long bonds "jump the creek" of gap resistance on a sign of strength (force), the

Global Economy Means Shared Pain

Published on 2013-02-28 07:12:00

A shockingly similar face of the sovereign debt crisis can be seen in major cities across the globe. We can all hope for immunity, but survival/prosperity is really a function of one's ability to anticipate. Signs of disconnect grow with each pas

The Invisible Hand Influences All Participants and Markets

Published on 2013-02-28 07:00:00

Jim's observation below reveals why the

Was That the Correction in Stocks?

Published on 2013-02-28 06:06:00

Rising volatility in stocks suggests rising anxiety for long-term investors. Traders able to identify the growing risks are smiling at the opportunity play the sizable wiggles in the charts. Has the short-term message of the market really chang

Posting Comments

Published on 2013-02-27 13:57:00

Posting comments is as easy as the following: Click join this site - Members in right hand column (Desktop only for now). Registered User - includes OpenID can post. Publish comments under posts for further discussion. Follow the Posting Rules to

Those That Dance With The Devil Better Be Light On Their Feet

Published on 2013-02-27 06:45:00

Investors that dance with the devil called gold better be light on their feet or they'll be going home early. This massive flush is nearing a trigger event (chart). London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic Exponential Movin

'Ugly Move' in Yen a Sign of What's to Come?

Published on 2013-02-27 06:33:00

'Ugly moves', not restricted to the Yen, are all a part of fiat's race to bottom (competitive devaluations). This race, designed to foster prosperity (reward) without risk, runs until the world's citizens can no longer afford the necessities of life

Bullish Setup In Canadian Dollar

Published on 2013-02-26 07:00:00

Bullish setup in Canadian dollar

Short-term Outlook For US Stocks

Published on 2013-02-26 07:00:00

As the number of votes for the message of the market says...grows in US Stocks Ready to Crash? poll (Desktop view only for mobile users), it suggests building anxiety.

Prime Markets for End of QE

Published on 2013-02-26 07:00:00

As long as talk is cheap and action dear, the former will be used to maintain the illusions of the old social and economic paradigms.

Messy Italian Election Shakes World Markets

Published on 2013-02-26 06:36:00

Italian election is nothing more than an excuse.

Bullish Setup In Bond Was Trying To Tell Us Something

Published on 2013-02-25 15:18:00

The message of the markets (1,2) often leads the headlines.

Why the Middle Class Is Declining

Published on 2013-02-25 07:00:00

Don't expect the he hollowing out of America, a trend as obvious to middle America as it is to Harvard economists, to go quietly into that good night. Headline: Economist: Why the Middle Class Is Declining The American middle class is "hollow

A Different Look At the Highly Orchestrated Weak to Strong Hand Transfer

Published on 2013-02-25 07:00:00

The well-organized weak to strong hand transfer, often discussed in terms of a rising diffusion index (DI), also produces the following setups: A sharp reduction and increase in commercial trader shorts and longs, respectively.

Scary Gold Headline Selling Panic, Fear, Doubt, and Hiding Bullish Money Flows

Published on 2013-02-23 07:00:00

Be patient and strong. Gold's sharp decline, reinforced by 'scary' headlines, has generated panic, fear, and doubt in precious metals.

Sentiment Towards Gold and Gold Stocks Negative

Published on 2013-02-22 07:00:00

Green sticks form when downside action in gold significantly outperforms gold.

Bonds Nearing Trigger Event

Published on 2013-02-22 06:55:00

An upside breakout of TLT's power down trend (PDT) should generate an unexpected outcome for both bonds and stocks.

Knowing When To Hold'em and Fold'em

Published on 2013-02-21 07:00:00

Investors are likely expressing a desire to turn patience into action in many markets.

Leading The Sheep to the Wolves

Published on 2013-02-20 10:48:00

Kevin describes the frustration of playing the paper markets. Extension of the D-wave is possible - remember they're only labels used to describe the ebb and flow of the managing leveraged money flows.

Panic Selling In Precious Metals - Just Ask The Margin Clerks

Published on 2013-02-20 10:09:00

The more insulting the hate email becomes, the closer we are to an absolute low in this manufactured gold reaction. It is really foul today - Jim Sinclair. What is certain to be come the powerful and indiscreet operation against gold continues wit

Secular Markets Exhibit Proportional Inhales and Exhales

Published on 2013-02-20 07:00:00

Market tends to exhibit proportional inhales and exhales (ebb and flo) within secular trends. Big inhales (consolidations) tend to follow big exhales (rallies).

Pessimism Towards Gold Reigns in 2013

Published on 2013-02-19 09:47:00

Pessimism towards gold without a doubt reigns in 2013 (chart).

The World's Uneasy Relationship With Information

Published on 2013-02-19 08:21:00

China's not the only nation with an uneasy relationship with information.

Bond Vigilantes Bold In The Face Strong Accumulation

Published on 2013-02-19 07:00:00

Perhaps, it's finally the invisible hand's turn to be stretchered out the front door in full public view.

Silver Shorts And Market Forces On A Collision Trajectory

Published on 2013-02-18 07:00:00

While 'connected players' struggle to unload their large

Forget Internal Memos - Wal Mart Sales Have Been A Disaster Since 2002

Published on 2013-02-17 09:27:00

While an internal memo expressing concern about recent sales trends at Wal-Mart generates headline clicks, it's NOT (big emphasis here) saying anything new about the long-term trends. Wal-Mart's stock 'adjusted' performance, the only internal memo th

A Free Mind Knows No Boundaries

Published on 2013-02-16 16:42:00

Life, including the investment world, is full of unexpected challenges that can only meet through creative-thinking, persistence, and old-fashioned hard work.

Time To Buy Euro Gold?

Published on 2013-02-16 16:10:00

Does a strong close above 40% to 48%, the highest since 2001, greatly increases the probability of a Euro gold rally in the coming months?

Comment Section Now Open To Insight Members

Published on 2013-02-16 15:55:00

The comment section is open to Insight members only.

Sell Subscriptions In An Open Forum World

Published on 2013-02-16 14:58:00

I know subscription service, if chosen on my behalf, is the easy solution, or as Bob suggests, what needs to be done. But in many ways, a subscription only paradigm was well-suited for yesterday's fragmented and highly-localized form of communicatio

Panic In Gold Hides Bullish Accumlation

Published on 2013-02-16 07:00:00

Markets primed for an unexpected change of trend are often concentrated.

Message Clear But Emotions Make It Difficult to Read

Published on 2013-02-15 08:00:00

Emotions see the following in the gold market: Falling price Falling price generates fear Fear sees price falling further. Pessimism towards and outflows from gold are reaching extremes.

Gold smuggling soars in India

Published on 2013-02-15 07:00:00

Illegalization of drugs, liquor, even guns, will not stop their transaction.

U.S. gold bars and coins find new home overseas on Asian demand

Published on 2013-02-15 07:00:00

The flow of money from West to East illustrates the flow of power.

Central Banks Bought Most Gold in Nearly 50 Years

Published on 2013-02-15 07:00:00

What's this?

The Managers Push Gold And Silver Because They Can

Published on 2013-02-14 12:22:00

This AB transition/delay which can be extremely frustrating to trade looks "normal" in terms money flows.

Market Says Risk-On But Cracks Are Showing

Published on 2013-02-14 07:00:00

The message of the market has been one of risk-on for months (char 1,2, & 3).

US Federal Budget Contracting

Published on 2013-02-14 07:00:00

The economic recovery has positively concentrated the US federal budget. While skeptics and contrarians likely view this concentrated rise as extended and negative, it must be viewed within the context of larger economic up cycle until 2016 transiti

Accumulation of Loonie

Published on 2013-02-14 07:00:00

Inflows into the Canadian dollar (Loonie) are only surpassed by the Treasury bond.

The Message of the Market Doesnt Suggest Repeat of 1987 Yet

Published on 2013-02-13 10:18:00

Traders that survive quickly learn that while history tends to rhyme, it rarely repeats. Is some variant of the 1987 stock market crash possible? Yes, it’s possible. Would profiting from it be as simple as following a 1987 playbook? I doubt it.

Homeowners Using Their Homes Like ATMs Again?

Published on 2013-02-13 07:00:00

The securitization of mortgages was viewed by many, including the Fed, as way to spreading risk, increasing loan demand and profits, and supporting underlying asset prices. Real estate loan demand and home prices soared when securitization offered cr

Greeks strip country for scrap cash

Published on 2013-02-13 07:00:00

A sign of the desperate times in Greece. Headline: Greeks strip country for scrap cash Greece has been hit by an unprecedented wave of metal thefts as its recession-hit people turn to crime. Train lines, bridges, cables and even cemeteries ha

Long-term Gold Buyers Smiling

Published on 2013-02-12 09:58:00

The Chinese New Year which temporarily removes Chinese participation often creates a demand

If There's Doubt And You're Not Out, Play Small or Be Prepared To Take A Big Fall

Published on 2013-02-12 07:00:00

Copper, often called Doctor copper due to its ability to 'predict' turning points, has generated an extreme bearish setup (chart 1).

U.S. Soy Supply at 48-Year Low as Brazil Ships Held: Commodities

Published on 2013-02-12 07:00:00

The bean bulls, still lacking an emotional trigger, are patiently waiting for the bullish supply/demand to translate into higher prices. Watch the invisible hand setup soybeans. Chart:

Who Doesn't Recognize This Pattern In Gold?

Published on 2013-02-11 09:22:00

Invisible hand keeps pushing the following: Hit the premarket open, sit back and watch. Hit the London close, sit back and watch. If more paper fuel exists and TIME permits, Go to 1. Chart: 24 Hour Spot Gold ----------------------

Participation Is Declining

Published on 2013-02-11 07:00:00

A turn is coming but first fear will remove all but the hardcore gold bulls from the secular up trend. Chart:

The Invisible Influences All Participants

Published on 2013-02-11 07:00:00

Good observations, Thomas, but the only opinion I follow is the message of the market. Many conclude that the commercial traders must be the often cited "invisible hand."

Gold Shares Can Outpeform Gold Under Sound Management

Published on 2013-02-09 07:00:00

Gold share investors (including Jay), Perhaps the following question will answer how the gold shares can rally after gold reaches fair value. Did gold shares peak in 1934 and 1980? Chart: S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)

Invisible Hand Continues Accumulating Weakness In Gold

Published on 2013-02-09 07:00:00

A rising gold DI says the invisible hand has buying weakness since October 2012.

Invisible Hand Buying Bonds As Bearish Band Wagon Fills

Published on 2013-02-09 07:00:00

As the world rushes to join the bearish bond band wagon, a series of three peaks above 60% in the Treasury bond diffusion index implies significant accumulation by the invisible hand (chart 1).

Should the U.S. kill the penny?

Published on 2013-02-09 07:00:00

Should the US kill the penny?

Accumulation Of Loonie Suggest Resource Rally Coming

Published on 2013-02-08 10:54:00

A rising Canadian dollar (C$) diffusion index (DI) suggests that the invisible hand is quietly accumulating into the fear. While DI has yet to cross 60%, a concentrated bullish setup, its upside acceleration warrants close attention.

The Revival of Subprime: Will This End Badly?

Published on 2013-02-08 09:36:00

Of course liquidity/credit for everyone, even those that can't afford it, will end badly.

Gorilla Still Pushing Around Gold

Published on 2013-02-08 07:56:00

The 800lb gorilla continues to wreck havoc on the trading floor.

Junk Spreads Say Still Risk-On

Published on 2013-02-08 07:00:00

Investors thinking that rising junk bond yield (falling prices) implies a failure to confirm higher equity prices, return of the risk-off trade, and sign of trouble for stocks ahead are chasing an illusion.

What Trips Up The Stock Bulls? Time and Extreme Upside Concentration

Published on 2013-02-08 07:00:00

What could trip up the stock market bulls?

Market Driven Forces Cannot Be Managed

Published on 2013-02-08 07:00:00

History has shown us repeatedly that market-driven forces cannot be managed by central planning.

Wait Until the Gorilla Tires

Published on 2013-02-07 12:19:00

The early and late session, ski-slope declines are inevitable when the 800lb gorilla's main opponent are technically-driven computers algorithms. Chart 1: 24 hours Silver Chart The highly coordinated flushing action should reduce silver's

New 'Stealth' Fashion Look Lets People Duck Drone Cameras

Published on 2013-02-07 10:49:00

Silver becomes more difficult to control with each passing day as monetary and industrial/commercial demand consistently outstrips supply.

No-Money-Down Mortgages And Loss of Common Sense Are Back

Published on 2013-02-07 07:00:00

The leveraged-consumption economic growth model is heavily dependent the wealth effect.

Analysis: Even brief spending cuts could hit U.S. economy hard

Published on 2013-02-07 07:00:00

If America tightens its fiscal belt, even briefly,

Huge Rotation Into Commodities After 2017?

Published on 2013-02-07 07:00:00

Investors sensing an acceleration of inflation ahead are likely watching commodities.

Probabilities Favor Gold Over Equities

Published on 2013-02-06 07:00:00

Extreme concentration in equities relative to gold (green circles) favors selling equities to buy gold.

Euro Remains Bullish

Published on 2013-02-06 07:00:00

Bullish technicals and money flows should quiet the Euro (and gold) bears in the coming months. A bullish stack projects at least 140. Chart 1:

Dollar Index Precariously Balanced Despite "Best Efforts"

Published on 2013-02-05 10:24:00

The message from the dollar index is precariously balanced despite "best efforts" to hold the line (chart 1 and 2).

Gold Entering Oversold Territory As Window of Opportunity Closes On B-Wave

Published on 2013-02-05 08:53:00

Gold enters buy territory when the 13DEMA equals or falls below 20% during the B-wave.

EXCLUSIVE: Justice Department memo reveals legal case for drone strikes on Americans

Published on 2013-02-05 07:58:00

The manner in which a nation conducts itself within the global forum influences the confidence given to its economy and currency.

Buying and Holding The Secular Trend In Silver While Fishing

Published on 2013-02-05 07:00:00

The average investor, chasing the illusion of easy profits, expects to jumping in-and-out of the silver trend with ease.

Strong Bullish Setup In Bonds

Published on 2013-02-05 07:00:00

Agreed. An strong, three count bullish setup in the Treasury bond market says another bond bears crushing by the invisible hand is near. Chart: US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And US Treasury Bond Diffusion Index (DI) You cannot predict h

Here Comes The Public - Stocks, Silver, Gold

Published on 2013-02-04 09:35:00

A spike in bullish sentiment towards concentration suggests a rising market temperature (chart 1).

Gold and Gold Shares Demand Patience

Published on 2013-02-04 07:00:00

Since the gold shares have been lead to higher highs by gold since 1968 (chart 1), timing must be based on the analysis of gold. The gold shares will continue decline, consolidate, and frustrate as long as the invisible hand can pressure gold, th

Timing Gold Across Currencies

Published on 2013-02-02 08:10:00

As Pierrafeu suggests, the majority of money flow analysis on Insights flows from a USD perspective. For example, when the invisible hand accumulates gold (as its doing now), it'ss usually captured by a rising diffusion index (DI) as the price de

U.S. January Manufacturing PMI 53.1 Vs 50.2 in December -ISM

Published on 2013-02-01 10:18:00

Trend inflections (up or down) are usually accompanied by extreme economic acceleration or decelerations.

Economy Adds 157,000 Jobs; Rate Up to 7.9%

Published on 2013-02-01 09:00:00

A positive but falling jobs creation histogram (JCH) implies deteriorating economic growth.

Illinois Yanks Bond Amid Pension Woes

Published on 2013-02-01 07:00:00

For more than 15 years, residents have left Illinois at a rate of one person every 10 minutes. Why are so many fleeing Illinois? Illinois residents are leaving for states where they can have a higher standard of living. The IRS data shows that

Jobless Claims Say Path of Least Resistance Down

Published on 2013-01-31 07:00:00

A statistically significant rise or fall in jobless claims often warns of an economic expansion and contraction ahead, respectively.

GDP unexpectedly shrinks, decline seen temporary

Published on 2013-01-31 07:00:00

We all see what we want to see in economic reports.

Risk-On Gaining Momentum

Published on 2013-01-30 07:00:00

The risk-on trade (retail stocks, home prices, and junk spreads) is gaining momentum. Retail stocks, while showing early stages of deterioration, have been leading since 2008 Chart 1:

AB Delay - Thoughts versus Discipline

Published on 2013-01-29 08:23:00

As the number of negative thoughts (fear, anger, pessimism, and/or worry) pile up the latest AB delay, we must learn to free our mind from them.

Interest Rates Will Spike This Year: Soros

Published on 2013-01-29 07:00:00

The next crisis of confidence (financial crisis) will send both interest rates and gold higher.

Patience and Time

Published on 2013-01-28 15:02:00

As Kevin reminds us,

The Euro and Gold Trend Together

Published on 2013-01-28 07:00:00

Buying concentrations and/or Euro "hooks" (think fishing) has been a profitable trading strategy since 2008. The Euro's up trend associated with outflows (down red arrow) implies at least a multi-month rally from September 2012.

The Invisible Hand Is Master of Fear in Gold and Silver

Published on 2013-01-26 11:20:00

It didn't take long to realize that Jim (Sinclair) wasn't just another "Internet fool" devoid of skills spinning some hidden agenda;

New Credit Card 'Checkout Fee' Arrives This Weekend

Published on 2013-01-26 07:00:00

Regulations designed to save everyone from the financial bogey inevitably generates unintended consequences. These unintended consequences tend to increasse the cost of doing business for everyone but the financial bogey man. Headline: New Credi

Soaring Trend Energy Continues To Say Equity Bears Be Warned!

Published on 2013-01-25 07:00:00

Again, Equity Bears Be Warned!

Change Is Driven By Market Forces

Published on 2013-01-25 07:00:00

This why change, driven by market forces set by the flow of capital balancing risk and reward rather than the will of the majority, tends to be harsh, abrupt, and unforgiving for those unable to read the message of the markets. As long as P

Gold Shares Bull Market Not Dead

Published on 2013-01-24 11:47:00

Chasing strength (buying) or weakness (weakness) in the gold shares is comparable to saying a tiger can by controlled by holding its tail. Facts: Gold shares registered an upside breakout of long-term consolidation in 1961 and 2010. Those t

Failure of Small Caps to Lead the Rally Subtle Warning

Published on 2013-01-24 07:00:00

As long as small cap stocks fail to lead equities higher, thereby, setting up a negative divergence between small and large cap stock money flows (down red bar or spread relative up green bar over equities), it says pay attention to negative indicato

GLD Money Flow Review

Published on 2013-01-23 10:13:00

Nothing unexpected. Chart: London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic Exponential Moving Average (13DEMA): ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. D

US Debt Not 'The" Problem, But Part of A Much Bigger One

Published on 2013-01-23 07:00:00

What Buffett does not say is that the world's mountain bad debts which he once described as weapons of mass destruction is far more interconnected today that it was in the early days after WWII. Also, debt has a nasty habit of not being a problem

World Unemployment to Hit Record High in 2013

Published on 2013-01-22 08:55:00

As it did in the early years of the Great Depression.

Uneasy in the Political Climate, Mickelson Talks Like Someone Ready to Step Away

Published on 2013-01-22 08:48:00

The movement of capital from excessive taxation is not restricted to Europe. Most of these decisions, however, are done quietly. Phil Mickelson's concerns about high federal and state taxes has him talking about "drastic changes" ahead (headline b

It's Easy For the Public To Like Real Estate

Published on 2013-01-22 07:00:00

Rising real estate always looks good to the public until capital concentrates and the cycles turn down.

Another Panic Is Coming

Published on 2013-01-21 13:00:00

US debt soars during Obama presidency but so do stocks, both due to big downturn Big downturns are byproducts of financial/economic panics.

Understand The Reach Of The Tax Man

Published on 2013-01-20 09:21:00

George Harrison, a genius with the strings and pretty good lyricist, understood the reach of the taxman. Let me tell you how it will be There's one for you, nineteen for me 'Cause I'm the taxman, yeah, I'm the taxman Should five per cent

Equities Will Be Vulnerable As The Number of Warning Shots Pile Up

Published on 2013-01-19 07:00:00

Equities will be vulnerable to a major sell-off as the number of warning shots across their bow pile up in the months/years ahead.

Shortages The New Normal Until 2016

Published on 2013-01-19 07:00:00

Will the U.S. Mint simply close its doors near the C-wave highs? Chart: Silver London P.M Fixed and the Silver Diffusion Index (DI) Headline:

Dangerous Starting To Look Safe In Bond Market

Published on 2013-01-19 07:00:00

While interest rates should bottom in 2013, timing it will not be as easy as following consensus opinion. Consensus opinion says bonds are the most 'dangerous' asset to own. Experience says that when everyone but the invisible hand calls something

Key To Timing Gold Is US Treasuries

Published on 2013-01-18 09:30:00

Jim is absolutely right. The key to timing (gold) is the US Treasury market The invisible hand regardless of its connections in high places will step aside and yield to market forces.

TIME Tells Us When To Take The Gloves Off

Published on 2013-01-18 09:16:00

I don't. There's an old saying on my trading desk, "A lot of sh*t happens that doesn't mean squat." ...so much for the illusion of a sophisticated desk. I can hear the students of statistics saying one, two, three data points don't make

The Message of The Market Says Expect the Unexpected, Unfortunately Few Listen

Published on 2013-01-18 08:51:00

The gold to silver ratio (GSR) analysis can contradict intuition. This is a common theme on Insights.

One in four savers has 401(k) ‘leakage’

Published on 2013-01-18 07:00:00

Americans scrambling to maintain or salvage their standard of livings have experienced savings 'leakage' for decades.

First Shots Are Fired in Global 'Currency War'

Published on 2013-01-18 07:00:00

Who are they kidding with 'first shots fired'? Competitive devaluations have been on going since 2008. Headline: First Shots Are Fired in Global 'Currency War' Faced with a stubbornly slow and uneven global economic recovery, more countri

Recognize and Buy When There's Blood In the Streets

Published on 2013-01-18 07:00:00

Investors with the discipline to recognize and buy when there's blood in the streets do well.

Look at the Euro

Published on 2013-01-18 07:00:00

This process is behind the ascendancy of the euro despite every bear argument to the settlement currency of choice, Jim Sinclair. If making money in the investment world was simply a matter of following the path of consensus opinion, we'd all be bi

U.S. business executives call for raising retirement age to 70

Published on 2013-01-17 12:24:00

Soon even Jim won't 'qualify' for retirement.

Follow Currency Flows (The Money)

Published on 2013-01-17 09:02:00

The renminbi moved from 20th spot in the rankings of the world’s most-used currencies to 14th in August, ahead of the Danish kroner but behind the Russian ruble. The No. 1 position is held by the euro, with the U.S. dollar at No. 2. #3.

Rising Food Symptom Of Greater Economic Problem

Published on 2013-01-17 07:10:00

Soaring food prices are but a symptom of a greater economic problem. Economic deterioration drives revolutions, not rising food prices. The green circles illustrate when at least the short-term cycle (CRBSPOTC1) falls below one sigma during secul

China sovereign wealth fund may cut US debt holdings

Published on 2013-01-17 07:00:00

Chinese sovereign wealth fund(s) know the US recovery and stock market rally have a limited shelf life as of 2013.

Gold Will Climb The Wall of Worry With Or Without The Gold Community

Published on 2013-01-17 07:00:00

Money, following the ebb and flo of time, has been steadily moving into gold since 2001 despite what seems to many at times as an insurmountable wall of worry (chart 1). The speed and angle of gold's secular up trend, driven by a burgeoning transfer

Gold to Silver Ratio Says Watch Silver Later This Year

Published on 2013-01-17 07:00:00

Probabilities favor silver resuming its out performance of gold in 2013. Chart: Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR), Monthly Average Price and Cycle Z Scores (GSRC1 & GSRC2) ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to re

Bundesbank to pull gold from New York and Paris in watershed moment

Published on 2013-01-16 08:41:00

Holding gold reserves abroad has been an excellent security precaution for many nations since the end of WWI and the establishment of the Bretton Woods System.

Review of Natural Gas

Published on 2013-01-16 07:00:00

Investors might natural gas's rising DI (chart 1), an indication of accumulation, as a signal a change in trend is coming.

GLD Money Flows and Counts

Published on 2013-01-16 07:00:00

Third up count is underway. Chart:

One of Many Warning Shots Yet To Come

Published on 2013-01-15 15:00:00

Jeff, Warning shot across the bow was meant to suggest that the window of opportunity for the "risk-on trade" is slowly closing.

Bundesbank wants to bring German gold

Published on 2013-01-15 12:10:00

Cooperation, a critical component in the game of control, took a big hit today if the headline below proves correct.

Obama demands quick action to raise debt limit

Published on 2013-01-15 08:00:00

Structural budget and trade deficits says taxes have been coming up short for years.

Warning Shot Across The Bow Of Equities

Published on 2013-01-15 07:00:00

SDC1 and SDC2 readings above 2 sigma represent a warning shot across the bow of equities and the risk-on rally (chart 1 and 2).

Study finds unsafe mercury levels in 84 percent of all fish

Published on 2013-01-14 11:31:00

Global citizens inadequately educated on the effects of pollution and climate change on the worldwide food chain show little concern for headline below. Screw this hippie, green talk, and tell me about gold, Eric. That’s all that matters.

Review of Gold

Published on 2013-01-14 07:00:00

Review of Gold: Gold's Diffusion index (DI) has risen from -86% in October 2012 to +33% as of 01/08/13 (chart 1)

Bullish Setup in Bonds

Published on 2013-01-13 08:19:00

Bullish Setup in Bonds: A bond diffusion index reading greater than 60% indicates aggressive accumulation of Treasury and 10-year bonds by the invisible hand (chart 1). Spec funds and retail money participation in Treasury and 10-year bonds, a go

Oil prices jump 10% in a month

Published on 2013-01-12 08:58:00

While the media scrambles to explain the 10% jump within a month, it misses the most important reason several weeks ago - the invisible hand was accumulating. Distribution (DI - red arrow) into strength (Oil - green arrows), a classic setup for o

Selling Fear In Stocks, Easier Than Shooting Fish In A Barrel

Published on 2013-01-11 07:00:00

Selling fear in the investment world is easier than shooting fish in a barrel. Does a falling VIX mean trouble ahead? Those anticipating trouble with leverage often don't survive long enough to say "I was right but early." A quick, objective rev

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered

Published on 2013-01-10 14:22:00

Kevin, While gold and silver are building cause for another rally, they will face even tougher (trading) challenges as price rallies.

Can America survive as the world’s superpower?

Published on 2013-01-10 08:13:00

America will join a coalition of superpowers that will struggle for influence and control of the world’s resources. This means a steady reduction in standard of livings for most as America’s participation in global affairs transforms from unilat

At Look At Gold

Published on 2013-01-10 07:00:00

Follow the flow of money and time. Chart:

Accumulation in Grains

Published on 2013-01-10 07:00:00

The message of the market in grains (corn, wheat, beans) has been accumulation for weeks.

The Fed Guessing Game: Funds Rate to Rise, but When?

Published on 2013-01-09 15:00:00

The Fed funds rate reacts to market rates driven by market forces.

The Formula Makes The Debt Ceiling Debate Meaningless

Published on 2013-01-09 07:00:00

Confusion and uncertainty will remerge as the headlines focus on the debt ceiling debate over the coming weeks. If politicians use the debt ceiling to contain big government, already anemic economic growth will implode rather quickly. We have ta

EU unemployment tops 26 million for 1st time

Published on 2013-01-08 11:15:00

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } The euro zone needs to consolidate and restructure state debt into one debt for Europe (zone).

Gold, Interest Rates, and Faltering Confidence

Published on 2013-01-08 08:00:00

"Gold will NEVER rise until there is a real crisis. That begins ONLY when interest rates turn. The same with those constantly preaching 10 cents on the dollar for the Dow. To get that kind of move requires interest rates at a peak, not a low." Gol

Price Follows Time, Timing Follows Concentration

Published on 2013-01-07 09:04:00

My ABCD nomenclature often incorrectly described as a subjective variant of Elliott wave theory follows time and concentrations. Price follows time, and timing follows concentration. I don’t see too much difference between 2012, 2009, or 2005,

Commodity Bull Market Not Dead

Published on 2013-01-07 07:00:00

Slow growth and persistent inflation, stagflation, will linger at lot longer than public, politicians expect.

Gold: 2013 Looks Like 2009, Which Looked Like 2005

Published on 2013-01-05 08:11:00

I recall making the suggestion on jsmineset.com that gold, following a similar setup displayed in 2005, would rally despite bearish expectations and a large negative net long position in 2009 (chart).

Doubt The Invisible Hand WIll Lose Their Shirt In Bonds

Published on 2013-01-05 07:00:00

The invisible hand moves slowly around the cycle of time. Investors ignorant of them often swim against a current of money as the trend changes.

Invest With The Invisible Hand

Published on 2013-01-04 15:50:00

Buying physical gold/silver at the bottom of the D-wave with the invisible hand is called investing.

John Law Effect

Published on 2013-01-04 14:52:00

Bob, Introductory economics 101 explain shortages of an item as setting price below that which would be cleared by the forces of supply and demand. In most cases, shortages motivate firms to raise prices until equilibrium between the two forces is

Afternoon Mailbox

Published on 2013-01-04 13:15:00

Hi Eric, I have been spending the last two months (and the next 3) on my small sailboat in La Paz, Baha Mexico like last year. It sure beats Seattle's winter! I get to an internet cafe once in awhile and try and read all your postings on

If You Can't Stand The Heat, Get Out of the Kitchen

Published on 2013-01-04 10:03:00

While I wouldn't rush into a crowded movie theater and scream FIRE after reading this morning's labor report, I wouldn't describe it as steady either. The headline should be modified to say hiring and unemployment 'steady', as long as it implied und

The Public Does Not Think Like The Invisible Hand

Published on 2013-01-04 07:00:00

"Doubts about QE" provide a convenient excuse to send gold down the elevator shaft of fear.

Gold Shares Review

Published on 2013-01-03 10:27:00

Gold shares investors invest in the skill and experience of the core management team.

Dog And Pog Show Continues

Published on 2013-01-03 07:00:00

It took less than two months for campaign promises of no new taxes and deficit reduction to vanish without a whimper.

It's Never Wise To Chase Silver

Published on 2013-01-03 07:00:00

Chasing silver strength before the invisible hand is ready (DI still too low) can lead to frustration (chart 1).

Despite deal, taxes to rise for most Americans

Published on 2013-01-02 07:39:00

Global markets celebrated the manufactured certainty by rallying as 99% of American face higher taxes in 2013. After all the hype and drama, the Cliff was little more than meaningless line in the sand presented to the public as their economic savior

Those That Understand And Control Gold Make The Rules

Published on 2013-01-02 07:00:00

Longest streak since 1920?

Right or Wrong, We Versus They, Markets Don't Care

Published on 2013-01-02 07:00:00

Bob, It's not about right or wrong, or we versus they for me.

Nationalization of Mortgage Industry Changes Only The Bag Holders

Published on 2013-01-01 07:00:00

Jim's right.

Throw the Manual Out If It Doesn't Work

Published on 2012-12-31 11:55:00

If the widely accepted manual used to interpret the markets doesn't work, throw the darn thing out in 2013!

The Flexibility of Time

Published on 2012-12-31 07:00:00

Kevin, Einstein proved that time is relative. That is, time passes more slowly for individuals traveling near the speed of light than someone on Earth. Time is also relative in the investment world. For example, time passes more slowly within

Bye-Bye Bonds in 2013? More Like Bye-Bye Bond Bears

Published on 2012-12-30 09:56:00

Investors are increasingly saying bye-bye bonds in 2013.

Gold and The Invisible Hand Follow TIME Updated

Published on 2012-12-29 18:15:00

The complexity of this discussion, computer reconfiguration, and limited holiday

Reid says fiscal cliff dive likely; blasts Boehner for lacking leadership

Published on 2012-12-28 07:00:00

What qualifies as leadership when retaliation is the modus operandi of politics? Raising taxes and (selectively) reducing spending without addressing the core burden of ever-increasing interest payments on existing debt will only turn capital from mu

The Unexpected Becomes The Norm

Published on 2012-12-27 09:00:00

The unexpected becomes the norm in a world of easy explanations.

Accumulation in Crude Oil Bullish For Stocks

Published on 2012-12-26 07:00:00

Accumulation and distribution in the crude oil often leads stock market rallies and declines, respectively.

Merry Christmas And Happy Holidays To All

Published on 2012-12-24 07:00:00

Happy holidays to all and a happy and prosperous 2013.

Fools Rush In (Gold and Silver) Where Angles Fear to Tread

Published on 2012-12-22 10:14:00

The old saying fools rush in where angels fear to tread always seems to apply to gold and silver.

Euro Follow Up After November Review

Published on 2012-12-22 07:00:00

Jim talked about this last week, The euro has won its fight for survival against the US and GB. $1.45 plus is possible. Source: More The Euro's message (cycle) has been up price (down DI), down price (up DI), up price (down DI), down pri

Nibbling The Extremes In Precious Metals

Published on 2012-12-21 07:42:00

Extreme outflows in the precious metals ETFs, likely confirmed by leverage markets (diffusion indices) in the coming weeks, represent not only short-term lows but also excellent entry points. While the invisible hand is pushing hard in precious m

The Inevitable Fiscal Cliff Solution Will Ignore The Real Problems At Hand

Published on 2012-12-21 07:00:00

No fiscal cliff solution, either plan A, B, C, D, and so on, solves the problem of contracting credit around the world.

Teacher Inherits $7 Million In Gold Found In Hermit Cousin's Garage

Published on 2012-12-20 10:48:00

Had he lived through a few more C-wave advances, this "hermit" who's fortune likely exceed $7 million (USD) could have taught us all a few things about investing and self-reliance. Headline: Teacher Inherits $7 Million In Gold Found In Hermit Cous

California home prices rise 25 percent

Published on 2012-12-20 10:35:00

Most Americans define wealth

Invisible Hand Pushing Hard, Again

Published on 2012-12-20 10:16:00

Fear of the fiscal cliff, -of an economic recovery that will not happen, -of the mailman around the holidays etc. when combined with Asian interests willing to look the other way in exchange for a significant discount on whatever physical the West wi

Greece Rating Upgraded From 'Selective Default' by S&P

Published on 2012-12-20 07:00:00

Greece could very well be one of the better investments into 2015. Headline:

Japan's Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world

Published on 2012-12-20 07:00:00

Japan has been reflating without much success since 1989.

Majority of Americans have received government aid

Published on 2012-12-20 07:00:00

The Marxist trend of the late nineteenth century ends when the percentage of American receiving benefits outstrips the economic capacity to support it. Headline:

Boehner unveils "Plan B" as "fiscal cliff" deadline looms

Published on 2012-12-19 09:19:00

At one point I would have said the invisible hand was hoping for Plan C or D to complete the transfer, but Plan B's uncertainty might be enough to finish the job. Headline:

Cycles Are Constant

Published on 2012-12-19 08:44:00

Kevin; While TIME is dynamic, cycles (counts) are not.

Equity Bears Be Warned!

Published on 2012-12-19 07:28:00

ADN(E), a measure of trend energy, continues to set record highs while price lags; Price remains below its September 2012 and July 2007 high.

McMansions Return: Big Houses Come Back

Published on 2012-12-19 07:00:00

Poorly qualified buyers chasing the McMansion revival are unlikely to find Green Day's song American Idiot amusing in 2017. Don't want to be an American idiot. One nation controlled by the media. Information age of hysteria. It's calling out to

The Invisible Hand Is Pushing Hard

Published on 2012-12-19 07:00:00

Unusual Observations: The second up count failed to reach 100%. The second down count has exceeded the previous lows by a wide margin. Those able to check their emotions at the door ask the right questions. Why is the invisible pushing s

Gerard Depardieu Wants His Freedom Back

Published on 2012-12-19 07:00:00

History clearly states that money, highly mobile and flexible, will flee various forms of social, economic, and financial oppression. German wealth fled to Switzerland to hide from the NAZI taxation in the early 1930's. While today's taxation premi

Invisible Hand Abuses The Black Boxes Again

Published on 2012-12-18 13:19:00

The troops are in full retreat from what they do not know Jim

Don't Sell Gold Shares In Disgust - Follow The Cycles

Published on 2012-12-18 07:00:00

The gold community tends to follow the cycle of emotion (greed and fear) when trading the gold shares.

Love, Hate, Indifference...Gold Doesn't Care

Published on 2012-12-18 07:00:00

Kevin; Chart:

Obama Bypasses Congress to Mandate Black Boxes for All Cars -- Beginning in '14

Published on 2012-12-18 07:00:00

Follow Other Markets To Time Gold

Published on 2012-12-17 07:00:00

The cycles that drive gold can be observed in other markets with amplitude.

Why Central Banks Can't Let Up on Stimulus

Published on 2012-12-17 07:00:00

Central banks can't let up on stimulus because of the absurdity of the trends below. Chart:

Forget the Hype and Focus The Message of the Markets

Published on 2012-12-17 07:00:00

Investors focusing on the fiscal cliff rather than the message of the markets are likely to have their wallets placed on standby.

Gold Investors Nibble The Fish Hooks To Survive

Published on 2012-12-15 09:13:00

AB Transition, blue shaded boxes includes the A wave rally, AB delay until B-wave buy signal.

Child, gunman dead in Conn. elementary school shooting

Published on 2012-12-14 14:40:00

Today is another sad day among an increasing number of them for all Americans. Take a moment to pray for the fallen, families, and a society dangerously close to viewing these horrific events as the norm. This must stop here or all that we once sto

How Do You Respond To Advances And Decline In The Gold Shares?

Published on 2012-12-14 14:10:00

What's your emotional response to advances and declines in the gold shares?

Most Will Live To See $3,500

Published on 2012-12-14 07:00:00

Any experienced trader knows that as long as NY dominates the paper price of gold, it will never, ever breakout after a Fed statement. While anyone can expire unexpectedly, the vast majority of your readers under the age of 95 and eating their rec

Welcome To the AB Delay In Gold

Published on 2012-12-13 11:49:00

Kevin, Jim said it best, Gold Does Not Need You Or Me, or your clients. Reducing the number of passengers (investors) riding gold's secular bull market train before TIME renders this operation (discussed as the AB delay on Insights for months) in

Gold Being Accumulated As Insurance

Published on 2012-12-13 07:00:00

Gold is being accumulated as insurance against the trend illustrated below. Chart:

U.S. Nov. budget deficit $172 billion: Treasury

Published on 2012-12-13 07:00:00

The fiscal year-to-date deficit is up 24% from the first two months of fiscal 2012. The Treasury department reported that receipts (revenues) though rising lagged outlays (spending) again.

Federal Reserve announces further bond buying

Published on 2012-12-12 12:28:00

All is good, right? This statement pretty much sums up the Fed's decision to initiate more bond buying The goal is to keep long-term interest rates down and encourage individuals and firms to borrow and spend more.

A Stock Market That Ignores The Experts

Published on 2012-12-12 09:04:00

Some have suggested that a Fed-induced stock market rally currently underway won't happen.

Short Gold Might Sound Good, But Buyer Beware!

Published on 2012-12-12 07:00:00

I suspect that the suggestion to short gold if a deal (fiscal cliff) is reached scares some within the community.

Patience Rewards Gold Investors

Published on 2012-12-12 07:00:00

Patience rewards gold investors with profits.

GM Boosting Discounts to Sell Trucks Seen as Holiday Gift

Published on 2012-12-11 15:10:00

Sound familiar?

Right To Work And Right To Accept Lower Standard of Livings

Published on 2012-12-11 13:20:00

While the knee-jerk response for many Americans to the decline of unions has been "good riddance", it ignore the obvious question of why?

Hostess Maneuver Deprived Pension

Published on 2012-12-11 07:00:00

Yet another pension to be transferred to the pension benefit guaranty corp? Headline:

The Fiscal Cliff or Dog And Pony Show Hides Economic Deceleration

Published on 2012-12-11 07:00:00

A significant deceleration of key economy trends suggests that the policy makers and/or the Fed will throw everything but the kitchen sink to jump start the economy soon (chart).

TIME and Message of the Market Implies A Change Underway

Published on 2012-12-10 14:49:00

The real causality of the fiscal cliff

Depressionary Box Easy As 1-2-3

Published on 2012-12-10 07:00:00

Rod, A "greater depression" began in 1998-2001.

Falling Unemployment Rate, Buyer Beware!

Published on 2012-12-07 13:15:00

For those that sleep better knowing the headline unemployment rate is falling, by all means knock yourself out following it.

Aspire to Achieve More

Published on 2012-12-07 08:49:00

Thank you, Pearse.

Employment Report and Gold's Reponse: Same Old Same Old

Published on 2012-12-07 08:32:00

The invisible hand knows the following: Job creation remains weak in comparison to the previous cycle (chart 1) Chart 1: Birth/Death Model (BDM) Contribution to Nonfarm Net Payrolls (NFP) Added/(Lost) Job creation has been shifting from

Adapt, Manipulate and Improvise

Published on 2012-12-06 20:38:00

Masters adapt, manipulate, and improvise while the rest of the world follows the rules.

Mailbox

Published on 2012-12-06 13:53:00

JB, The majority of the analysis presented on Insights is NOT designed for short-term trading. Short-term trading is a completely different ball game that requires a unique set of skills, tools, and mindset. And, no, 77%, or any number, tell

Accumulation in Crude Oil Despite Fear

Published on 2012-12-06 11:59:00

In terms of following the news, it's always been buyer beware. Those that read between the lines and follow the message of the market can turn disadvantage into advantage and unexpected into expected. Why is the invisible hand accumulating oil wh

Second Count of the AB Delay Underway

Published on 2012-12-06 08:29:00

Morning Observations:

Pros Slam Goldman Sachs' Bearish Call On Gold

Published on 2012-12-06 07:00:00

This bearish call is targeted directly at the weak hands and intended to trigger a black box response. "... Improving U.S. growth outlook will outweigh further Fed balance sheet expansion and the cycle in gold prices will likely turn in 2013," t

China listings may soon flee U.S., expert says

Published on 2012-12-05 09:58:00

This goes a lot further than an accounting rift. Headline:

Scarcity Developing Precious Metals

Published on 2012-12-05 09:11:00

A bottom set by TIME is coming in gold and silver. Wild fluctuations or “churn” in the precious metals money flows (table below), backwardation in the silver futures market, and sudden discontinuation of the silver forward rate (SIFO) by LBMA re

Turn Disadvantage Into Advantage

Published on 2012-12-05 07:00:00

Trading is a subtle form of warfare.

Precious Metals Building Cause & Energy

Published on 2012-12-05 07:00:00

A weak second count and disappearing data reflect markets growing more difficult to manage. Chart:

Somebody's Watching Me

Published on 2012-12-04 12:31:00

Any serious Michael Jackson (MJ) remembers Somebody's Watching Me by Rockwell. While MJ's chorus absolutely made this song, it shouldn't diminish Rockwell clever insight that somebody's watching me.

The Power of Fear

Published on 2012-12-04 10:56:00

Dear Readers; Kevin defines the power of fear, people will do almost anything to alleviate short term emotional pain, even when they believe that the future will be better. For the long-term gold investor, there's really no distinction for

Don't Trade Gold Without Understanding TIME & Techniques of Trend Managment

Published on 2012-12-04 07:00:00

The vast majority of gold traders are abused by the invisible because they lack a good understanding of TIME and the techniques of trend management. Trend managers desperately want to control/slow the A-wave (up) after the D-wave (DOWN).

Scarcity Doesn't Always Imply Desirability

Published on 2012-12-03 11:16:00

Scarcity within an infinite world of credit creation implies desirability (demand). The only thing scare about dollar denominated fixed income assets is private demand. Every wonder why the Fed is buying 90% of the new Treasuries and mortgage debt

Schools in 5 states to add at least 300 hours of classroom time in 2013

Published on 2012-12-03 08:54:00

Increasing classroom hours won't achieve much without creativity, thought-provoking teaching.

Why do coins have ridges?

Published on 2012-12-03 07:00:00

The old saying "you got clipped on that deal" explains why there's ridges on coins. Many Americans educated by the doctrines of Football rather than money are probably scratching their heads and thinking why would a block from behind at or below the

Cost Push Train Keeps Rolling Along

Published on 2012-12-03 07:00:00

The cost push inflation train remains a non-event until it the number of Americans on or in need of public assistance becomes too large to deny or ignore. Headline: Fedex hiking ground shipping rates almost 5% in 2013 FedEx Corp , the

Use Multidimensional Reasoning Or Don't Trade Gold

Published on 2012-12-01 20:58:00

Use logic, not emotions while great advice from Jim finds execution in probably less than 1% of investors/traders.

Bullish Setup In Crude Oil

Published on 2012-12-01 07:00:00

A DI reading approaching 70% represents a bullish setup and favors higher crude oil prices in the coming months. Chart: Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion Index (DI) ------------------------------------- Insights is intended

Fiscal Cliff Watch Provides Excellent Supressive Fire

Published on 2012-11-30 12:41:00

MSM's intense focus on the fiscal cliff, one channel has even provided a countdown ticker to maximize fear should provide substantial cover (suppressive fire) for invisible hand to get from point A to B in the charts below. Chart 1: Gold London

Copper Shortage Seen Extending as China Accelerates: Commodities

Published on 2012-11-30 07:00:00

Copper will run again when the 'proper hands' regain control of the long side of the trade. Chart:

How the Powerball lottery is really a tax on the poor

Published on 2012-11-29 09:59:00

The slogan, tax the rich and save the poor, won't balance the budget or provide a solution to the fiscal cliff.

Weak Opponents Allow Invisible Hand To Dominate The Short-Term

Published on 2012-11-29 09:21:00

Gold, a counter-intuitive game for the masses, is dominated by the actions of the invisible hand over the short-term.

Gold and Stocks Trend Together

Published on 2012-11-29 07:00:00

Gold and stocks trend together.

Miss. River may hit record low, halt traffic in Dec.

Published on 2012-11-29 07:00:00

While the drought of 2012 might be considered old news, it keeps chugging along despite the daily distraction of the fiscal cliff watch. The mighty Mississippi is primed to visit record lows as rainfall remains well below average in many sections of

One Fiscal Cliff Fix: Prevent Government From Borrowing

Published on 2012-11-28 14:39:00

What qualifies as an expert today? If we taxed revenue at 100% we still couldn't fix the fiscal cliff created by both recognized and hidden liabilities.

Mailbox: Yen Review and The Delusion And Madness of The Crowd

Published on 2012-11-28 10:44:00

Kris, Concentration continue to paint a bullish setup in the Yen (chart 1). Chart 1: Yen (FXY) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest

The Managing of Gold

Published on 2012-11-28 07:00:00

The window of opportunity to transfer control from the weak to strong hands doesn't last long.

Cox and Archer: Why $16 Trillion Only Hints at the True U.S. Debt

Published on 2012-11-28 07:00:00

How many times we written this in one form or another? Hiding the government's liabilities from the public makes it seem that we can tax our way out of mounting deficits. We can't. Headline: Cox and Archer: Why $16 Trillion Only Hints at the

Euro Money Flows Bullish or Bearish?

Published on 2012-11-27 18:37:00

Chart: Euro (FXE) And Euro Diffusion Index (DI) Euro Money Flows Bullish or Bearish? (Click Chart For Larger View)Public OpinionPoll ResultsEric De Groot's Insights ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to refle

Could A ‘Solar Maximum’ Event Spark Food Riots And Meltdowns?

Published on 2012-11-27 07:00:00

Selling fear is big business.

Another Line Will Form As Gold Rallies

Published on 2012-11-27 07:00:00

Weak hands chase strength and sell weakness in gold.

AB Transition "Delay" Looks Normal

Published on 2012-11-26 11:09:00

Transition from A-wave (up) to B-wave (down) following 1-2-3 count. Observations: Expect the weak hands (including many within the gold community) to panic at every price decline until the B-wave bottom; their participation will be minimal to

NRF: Record 247 million shopped holiday weekend

Published on 2012-11-26 07:47:00

According to the National Retail Federation, an organization known to hype things a bit, over 80% of the population shopped this weekend buying products largely made in overseas.

The Balance Between Federal And State Rights

Published on 2012-11-26 07:00:00

The delicate social balance between Federal and State rights will likely be disturbed by stagnant job creation and/or destruction into 2017.

Bing says Detroit employees will go on furlough Jan. 1 to avert city cash crisis

Published on 2012-11-23 07:00:00

As long as the formula, a vicious downward cycle of economic growth and tax collection, remains in a secular downtrend of 2001, the scope and size of city operations will continue to contract across America.

Happy Thanksgiving to All

Published on 2012-11-21 16:00:00

A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving: ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider o

Los Angeles Set to Rival Chicago With Highest Sales Levy

Published on 2012-11-21 11:24:00

“If we continue to cut, we will drastically affect the services that we deliver to our citizens.” Who cares if entrepreneurship squeezed by the costs of delivering services to our citizens flees to countries where standard of living increases

Creative Destruction - The Day Twinkies Died

Published on 2012-11-21 09:35:00

If Hostess was buried knee deep in toxic assets would the government have become a part owner of the Twinkie empire?

Soros Buying Gold as Record Prices Seen on Stimulus

Published on 2012-11-21 07:00:00

It wasn't long ago when Soro's 'negative' comments about gold had everyone's undies in a bundle. Headline:

Cashing in on food stamps

Published on 2012-11-21 07:00:00

The path of profligacy often a byproduct of good intentions is difficult to control once chosen.

The Flexibility of Money

Published on 2012-11-20 11:18:00

The flexibility of money has been displayed throughout history.

AB Transition In Gold Update

Published on 2012-11-20 11:08:00

AB transitions represent the transfer of control from weak to strong hands.

Morning News

Published on 2012-11-20 07:09:00

Bad advice. The consequences of a recession needed to "fix the debt" could easily spin out of control. Social and political consequences involved with an economic contraction would be significant. Talk, however, is cheap. Everything will be do

Prison of Debt Paralyzes West

Published on 2012-11-20 07:00:00

Only democratic countries?

The Human Tendency Toward Profligacy

Published on 2012-11-19 14:18:00

I've presented a road map for gold during what I call the AB transition in great detail for the community.

Japanese Yen Locked In Infinite Loop

Published on 2012-11-19 10:33:00

Traders see chance to trade the Yen for a short-term profit (chart) Investors see the following infinite loop: Market forces pushing up the Yen. Rising Yen makes Japanese exports uncompetitive. Bank of Japan (BOJ) devalues it currency through

Simulated Chaos Is Given Birth From Control

Published on 2012-11-19 09:20:00

You watch too many movies...Roham.

Someone Is Loading Up The Truck In Gold

Published on 2012-11-19 09:05:00

The table below illustrates that someone is loading up the truck in gold (Dealing With Complexity In A Non-linear World).

Community Nearing Capitulation On Gold

Published on 2012-11-18 10:00:00

Jim recently mentioned that email sentiment within the community could be the lowest on record at jsminset.com.

Does the Trend In Oil Confirm The Concerns of The Lemmings?

Published on 2012-11-17 10:13:00

Selling gold because economic concerns ranging from the fiscal cliff, civil unrest in Greece, and/or declining oil prices is suggesting deflation around the corner? Fear is a powerful motivator.

JPMorgan, Credit Suisse settle with SEC for $417 million

Published on 2012-11-17 07:00:00

Released quietly after the market's close on Friday to minimize exposure is SOP.

GLD Another Conduit of Supply To Guide The Lemmings Off The Cliff

Published on 2012-11-17 07:00:00

Thanks Tim. Don't confuse my explanation with Adam Smith's invisible hand reference. What I describe is more visible and far less complex.

Dealing With Complexity In A Non-linear World

Published on 2012-11-16 09:24:00

I realize that understanding can by crushed by weight of complexity, but I know few processes adequately defined by linear reasoning (insert tab A into slot A). Investors and traders even those that follow Jim's approach as a creator of production an

Retirement 'Perfect Storm' Coming in 2013

Published on 2012-11-16 07:00:00

Anyone building a short list of the most over-hyped economic buzz words of 2012, might want to consider adding: Fiscal Cliff Balanced Approach Perfect Storm

Gold Follows The ABCD Cycle

Published on 2012-11-15 14:44:00

Gold follows an A(minor up), B(minor down/consolidation), C(Major UP), and D(Major DOWN) cycle. The last major buy signal for gold came July 27th 2012 after the D-wave "hook".

Print Unlimited (Insert Currency) Still Causes Black Friday Stampede Out of Gold Shares

Published on 2012-11-15 09:27:00

Headline - Japan's Likely Next PM Calls on BOJ to Print Unlimited Yen Blah, blah,blah, print unlimited yen to achieve new inflation target.

U2′s Bono Warns Fiscal Cliff Cuts Will Hurt World’s Poor

Published on 2012-11-15 09:00:00

Sunday Bloody Sunday hell!

Anti-austerity marches turn violent across southern Europe

Published on 2012-11-15 08:24:00

In the 30's, a global economic contraction paved the way for today's socialism. Ironic how today's global economic contraction will destroy that which it helped create. While the signs are everywhere, few see them through the daily distractions.

How 'Fiscal Cliff' Could Affect Mortgage Interest Deduction

Published on 2012-11-15 07:00:00

Nothing will boot the middle class in bum faster than reduction or elimination of mortgage interest deduction. Many within the gold community forget that real estate, not gold (or silver), is a huge determinant of wealth for the middle class. Am

Poll shows Americans want deal to avert fiscal cliff

Published on 2012-11-15 07:00:00

While Americans want to avert another fiscal cliff,

Open Interest Is An Important Timing Tool During The AB Wave Transition

Published on 2012-11-14 13:40:00

The actions of the invisible hand could give two hoots about the emotional state of the gold community.

Gold Will Lead Most Assets to Higher Highs in 2013

Published on 2012-11-14 12:57:00

Paul, The latest leading formula and formula post are likely the best and most up-to-date charts on Insights. I keep hoping the elves would tackle my chart database, but apparently they're too worried about the "fiscal cliff" and "sex scandals" t

Fiscal Cliff Most Likely A Non-event

Published on 2012-11-14 07:00:00

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 As Jim suggests below, the fiscal cliff despite all the hype will likely be non-event that affords the invisible hand the opportunity to reposition for the 2013 equity market rally to ne

Move It Or Lose It, Buddy

Published on 2012-11-13 10:48:00

The market rarely bits a trader in the ass, in effect, saying "move it or lose it, buddy."

Institutionalizing of Liquidity/Bailouts As Public Policy

Published on 2012-11-13 07:00:00

Currency induced (cost-push) inflation and crushing debt levels have lower the standard of living for nearly all Americans. This has forced many to survive with limited to no savings since the late 1990's (chart). The trend of reckless consumption

Distribution In Lumber

Published on 2012-11-13 07:00:00

Traders might want to consider a defensive lumber stance over the short-term. Chart:

US Treasury Bond Market Showing Concentrated Accumulation

Published on 2012-11-12 09:24:00

Bullish money flows (chart 1) precede yet another technical breakout in the bond market (chart 2).

Italy's Monti says he would prefer not to stay on as PM

Published on 2012-11-12 08:38:00

Monti as a non-elected technocrat knows what's coming in a couple of years. Headline:

It Will Be Liquidity (Bailout) over Austerity

Published on 2012-11-12 07:00:00

American leadership speaks of balanced budgets, but the markets know that strategy of higher taxation and lower spending can only be described as pushing on a string. Total revenues as a percentage of GDP (national income) has fluctuated within a ti

Food stamps: Once associated with the poor, now commonly used among college students

Published on 2012-11-10 11:27:00

The baby boomers heavily indebted and growing ever dependent on social programs above and beyond social security have to be concerned that younger generations, the backbone of future revenues used to fund socialism, are also growing more dependent of

The Sh*t Always Hits the Fan Before Real Change Occurs

Published on 2012-11-09 18:43:00

Anyone investing in the gold (&silver) must accept the following: The gold market is managed.

Rising Consumer Expectations Bullish (Really Bullish) For Gold

Published on 2012-11-09 13:31:00

Rising "confidence" is not bearish for gold long-term. Strong negative correlation between gold and consumer expectations during secular bull market phases debunks this well-traveled inference. The price of gold will accelerate to the upside when

U.S. businesses seek a more competitive economy

Published on 2012-11-09 08:30:00

International competitiveness of a country or region is a function of labor force skill, natural competitive advantages, relative tax rates, political stability, rule of law, sound leadership, etc.

US Stock Market and Gold Headed in 2013 Despite Fiscal Cliff

Published on 2012-11-09 07:00:00

Politicians guided by their crisis playbooks should produce yet another (half-ass) solution that kicks the can only as far as the next election.

Californians approve massive tax hike on the wealthy

Published on 2012-11-08 13:28:00

Idaho suddenly looks a lot better to many wealthy Californians. When the size of the wealthiest 1% of Californians shrinks, will the definition of rich be redefined to include less wealthy individuals?

Bullish Money Flows, Favorable Seasonality Coincides & Growing Pessimism Toward Gold

Published on 2012-11-08 08:00:00

Unexpected gold rallies tend to materialize when seasonality aligns with bullish money flow setups. Seasonality for gold has turned bullish (table).

The Invisible Hand Is Not Restricted To The Gold Market

Published on 2012-11-07 10:43:00

The seeds of today's global equity market decline were sown in September.

AB Transitions Test Investor's Skill Level

Published on 2012-11-07 09:16:00

Kristian, Nearly all the actions of the invisible hand are designed to exploit emotional-decision making. The C-wave is coming. History forecasts that it will begin when the spec trading boxes and gold community is heavily positioned against

Get Ready for Cheap Money 'Run Amok': Rogers

Published on 2012-11-07 08:39:00

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Jim published a cartoon that encapsulated America's Election Day 2012 choice extremely well. /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyl

Growing Number of Millionaires Doesn't Mean They're Prospering

Published on 2012-11-07 07:00:00

The number of millionaires has rising from 4 to 5.1 million between 2008 and 2011.

Kodak retirees lose health, welfare benefits

Published on 2012-11-06 16:27:00

The loss of health and welfare benefits across corporate America is an all too familiar story for most.

Patience Promotes Emotional Balance During AB Transition Flushes

Published on 2012-11-06 08:30:00

Well-timed release of paper supply initiates the operation and ignites the decline.Fear does the heavy lifting by flushing out the black box trading programs and numerous other weak hands until the invisible hand regains control of the trend before t

Millennials are eating out less

Published on 2012-11-06 07:00:00

Millennials (18-to-34 age group) without the benefit of debt-fueled consumption supported in large part by the housing bubble (asset inflation) are eating out less because real (nominal less inflation) service-producing wages have been declining for

Final polls: Too close to call

Published on 2012-11-06 07:00:00

While the Presidential race remains too close to call, it's not without some certainty.

Be Wary of the Phrase, "I Was Right But Too Early"

Published on 2012-11-05 08:09:00

Simplified Trading Principles of the Masters: Act with discipline (not emotions) without ego away from the crowd. Identify the secular trend. Follow the trend. My add - Follow the management of the trend via money flows. My add - When price no l

Market Still Building Cause For Another Rally?

Published on 2012-11-05 07:00:00

The what if game has many investors expecting the worst after the Presidential election.

Merkel: Euro debt crisis will last 5 years or more

Published on 2012-11-05 07:00:00

"A bit of strictness" or austerity carries social consequences that will translate into "a bit of looseness" instead.

AB Transition Not All About Sticking It To The Little Guy In Gold

Published on 2012-11-03 09:16:00

AB transition is all about control: Control of the "hearts and minds" of traders and investors Control of the trend from reportable traders, i.e. the spec funds and the black boxes they control. Anyone that thinks this transition is all about

Fear Is Easier Than Patience

Published on 2012-11-02 10:54:00

Growing trend volatility and soon to be terminated game of high-stakes political poker have pushed the first reaction deeper than its predecessors (chart 1).

Labor Market Sends Message of Deterioration While Few Listen

Published on 2012-11-02 08:29:00

The first causality of a decline Republic is the truth.

Few Wanted To Touch The Euro This Summer

Published on 2012-11-01 13:17:00

How many investors were bullish on the Euro when negative headlines ruled the tape this summer?

Taxes Don't Drive Out California Rich: Study

Published on 2012-11-01 08:00:00

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 A study of limited scope and duration does not change historical precedence that money moves with its feet.

Why Germany Wants to See its US Gold

Published on 2012-11-01 07:30:00

The old expression "possession is nine-tenths of the law" reminds us that ownership is easier to maintain and enforce with possession of something. Ownership of gold, silver, or stock certificates (fractional ownership of corporations) is easier to

Bank of Japan Announces Fresh Economic Stimulus

Published on 2012-11-01 07:00:00

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) wants a weaker but controlled Yen. Instead, they get rising Yen despite a growing number of interventions because the invisible hand controls the trend (chart). The Yen will decline, but it won't be a controlled descent.

Consumer spending up 0.8% in September; 3rd straight monthly gain

Published on 2012-11-01 07:00:00

This time series has been corrupted by numerous statistical adjustments over the years, but its the direction of the trend that's most important.

Stock, Gold, Silver, Etc Are Highly Correlated

Published on 2012-10-31 10:27:00

Those looking for a Frankenstorm in stocks* (implying something more than a correction) be advised that gold and gold stocks would offer little downside protection without a significant change in the current monetary system.

Calls For Austerity Will Go Silent

Published on 2012-10-31 09:05:00

Headline:

Hurricane Sandy cost may hit $50 billion

Published on 2012-10-31 08:53:00

Headlines such as one below will be followed by the inevitable MSM spin that reconstruction will be good from the economy. Headline: Hurricane Sandy cost may hit $50 billion WASHINGTON — Superstorm Sandy will end up causing about $20 billion

Weak Hands Freakout, Strong Hands Plan

Published on 2012-10-31 08:46:00

The weak hands freak out while the strong hands plan. A-wave (up) to B-wave (down) represents consolidation to transfer control of the trend. Three counts of accumulation/distribution mark terminate the B-wave.

Greece delays austerity vote, warns of 'chaos'

Published on 2012-10-31 07:00:00

As long as interest rates remain below dividend yields, expect capital to continue flowing into gold, silver, and stocks to the point of extreme concentration (buying climax) despite all pessimism and a growing number of calls for austerity. /*

Austerity Will Not Be The Path To Prosperity in Western Economies

Published on 2012-10-30 07:00:00

Hubert Hoover chose austerity as the path to prosperity in 1930.

The Invisible Hand Is A Master of What the Public Ignores

Published on 2012-10-30 07:00:00

Those frustrated by timing gold have two choices.

Sobering Up The Western World Economy Demands Price Managment

Published on 2012-10-29 08:50:00

Morning Observations of the AB (wave) Transition: A-wave rallies which includes the AB transition (A-wave to B-wave transition) is characterized by fear and doubt.

In Final Days of the Race, Fighting County by County

Published on 2012-10-28 19:00:00

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 The 2012 Presidential race could easily be compared to a choice between sugar and high fructose corn syrup.

Invisible Hand Buying Dips In Bond Suggests Little Has Changed For Now

Published on 2012-10-28 15:00:00

The invisible hand continues to accumulate US Treasury bonds into weakness as a growing number of experts turn bearish on them.

The Bears Never Seem To Anticipate Muddle Through

Published on 2012-10-26 10:19:00

The US economy will continue defying the bears by muddling through as long as nonresidential (chart 1) and residential (chart 2) fixed investments maintain their upward march. Chart 1:

Get Ready: Everything Is Going to Cost More Next Year

Published on 2012-10-26 07:00:00

That's how inflation works - everything costs more as time passes. Headline: Get Ready: Everything Is Going to Cost More Next Year Consumers will have to dig deeper into their pockets next year to pay for costlier health care, more expensive grocery bills and higher taxes, an extra drag on the country's already slow-moving economy. The additional outlays look set to test the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Predator Versus Prey in Financial Markets

Published on 2012-10-26 07:00:00

"Do not be stampeded into turning over your gold investments to the greedy shorts now open mouthed and waiting like a wolf for its prey." Good stuff!

The Fiscal Cliff Not the Bus That Runs Us Over

Published on 2012-10-25 12:36:00

If MSM is talking about the fiscal cliff as the bus that will run over the economy, stock market, and US consumer, expect it to be a non-event.

The Global Trend of Economic Stimulation, Bailouts, and Currency Devaluation

Published on 2012-10-25 08:05:00

While the perma-bears embrace the deflationary argument of lower equity and gold prices, they ignore the fact that the world is heading down an inflationary path defined by endless stimulus, bailouts, and currency devaluation.

America's near poor: 30 million and struggling

Published on 2012-10-24 13:32:00

Thirty million Americans struggling, increasingly pissed off, and ready to blame someone for their troubles.

Partrick Star Knows How To Handle Gold

Published on 2012-10-24 10:54:00

Traders bullish and bearish on gold at setup 1 and 2 (chart 1) might considered joining Patrick Star under his rock by holding the A-wave declines rather than playing the timing game against the invisible hand. While the invisible hand's primary target is spec funds' black boxes, it considered any collateral damage to retail money (including the gold community) as an added bonus. Chart... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Silhouettes of Price Management By The Invisible Hand

Published on 2012-10-24 08:00:00

What market tied to national interest (security) is not managed?

AB Transition In Gold

Published on 2012-10-23 15:53:00

The highest price after the D-wave bottom marks the end of the A-wave rally.

Even The Suggestion of Another Bag Holder Could Open Pandora's Box

Published on 2012-10-23 13:00:00

Jim excellent bag holder reasoning, if it plays out, will have significant implications on confidence and capital flows.

A Slow Reduction In Standard of Livings Across The Western World

Published on 2012-10-23 10:24:00

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Fed considering upping QE3 size and language

Published on 2012-10-23 08:33:00

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

QE to Infinity

Published on 2012-10-23 08:08:00

Those worried that QE will be finite should read the headlines.

Debt A Threat To National Interests

Published on 2012-10-22 09:07:00

Debt, a threat to national interests positioned as security below, is the main reason why QE will be infinite and investors expecting a massive D-wave decline after the A-wave advance of the ABCD gold cycle will be severely disappointed. Headline: Why debt is a threat to national security The national debt is not on the official agenda for Monday's presidential debate on foreign... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

A-Wave Delay To B-wave Bottom

Published on 2012-10-22 07:30:00

Gold and silver have entered the

Climbing the Wall of Worry And Building Cause

Published on 2012-10-21 07:00:00

TRIN spike clusters often mark downside exhaustion and tradable bottoms as long as time

The Importance of Spreading Activity In Gold & Silver

Published on 2012-10-19 13:30:00

Only a

Another A-wave Delay In Gold Underway

Published on 2012-10-19 11:34:00

How many times have we seen gold collapse after the London physical market closes? This elevator shaft style decline is characteristic of a paper operation and should come as no surprise to regular readers. The A-wave delay unfolding as I write transfers ownership of the trend from the strong to weak hands despite limited downside risk. It accomplishes this feat through a fear based chop... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

30-year mortgage rates falls to near-record low

Published on 2012-10-19 09:50:00

The confluence of "too big to fail"

France's 'Rich' Tax = Deals on Paris Mansions

Published on 2012-10-19 07:00:00

The main fallacy of the

Retail sales point to stronger economic growth

Published on 2012-10-19 07:00:00

The economy will continue showing nominal growth as long as retail sales (retailers) lead the broad market higher. Let the experts argue over adjectives chosen to describe the rate of growth. Observation, not opinion, is the key to timing the stock market’s transition from up to down. The

Why Apple will never bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.

Published on 2012-10-18 14:45:00

The US relinquished its "Made in the USA" for "Designed In The USA" label

Market Says Equity and Gold Bears Will Get Mauled Again

Published on 2012-10-18 10:13:00

The message of the market says that the equity and gold bears

Morning Mailbox

Published on 2012-10-18 08:14:00

Summers: 'Hugely Irresponsible' to Dive Off 'Fiscal Cliff'

Published on 2012-10-18 07:00:00

Austerity, either

Different Year, Same A-wave Setup

Published on 2012-10-18 07:00:00

The 'body blocks' during the NY session could very well be politically motivated.

New rules, tough talk as Singapore seeks to end tax haven image

Published on 2012-10-18 07:00:00

Singapore 's economy, well run and managed, is attracting a capital from around the world. Headline:

Gold And Silver Building Cause

Published on 2012-10-17 09:52:00

Gold and silver building cause: A-wave (phase) represents the market building energy for the C-wave breakout (chart 1).

Jim Rogers: Neither Obama nor Romney Are Worth My Vote

Published on 2012-10-17 07:45:00

The Presidential candidates talk a good game before the election, but the real world distinction between the two in

Mailbox

Published on 2012-10-17 07:00:00

Denny, Timing is a dynamic animal.

Seniors on Social Security squeezed by rising prices

Published on 2012-10-17 07:00:00

Both 'Tax the Rich or 'Austerity for the

C-Wave Rally In Gold Is Coming

Published on 2012-10-16 09:27:00

A big rally driven by a flight to safety/quality from the ever-expanding debt crisis is coming. Unfortunately, today’s short-term traders tend to care more about when than why. This bias drives more failure than success stories in this business. The A-wave pauses (dips) represent price building cause in order to jump the creek with force. This process is also known as the accumulation of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Further Dollar Weakness Ahead

Published on 2012-10-16 07:00:00

The best looking horse in the fiat

The Formula Continues Its Counter Trend Rally

Published on 2012-10-15 07:00:00

As long as the formula's

The Meaning of "Earthquake Reading" Changes With Phases

Published on 2012-10-14 19:00:00

Amir, Earthquakes or warnings before a significant trend change

Selling Doubt In The MSM Matrix

Published on 2012-10-14 13:28:00

The 1-2-3 setup doesn't mean all hell is about to break loose in gold.

Are You Ready To Play Today?

Published on 2012-10-13 11:08:00

An interesting email exchange reminded me of a question I often ask myself, "Are you ready to play today" I propose that as a result of human evolution that all crowds have a great deal of ‘nasty’ people in them. This is why the delusion and madness of crowds/(mobs) are dangerous. Competition for limited resources has encoded various manifestation of “nasty” into the DNA of all primates... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and mo [..]

Gold Managed But Not Controlled

Published on 2012-10-13 07:00:00

I hinted back in September that fishing hook were coming.

Greece's biggest company flees, bottler CCH to Switzerland

Published on 2012-10-12 07:00:00

Flight of capital from economic uncertainty is not some abstract concept confined to

ABCD Cycle In Gold

Published on 2012-10-12 07:00:00

Dear Roham & Insight Readers; While negative DI readings look ominous, they are nothing more than supply intended to slow the A-wave advance. The previous A-wave advances had similar ominous-looking setups that preceded

Imitation jewellery sales rise as gold prices soar

Published on 2012-10-11 09:42:00

From politics to keeping up with the Jones next door, form over substance has become the standard for many generations of Americans.

Games States Play with Underfunded Pensions

Published on 2012-10-11 07:42:00

The problem of under funded pensions swept under the rug for years through various forms of accounting flexibility will see the light of day after 2015.

US Treasury Bonds Not Dead

Published on 2012-10-11 07:00:00

Volume contracting at support suggests waning downside force (chart 1) Invisible hand continues to accumulate weakness (chart 2) Conclusion Contracting volume and accumulation of weakness by the invisible hand

Chicken Little Can't Tell The Difference Between Risk On/Off

Published on 2012-10-10 08:37:00

Risk on/off Observations: The risk on/off oscillator pushed higher in September (chart 1). This suggests higher prices as long as the oscillator remains above zero. Bulls sentiment as a percentage of Bullish and Bearish sentiment at 50% is not concentrated (chart 2) Intermediate tops tend to coincide extreme bullish sentiment. Smart money rarely stands with the crowd. Gold and silver rally,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Health Coverage Requirements Will Generate Unintended Consequences

Published on 2012-10-10 07:00:00

Looming health coverage requirements will generate unintended consequences as long as owners of capital are able to exercise free will.

Merkel Lands in Athens as Greek Debt Picture Darkens

Published on 2012-10-09 09:05:00

Liquidity to infinity requires trust, cooperation, and above all confidence in leadership.

Mr. Budders Has The Right Idea

Published on 2012-10-09 07:00:00

One would have to be lounging in a warm dryer to have missed them. Judging the quality of explanations for today's weakness in gold, Mr. Budder’s favorite lounging spot is quickly losing elbow room. A massive wall of paper supply illustrated by collapsing money flows (chart 1) and lease spreads (chart 2) will be protecting the flanks of the economic illusion until November 6th. It's all part... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Growing Trend Energy Suggests Higher Prices

Published on 2012-10-09 07:00:00

The behavioral urge to stand with the crowd is strong in humans. The ability to fight this tendency, though, often defines success or failure in the investment world. New highs in ADN(E) suggest growing trend energy. New highs while price lags badly favors a stock market rally, likely to new highs, until the window of time closes. Funny how the market always seems to send a bullish message... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Race To A Cashless Society

Published on 2012-10-08 09:16:00

The race to a cashless society, a system intended to hide the monetary sins of and increase taxable cash flow for big brother, wanders into new territory with each passing day.

Calif. governor takes action as gasoline prices hit new all-time high

Published on 2012-10-08 07:41:00

The public sector institutes so many rules and regulations, also known

Life Follows Cycles, The Coming History Lesson Will Not Be Unique

Published on 2012-10-08 07:00:00

Humanity has been struggling against/(living with)

The More Big Brother Clamps Down, The More It Loses Control

Published on 2012-10-05 14:01:00

George Orwell knew that big brother in its various forms will always try to control the masses. That is, until its lack of understanding of market forces and behavior dynamics of confidence lost, best encapsulated by the phrase flight of capital, inevitable leads to its own demise. As long as HOAs fight the secular bear market trends in real estate, they only invite more conflict.

The Trends Clearly Show The Worm Has Turned In The Labor Market

Published on 2012-10-05 08:36:00

For anyone not

Food Prices Jump to Six-Month High as Dairy Costs Rise

Published on 2012-10-04 07:50:00

QE1, QE2, QE3...QE(n)

Climbing the Wall of Worry, Risk-On verses Risk-Off Trade

Published on 2012-10-04 07:00:00

The Risk On/Off Oscillator generated a positive crossover as of August 2012 (chart).

N.Y. attorney general expects more mortgage suits

Published on 2012-10-03 15:50:00

Lots of talk of litigation doesn't necessary mean change lies around the next corner.

Cycles Are Windows of Opportunity

Published on 2012-10-03 10:22:00

Those waiting to buy gold's next big decline (>10%) could find themselves watching the next C-wave advance from the sidelines. A-wave (up) and B-wave (down), best described as price climbing the wall of worry, are quite similar.

The Coming Monetary Reset or Natural Transition?

Published on 2012-10-03 07:00:00

Pete, Impending reset of the monetary system - this hypothesis

Home Prices Relative to Gold

Published on 2012-10-02 09:34:00

The first casualty of greed induced by rising prices is objectivity.

Mom and Pop Investors Not Noted For Their Track Record

Published on 2012-10-02 07:00:00

The at some point.

Corn inventory drops to eight-year low; futures prices jump

Published on 2012-10-01 10:26:00

As long as the invisible hand continues accumulating the decline, I'm a buyer above 60%. A close above 60% suggests the following is not over: Drought 2012 Pain at the grocery store Corn bears' hiberation Chart:

Watch The Rich Disappear

Published on 2012-10-01 08:47:00

Watch the rich disappear as history repeats.

Bonds to Stocks Reallocation Maintains The Illusion And Could Setup Another "Flash Crash"

Published on 2012-10-01 07:00:00

Central planners continue to chase money out of US Treasuries into stocks to foster an economic

Pork Shortage Everywhere Except For Politics

Published on 2012-09-28 20:25:00

Observations: The severe drought of 2012 will be rockin' Trader Dan's bread and butter in 2013. Live hogs are moving up the money flow table (see table).

Anticipation Of and Profit From Change

Published on 2012-09-28 09:38:00

Paul addresses some interesting points about how human behavior and natural cycles are interwoven into commerce and the movement of capital across the globe.

Once 'Still Ok', Now 'Getting Scary', Next 'Save Me'

Published on 2012-09-28 09:14:00

We suggested that the economy was transforming from ‘still ok’ to 'getting scary'

Up Is Down In Election Years

Published on 2012-09-28 07:00:00

I'll present the following trends below for those not averse to independent thinking.

Forget the Black or Freckled Swan, Follow The Message of The Market

Published on 2012-09-27 14:11:00

Black swan, freckled swan, or

Being Green Or Trying To Appease a Guilty Conscience?

Published on 2012-09-27 10:14:00

Bob, I propose that the older generations will be even more pissed off

Lost Decades for Short Term Yield Savers

Published on 2012-09-27 07:00:00

Observations about the lost decade phenomenon: It's been lost decades (plural) for the average Japanese saver. Japan has gone nowhere since 1989. It will become lost decades for the average American saver as well. Those that purchased gold, silver, and high quality mining shares with their savings will avoid this experience (chart). Chart:

The Bitching Indicator Suggests A Fishing Hook Forming

Published on 2012-09-26 10:18:00

Jim’s email indicator implies that the community is beginning to believe that QE won’t work and gold and silver are dead. I suspect that computer analysis incoming email sentiment would yield a highly productive trading tool called the “bitching indicator.” Casual observations of Jim’s 'stand strong, tall, etc' posts relative to my timing techniques imply impeccable timing. Gun slinging... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

Real Estate Bulls Getting Closer But Nowhere Near Understanding The Cyles In Play

Published on 2012-09-26 09:31:00

Add another tens years and replace peak with bottom (in real terms) and you'll start to comprehend how many body bags have yet to be filled in the real estate market.

Empty Promises Are Nothing New

Published on 2012-09-25 10:19:00

Bob, Why should politicians have exclusive rights to empty promises? This strategy has been used the dawn of empires. Leaders

Social, Political, and Economic Tension Rising as Global Economy Decays

Published on 2012-09-25 08:07:00

2012-2020 will likely prove as challenging as 1932-1940. Headline: China carrier a show of force as Japan tension festers TOKYO/BEIJING (Reuters) - China sent its first aircraft carrier into formal service on Tuesday amid a tense maritime dispute with Japan in a show of force that could worry its neighbors. China's Ministry of Defense said the newly named Liaoning aircraft carrier... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Climbing the Wall of Worry

Published on 2012-09-25 07:00:00

Standing alone with a singular mind while the crowd chastises you for being different

There's A Customer (Sucker) Born Every Minute

Published on 2012-09-25 07:00:00

P.T. Barnum often suggested that "there's a customer born every minute". Over time, this was transposed into "there's a sucker born every minute". Either way, people will believe almost anything if the 'show' is big enough. Stop wasting Jim's time by suggesting that QE will do nothing. While QE won't spark a new super cycle of capital investment and/or meaningful job creation, it will... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

A-Wave Precious Metals Rally Not Over

Published on 2012-09-24 08:24:00

A-wave

Discipline, One Mind, And Recognize & Follow

Published on 2012-09-24 07:00:00

Doing well, thank you. Most, if not all, of my proprietary analysis is designed to execute the

Whatever It Takes

Published on 2012-09-24 07:00:00

Whatever it takes mentality has transformed bailouts funds from billions to trillions in

What Does the Invisible Hand Already Know About The Final End Game?

Published on 2012-09-22 11:38:00

Jim's timeline commentary does a great job explaining why QE has become the global policy tool of choice to kick the can

Look Beyond the Chess Piece In Hand

Published on 2012-09-21 12:53:00

Keys to Investment Success Discpline Singular Voice Ability to reading the markets Chess masters win

A Sharply Increasing Trend in U.S. Layoffs

Published on 2012-09-21 12:34:00

While QE kick the can down the road a little further, it cannot lift it up.

Economic Effects of QE Will Be Realized Soon Says The Markets

Published on 2012-09-21 08:21:00

Agreed, the message of the market

Harvard Losing Out to South Dakota in Graduate Pay: Commodities

Published on 2012-09-21 07:07:00

Econ 101 explains why Harvard University 's graduates are earning less than those from the South Dakota School of Mines & Technology; The price of labor moves higher when

Exclusive: U.S. mortgage task force to act soon

Published on 2012-09-21 06:52:00

More political arm waving designed to change perceptions and garner votes. Headline:

Oil's Flash Crash Focuses On Symptoms Rather Than Intention

Published on 2012-09-20 07:00:00

In a world where politics (and political interests) and big money are deeply intertwined stable markets such crude oil can take on the appearance of

Trading Around Core Gold Position - Don't

Published on 2012-09-19 12:23:00

Jim's response to trading around core gold position, Eric, I would say unless you are an accomplished trader - don't. Jim Sent from my iPad Good advice, Jim.

Trading Around Core Gold Position

Published on 2012-09-19 09:08:00

Investors unable to deny the urge to trade gold should do so only on the periphery of their portfolio. Core holdings purchased with proceeds of periphery trading and designed for long-term profits should not be touched until the secular bull market reaches the mania phase. My ability to trade around the core is supported by 15+ years of intensive computer study of price, time, and money flows.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mortgage Lending Slid to 16-Year Low in 2011

Published on 2012-09-19 07:00:00

Watch out below!

Japan Joins The Can Kicking Party

Published on 2012-09-19 06:56:00

The list of countries devaluing their currencies to strike a blow at the global economic slowdown continues to grow: Europe China United States Now Japan (tipped by the message of the market last week) In the 1930's today's kicking the can down the road policies were called beggar thy neighbor.

We versus They Not Helping Anyone

Published on 2012-09-18 12:16:00

Big government ‘dependency’ ranging from transfer payments to corporate and farm subsidizes and bailouts influence nearly all demographics within America.

As The Global Economy Slowly Implodes

Published on 2012-09-18 10:34:00

As the global economy slowly implodes, old social, political, and economic wounds are opened across the globe. the world's leadership will be tested. Failed leadership, as seen most recently in the early stages of the Great Depression (1929-1949), will create a power vacuum

FedEx says economy is worsening, cuts outlook

Published on 2012-09-18 10:01:00

Fed confirms what Insight readers have known for months that the global economy is worsening. A slowing global economy, however, does not necessary equal lower stock prices. Lower stock prices are coming, but likely not until the headlines have convinced the majority of investors that the bull market has no end. Call 2012 today's price action similar to 1935 or 1945; I prefer the former. A... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

You Have To Let It All Go - Fear, Doubt & Disbelief

Published on 2012-09-18 07:00:00

Doubting market direction is easy to do. That's why characterize many stock market rallies as climbing the wall of worry. Now that price has broken above the March 2012 high, an event forecasted week's ago by positive divergences of trend energy and price, the doubters return to keep the masses frozen in fear. The stock market will continue climbing the wall of worry as long as trend energy... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold and Silver Require Patience

Published on 2012-09-17 11:05:00

Roham, My advice is let the market talk, then react. Jim and I recommended staying the course (Stay Course!) on August 24th as an increasing number

Wait Until the Fish Are Biting

Published on 2012-09-17 07:00:00

Gunslinger

Oil Is Rallying, Don't Let The Headlines Convince Otherwise

Published on 2012-09-17 07:00:00

http://simpsons.wikia.com/wiki/Bart_vs._Australia The same 'guys' that couldn't see the oil rally coming are now telling us not to expect the boost to last. Experienced traders see this setup as the blind leading the blind. That's how the game works and why most traders seeking advice outside the message of the market often end up with a big boot wedged between their butt cheeks. Oil's rally... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Japan Hints at Possible Yen Intervention

Published on 2012-09-15 07:43:00

Again we’re reading about calls for intervention as the Yen pushes to seven year highs. Is this just another headline crying “wolf” in the endless game of time the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Yen interventions? Inevitably, sooner rather than later, confidence in Japan will fail, and the Yen’s secular up trend will reverse. This makes short Yen’s secular up trend a tempting but treacherous... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

QE3, Economic Trouble Ahead, Jim's Warning About Retirement Accounts

Published on 2012-09-14 15:19:00

Jim’s suggested retreat from "carrot on a stick" government retirement programs may seem prohibitively expensive and foolish to some right now, but it takes only one unexpected event and historical predictable reaction to it to smash the basket that carries all your investment eggs. Bernanke’s open-ended QE3 provide a real sense of the urgency behind the scenes. If the Fed wanted to stimulate... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

US Budget Deficit Hits $1.16 Trillion Through Aug

Published on 2012-09-14 07:00:00

Surplus or deficit as a % GDP (S/D%GDP) continues to deteriorate through August 2012.

Sugary drinks over 16-ounces banned in New York City, Board of Health votes

Published on 2012-09-14 07:00:00

…More "joy sticking" of society

Census: Middle class shrinks to an all-time low

Published on 2012-09-14 07:00:00

Let’s not politicize the description of what’s taking place here.

Fed Pulls Trigger, to Buy Mortgages in Effort to Lower Rates

Published on 2012-09-13 12:46:00

The headline might as well have read "Bernanke reluctant to return to Princeton

Hobby Lobby sues US government over healthcare mandate

Published on 2012-09-13 10:04:00

Is this forced decision-making under the guise of regulation?

Jobless benefits claims jump, wholesale prices rise

Published on 2012-09-13 09:52:00

Investors confused by the daily noise need to focus on the cycles.

Liquidity Can Do Only So Much

Published on 2012-09-13 07:00:00

A rising stock market has become increasing important to household wealth creation as long as the job market stagnates and real incomes continue to fall.

Sentinel ruling may hurt MF Global clients

Published on 2012-09-13 06:38:00

This is why human behavior buries pots filled with silver coins (Roman times) and places cash under the mattress (Great Depression) during times of great economic uncertainty. It’s better to have possession of a bird in hand than counting two in the bush. Former has possession while the later may have it. The money game is all about probabilities. The consistent winners know how to manage... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Ebb, Flo, Patience, Discpline, Then Fight

Published on 2012-09-12 10:27:00

Roham, Your trading instincts are improving. You know the invisible hand can’t resist "pushing" the paper markets around official policy meetings and other bigwig powwows. Experienced position traders always reduce their position into strength; Jim often recommended releasing 1/3 of the original position to manage risk and ego. Gunslingers which include yours truly at times tend to flip their... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mailbox Comments

Published on 2012-09-12 08:09:00

Hi Eric, Good comments on trusting government. Regarding 401Ks and IRA's it should now be obvious what's at the end of the road. The Government is so honest they have actually told us in the form of the recent confiscation of segregated accounts at MF Global etc. In those cases when a bank lends money to a financial institution it takes priority on the return of money when said... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Liquidity Follows Its Own Terms

Published on 2012-09-12 07:00:00

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to reform (or pause and reflect), Mark Twain's Notebook, 1904. The side of the boat that expects the Fed to act tomorrow is becoming crowded.

Jim's Observation

Published on 2012-09-11 11:39:00

Jim, Incomplete, simplistic, lousy…...education of financial history and human behavior places individuals in vulnerable position relative to “carrot and a stick” programs provided by central planners. Ignore tax sheltered retirement plans more a moment and ask why do individuals entrust central planners to handle their retirement through public pension and social security? Many of these funds... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and mor [..]

'Great Uncertainty' About All Sovereign Exists Today

Published on 2012-09-11 09:45:00

There's great uncertainty about all sovereign debt. Nations spend beyond their means and alter tax policies with little to no regard for its effect on international competitiveness. The economic instability that arises from this environment has sent companies overseas, cash holdings to record levels, and interest rates failing to historic lows. Small businesses, a huge engine for job creation in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Reality Lies Within The Eye of The Beholder

Published on 2012-09-11 07:00:00

Unfortunately for most, reality lies within the eye of the beholder. When that reality is skewed by the invisible hand through misdirection, the weak inevitable sell fear and buy greed during

Debt Collectors Cash In as Students Struggle to Repay Loans

Published on 2012-09-10 07:00:00

One man's bust is another man's boom.

It's All About the Debt (Stupid)

Published on 2012-09-10 07:00:00

Summary: Federal debt held by foreigners as a percentage of GDP (FDHBFINGDPR) rose from 9.9% to 15.8% to combat the economic slowdown of 2001-2003.

Chicago teachers strike for 1st time in 25 years

Published on 2012-09-10 06:58:00

Welcome to the real world where austerity measures intended to balance budgets generate consequences. Headline:

Equity Market Continues To Defy Opinion

Published on 2012-09-08 08:25:00

Many investors

Calls For Short the EU Trade Just Got A Lot Quieter

Published on 2012-09-08 07:00:00

The most crowded trade on the planet has turned bad, the short the EU trade. How about 1.305 to 1.32? The expat euro snobs are bleeding today. Jim Source:

China approves $157 bln infrastructure spending

Published on 2012-09-07 11:46:00

Jim, Monty, plus a few others saw it coming. If you have eyes to see, coordinated central bank monetary and fiscal stimulation action is taking place. The aggressive accumulation by commercial traders

Do you want fries with that?

Published on 2012-09-07 10:16:00

“Do you want fries with that?” could very well be the appropriate political slogan to use when discussing the labor market in the United States.

Another Weak Jobs Report

Published on 2012-09-07 08:31:00

A weak

Summer drought takes its toll on local fruits and vegetables

Published on 2012-09-07 07:00:00

Classic cause and effect.

Follow The Money, Not Opinion

Published on 2012-09-07 07:00:00

I have absolutely no doubt there's an issue with economy.

Gold and Silver Charts Impressive

Published on 2012-09-06 07:10:00

The A-wave advance could retest the old highs by November 2012.

Corporate defaults are on the rise

Published on 2012-09-06 07:00:00

Empires are defeated,

More than 50 million Americans short of food

Published on 2012-09-06 07:00:00

A growing number of Americans are beginning to understand what "very low food security" means.

Fears Rising, Spaniards Pull Out Their Cash and Get Out of Spain

Published on 2012-09-06 07:00:00

Like rats fleeing from a sinking ship, the flight of capital from a country, region, or economic zone, suggests that something is seriously wrong. The flight of capital from Russia weakened the banks in 1998. Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) imploded by the fall of 1998 when the contagion reached critical mass. A similar stripping of bank deposits in Spain is pushing the contagion to the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Eurozone demands six-day week for Greece

Published on 2012-09-05 14:37:00

The response from the Greek people

In Stadium Building Spree, U.S. Taxpayers Lose $4 Billion

Published on 2012-09-05 14:02:00

The setup, known by the business community as crony capitalism, is driven by what I call the fool factor.

Coordinated Central Bank Actions For One More Kick Of The Can

Published on 2012-09-05 07:00:00

Rapid accumulation after strong distribution of US Treasury

Signs of Stagflation Emerging

Published on 2012-09-05 07:00:00

Coordinated Global Liquidity Injection

Published on 2012-09-04 11:52:00

Last Thursday’s

Federal Reserve has already started QE3, says investor Jim Rogers

Published on 2012-09-04 10:24:00

As the boys from down might say, gold and silver are ready to "Shake A Leg" (see selected audio). When asset destruction (debt implosion) equals or exceeds asset appreciation (liquidity) during a global

The Invisible Hand and Houdini, The Master of Illusion

Published on 2012-09-04 07:00:00

(1918) "Ladies and gentlemen," Houdini cried as, to the audience's alarm, a full-grown Asian elephant, 8ft tall and weighing over 6,000lb, came running pacily into view. "Allow me to introduce Jennie, the world's only vanishing elephant." Jennie the elephant proudly raised her trunk in greeting to the wide-eyed masses, before being led into a huge, brightly coloured box on wheels. The doors... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

China's manufacturing slump deepens

Published on 2012-09-04 07:00:00

Chinese stocks continue to lag their US counterparts.

The real story behind those Ron Paul delegates from Maine (Video of march from floor)

Published on 2012-09-03 07:00:00

The public’s growing realization that the sovereign debt crisis cannot be solved by either political party after the 2012 election increases the probability that a formable third party will emerge for the 2016 election. Headline:

Gold Doesn't Care About Jackson Hole

Published on 2012-09-02 08:40:00

Investors interpreted Bernanke’s statement as stimulus remains in play. Just like Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” policy statement several weeks ago, it offered no specifics as to the form, size, and purpose. The rather vague economic and policy assessment, nevertheless, sent stocks, bonds, and gold higher. Anyone following money flows knew gold has been primed for a rally since Gold’s... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more [..]

Follow the Retail Stocks

Published on 2012-08-31 07:00:00

Why

Mailbox

Published on 2012-08-30 11:26:00

Money will seek refuge in many things during the Great debt crisis. Gold

U.S. states' debt tops $4 trillion-report

Published on 2012-08-30 08:03:00

How long before heavily indebted U.S. States try to implement their own version of the

French PM: 75% Tax Will Not Define Government

Published on 2012-08-30 07:29:00

The CEO of Societe Generale, Frederic Oudea told CNBC the 75 percent tax is highly symbolic and could stop people coming to and investing in France. Mr. Oudea is right.

King of Shorts Increasing Long Position in S&P 500

Published on 2012-08-29 14:02:00

The short-side pros always keeping their powder dry until cycles and technicals to agree will be waiting for statistical concentration (cycle readings above

Deposit flight from Spanish banks hits 15-year high as bailout rumours grow

Published on 2012-08-29 09:19:00

Can Spain avoid Greece's vicious circle?

U.S. Firms Move Abroad

Published on 2012-08-29 08:54:00

Path of least resistance motivated by excessive regulations and taxation drives capital, investment, and corporations overseas. Headline:

Accumulation of Gold By Strong Hands Goes Unnoticed

Published on 2012-08-28 10:13:00

Accumulation of gold by strong hands continues with little recognition from the media other than the occasional “gold is dead” headline.

Silver Also Talking

Published on 2012-08-28 08:29:00

Silver is also talking. Silver’s REV(E), a measure of trend energy, established a higher low in July despite a lower low in price. This non-confirmation of price or positive divergence illustrates accumulation. Momentum traders, following a similar setup in gold, await an upside breakout of May 2011 downtrend. Chart:

Americans Think the Rich Are Smarter, But Greedier

Published on 2012-08-28 07:23:00

Here comes the useless “polls” designed to shape Americans' perceptions. Dumb and smart populate both the rich and poor. Rich may be better educated, but there’s a big distinction between information (memorization of it), knowledge, and finally wisdom. As the old saying goes, money’s got nothin’ do with it. Citizens of the world grapple with fear and greed on a daily basis. Our responses to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and m [..]

Investors and economists agree: No QE3

Published on 2012-08-28 07:05:00

When investors and economists agree, it usually means something unexpected is about to happen. QE is coming; it’s only guarantee

Gold Is Talking

Published on 2012-08-27 15:37:00

Gold is talking What do you see? Nothing?

Businesses Rein In Big-Ticket Spending

Published on 2012-08-27 13:22:00

The optimists, beneficiaries of numerous "like this" clicks, make friends easily on the social networks while the pessimists do not. Yet in the end, only the realists with their ability to read the markets and ignore the headline BS survive long enough to profit in this business. There’s no hiding the reality that the purchase of big ticket items continues to deteriorate. July’s collapse... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Low-level workers fired because of new banking standards

Published on 2012-08-27 07:54:00

The cause and effect of excessive regulation and taxation, either right or wrong, influences global capital flows.

Beef Herd Tumbles to 40-Year Low After Feed Costs Surge

Published on 2012-08-24 07:11:00

Decimated grasslands and not enough corn to supply feed lots has driven herd size to 40 year lows (supply) as global demand continues to rise.

Stay The Course!

Published on 2012-08-24 07:00:00

I agree with Jim, stay the course.

Middle class share of America's income shrinking

Published on 2012-08-23 11:16:00

Service-producing jobs

Goldman Sachs: Dump Stocks Before Fiscal Cliff Hits

Published on 2012-08-23 08:00:00

It's hard to promote

11-mile stretch of Mississippi River closed

Published on 2012-08-22 07:48:00

We're already seeing a significant economic impact from the drought of 2012.

New rules expose bigger funding gaps for public pensions

Published on 2012-08-22 07:28:00

Whiles states such as Illinois punt on pension reform

Red Flag In Muni Bonds

Published on 2012-08-22 07:00:00

Not everything Buffett decision raises a red flag. Berkshire Hathaway (BK) accumulated a whooping 130 million ounces of silver between 1997 and 2006 from $4.50 to $6 per ounce. This was nearly 37% of the world’s supply at the time. BK complete liquidation of its silver position was considered a red flag in 2006; Silver has risen nearly five times in value since 2006. A growing number of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

QE Is Coming, But Not Yet

Published on 2012-08-21 08:30:00

The stock market rallies, even when distrusted, do not setup bailouts, liquidity injections or what is generally terms quantitative easing (QE) today. History tells us that QEs come after the panic amid painful stock market declines. While another major QE is coming, it will be prefaced by a downside break in the US Federal budget counter trend rally illustrated in the chart below. Cycles... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Soaring Federal Welfare Recipients Despite Growing Labor Shortage Across America

Published on 2012-08-21 07:00:00

Over 100 million now receiving federal welfare, yet California's $38 billion agricultural sector is facing a scarcity of labor that's leaving crops in the field. When asked if any local residents have come out to apply to work in the fields, Craig Underwood replied, "None. Absolutely none." He is even having trouble finding truck drivers and other semi-skilled labor for jobs that pay $12-$18... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Money Continues To Favor Safe Havens

Published on 2012-08-20 07:46:00

A forceful and unlimited response

Investors Need Not Wait - Technical Signs Already Exist

Published on 2012-08-20 07:00:00

Investors are waiting for what exactly? Signals of accumulation illustrated below have been ongoing for months. Chart 1: NYSE Composite & AD(E)* Chart 2:

White House studying what exactly?

Published on 2012-08-20 07:00:00

Might has well have been titled "White House studying potential oil reserve release on voter behavior."

eBay bans magic potions, spells and curses

Published on 2012-08-19 10:12:00

Advanced Dungeon and Dragon players and politicians be warned

Massive Yet Discrete Accumulation in Gold

Published on 2012-08-18 14:46:00

A surge in the GLD total assets WA stochastic reveals massive yet discrete

Chinese Stocks Not Confirming US Stock Market Rally

Published on 2012-08-17 19:00:00

Charles Dow was one of the first market technicians to recognize the importance of intermarket analysis to confirm or deny the direction of money flow. For instance, Dow recognized that breakout (or breakdowns) of the Industrials confirmed by a similar move in the Transports had the tendency to be more sustainable. Unconfirmed moves or the failure of the two markets to trade in gear suggested the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mailbox - Resurgence of Gold Driven By Financial Self-Preservation

Published on 2012-08-17 11:04:00

I doubt gold will be used in settlement of public trade, but it’s certainly a possibly for international trade. Gold's resurgence is motivated by financial self-preservation. While centralized governments have tightened their grip on the private economy through the implementation draconian regulations and capital controls to ‘regain’ control, they have been unsuccessful in stopping the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Cost of College Degree Significantly Outpace Earnings And Soon Domestic Earning Potential

Published on 2012-08-17 10:21:00

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CE), Average hourly earnings have increased from $5.66/hr to $19.77/hr from 1978 to 2012.

Paulson Steps Up Gold Bet to 44% of Firm’s Equity Assets

Published on 2012-08-17 07:00:00

Paulson who made billions shorting sub prime credit markets in 2007 continues to add to his massive gold position in 2012. Headline:

General Motors Is Headed For Bankruptcy -- Again

Published on 2012-08-16 14:51:00

How many taxpayers funded businesses must fail before the public realizes something is wrong?

Americans Are Strapped For Cash But Denial Is Easier

Published on 2012-08-16 10:31:00

"The paycheck cycle remains pronounced, and there continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the global economy,'' Chief Financial Officer Charles Holley said in a recorded message on Thursday. When Wal Mal characterizes the paycheck cycle remains “pronounced”, they’re saying that the bulk of their customers do their shopping around the paycheck cycle at the beginning of the month. This uneven... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more [..]

Mailbox - Correlation of Gold and Bonds

Published on 2012-08-16 09:39:00

Corporate (LTCBTRI) and government (LTGBTRI)

California’s Revenue Falls 10.1% Below Forecast, Chiang Says

Published on 2012-08-16 07:00:00

Trends from social to economic often begin in California and move across the country.

Treasury yields rise to highest since May

Published on 2012-08-15 11:26:00

The well-timed but poorly camouflaged risk-aversion to risk-taking transfer (unwind) orchestrated in late May of 2012 is beginning to accelerate. The experts; nevertheless, remain mystified by the low-volume election-year stock rally. Completion of the trade (full unwind) occurs when mystified experts proclaim bonds as "dead money" and retail money rushes to distribute bonds in a panic (chart 1).... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Rising Confidence Unconfirmed By Reality

Published on 2012-08-15 11:02:00

Homebuilder confidence, a soft indicator,

As Goes Gold So Goes The Gold Stocks

Published on 2012-08-15 07:00:00

Correlation analysis of gold and other assets reveals that gold, stocks, and gold shares are highly correlated.

Chinese companies pull out of U.S. stock markets

Published on 2012-08-14 14:02:00

The Chinese bypassing the nefarious and unpredictable activities of Wall Street buy US Treasuries directly from the US Treasury.

Troubles Abroad Keep Cash Flowing to U.S.

Published on 2012-08-14 07:51:00

While trouble abroad

Hard Times Generation: Families living in cars

Published on 2012-08-14 07:00:00

As we slug our way through another trading box that extends until 2021-2015

Buy When Dumb Money Sells Silver and Vice Versa

Published on 2012-08-13 10:48:00

While speculators may 'hate' silver, they're not the best indication of dumb money.

How 'Everyday Low Prices' Are Costing Americans Their Jobs

Published on 2012-08-13 07:00:00

Self-reinforcing job destruction cycle - Americans saddled with rising debts, higher taxes, falling wages, and underemployment increasingly shop at 'Everyday Low Prices'

The Importance of Retail Stocks

Published on 2012-08-13 07:00:00

Personal consumption accounts for more than 70% of national income (GDP) in the US. This makes retail sales a decent proxy for domestic personal consumption an important economic trend in the United States. Inflections in the broader stock market tend to be signaled by positive and negative divergences with retail stocks. For example, when retail stocks fail to confirm the 2007 stock market... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Accumulation of British Pound Says Fade Headline Opinion

Published on 2012-08-11 08:43:00

Opinion says the British pound is heading for fresh lows in the coming weeks. The message of the market which is the only thing I read says, Go ahead and short the pound if you want, but I’m accumulating this quiet market. Fading the headlines while the invisible hand accumulates quietly present the best bullish setups. They often precede significant rallies and offer a chance for decent... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Blue Horseshoe loves Gold - An Important Buy Signal

Published on 2012-08-10 18:47:00

Dear Gold Community, Two dates (chart): 11/24/08, WA=54%, Gold = $778/oz 08/10/12, WA=54%, Gold = $1618.5/oz An important buy signal

Opinions, Not Equity Markets, Need Reality Check

Published on 2012-08-10 11:01:00

I suggest that opinions, not equity markets, need a reality check. Markets are reality. Opinions only impede profits. I know that many believe markets are no longer free, but the setup of leveraged money flows and long-term secular trends debunk 24/7 manipulation. The invisible hand while very good at nudging short term trends cannot reserve secular capital flows. For example, the secular up... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Drought, food prices fan fears of new crisis

Published on 2012-08-10 08:41:00

The global food crisis driven by demand rising faster than supply has been an ongoing problem for decades.

California's Budget Woes Spark 'Fiscal Emergency'

Published on 2012-08-10 07:00:00

Money is always hoarded during times of uncertainty and crisis. This reduced commerce and tax collection for local, state, and federal governments. Private money, scrip, tokens, fiat, precious metals inevitably fill the void to facilitate daily life. For example, the Great Depression saw issuance of local scrip and Civil War tokens when money disappeared from circulation. Municipalities from... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

U.S. Trade Gap Contraction Does Not Suggest An Economic Recovery

Published on 2012-08-10 07:00:00

A narrowing trade gap, often applauded by the media as a sign

What does it mean if almost half of Americans die with less than $10,000 in assets?

Published on 2012-08-09 16:40:00

Living beyond one’s means is easy in a world that revolves around debt.

It's A Waiting Game For Gold

Published on 2012-08-09 08:07:00

Total assets WA stochastic has generated a daily close above 50% three times since June 2012. A sustained close above 50% generates a buy signal for gold. Chart:

U.S. Dollar Strength Implies Trouble Ahead For Europe

Published on 2012-08-09 07:00:00

The presistent rally in the U.S. dollar and

Buy More Bonds Does't Solve Anything

Published on 2012-08-09 07:00:00

A buying program would be more likely to stimulate if the Fed actually bought corporate rather than government bonds.

Home Price Recovery Will Take Longer Than Spring of 2013

Published on 2012-08-08 10:54:00

It will take a little longer than spring of 2013 for home prices to recover. Chart:

History Repeats But Today's Cheers Will Eventually Turn into Tomorrow’s Tears

Published on 2012-08-08 08:17:00

We've seen this

Austerity At The Expense of Society

Published on 2012-08-08 07:00:00

The world has become one big hedge fund that trades other peoples’ money with great leverage, yet we squabble over old political phrases instead.

Flight of Capital From Europe Reflects Brewing Crisis

Published on 2012-08-07 07:48:00

Capital fleeing Europe has reached staggering sums. Flight from Spain alone has exceeded one fourth of their approximately $1.4 trillion GDP. Capital has been fleeing a collapsing economy created by a combination of excessive debts and austerity. This combination has created a deflationary depression in Spain. Individuals and corporations either not subject to or able to circumvent the new... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Thousands of Fish Die as Midwest Streams Heat Up

Published on 2012-08-07 07:00:00

Charles Darwin was one of the first naturalists to observe that organism will adapt to subtle changes in environment slowly over time. His observations provided the groundwork for the theory of natural selection and modern genetics. If Charles Darwin was alive today, he's probably suggests that quick and abrupt environmental changes has the potential to produce mass extinctions because... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Knight Capital Implosion: The Latest Wall Street Alarm Bell That Everyone Will Ignore

Published on 2012-08-06 13:35:00

"Ok folks, shows over, nothing to see here, OH MY GOD!" Everyone looks but no one really wants to see.

Copper Suggests Recession Not Imminent

Published on 2012-08-06 11:04:00

While the global

Four-Year Silver Probe Set to be Dropped

Published on 2012-08-06 08:39:00

Who are they kidding? Chief Wiggum's rendition of “shows over - nothing to see” best describes the silver game, "Ok folks, shows over, nothing to see here, OH MY GOD!"

Follow The Long-Term Trends & Cycles

Published on 2012-08-06 07:00:00

Long term stock market trends are not easily reversed by short-term noise.

Trading A Trend As Nothing To Do With Trust

Published on 2012-08-04 10:54:00

Yesterday's rally backed by the tendency that upside momentum encourages

July Jobs Report Is Clear as Mud

Published on 2012-08-03 12:58:00

Private sector employment as a percentage of nonfarm payrolls

US economy adds 163K jobs, rate rises to 8.3 pct.

Published on 2012-08-03 09:41:00

A positive but decelerating job creation histogram (JCH) suggests tepid annual job growth within a backdrop of civilian labor force contraction.

'Real' Unemployment Rate Shows Far More Jobless

Published on 2012-08-03 06:55:00

Does the

It's All About The Layers

Published on 2012-08-02 16:59:00

While the investing world focuses intently on the BLS's best and generally

Let the Staring Contest Begin

Published on 2012-08-02 10:43:00

Global capital flows defined by the risk on/off oscillator turned negative in May 2012 (chart 1).

Opinions Vary But the Message of the Market Is Absolute

Published on 2012-08-02 07:00:00

Opinions not supported by the message of the market tend to be misleading.

Colleges freeze, reduce tuition as public balks at further price hikes

Published on 2012-08-02 07:00:00

These guys were alarmed to discover that enrollment started to slip when tuition was increased two to three times the rate of inflation in perpetuity? Jobs required to ask “do you want fries with your order” only introduce the

Sen. Rubio tries to lift tax on Olympic medals

Published on 2012-08-01 15:56:00

"Our tax code is a complicated and burdensome mess that too often punishes success, and the tax imposed on Olympic medal winners is a classic example of this madness" Sen Rubio Taxman Headline: Sen. Rubio tries to lift tax on Olympic medals The Florida Republican introduced a bill today to exempt U.S. Olympic medal winners from paying taxes on their medals. In addition to gold, silver... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Veteran Silver Traders Know Takedowns

Published on 2012-08-01 13:10:00

Veteran silver traders need no description of NY takedowns.

A Massive Liquidity Injection Is Coming

Published on 2012-08-01 09:58:00

The Fed constrained by the strings of control will likely stare down the market forces a little longer than they should. Inaction, however, does not imply a lack of understanding of the economic trends in place. The Fed fully understands that consumption, the main driver of GDP growth in the US and supported by an increasing number of real world observations, is slowing. Whether the Fed acts,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Undpeformance In The Banking Sector Suggests Caution

Published on 2012-08-01 07:00:00

Negative divergences in the nominal relative to gold-adjusted price of the banking stocks illustrate dangerous stock market

Here's What the Fed May Do Instead of More QE

Published on 2012-07-31 16:13:00

Who cares if it’s called QE3 or an indirect, fancy-pants liquidity injection?

What Happened To Gold?

Published on 2012-07-31 10:49:00

What happened to gold? Europe happened. The invisible hand, desperately short, has used the dollar strength to reduce those positions (chart 1). This transfer from strong to weak hands will continue as long as psychology and TIME permit. Please note that time is running out for 2012. Chart 1:

Gold Share Trend From The Perspective of Fear and Discipline

Published on 2012-07-31 07:00:00

Gold Share Trend From The Perspective of Fear and Discipline: Fear

GM Ramps Up Risky Subprime Auto Loans To Drive Sales

Published on 2012-07-31 07:00:00

Risky subprime loans got the automakers in trouble in 2007. GM should have died in 2009, but the taxpayer saved the day.

Election Year Stock Market Rally?

Published on 2012-07-30 10:17:00

If managing markets were possible and I wanted to generate a stock market rally ahead of an important election, I would concentrate short positions in the bond market (DI reading below -60%) to trigger a reallocation trade from bonds to stock market. Of course,

Sign of Strength (SOS) in Equities

Published on 2012-07-30 08:27:00

7/19 swing high broken on a significant spike in volume. When resistance is broken on increasing volume, it represents a sign of strength (S0S) and suggests higher prices. Chart: S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Europe Warned It Faces Taxation Without Representation

Published on 2012-07-30 07:38:00

Give me a break!

Exclusive: Several banks seek leniency in EU Euribor probe - sources

Published on 2012-07-30 07:30:00

Market "rigging" under the pretense of

Wall Street Week Ahead: Rolling out red carpet for central bankers

Published on 2012-07-30 07:00:00

The "whatever it takes"

Ebb Turns To Flow In Gold, Silver & Gold Stocks Soon

Published on 2012-07-30 07:00:00

The invisible hand will liquidate their short positions as long as market forces will allow them to do so. This places market forces, not the discretion of paper pushers, in the driver’s seat. The global debt crisis which worsens by the day requires liquidity. Have no doubt, if liquidity is needed to preserve the status quo, either real or illusion, it will be provided. Liquidity will feed... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Drought taking heavy toll on fishing industry

Published on 2012-07-28 08:07:00

Both direct

Pressure and Energy Building As Investors Give Up On Gold

Published on 2012-07-27 18:36:00

Net long as a percentage of open interest has risen to -19.06% (chart 1).

US economic growth slowed to 1.5 pct. rate in Q2

Published on 2012-07-27 10:16:00

Same old song and dance of consumption at the expense of savings. Chart 1:

Durable goods orders ex-transportation fall in June

Published on 2012-07-27 07:00:00

The overwhelming need to maintain the illusion

Low Interest Rates Are Not Enough: El-Erian

Published on 2012-07-27 07:00:00

What El-Erian calls the great global interest rate convergence (GGIRC), the convergence of interest rates steadily zero across developed and emerging economies, occurs when the demand for money erodes over time as the economy slowly contracts.

Mailbox

Published on 2012-07-26 13:02:00

Many of the world’s global citizens have already been forced into 'survival mode' by chronic unemployment, underemployment, and/or a general standard of living squeeze

New U.S. home sales decline 8.4% in June

Published on 2012-07-26 07:00:00

Trends or velocity and acceleration are more important than a single data point. While housing is bouncing upward from extremely oversold levels (chart), prudent traders continue to consider it as

Draghi sends strong signal that ECB will act

Published on 2012-07-26 07:00:00

First Bernanke hinted that the US stood ready to defend the US and by extension the global economy. Now, Draghi is sending a strong signal they'll also do whatever it takes to protect the euro zone and global economy. Have you noticed the seas are beginning to withdrawal from the shoreline as the the tidal wave of money designed to save all approaches silently.

Fed Sees Action if Growth Doesn't Pick Up Soon

Published on 2012-07-26 07:00:00

Absolutely Jim.

Defensive Capital Flows Forces The Fed To Be Ready To Act

Published on 2012-07-26 07:00:00

The Fed signals they're ready to act because they understand the flight to safety or defensive message ebbed into global capital flows. They also understand that the trends used to define these flows continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate. For example, news lows in the German (bund) and Japanese bonds (JGB) to US Treasuries ratio illustrate this flight of capital towards the safety of the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

One-Third Of Colleges, Universities In ‘Real Financial Trouble’

Published on 2012-07-25 08:03:00

Institutions of higher learning are no different than individuals, corporation, and/or nations living beyond their means. Eventually, the overspending accumulates excessive debt that cannot be serviced by endowment fund cash flows. This places upward pressure on tuition costs to close the gap. Inevitably, it's only a matter of time before all ‘spending junkies’ crash and burn. This translates... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

Rising Debt and Default Rates Across the Globe

Published on 2012-07-25 07:00:00

Record low interest rates has nothing to do with the growing number of defaults in the domestic nonfinancial sector. Domestic nonfinancial debt (DNF - magenta line) which includes federal and nonfederal, unlike total credit market debt, has begun to tick higher again in 2012. The world is addicted to debt because no one intends to pay it off. This is becoming obvious for even nonfederal... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mississippi River so low, cargo barges run aground

Published on 2012-07-25 07:00:00

Lower river levels means more-complicated navigation, slower deliveries, lighter loads and increased delays. All of this reduces the tonnage of materials moved through the Mississippi which assuming constant demand places upward pressure on critical materials such as coal, grains, steel, iron, sand, etc. Headline: Mississippi River so low, cargo barges run aground MEMPHIS, Tenn. — A year... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Fed Sees Action if Growth Doesn't Pick Up Soon

Published on 2012-07-25 07:00:00

Haven’t we seen this “stand ready to act” headline for months/years? Although additional bond purchases or elimination of interest paid on reserves will likely send nominal assets prices higher, it’s unlikely that heavily-indebted, underemployed and unemployed Americans will spend more (on high-tech gadgets) as a result of the wealth effect. A fresh round of rebate checks would increase private... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and mor [..]

The Bias Towards Optimism Often Hides The Truth

Published on 2012-07-24 11:08:00

Long-term negative divergences in markets (capital flows) suggest dangerous markets.

Italy bans stock short-selling as market plunges

Published on 2012-07-24 07:00:00

Short-selling ban buys time for Italy, but the wolf pack (capital flows) will not be dissuaded by temporary restrictions. The weak are getting weaker by the minute. The means a global coordinated liquidity injection, the only tool available to kick the can down the road a little further, is inevitable. Headline: Italy bans stock short-selling as market plunges MILAN (AP) -- Italy's... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Spanish bailout fears to spark stock sell-off

Published on 2012-07-23 11:36:00

Risk-off money flows dominated

CNOOC to buy Canada's Nexen for $15.1 billion

Published on 2012-07-23 07:44:00

China accumulates assets while the West accumulates debt and raises taxes.

The Boat of Irresponsiblity Has Many Passengers

Published on 2012-07-22 07:35:00

Governments preach austerity, discipline, and imply irresponsibility as the cause of the growing debt problem. The headings suggest that regulation designed to save the public from themselves, a combination of more and better, is the answer to prevent the next crisis. Amid the flurry of election-year finger pointing, few seem to recognize that governments, the ultimate regulators, stand shoulder... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mother Nature Doesn't Care

Published on 2012-07-22 07:00:00

The dust bowl or dirty thirties ran from 1930 to 1940 (chart 1). Chart 1: Spot Commodity Prices: CRB Spot Index (1947 - Present); 16-Raw Industrial Spot Price (1935-1947); Great Britain Wholesale Price of All Commodities (1885-1935) and Trend Z Scores If a comparison

Mailbox

Published on 2012-07-21 21:12:00

Denny, Managing confidence is almost as difficult as timing the markets according to public statements. Regards, Eric Hi Eric, When I read your comment this morning about the Fed not acting until the next crisis what went through my head was: "if they wait, they will have no affect and will lose total control of any outcomes" I think Sinclair has the correct idea...it is coming... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Oil and Canadian Dollar Money Flows Hint Coordinated Liquidity Injection Near

Published on 2012-07-21 08:48:00

The invisible hand is concentrating its long positions in oil and the Canadian dollar, a commodity-based currency with substantial oil reserves, as the global economy weakens and debt crisis worsens. Diffusion index readings above 60% represent significant inflows or accumulation (chart 1 and 2) Accumulation of oil and Canadian dollar as the global economy slows at the margin is... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

What The Weekend May Hold

Published on 2012-07-20 12:27:00

So much for simply watching the British Open.

Extreme Affecting Crop and Livestock Yields

Published on 2012-07-20 07:00:00

Extreme, persistent heat goes beyond inconvenience for many. It reduces both crop and livestock yields and influences an economy already weakened by failing debt and falling aggregate demand. The pressure for the Fed to act through additional liquidity will only grow as the hot and dry summer cycle lingers. Headline: Extreme heat cuts milk production in Wisconsin July 17, 2012 (COTTAGE... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Capital Flows Remain Defensive

Published on 2012-07-20 07:00:00

Intermarket

Ignore the Libor scandal at your own risk

Published on 2012-07-20 07:00:00

Greed and fear have dominated capitalism, human nature, for thousands of years. In other words, there’s nothing new here. Crises develop when greed pushes too far and confidence fails. Headline: Ignore the Libor scandal at your own risk SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Maybe you’ve seen the headlines mentioning “Libor” or Bob Diamond or the fixing of interest rates. Perhaps you vaguely know... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and m [..]

The Leading Formula, Followed By Formula Weakens Ahead Next Crisis

Published on 2012-07-20 07:00:00

Taxes withheld, a leading indicator to total revenue, has broken its up trend (chart 1) The US

An Open Challenge To All PM CEOs

Published on 2012-07-19 14:50:00

The invisible hand's net long position is the fulcrum of control Jim describes below. While the hedgies lean on vulnerable miners with impunity, it only works as long as the invisible hand protects their flank by managing gold's advance. The invisible hand, however, has it own agenda. That agenda includes not being the primary bag holder and profiting from significantly higher gold prices. ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

U.S. Public-Pension Shortfall $4.6 Trillion, Group Says

Published on 2012-07-19 11:15:00

The public is

North Las Vegas city leaders declare state of fiscal emergency

Published on 2012-07-19 07:00:00

Reality check is here and now for many municipalities across America. The division between public and private interests will only widen in the coming years. Market forces, the final arbiter over opinion and personal bias, will

More Earthquakes In The Silver Market

Published on 2012-07-19 07:00:00

I know neither Rule or Sprott, and realize they have a vested interest in talking their book, but their assertion that substantial upside for silver exists once a technical trigger is generated is supported not only by their observations in the physical but also by statistical concentrations in the paper market. The invisible hand is furiously covering its shorts into (D-wave) weakness while... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Yet Another Sign of Accumulation In Equities

Published on 2012-07-18 07:41:00

Intel results tell you nothing about the broad market trend. While the body of evidence still favors the risk-off trade over the short-term, it does not negate a growing

Middle Class 'Hit by a Truck'

Published on 2012-07-18 07:00:00

You don't need a political pundit to tell you that the middle class has been repeatedly hit by a truck since the early 70’s. The message of the market supports this ongoing hit and run accident. The flow of money between Tiffany’s and Wal Mart illustrates a growing number of Americans from upper to lower classes gradually reducing their standard of livings. The ebb and flo has become more... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Don't Expect Fed Hints/Action Until Money Has Been Positioned

Published on 2012-07-17 11:13:00

Did anyone other than the feel-good media think Bernanke would hint about easing today? Maybe it’s just me. I expect a lot of hedging statements, prefaced by plenty of maybes, possibly, and the phrase “when conditions warrant it.” His testimony, what little I have heard it, focused on glimmers of hope. He cited improving housing trends to justify inaction. Bernanke, contrary to popular... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Commercial Banks Increasing Cash Assets Represents Another Warning Signal

Published on 2012-07-17 07:00:00

Commercial banks

Grocery prices headed higher as drought lingers

Published on 2012-07-17 07:00:00

There's been three steps of varying (mostly increasing) volatility in commodity trend since 2001 (chart 1). Those buying the dips have been rewarded while those chasing strength have not (chart 2). Chart 1: Spot Commodity Prices: CRB Spot Index (1947 - Present); 16-Raw Industrial Spot Price (1935-1947); Great Britain Wholesale Price of All Commodities (1885-1935) and Trend Z Scores Chart... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Retail sales fall for third straight month in June

Published on 2012-07-16 12:00:00

Retail sales are slipping again (chart) 70% of national income (GDP) is consumption based. How long do you expect the Fed to stare down market forces with the above trends in place? Chart: Real or CPI-Adjusted Retail Sales (RRS) and YOY Change Headline: Retail sales fall for third straight month in June WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell for a third straight month in June... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

This Major Fed Move Is About To Create An Explosion In Gold

Published on 2012-07-16 07:07:00

Liquidity is the only tool left in the policy bag that can combat the forces of deflation. How long can the Fed stare down market forces before the vicious, self-reinforcing cycle of deflation takes hold and cannot be reversed? If Pento is right in that “I believe the cyclical period of deflation that I warned about several months ago is now close to an end.” the invisible hand's net long... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

US government records $904.2B deficit through June

Published on 2012-07-13 07:00:00

Pick and number, any number, because a deficit balanced on a knife's edge of liquidity and confidence could prove to be highly unpredictable. Billions have become trillions without as the game of sweep the problem under the rug continues without much public concern (or awareness). The rising secular trend in gold says, if the economy slows at the margin, even a little, the CBO 2012 full year... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Equity Market Building Cause

Published on 2012-07-12 13:00:00

The equity market trapped between the 6/29 upside gap (212 million shares) and 7/6 downside gap (151 million shares)

Mailbox

Published on 2012-07-11 16:00:00

The invisible hand anticipated the hot and dry weather better than local weather man (chart 1). Chart 1: Corn (CORN) And Corn Diffusion Index (DI) Now it's accumulating oil while

Was Gold Manipulated Like Libor Rates?

Published on 2012-07-10 06:39:00

Is this a serious question? People believe what they want, so I follow the money and let the masses argue endlessly about something other than trading consistency and profitability. I will say this, as price goes up, shorting by certain interest always goes up. When price goes down, shorting goes down. This money flow pattern has been displayed consistently since 2000 (chart). Coincidence? Think... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Austerity From Glass Houses Doesn't Work

Published on 2012-07-07 09:02:00

It is a myth that governments are ready to face the economic, social and political fallout standing austere as their economies implode, which they will. Jim Sinclair Source: jsmineset.com Jim's absolutely correct.

Latest Attempt To Break Gold Will Fail Says Markets

Published on 2012-07-07 07:05:00

Jim's expectation that the "cartel" will attempt another takedown of gold next week is justified. They and their highly concentrated short position realize that the probability of an accelerating up trend grows with each passing session. The means that the urgency to reduce their controlling positions (21.26% net long as percentage of open interest) ahead of the acceleration is extremely high... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Expectations Smashed Again

Published on 2012-07-06 08:22:00

Expectations for job growth were high, but reality smashed them again.

Borrowed Time Regardless of Rate Cuts

Published on 2012-07-06 07:00:00

Europe, England, and China cut rates in response to slowing global growth. Although cutting short-term rates in response to market driven rates doesn't do a damn thing to encourage lending and/or investment, it's the appropriate play in the game of appearances designed to bolster confidence and buy more time. Eventually, the act of maintaining appearances must be supported by difficult,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Oil Prices May Have Hit Bottom: Expert Sees Energy Prices Rising

Published on 2012-07-05 07:00:00

The probability of a trend change

Dynamic Thinkes Are Few and Far Between

Published on 2012-07-04 11:14:00

I'm a huge proponent of following the message of the market, but it usually takes a dynamic thinker to

IMF warns on U.S. economy

Published on 2012-07-03 12:42:00

The boost now and worry about cutting deficits later strategy, also known as kicking the can down the road, has been a constant message since 2001. Periodically, voters get upset with the status quo, but significant political and economic change rarely emanates from the voting booth. Headline: IMF warns on U.S. economy NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Boost the U.S. economy now and worry about... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Housing Rebound or Relapse?

Published on 2012-07-03 08:45:00

Negative equity, restricted access to credit, and falling demand

Food inflation fears as US crop prices surge

Published on 2012-07-03 07:17:00

A combination of monetary inflation and unusually hot and dry weather is beginning to reverse the downward momentum in the CRB foodstuffs and spot indices (chart 1 and 2).

Manufacturing activity shrinks in June, ISM says

Published on 2012-07-02 10:39:00

The prices paid (PP) to National Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) ratio violated its power up trend in July 2011 (chart). It's been generally downhill since then. Investors and traders a just beginning to realize something Insight readers have known for some time that the economy has been decelerating for months. Can you hear Jim saying, "QE to infinity baby" behind his trading desk... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bank of England dragged into rate-rigging row

Published on 2012-07-02 07:58:00

The global financial system which contains USA, UK, European Incorporated etc. is based on a game of confidence. The rigging of any market doesn't help bolster confidence. Watch demand for private money (gold) grow as another scandal unfolds and widen within public view. Headline: Bank of England dragged into rate-rigging row Bob Diamond had a conversation with Paul Tucker about how... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Why Traders Are 'Glued' to Their Desks

Published on 2012-07-02 07:00:00

Traders, including myself at times, are glued to their desks because media hype makes it difficult to remember the secular cycles and intermarket trends. Many of those trends have turned defensive in 2012.

Retailers see Fourth of July spending fizzle

Published on 2012-07-02 07:00:00

GSR Warns of Economic, Monetary, and Political Upheaval Ahead

Published on 2012-07-01 18:00:00

The gold to silver ratio (GSR), a long standing intermarket measure of liquidity (risk-on versus risk off), has broken out to the upside again. This breakout increases the probability of a liquidity-driven crisis going forward. These breakouts of 1971, 2001 and 2008 and preceded significant economic, monetary, and political upheaval. Coordinated liquidity injections (stimulus and bailouts)... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

A Fool And His Money Are Easily Parted

Published on 2012-06-30 10:44:00

Jim is absolutely right. The public's sole expectation of "save me" over all other considerations makes infinite liquidity the only other guarantee other than death, taxes and maybe continued erosion of privacy by technology for millions of Americans, Europeans, Japanese, Asians, etc. Unfortunately, the constant ebb and flow of capital and headline misdirection means a substantial number of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Hooray! Euro is saved ... for the 483rd time!

Published on 2012-06-30 06:42:00

Kicking the can down the down with perpetual bailouts is the only easy solution. That is, until voters get pissed and change leadership. The Euro has been bailed out so many times that investors are being conditioned to expect them at regular intervals. What happens if they can't? That my friends is a dangerous setup. Headline: Hooray! Euro is saved ... for the 483rd time! Good news... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Coincidences Become More Obvious When Money Is Followed

Published on 2012-06-29 18:49:00

The invisible hand has been leaning on the bond market since mid May 2012.

Consumer Expectations Trend Break Bullish For Gold

Published on 2012-06-29 13:51:00

Did you miss it? Consumer expectations (CE) broke it power up trend of 2011. This break increases the probability of lower consumer expectation numbers in the future. Big deal, right? Not so fast. The correlation between CE and gold has a strong inverse relationship. During periods of economic strife, the inverse correlation approaches -0.70. In layman's terms, the higher consumer... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Japan's Debt Addiction Creating 'Mother of All Bubbles'

Published on 2012-06-29 07:00:00

“The most powerful force in the universe is compound interest”, Albert Einstein Money will flee from the Yen and JGB in the coming years. It's only a matter of when. Headline: Japan's Debt Addiction Creating 'Mother of All Bubbles' With the debt crisis in Europe showing no sign of letting up, Japan is increasingly being seen as a safe haven, with foreign demand for the country's bonds... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Rising Spanish and Italian Yield Sugggest Urgency While Eurocrats Talk

Published on 2012-06-29 07:00:00

Rising interest rates in Spain and Italy reveal the urgency for decisive action. The Eurocrats motivated huge social and political differences within a common monetary union can do little more than talk and kick the can down the road. Decisive action without public support translates into a swift change of leadership. The following down trends illustrate the flight of capital from... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

U.S. orders for durable goods climb in May

Published on 2012-06-28 07:00:00

US orders for durable good may be climbing in May, but its inflation-adjust trend suggests a top has been formed.

Beware The Fat Tail Event In Europe

Published on 2012-06-28 07:00:00

Human emotion infects logical decision making from the lowly trader to the well-connected policy maker. Well all try to act in a timely and logical manner but emotions tend to screw it up.

Underperformance and Negative Divergences Sold As Housing Recovery

Published on 2012-06-28 07:00:00

The headlines are selling a housing recovery to anyone that wants to listen and believe. A message of underperformance and negative divergence of housing stocks relative to stocks contradicts the recovery spin. A similar, multi-month setup in 2005-2007 preceded the crisis of 2008. Chart: Housing Stocks to S&P 500 ratio and S&P 500: Headline: Strong Housing Numbers, Still... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Stockton, Calif., to become largest city to declare bankruptcy

Published on 2012-06-27 11:05:00

The city of Detroit defaulted on their bonds in 1932. While Detroit may not have sought the protection of bankruptcy, it took them until 1963 pay off these bonds in nominal or vastly depreciated dollars. Municipalities are defaulting. This means currencies will depreciate and history will repeat. Headline: Stockton, Calif., to become largest city to declare bankruptcy (CBS/AP) STOCKTON,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Underperformance of Chinese Stock Urges Caution

Published on 2012-06-27 08:00:00

China with its growing middle class, strong manufacturing base, and capital inflows has become the engine of global economic growth.

Increasing Doubts, More Liquidity, And Panic Coming

Published on 2012-06-27 07:00:00

Liquidity will be provided through convoluted means if necessary to postpone the inevitable.

"Mr. Euro" named Greek finance minister

Published on 2012-06-26 12:08:00

Could there have been any other choice than Mr Euro? Headline: "Mr. Euro" named Greek finance minister ATHENS (Reuters) - Yannis Stournaras, an affable and well-respected liberal economist, was appointed Greece's new finance minister on Tuesday after the sudden resignation of the first choice for the job at a crucial moment for the debt-laden country. The new conservative-led government... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

28% of Americans have no emergency savings

Published on 2012-06-26 11:15:00

If 99% of Americans have no idea that the probability of global crisis requiring emergency savings over the next few year is increasing with each passing day, does it matter that 28% of them have no emergency savings? Market conditions will force them to save whether they like it or not (chart 1). Chart: Savings (SAV) As A %GDP Average from 1947 Headline: 28% of Americans have no... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Public pension finances could soon look shakier

Published on 2012-06-26 10:41:00

The proper verb selection is will. The size of the financial obligations for state and federal employees will "shock and awe" when the economy and tax revenues begin to slow in earnest towards the middle half of the decade. Headline: Public pension finances could soon look shakier NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- States and cities will soon have to reveal just how big their pension holes are ...... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Don’t Count on Consumers to Save the Struggling Recovery: Economist

Published on 2012-06-26 07:00:00

Correct, but a limping consumer doesn't necessarily translate into an immediate financial and economic collapse. Negative divergences can last for months, even years. The consumer was hurting in 2000, badly so in 2005-2007, yet the stock market took months/years to collapse. Chart: S&P Retail Sector to S&P 500 ratio: Headline: Don’t Count on Consumers to Save the Struggling... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Your ad here, on a fire truck? Broke cities sell naming rights

Published on 2012-06-25 10:57:00

Expect the unexpected as the sovereign debt crisis claims more victims not ready for the social, political, and economic changes coming. Headline: Your ad here, on a fire truck? Broke cities sell naming rights By MICHAEL COOPER updated 6/25/2012 3:57:47 AM ET BALTIMORE — Should this city’s red fire trucks be transformed into rolling billboards? After Baltimore officials made the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Return of Gloom or Reality Check?

Published on 2012-06-25 10:22:00

Standard of Living Spread Widens A Little Each Day

Published on 2012-06-25 06:32:00

The standard of living spread (differences in lifestyles) between the rich and poor widens with each passing day.

The Cat's Movements May Seem Random, But They Have Purpose

Published on 2012-06-24 07:00:00

The day-to-day jumping of the markets when viewed in isolation can look like cat "dancing" on a hot tin roof. My advice is stop following the cat's random movements and start studying the cat's intention to get off the hot roof.

Cash-strapped Municipalities Across America

Published on 2012-06-23 07:35:00

As desperate, cash-strapped municipalities across America search for answers, these outcomes will become more common. Headline: Stockton bankruptcy likely to be costly mess SAN FRANCISCO — A costly mess, including court battles with employees and lenders that could stretch over years, is likely to await Stockton, California, if it cannot reach a last-minute deal with creditors and becomes... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..]

Coordinated Intervention Follows Panic & Fear

Published on 2012-06-22 17:45:00

Correlation between asset classes has risen sharply since 2009. Oil is sending a strong message that could shatter investor confidence soon. Get ready for the coordinated Western worldwide bank and equity markets rescue. The tool will be QE to Infinity, Jim Sinclair. Please heed Jim's warning.

Sorry Perma Bulls, It's Still Risk Off

Published on 2012-06-22 12:53:00

The message of the market trumps all interpretations.

The Process of Capitulation In The Commodity Markets Has Begun

Published on 2012-06-22 07:00:00

Faber suggests the commodity bulls may have finally 'thrown in the towel', but it still looks as if it needs more time and pain. The ebb and follow in the commodity market follows time and price.

Moody's set for bank ratings cuts Thurs

Published on 2012-06-21 14:21:00

Big bank downgrade imminent headline might has well have been worded transition from day to night imminent. Yawn.

Spain pays new record for medium-term debt

Published on 2012-06-21 13:58:00

While all 'media' eyes remain focused on Spain's funding troubles, they continue to miss the financial vultures organizing and circling above Italy. Savvy traders recognize that force measured by volume and price is the key to direction.

China manufacturing weakens further: HSBC

Published on 2012-06-21 07:41:00

The global economy is slowing quickly. Unfortunately, investors and traders have the tendency to substitute discipline for opinion when making investment decisions; this means they usually miss the signs of trouble ahead.

China's Central Bank Willing To Share $3 Trillion

Published on 2012-06-21 07:00:00

Capital flows like water downhill. If obstacles interrupt its flow, it will divert and find another way as long as there's profit. Headline: China's Central Bank Willing To Share $3 Trillion Brazil, Russia, India and China, the BRIC countries, are back to talking about creating a unified financial system where they can avoid euro and dollar volatility. This time, a pooling of Central Bank... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Prepare For Market Seizures

Published on 2012-06-20 14:29:00

Liquidity or velocity always contracts during panics.

Global Capital Flows Influencing Long-Term Rates

Published on 2012-06-20 13:57:00

Capital flows directed by return of rather than return on capital continues to flee the growing risks contained of the periphery economies towards the safety of the center. The center is the US dollar, US bonds, and gold. While operation twist captures a lot of headlines and spawn numerous discussions, today's decision to extend operation twist has little influence on the direction of long-term... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

World Leaders Make Little Headway in Solving Debt Crisis

Published on 2012-06-20 12:38:00

Real world consequences, social, political, intended, and unintended means lots of talk and centralize actions directed down the path of least resistance. This also implies little headway will be made into solving deep structural problems the plague the global economy. Headline: World Leaders Make Little Headway in Solving Debt Crisis SAN JOSÉ DEL CABO, Mexico — President Obama and other... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Problem Is That Money Isn't Going Any Place

Published on 2012-06-20 09:29:00

Kessler:

Watch the Front Line of The Economic Battle

Published on 2012-06-20 07:13:00

While the media focuses on changes in Fed policy, Europe, coalition governments, and endless bailouts designed to buy more time etc, they often ignore the front lines in the economic battle at the expense of fluff. The front line battles are beginning to reflect a slowing global economy with falling growth and consumer expectations. The bond market's confirmed breakout to new highs on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Crop insurance a boon to farmers -- and insurers, too

Published on 2012-06-20 07:00:00

It's a system of socialized losses and privatized gains. Wall Street and the bankers know something about this... Skewing farming to more risky practices is a reason for concern, the critics say. If the bets pay off, then the farmer wins. But if they do not, then the government program makes up the losses so the farmer can bet again the following year. It’s a system of “socialized losses and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

Underpaid, underemployed and barely making ends meet

Published on 2012-06-20 07:00:00

What's playing out in Europe will eventually unfold in America. Headline: Underpaid, underemployed and barely making ends meet Throughout the Great Recession and the not-so-great recovery, the most commonly discussed measure of misery has been unemployment. But many middle-class and working-class people who are fortunate enough to have work are struggling as well, which is why Sherry... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Message From The Euro Market

Published on 2012-06-19 09:42:00

The message from the Euro market is one of increasing downside force. 2010 support, 125.71, was tested and broken on January and May 2012, respectively. Each event occurred on increasing volume. This suggests a down trend with increasing force and likely test of the June 2010 gap support (blue circle) when TIME is right (chart 1). Chart 1: Euro ETF (FXE) REV(E), a measure of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Net worth implosion: It's not just housing

Published on 2012-06-19 07:11:00

The Great Recession which only massive liquidity inject hide the effects of another deflationary depression wiped out nearly 30 years of net worth gains (housing, stocks, jobs, etc) for the typical household. It's not over yet. Headline: Net worth implosion: It's not just housing Americans' net worth collapsed in recent years, but don't blame the housing market for it all. New Census... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Jim Rogers' Latest Investment Interview Shows Him Turning Into A China Bear

Published on 2012-06-19 07:00:00

Jim Rogers represents boots on the ground in China and the surrounding area, so I follow his assessment of timing closely. "I expect the U.S. and Europe to slowdown in 2013 and 2014," says Rogers. "You have two of the largest economic blocks slowing down, so most of China — especially those dealing with Europe and the U.S. — will have problems." Rogers goes on to state that if the Chinese... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

Greek leaders seek coalition, want to ease bailout

Published on 2012-06-19 07:00:00

The old English idiom to have one's cake and eat too describes the European bailout.

Funding gap for state retirement benefits rises to $1.4 trillion

Published on 2012-06-19 06:38:00

Continued deterioration in unfunded liabilities reflects the world’s growing financial crisis and self-reinforcing, vicious cycle already established the US Federal and State Budgets (Jim's Formula). Headline: Funding gap for state retirement benefits rises to $1.4 trillion By Allison Linn State governments face a gap of more than $1 trillion between what they say they will provide... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic

Published on 2012-06-18 17:13:00

As of June 18th, WA = 45% Contrarian traders and investors are waiting for 0% readings for entry.

Google: Government Censorship Requests 'Alarming'

Published on 2012-06-18 10:35:00

History has shown us time after time that the greatest threat to a society, culture, and personal freedoms are internal rather than external. As the sovereign debt crisis evolves, intensifies, and spreads old-fashioned book burnings will be replaced with electronic censorship, kills switches, permitting for assembly. Let’s hope that a nation forged by a shot heard around the world doesn’t end... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..]

Italy's Monti raises specter of crisis amid protests

Published on 2012-06-18 10:22:00

Austerity to save whom? A test of the high volume November low is inevitable. Chart: Italian Treas Bond ETN Headline: Italy's Monti raises specter of crisis amid protests (Reuters) - Italy is again flirting with economic disaster, Prime Minister Mario Monti said, as crowds massed in sporadically violent protest at his austerity programme a day ahead of an election in Greece... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

No let-up for Spain, Italy pain after Greek vote

Published on 2012-06-18 08:00:00

The long-term structural problems still plague the euro zone regardless of any election outcome.

French Socialists win absolute parliament majority

Published on 2012-06-17 22:25:00

Forget Greece, the real story is France.

Euro crisis far from over, stock analysts warn

Published on 2012-06-17 21:51:00

The Greeks through the selection of the New Democracy party and acceptance of the original bailout terms have chosen the Euro over the Drachma at least for now. This supports further bailouts and perhaps a loosening austerity as the sovereign debt crisis expands across the world's periphery economies. Crisis delayed, but likely not averted. The price action in the US bond market will be... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

A Global Recession? The Warning Signs Are Everywhere

Published on 2012-06-17 07:05:00

I agree.

Let Spain, Greece Go Bankrupt

Published on 2012-06-16 07:00:00

Rising debt burdens created this economic mess, so bailouts funded by additional debt only augment the problem. Intermarket analysis suggests risk-off money flows.

Ebb Will Turn To Flow In Commodity Markets Eventually

Published on 2012-06-16 07:00:00

Beef won't be the only expensive thing for dinner when ebb turns to flow in the commodity markets. Chart: CRBFoodstuffs And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change Headline: Beef: It’s What’s (Expensive) for Dinner Throwing a few steaks and burgers on the grill, you might have noticed, has gotten more expensive as the cost of beef has climbed over the past year. And it's only going higher, say... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

Manufacturing Malaise: Key Measures Point to Declines

Published on 2012-06-15 13:36:00

The equity bulls want more stimulus, but history reminds us that fiscal and monetary policy decision, i.e. additional stimulus or QE(n), tends to be reactive rather than proactive. Also, anything beyond token increase in stimulus might be difficult to defend with the S&P 500 only 6% and 15% below its 2012 and 2007 (all-time) highs. Headline: Manufacturing Malaise: Key Measures Point to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

U.S. bank downgrades loom

Published on 2012-06-15 13:35:00

How many rating agencies were proactive in early to mid 2008?

Follow the Money, Not the Hype

Published on 2012-06-15 08:24:00

Investors are often forced in and out of markets by reactionary headlines. Expect the Greek elections and surrounding hype to push around global markets over the short-term. Long-term capital flows, however, ignore noise and focus on the messages of the markets. The collective message illustrated in the charts below has been one of negative divergences and risk-off money flows since late... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Taxes Are Already Going Up, The Formula Slowly Weakening

Published on 2012-06-15 07:00:00

'Temporary' taxes increases designed to prevent a nasty fall from the fiscal cliff have a history of stickiness once enacted. In other words, temporary quickly becomes permanent when motivated by self-preservation, greed, and the sheer size of the cliff ahead. The counter trend rally in the US federal budget (the Formula) represents the calm between storms. The world's sovereign debt crisis... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Greece Sinks Into Despair: 'There's Nothing Here Anymore'

Published on 2012-06-15 06:11:00

No election outcome in Greece will reverse the flight of capital from the Euro zone's weaker members and the Euro in general. While the world markets rose on speculation that central banks stand ready for coordinated action yesterday, they could just as easily reverse those gains in the future based on reality that Germany will not be swayed by quick fixes and the historical tendency of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Investors tout 'condemnation' for housing fix

Published on 2012-06-14 19:00:00

Funny how condemnation through public power of eminent domain is considered a viable solution to the housing problem by the private sector when the transition of capital, power, and influence from the public to private sector is already underway. This logic is known as swimming against current of global capital flows (see chart). Not a good idea. Chart: Large Cap Total Return Index... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Child Born in 2011 May Cost $234,900 to Raise, USDA Says

Published on 2012-06-14 14:43:00

Unfortunately, this most likely means more children raised by state and federal funds. While austerity backed by creditors looks good on paper, social reality has a nasty way of ensuring that the path of least resistance will be taken. That is, currency devaluation or QE to infinity until confidence breaks. Headline: Child Born in 2011 May Cost $234,900 to Raise, USDA Says A middle-income... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Don't Follow The Weak Hands

Published on 2012-06-14 09:03:00

The exodus from stock mutual funds resumes as investors pull out $3 billion in June 2012. There's a reason why the public is referred to as the weak hands behind closed doors. They often sell when they should be buying and vice versa. Are the strong hands buying in size as the public sells? Not quite. The better long-term entry points often coincide with statistical extremes of emotion... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Alan Greenspan on U.S. Debt

Published on 2012-06-14 07:00:00

Read between the lines: A mixture of excessive debt spread across the Western economies and zero political will to restrain deficit spending has the potential to send the US and global economy down the path of slow growth and currency-induced cost push inflation.

Central Bank Money-Printing: $6 Trillion...and Counting

Published on 2012-06-13 11:00:00

Any long-time reader that's still shocked by this headline is likely surprised by the fact that the sky is blue. Jim uses the ski jump recovery illustration to hammer the point home. Perhaps if I put yodeling mountain climber from Cliffhangers on the growing debt pile, more readers would appreciate the severity of the economic mess brewing. Chart: Federal Debt Held by Foreign &... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Retail sales post biggest fall in two years

Published on 2012-06-13 08:40:00

The concept of surge in physics, the rate of change of acceleration, the derivative of acceleration with respect to time, the second derivative of velocity, or the third derivative of position is an important concept in pragmatic economics.

Opinions or "Signs" Often Mislead

Published on 2012-06-13 07:03:00

Signs indicating that US Treasuries could be a bubble about to burst have existed for months if not years. Investors, however, cannot be blinded by headlines and/or opinions.

Follow the Setup in US Long Bonds

Published on 2012-06-12 08:18:00

The transition from accumulation to distribution in the Yen is not concentrated. If the distribution becomes statistically concentrated, the creative trader might be motivated to fade the rally. Since all markets have become increasingly interconnected as the sovereign debt crisis evolves and intensifies, your intermarket analysis is sound. I, however, suggest you let the message of the market... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Public-employee pensions face a rollback in Calif

Published on 2012-06-12 07:00:00

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Spain's bank rescue won't solve all Europe's problems

Published on 2012-06-11 11:08:00

The message of the market, particularly the action in the US bond market, told us this much early into the trading session.

In The News

Published on 2012-06-11 07:08:00

The sovereign debt crisis is spreading across the periphery. It will turn inward soon. Headline: Italy stuck in deep economic recession MILAN (AP) -- Official statistics confirm that Italy's economy contracted by a quarterly rate of 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year, the worst contraction in three years. The painful recession keeps pressure on Premier Mario Monti's... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Argentina loses a third of its dollar deposits

Published on 2012-06-11 07:00:00

Very whacked out story...Bob.C Indeed, Bob The cleanest shirt in the laundry hamper have Argentinians rushing to withdrawal $100 million every day despite tightening currency controls that includes dollar sniffing dogs. Eric Headline: Argentina loses a third of its dollar deposits * Argentines reacting to foreign exchange restrictions * About $100 mln in dollars withdrawn... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Japan hails Spain lifeline as 'major first step'

Published on 2012-06-11 07:00:00

More assurances of future stability through the mechanism of infinite liquidity (bailouts and debt). The 2007 up trend in the Japanese Yen failed in March 2012. The invisible hand which had accumulated the decline is beginning to distribute as past support is challenged as resistance.

Euro Zone Leaders Agree to Lend Spain Up to $125 Billion

Published on 2012-06-10 17:00:00

Liquidity will be provided to all because the world is not ready for a withdrawal of a euro zone member. Do you have systemic insurance? Headline: Euro Zone Leaders Agree to Lend Spain Up to $125 Billion Euro zone finance ministers agreed on Saturday to lend Spain up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion) to shore up its teetering banks and Madrid said it would specify precisely how much it... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

If You Are Not Worried About 2013, Please — Get Worried Read more: Jim Rogers: ‘If You Are Not Worried About 2013, Please — Get Worried’

Published on 2012-06-10 07:00:00

Source: newsmax.com ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations.Thank you for your contribution [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Do You Have Systemic Insurance?

Published on 2012-06-09 08:49:00

Eidesis Capital Source: eidesiscapital.com ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations.Thank you for your contribution [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Staggering Amounts of Gold & Silver Being Purchased

Published on 2012-06-09 07:00:00

Those expecting the mainstream media to confirm huge physical purchases through London will be disappointed. Gold will be trading at significantly higher prices by the time China reports its actual reserves So as I said earlier, the bullion banks are ringing the register at both ends, while trying to extricate themselves from their short positions in the paper market. They are attempting to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Weekend Thoughts and Charts

Published on 2012-06-08 13:02:00

Thoughts and charts to mull over the weekend: Ignore the machinations intended to divert and misdirect because nothing has changed. The charts below tell us that the sovereign debt crisis, similar to 1933, is beginning to widen and intensify. Barring the resurrection of Herbert Hoover, QE to infinite is assured. Chart 1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Total Credit Market Debt (TCMD)... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Spain to Request EU Bank Aid on Saturday: Sources

Published on 2012-06-08 07:34:00

The interconnectedness of capital flows and world markets ensures that there will be unpleasant consequences if a weaker member withdrawals from the euro zone. Simply put, the world is not ready for those consequences. If necessary, liquidity will be provided to all to protect the world’s financial system a little longer. Headline: Spain to Request EU Bank Aid on Saturday: Sources Spain... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic

Published on 2012-06-08 07:24:00

Expect the Unexpected

Published on 2012-06-08 07:00:00

Ignore the Fed and follow the message of the markets. The junk to high grade corporate bond spread has been sending the message of risk-off since May 2012 (chart). Moreover, a series of negative, widening divergences with stock prices increases the probability of panic and unexpected policy decision. Chart: Junk to high-grade corporate bond spreads (JHGCR) and S&P 500 Headline: ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Ignore the MOPE and Fabrications

Published on 2012-06-07 13:16:00

Jim is right.

Bailout optimism drives world stock rebound

Published on 2012-06-07 10:26:00

While emotional interpretations, such as "bailout optimism drives world stock rebound" generate clicks, they're most often the kiss of death for traders and investors when acted upon.

Stock futures surge after China cut

Published on 2012-06-07 07:00:00

The floodgates of liquidity will be opened in order to protect a financial system buckling from the weight of the sovereign debt crisis. Unfortunately, while one hand provides liquidity, numerous others (for example capital in Japan and China) are withdrawing it. Headline: Stock futures surge after China cut (Reuters) - Stock index futures sharply added to gains on Thursday after the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

San Diego And San Jose Approve Pension Cuts In A Landslide Vote

Published on 2012-06-06 12:55:00

Public workers be warned/damned this trend will spread across an increasingly polarized nation. Scott Walker's reelect win in Wisconsin last night galvanized this trend. Headline: San Diego And San Jose Approve Pension Cuts In A Landslide Vote SAN DIEGO (AP) — Voters in two major California cities overwhelmingly approved cuts to retirement benefits for city workers in what supporters... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

More Young Americans Out of High School Are Also Out of Work

Published on 2012-06-06 12:39:00

Whether it be the Arab spring or the collapse of the American dream, the driving force of social and political change will be the lack of opportunity for both the uneducated and educated. Headline: More Young Americans Out of High School Are Also Out of Work For this generation of young people, the future looks bleak. Only one in six is working full time. Three out of five live with their... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Long Bond Prices Slip as Traders Cash In

Published on 2012-06-06 10:23:00

Traders cash in, but for how long? While a growing number of traders and investors are looking to short US long bonds, but this trade could prove difficult and frustrating in the month/years ahead. The 30-year long bond’s breakout to historical highs last week was confirmed by significant surge in volume (chart). This surge marked by the blue circle suggests higher prices once... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Pessimism Towards Euro Rising, But Capital Not Concentrated

Published on 2012-06-06 07:00:00

The Euro and its bearish psychology is beginning to display signs of a crowded trade. Pessimism alone, however, is not enough. Short/(long) side concentration of capital illustrated by green/(red) boxes in the chart below is probably the most important signal.

Spain Warns Market Access Being Shut, Calls For EU Action On Bank Recap

Published on 2012-06-05 15:13:00

The calls for liquidity will be answered soon. Headline: Spain Warns Market Access Being Shut, Calls For EU Action On Bank Recap By David Roman MADRID--Spain Tuesday urged euro-zone partners to act faster to help support its enfeebled banks, with Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro saying that the government has effectively lost access to capital markets because of steep risk premiums demanded... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Full-time jobs are getting harder to find

Published on 2012-06-05 10:49:00

The Great Recession which has become the socially acceptable description of yet another Depression continues to wreck havoc on families across America.

Should the U.S. be borrowing more?

Published on 2012-06-05 10:05:00

Should junkies be allowed to buy drugs? No, but they as long as there's a profit motive, expect that they will. Don't bother asking if the United States should, the real question is how much longer will market forces allow them to borrow. The sovereign debt crisis, currently contained to the world's periphery, will come home to roost at the center when wolf pack runs out of the easy... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Compare the Cycles 1929-1944 and 2000-Present

Published on 2012-06-05 07:49:00

1929-1944 & 2000-Present Comparison: S&P 500 to Gold ($/oz) Ratio ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations.Thank you for your contribution [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Record number of Phd recipients on food stamps

Published on 2012-06-04 16:52:00

This news may be a little stale, but the message is still eye-opening to say the least. If public actually looked at what's being swept under the rug as meaningless information about USA, Inc., I suspect they'd be horrified by what they saw. This obscure headline is just another reason why Jim's statement of QE to infinity is totally correct. Headline: Record number of Phd recipients on food... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic

Published on 2012-06-04 07:00:00

GLD's total assets WA stochastic reads 33%.

False Breakdown In Equities But Patience Still Required

Published on 2012-06-04 07:00:00

No More Unemployment Checks For Seasonal Workers

Published on 2012-06-03 20:36:00

Saying NO to enhanced social program is a form of austerity. Austerity curtails economic growth. A slowing economy increases the need for QE(1), QE(2), QE(3)...QE(n). QE(n) provides OPM to enhanced social programs. Return to 1. Headline: No More Unemployment Checks For Seasonal Workers NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Should seasonal workers be allowed to collect unemployment checks in their... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

No Offense, But Don't Let The U.N. Do Your Thinking

Published on 2012-06-03 08:25:00

Once the 2012 commodity pause is over (chart 1), expect rising food prices (chart 2) and unemployment to drive social unrest throughout the world. You don't need the UN to decipher the market's message. Gold will continue to defy the experts by outperforming commodities (chart 3). Chart 1: CRBFoodstuffs And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change Chart 2: Gold and CRBFood to CRBSpot... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Layoffs on the rise across Corporate America

Published on 2012-06-03 06:36:00

The public is beginning to recognize what we already know, the labor market and economy have weakened significantly this spring. Video: Layoffs on the rise across Corporate America Source: usatoday.com ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

NYMEX-Crude down a fifth week on economic worries

Published on 2012-06-02 07:03:00

While crude oil is falling on economic fears, its rising diffusion index (DI) reading, nearly above 60%, illustrates accumulation by smart money (chart). This setup looks similar to fall of 2011 when retail investors motivated by headline fears had pushed oil down to $75.

Concentration In US Long Bonds Warns of Profit-Taking Ahead

Published on 2012-06-02 06:30:00

The time to by bonds was late March when the long bond diffusion index surged above 60%. As of 5/29, bonds DI has fallen to -96% (chart). This is the lowest reading since 2001 and suggests extreme outflows. Smart money knows market breathe in and out and will take profits in the middle of a fear-induced buying panic. Chart: US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And US Treasury Bond Diffusion Index... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

California politicians taking pay cut

Published on 2012-06-02 06:13:00

The transition of capital from the public to private will be accompanied by job loss, lower pay, and general reductions in the standard of livings by public workers. Headline: California politicians taking pay cut NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- California's budget woes have come home to roost for the state's politicians. California's Citizens Compensation Commission, an independent government body,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

QE to infinity is more certain than death and taxes

Published on 2012-06-01 13:10:00

QE to infinity is more certain than death and taxes. See the video we posted here on jsmineset.com today that gives you the worst case economic and social scenario for 2012, unless we go to full QE before the end of June 2012. Problems are reaching terminal velocity right now, here, today. QE to infinity might hold things together, in a sense, for 24 more months with gold above $3000.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Spain DefaultSwaps at Record as Bond Risk Increases in Europe

Published on 2012-06-01 10:35:00

All signs pointing to official policy action this summer. Headline: Spain Default Swaps at Record as Bond Risk Increases in Europe The cost of insuring against a default on Spanish government bonds rose to a record as the nation’s debt crisis deepened. Credit-default swaps linked to Spain’s notes climbed nine basis points to 609 at 10:40 a.m. in London, according to data compiled by... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

QE(N) Will Lift All Asset Boats

Published on 2012-06-01 10:07:00

The key to timing short-term trend inflections is volume. Volume at support and resistance zones, for example climax bottoms and tops as well as gaps, reveal changes in the force behind the trend. Richard Wyckoff made millions by recognizing that when price fails to break resistance or support with force, it inevitably reversed and attempted to break support or resistance with force. 74.7... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year

Published on 2012-06-01 08:11:00

More evidence of what Insight readers already know, the economy is slowing.

Gold ETF (GLD) Total Assets WA Stochastic

Published on 2012-06-01 07:08:00

The third hook in the D-wave decline

Money flies out of Spain, regions pressured

Published on 2012-05-31 11:34:00

While contagion continues to spread throughout the periphery of Greece, Spain, Portugal, and lesser degree Italy and Japan, it remains largely contained as capital flees towards the safety of the center. This dynamic won't hold for long. The center's growing inability service its existing debts will eventually force capital from the public to private sector. When that happens, likely... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Announced U.S. Job Cuts Jump 67% From Year Ago, Challenger Says

Published on 2012-05-31 07:25:00

The public is beginning to realize what Insights readers already know, the labor market is weak and the economy is slowing. The slow uptick in the announced layoffs since 2010 illustrates this point (chart). Chart: Challenger, Gray, and Christmas Announced Layoffs (ALO) And YOY Change Headline:

U.S. 10-year yield sinks to record low

Published on 2012-05-31 07:00:00

The 10-year bond diffusion index (DI) inches closer to generating a sell signal as fear and panic grow. A lot of investors are rushing into the safety of bonds while yields plunge to 60-year lows. The falling DI trend, often seen in but not limited to the precious metals market, illustrates a transfer from strong to weak hands. Chart: US 7-10 YR (IEF) And US 10YR Diffusion Index (DI)... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Dealer's Feet Are Getting Fidgety In Three Card Monte Shill

Published on 2012-05-30 10:17:00

The invisible hand is extremely good dealer in the three-card monte con called paper control. Shill (smart money) pretends to conspire with the mark (retail money) to cheat the dealer (controllers), while in fact conspiring with the dealer to cheat the mark. While the headlines paint a dismal picture for Europe, thus, herding money into the dollar, the world's only safe haven according to the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Climbs to Highest Since 2007

Published on 2012-05-30 07:00:00

The US economy is all about spending and confidence to spend. Gold will likely remain under pressure until the current power up trend (PUT) established in 2011 fails to the downside (see chart). The break will be unexpected as consumer expectation have reached levels not seen since 2007.

Spain to go to market to fund banks, regions

Published on 2012-05-29 10:20:00

Spanish bond yields are rising again, and its third largest bank was nationalized over the weekend as their domestic economy contracts at an alarming rate. The sovereign debt contagion is clearly not limited Greece. The need to act decisively will grow as the infection continues to spread throughout Europe. Headline: Spain to go to market to fund banks, regions MADRID (Reuters) -... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Greece Pours $22.6 Billion Into Four Biggest Banks

Published on 2012-05-29 07:05:00

More money pours in and deposits and capital flee Greece. Officials have warned that the state could run out of cash to pay pensions and salaries by end-June. As Jim suggests, this could be key to timing. Headline: Greece Pours $22.6 Billion Into Four Biggest Banks Greece handed 18 billion euros ($22.6 billion) to its four biggest banks on Monday, an official said, allowing the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

China's ICBC has big dreams for bullion business

Published on 2012-05-29 07:05:00

Negative lease spreads represent the paper that leans on price. As price declines, the paper is removed and lease spreads expand towards zero (see table). Reuters reports that the Chinese through the the world's largest bank by value are pushing to gain entry into this lucrative game of control. Table:

Mailbox

Published on 2012-05-29 07:00:00

Breakout remains in tact as the support zone is quite wide (see chart). Chart: S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)* S&P Gold from 1945, Barron's Gold Stock Index from 1939-1945, 1922-1939 Homestake Mining has the price fallen back below the longterm breakout? the latest chart ive seen is april 2012 and the indices fell 20% more since then.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

My Broker Is EF Hutton, And EF Hutton Says...

Published on 2012-05-28 10:04:00

When Harry Schultz talks, people listen (see video). Schutlz's intel suggests the inevitability of liquidity to infinity to retain control. While it may take weeks/months to unfold, it could be just enough time for the invisible hand to finish its operation to regain control in gold, silver, equities, and forex markets. For instance, when silver's spreading activity (SA) and diffusion... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Summer of Frustration Ahead?

Published on 2012-05-28 07:00:00

The invisible hand uses the easy headline explanations as cover for the true intentions.

Resolve of Small Cap Stock Bulls To Be Tested

Published on 2012-05-26 09:52:00

It could be a anxious early summer for unhedged small cap stock bulls. Chart: Russell 2000 (IWM) And Russell 2000 Diffusion Index (DI) ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Invisible Hand Is Regaining Control of Gold

Published on 2012-05-26 08:47:00

The invisible hand continues to lean on every short term gold rally. I know this the last thing that the dejected community wants to read, but it is what it is. The gold lease spread composite will turn from negative to positive when it's done leaning. Table: Gold Lease Spread Composite (GLSC) and Gold Price, USD Smart money knows we're close. Gold's diffusion index remains above 60%... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Someone Is Accumulating Crude Oil As It Declines

Published on 2012-05-26 07:39:00

The invisible hand, already buying weakness, will continue to do so until WTI falls into the $86-76 range within 5-10 weeks. Diffusion index readings above 60 represents concentrated buying (by the invisible hand) as the market declines into the morass of fear this summer. When ever retail and spec trader is short crude, it will bottom abruptly with little media warning.

A Mess the 45th President Will Inherit

Published on 2012-05-26 07:15:00

Infinite liquidity and taxpayer funds backstop everything deemed too critical to fail. Headline: A Mess the 45th President Will Inherit President Obama's standard gripe is that the economy has performed so poorly during his term because of the financial crisis he inherited from George W. Bush. But this week it is Mr. Obama who has bequeathed to his successors a landmark in financial... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Demand for Business Equipment in U.S. Declines in April

Published on 2012-05-25 14:30:00

An important trendline of the 2009 recovery has failed.

Real federal deficit dwarfs official tally

Published on 2012-05-25 07:00:00

If household income was taxed at 100%, interest payments on existing debt would be addressed. Debt monetization or QE to infinity is no longer a policy choice. It's a necessity unless a self-sustaining economic recovery materializes from the sea of centralized liquidity. Headline: Real federal deficit dwarfs official tally The typical American household would have paid nearly all of its... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Targeting The Flow of Money To Reduce The Deficit

Published on 2012-05-24 12:13:00

Big brother needs beer money for the endless summer party and will show no remorse about sticking his hand in little brother's pocket for it. Those that think that it stops here (new tolls and taxes and endless fee increases) are probably spending too much at big brother's party.

Waiting for Panic In Equities

Published on 2012-05-24 09:33:00

Euro zone officials agree to prepare for Greek exit scenario

Published on 2012-05-23 10:57:00

The markets and actions of Greek people discount reality better than any political discussion. Headline: Euro zone officials agree to prepare for Greek exit scenario May 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone officials have agreed that each euro zone country must prepare an individual contingency plan in the eventuality that Greece decides to leave the single currency area, two eurozone officials said... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Beating The Grass To Startle The Snakes

Published on 2012-05-23 10:33:00

In the past I often wrote that the invisible hand beating the grass to startle the snakes;The snakes are the weak handed holders of gold and silver. The trading funds and retail money snakes are scattering in the grass as I write. The surge in spreading activity (SA - red line) from 20% in late March to 71% while the diffusion index climbs above 85% (DI - blue line) reveals their growing... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

S&P 500 Technical Review

Published on 2012-05-23 09:19:00

The red dots on the NYSE composite illustrate statistical spiks in the TRIN (chart 1).

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) And S&P 500

Published on 2012-05-23 06:45:00

Negative divergences tend to setup equity declines. No divergences yet. Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and S&P 500 AVG ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Greyerz - Customer Shocked “Allocated” Gold Not in Swiss Bank

Published on 2012-05-22 12:40:00

The risk of have gold in the banking system is major.

JPMorgan Chase loss only going to get worse

Published on 2012-05-21 20:55:00

While market force should open a can of whoop ass on JPMorgan, they'll likely be contained by the financial world's version of mutual assured destruction known as "too big to fail." The derivatives closet is bulging with so many skeletons it no longer latches shut. The number being bandied about now is closer to a range of $6 billion to $7 billion, according to several people working on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Poverty Increasing Among Retirees

Published on 2012-05-21 15:11:00

A consequence of QE to infinity is increasing poverty rates for anyone without rising inflation-adjusted incomes. Retirees dependent on fixed incomes and government subsidies to maintain current standard of livings are particularly vulnerable. Headline: Poverty Increasing Among Retirees Growing numbers of older Americans are spending their retirement years in poverty, according to a... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Time For Blasphemy? About Damn Time

Published on 2012-05-21 09:26:00

Turn off the TV, ignore the headlines, follow the money, and open your mind to the possibilities. What if commodities are NOT DEAD (see chart 1 and 2). Chart 1: Australian Dollar (FXA) And Australian Dollar Diffusion Index (DI) Chart 2: CRB Spot And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change What if Jim's suggestion that consensus expectation of a significantly lower Euro might be wrong. ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold's Aging D-Wave Decline

Published on 2012-05-21 07:51:00

The long and powerful C-wave advance of 2009-2011 has been followed by a D-wave decline of similar proportions. The invisible hand continues redistribute control of the trend from weak to strong hands. 20% percentile or less is considered statistically oversold.

The Pursuit of Balance Finds Few Masters

Published on 2012-05-18 20:17:00

How many investors motivated largely by fear and highly motivated misinformation campaign dumped their gold and silver positions last week? Jim is absolutely right -

China May Surpass India as Biggest Gold Market, WGC Says

Published on 2012-05-18 09:26:00

Follow the money from West to East. China is becoming dominant player and holder of gold. Headline: China May Surpass India as Biggest Gold Market, WGC Says Gold demand in China may surge as much as 30 percent this year as rising incomes boost consumption, helping the country topple India as the world’s largest bullion market on an annual basis, according to the World Gold Council. Demand,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Health care costs for family of 4 top $20,000

Published on 2012-05-18 09:17:00

American families cannot absorb this type of burden without a significant reduction in their standard of livings. That's already happening. QE to infinity, the policy of last resort, will push health care costs higher. This suggests that socialized medicine will become the only viable health care option for the masses. The toxic mixture of rising debt burdens and aggressive currency... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

USA Jobs Reality

Published on 2012-05-17 13:19:00

13,000 here, 25,000 there, and suddenly it all starts to add up. Political rhetoric may live in fantasy land, but the markets do not. Headline: Postal Service announces mass layoffs The United States Postal Service announced today it will close 48 mail processing and distribution centers this summer, cutting 13,000 jobs. The Shallowford Road center was marked for closure earlier this... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Cause and Effect Control Gold

Published on 2012-05-17 12:15:00

The heavy hand emerged around $1665. Rising gold lease spreads as price declines illustrate the unwinding of cause and effect.

Stay Balanced And Employ Discpline of Thought

Published on 2012-05-17 09:46:00

I absolutely agree, Jim. The Federal reserve has not failed any sitting Administration as long as I can remember. Unfortunately, I cannot remember much past Jimmy Carter. Jim is right, the Fed's ability to stare down the market is finite. The steady decay in the private sector credit trends illustrated in the table below has quantitative easing (QE) to infinity written all over it. Total... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Japanese pension fund switches to gold

Published on 2012-05-16 12:34:00

One of many that will switch into gold as a means of reducing its sovereign risk. Even a small global reallocation into gold will pressure already an already tight physical market. Thank god for those "bullion backed" paper ETFs. Without them, where would the new supply come from? Pension fund reallocation into gold are most likely replacing one risk (sovereign) with another (paper claims to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Soros Talks Everyone Go Fetal, He Acts And No One Notices

Published on 2012-05-16 10:02:00

Two things happen when Soros says anything remotely negative about gold. First, the headline and laptop experts organize to parse every word in order to support the "gold top" thesis. Second, the gold community immediately assumes the fetal position. Now, when Soros acts bullishly towards gold, a key distinction from talks, it's generally the silent treatment from all. This is how I like... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Follow the Money Not Intentions

Published on 2012-05-16 09:24:00

The recipients of free money are rarely those originally targeted by the policy. That's how it works. As Jim often says QE will approach infinity (because it must), redirection and abuses will become the norm rather than the exception. Headline: Needy States Use Housing Aid Cash to Plug Budgets Hundreds of millions of dollars meant to provide a little relief to the nation’s struggling... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Greeks Withdraw Nearly $1 Billion From Local Banks

Published on 2012-05-16 06:42:00

The market is demanding liquidity while policies and politician counter with austerity. The mismatch in expectations is eroding confidence both on a domestic and international scale. Headline: Greeks Withdraw Nearly $1 Billion From Local Banks Greek depositors withdrew 700 million euros ($900 million) from the nation's local banks recently, said President Karolos Papoulias, though the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Greece Gets Hint of Leeway From Euro Officials

Published on 2012-05-15 12:30:00

Liquidity floats all boats until the public can no longer afford to eat. Headline: Greece Gets Hint of Leeway From Euro Officials European governments hinted at giving Greece extra time to meet budget-cut targets, as long as the financially stricken country’s feuding politicians put together a ruling coalition committed to austerity. Calling talk of a Greek pullout from the euro “nonsense”... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and mor [..]

California wants to tax rich to solve budget woes

Published on 2012-05-15 12:28:00

The rich, high mobile, will simply leave California. Headline: California wants to tax rich to solve budget woes NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Tax the rich! That's how California Governor Jerry Brown wants to solve the state's growing budget crisis that now nears $16 billion. The governor laid out his revised spending plan Monday. It would slash $8.3 billion from almost every part of the state's... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Emotional Bias Drive Short-Term Market Interpretations

Published on 2012-05-15 10:04:00

The retest of long-term resistance as support is normal market action.

Positive Divergences Suggests Downside Force Weakening In Equities

Published on 2012-05-15 09:02:00

Positive divergences between price, standard norm(E) and McClellan Oscillator(E), and statistically oversold readings (Std Norm < -1.96) often anticipate tradable bottoms (see chart). Statistically oversold readings, standard norm reading exceeding +/- 1.96, often coincide with the emotional extremes of trend exhaustion. The market should attempt a rally after the first technical... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Diffusion Index Readings And Seismic Activity In Gold And Silver

Published on 2012-05-14 10:34:00

Ephrem, Correct. High diffusion index (DI) readings anticipated tradable bottoms, but these advances fizzled due to the distribution of paper control behind the scenes. The "earthquakes before the price eruption" signal analyzes the distribution of control by the various players - some players being more important than others. It generates an earthquake (signal) when conditions turn favorable... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Earthquakes Before The Price Eruption In Silver Coming

Published on 2012-05-14 07:27:00

Silver will be the key to timing precious metals in the coming weeks.

The Invisible Hand Manages Gold & Silver

Published on 2012-05-13 07:37:00

The public is sprinting away from gold faster than shoppers vying for the day after Thanksgiving door buster deals moments after the front doors are opened.

Gold's High Body Count Event Stretching From New York To Beijini

Published on 2012-05-13 07:00:00

I suspect gold traders have been salivating over gold's recent earthquake activity.

Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Gives Up U.S. Citizenship Before IPO

Published on 2012-05-12 07:40:00

The main limitation of socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money to spend. If we taxed the rich at 100%, it wouldn't even come close to balancing the real budget. Besides, the rich are not stupid. The increasing popularity of the trend below suggests they wouldn't stick around long for that. Headline: Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Gives Up U.S. Citizenship Before... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Earthquake Before The Price Eruption In Gold

Published on 2012-05-11 18:29:00

Mount St. Helens experienced a magnitude 4.2 earthquake on March 20th 1980. By March 27, steam started venting on March 27th. Yet, how many residents of Skamania County, Washington, U.S. anticipated the following: On May 18, with little warning, a second earthquake, of magnitude 5.1, triggered a massive collapse of the north face of the mountain. It was the largest known debris avalanche in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Invisible Hand's Influence On Short-Term Price

Published on 2012-05-11 13:27:00

Price tends to stumble when the invisible hand pushes. If you're a efficient market theorist, don't bother clicking the table below. Table: Gold and Silver Price and Composite Lease Spread ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Leading Formula Provides A Different Look

Published on 2012-05-11 08:15:00

The leading formula, calculated from tax withheld rather than total receipts, provides a slightly different perspective of economic activity in the United States.

The Formula's Trend Will Anticipate The Next Economic Shock

Published on 2012-05-11 07:00:00

Failure of the formula's latest and greatest counter trend rally that saves the day will only increase the pressure for another one of Bernanke's famous helicopter money drop (see chart).

Time for 'Helicopter Money Drops'

Published on 2012-05-10 11:16:00

The push to cover silver and gold shorts late in the D-wave implies focused intention. Focused intention tends to precede breaking headline news that shocks both investors and the public. Headline: Citi’s Buiter: Time for 'Helicopter Money Drops' Call Street is starting to sound a little spooked. Citigroup [C 30.82 0.37 (+1.22%) ] on Wednesday issued a client note that just a few... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..]

Kicking The Can Is The Only Option

Published on 2012-05-10 11:04:00

Debt, driven either by necessity or apathy, continues to rise while nearly 50% of Americans say they don't contribute to their retirement plans. Central planners kick the can down the economic road because it’s the only option at this point in the cycle. Severe austerity would cripple a large percentage of the public conditioned by decades of socialism. Headline: 49% of Americans aren't... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Spain nationalizes fourth-largest bank as crisis deepens

Published on 2012-05-10 10:42:00

The derivative pile is massive, highly intertwined throughout the global financial system and will be protected at all cost. Headline: Spain nationalizes fourth-largest bank as crisis deepens MADRID – Spain's government will effectively nationalize the nation's fourth largest bank to shore up the hurting banking sector and try to convince investors the country doesn't need a bailout like... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Wall Street slides 1 percent at open

Published on 2012-05-09 12:19:00

While price could conceivably trade lower, it has once again reached a statistical extreme similar to August and October 2011.

Austerity or Stimulus? Americans Want BOTH, Survey Says

Published on 2012-05-09 11:34:00

Who doesn't want to have one's cake and eat it too? Ever wonder why the can (problem) continues to be kicked down the economic road? Regardless of who becomes President, the economic and political backdrop is still complete FUBAR. While infinite liquidity carries specific consequences, they're still politically and socially palatable when compared against other alternatives. Aggressive... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Trading/Investing with Singular Focus of Mind and Discpline

Published on 2012-05-09 09:21:00

The only things I have come to learn over my years in the markets are the following: Follow the money and ignore the rest. A singular (internal) voice is need to ignore the rest. An internal voice is created by replacing emotion with discipline. Big money is made following secular trend.

Holy Cow Jim!

Published on 2012-05-08 14:26:00

The invisible hand guides the weak (hands) to the elevator shaft with an open hand and smile. Today's panic masks a steady reversal of the money flows that setup this decline. Gold tends to bottom when composite lease spreads turn positive. Chart: Gold Lease Spread Composite (GLSC) and Gold Price, USD A closer look reveals why the invisible hand is smiling.

Negative On Equities Bandwagon Filling Up

Published on 2012-05-08 11:55:00

Booking trading profits should have been done in April 2011, maybe October 2011, and certainly early March 2012.

Invisible Hand Smiling Again

Published on 2012-05-08 09:32:00

The invisible hand which repositioned for a paper attack in gold and silver weeks ago is smiling again today.

Never Mind Europe. Worry About India

Published on 2012-05-08 07:00:00

India, one of the world's largest economies, has been struggling without much recognition since 2008.

Americans: Too broke to go bankrupt

Published on 2012-05-07 12:54:00

What's next, the return of debtors' prison?

Options Are Enzymes Of Paper World

Published on 2012-05-07 08:57:00

Options are the enzymes of the paper world. They catalyze catalyze high energy reactions within biological entropy limits.

'Civilized People Don't Buy Gold': Berkshire's Munger

Published on 2012-05-07 07:11:00

Regardless of the rhetoric, the number of barbarians at the gate of uncertainty grows with each passing day.

Birth/Death Model Smaller Role In Weak Job Recovery

Published on 2012-05-06 21:34:00

Nonfarm payrolls are seasonally adjusted while jobs created or lost from the birth/death model are not. This makes interpretations from month to month comparisons of the two time series spotty at best. A comparison of similar time periods not only removes influence of seasonal adjustments but also helps to quantify why the current job recovery is weak in comparison to the previous... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Victorious French left reclaims the Bastille

Published on 2012-05-06 19:25:00

Oops! A Greek and French Rejection of German-led austerity.

Hey Gold Share Investors, Smoke Doesn't Allows Mean Fire

Published on 2012-05-04 12:15:00

Ignite a smoke grenade and scream fire in crowded movie theater and patrons will run first and ask logical questions second. This is exactly what's going on the gold shares, except substitute smoke grenade with paper supply and fire with "head and shoulders top". I rarely show this chart, but I must to support the following point. Compare multi-decade breakout of 1961 with that of 2010. If... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Pop The Hood And Examine The Engine, Are Kidding Me?

Published on 2012-05-04 09:08:00

Ignore the jobless rate; it's more a product of Disney's Imagineering unit than statistical reality. The real unemployment rate is much higher than reported.

Waiting For The Next Earthquake In Silver

Published on 2012-05-04 07:59:00

Falling lease spreads continue to reflect the heavy hand of control leaning on the price of silver (see chart 1). Chart: Silver Lease Spread Composite (SLSC) and Silver Price, USD Why? A large short position in the future and options market needs to be covered. This can be done into either weakness or strength. The former keeps the short standing upright with money in pocket,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold Shares Performance Relative To Gold Nearing Historic Extremes

Published on 2012-05-03 20:00:00

How bad has the gold shares under performance to gold been since 2010?

Don't Get Caught Chasing Your Tail

Published on 2012-05-03 14:59:00

Testing previous resistance as support after the breakout is nothing more than ebb and flow within a market. Those trading short-term technical patterns better be expert traders, because nothing has reversed the long-term breakout and secular up trend. Double tops, heads and shoulders formations, etc, offer only limited reentry guidance.

Invisible Hand Abusing Silver Investors

Published on 2012-05-03 12:11:00

A short-term peak in the composite lease spread on 4/3 suggested that the invisible hand had started leaning on silver again. The price of silver was $31.98. As of 4/24 composite lease spreads and price of silver continue to decline. As I wrote Monday, "Negative lease spreads tend to reverse into weakness unless the trend becomes uncontrollable." The invisible hand remains in complete... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Labor Market's Influence On The Dollar & Gold

Published on 2012-05-03 09:02:00

Focus on the trends and cycles rather than individual data points.

Factory Orders Post Biggest Decline in Three Years

Published on 2012-05-02 16:13:00

Does an unexpected surge in the PMI, followed by the biggest decline in factory orders in three years the next day really matter to service and consumption driven economy? Headline: Factory Orders Post Biggest Decline in Three Years The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods dropped 1.5 percent after a revised 1.1 percent rise in February. Economists had forecast orders... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Wall Street climbs as economy fears ease

Published on 2012-05-02 07:00:00

Small and large cap stocks total return indices already set new all-time highs in February and March, respectively. Chart 1: Small Cap Stocks Total Return Index (SCSTRI) and Z Scores of Secular Trends Chart 2: Large Cap Stocks Total Return Index (LCSTRI) and Z Scores of Secular Trends Headline: Wall Street climbs as economy fears ease NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rallied on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

States Scaling Back Worker Pensions to Save Money

Published on 2012-05-01 13:50:00

This is only the beginning. Headline: States Scaling Back Worker Pensions to Save Money Neil Carpenter took a pay cut when he accepted a job as a Louisiana state accountant more than 12 years ago, but he figured he would make up for the loss with a retirement check that would guarantee long-term financial security for him and his family. Now the 41-year-old finds his life plan teetering... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Sell in May and Go Away: Will It Work Again?

Published on 2012-05-01 09:55:00

The ebb and flow between supply and demand can often be described in threes. For example, the three drives (pushes) to a top (or bottom) dynamic is often followed by a reversal that returns price to the point of origination. The interplay between supply and demand, often in threes, is responsible for the formation of widely recognized trading patterns such as heads and shoulders... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Invisible Hand Pushing At Silver Again

Published on 2012-04-30 09:18:00

Silver, a smaller and less monetary-driven market than gold, feels the effects of the invisible hand more violently than gold. A falling lease spread composite since late March reveals the hand's reemergence around $31.75. Negative lease spreads tend to reverse into weakness unless the trend becomes uncontrollable. Chart 1: Silver Lease Spread Composite (SLSC) and Silver Price,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Invisible Hand Executes The Weak Gold Policy

Published on 2012-04-28 21:45:00

Gold and silver's surging diffusion indices (DI) illustrates strong accumulation into weakness since 2011. Statistically concentrated readings above 60, either single or clustered, reveals the presence of of what is often referred to as the invisible hand on Insights and what Jim recently described as the weak gold policy. We also have a weak gold policy, which is not to depress the price of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Economy in U.S. Grew Less Than Forecast in First Quarter

Published on 2012-04-27 11:01:00

While it's certain some will be screaming - the consumer is back, don't let their hype blind you to the truth that the US economy remains dangerously unbalanced. Personal consumption expenditures (spending) sacrifices future (investment) for present (consumption) growth. As of Q1 2012, spending as a percentage of GDP has reached an all-time high of 71.25%.

Postal Service bill faces roadblocks

Published on 2012-04-27 10:19:00

Delay and rescue is inevitable as austerity is the driving force behind changes in leadership. Headline: Postal Service bill faces roadblocks WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- A Senate bill passed this week to rescue the indebted U.S. Postal Service is drawing fire from key agency officials and House Republican leaders. And it's looking increasingly unlikely that the House and Senate will agree on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Battle Between Paper Supply and Physical Demand Intensifying

Published on 2012-04-27 09:02:00

I would like to share a brief exchange I had yesterday with Jim. JIM: The COMEX will violate their contract before they allow a squeeze. That is CERTAIN ERIC: Isn't that tantamount to saying there's no way we can delivery on any of the outstanding contracts? Sounds like John Law shell game to me. JIM: Be assured. it will happen. ERIC: I have no doubt. The third count turned... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Spain Cut by S&P for 2nd Time This Year on Banks, Economy

Published on 2012-04-27 07:02:00

The fifth largest economy in the Euro Zone is contracting again. The IMF raised $420 billion to be thrown at Europe, including Spain, that continues to chant "we don't need rescue fund." Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns said the same thing in 2008. Too bad Spain simply cannot print money as a solution to its problems.

A Trend Is More Important Than A Single Data Point

Published on 2012-04-27 07:00:00

Yesterday's durable good report revealed that real business core spending slowed to 1.2% year-over-year (yoy). This annual gain, the slowest reading since March 2010, represents a continuation of an up trend deceleration that began in August 2010.

Tension Rising at the Fed Accompanied By Deaf Ears

Published on 2012-04-26 12:52:00

Stock Market Rally Confirmed By CFNAI

Published on 2012-04-26 08:27:00

As long as the national activity index and equities remain in gear, no long-term negative divergences between them, probabilities favor higher stock prices.

Shorts Now Trapped & Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000

Published on 2012-04-25 20:18:00

Jim Sinclair, Must Listen 4/24/12 Kingworldnews.com Interview: Shorts Now Trapped & Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000 ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations.Thank... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mexico Raised Gold Reserves in March, IMF Data Shows

Published on 2012-04-25 16:03:00

Mexico and Russia announced an increase in their gold reserves in March. China will tell us they've been buying when they want us to know. Headline: Mexico Raised Gold Reserves in March, IMF Data Shows Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March as nations including Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan increased their holdings of the metal,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Mailbox

Published on 2012-04-25 13:43:00

Eric:

Gold drops sharply after Fed stands pat

Published on 2012-04-25 13:28:00

Did you actually expect headlines to say Gold rose sharply after Fed stands pat?

Gold Stocks: Comparing 2012 to 1976 Today

Published on 2012-04-25 10:14:00

Hindsight analysis is always easier than forecasting. Probably why talking heads are a dime a dozen and billionaires are scare. A couple of years from now, the talking heads will be comparing 2012 to 1976 in gold and gold stocks. Chart: Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index to S&P Gold Mining Ratio (LCSCAIGPMR) and Z Score of Secular... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Farwell Factory Jobs, Hello Service Sector

Published on 2012-04-25 09:10:00

The farewell to U.S. factories despite a well-established, obvious trend continues to surprise the public. The transition from manufacturing, goods-producing to service-service producing economy has been an on-going process since 1953 (see chart 1). While hamburger flipping and hospitality jobs appear to an amiable employment solution for the US, it simply cannot generate the tax revenues... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Spend those gift cards, especially if you live in New Jersey

Published on 2012-04-24 13:02:00

Not long ago American raised flags with the words Don't Tread on Me inscribed on them. Americans distracted by their iPads and mobile devices barely notice snake taking a stomping from big brother today. Society once considered the proposal below as stealing rather than good business. Headline: Spend those gift cards, especially if you live in New Jersey Here's another reason not to allow... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Missouri's sound-money bill is really a protest

Published on 2012-04-24 12:40:00

Metallica, Fuel, Reload (1997) Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire, Gimme that which I desire, Ooh! Headline: Missouri's sound-money bill is really a protest When the dreaded hyperinflation arrives, the Missouri House wants Missourians to be ready. Last week, the legislative body passed the Missouri Sound Money Act of 2012, which declares U.S. gold and silver coins to be legal tender in the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Include The Fed As Well

Published on 2012-04-24 12:29:00

Members within both the European (Spain, Greece, and so on.) and US (Illinois, Michigan, and so on) Union are beginning to struggle beyond MOPE's ability to repair it. The release of the Fed minutes, 'interpreted' as an improving economy and ebbing debt crisis reducing probability of further QE(n), sent gold and silver down the elevator shaft about two seconds after its release.

Concentrated Money Flows & The Role of The Invisible Hand

Published on 2012-04-24 09:24:00

Volatile D-wave bottoms, search website for further discussion of the gold and silver A-B-C-D cycle, tend to follow 1-2-3 money flow extremes in the precious metals ETFs. I talked about this setup as far back as January 2011. The paper ETFs (SLV and GLD) born under the guise of convenience have become potent weapons in the game of control often characterized by the actions of the invisible... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

1-2-3 Setup in Gold Turned Green Yesterday

Published on 2012-04-24 07:00:00

The third hook in the 1-2-3 setup turned green yesterday. Green shadings, illustrated in the chart below, represent statistically concentrated outflows in the largest gold ETF (GLD). Extreme outflows are rare and tend to precede significant intermediate-term gold rallies. Chart: London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bing administration says 2,500 job cuts, privatization will save Detroit $250M

Published on 2012-04-23 15:14:00

The Dutch people have been reminded that austerity changes leadership. This principle knows no prejudice or lines of nationality. Headline: Bing administration says 2,500 job cuts, privatization will save Detroit $250M Detroit Mayor Dave Bing’s staff laid out a city budget this morning that cuts more than 2,500 jobs in an effort to shave $250 million from its annual expenses as the city... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold

Published on 2012-04-23 15:01:00

Have no doubt, emotions generated by short-term price action will be influencing investor decision-making a hundred years from now. We may have substituted iPad for the telegraph over the past hundred years, but we're still fairly lousy traders as a species. The real world makes decision based on reality rather than perceptions generated by emotions. Well, at least the real world that stays in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Real, Jobs-Creating Economy Remains Weak

Published on 2012-04-23 07:00:00

Using Fear-Induced Churn To Build Tommorrow's Profits

Published on 2012-04-22 10:39:00

Pessimism and fear reign as the gold stocks test previous resistance as support.

Gold Is Not Dead

Published on 2012-04-21 12:37:00

Market experts continue to pronounced gold as "dead" and primed for another sharp, elevator-shaft style decline. These declines, highly coordinated and professionally executed during the D-wave cycle, tend to be preceded by sharp contractions in the relative (real) lease spreads.

Money Flowing Into Gold and Silver on Weakness

Published on 2012-04-21 09:00:00

Money has been flowing into silver and gold as they bounce along the bottom. Chart 1: Silver London P.M Fixed and the Silver Diffusion Index (DI) A gold DI reading > 60% suggests statistical concentrated (again). Chart 2: Gold London P.M Fixed and Gold Diffusion Index (DI) Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

When Will The Pain End?

Published on 2012-04-20 09:24:00

Many investors are likely wondering when the pain of the D-wave distribution will end in the gold and silver markets on yet another options expiration in April. The invisible hand which provided the paper fuel for the most recent decline has been reversing those positions into price weakness. The steady increase in real silver and gold lease spreads toward zero illustrates one aspect of this... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

U.S. Retail Sales Climb More Than Forecast on Jobs: Economy

Published on 2012-04-19 09:20:00

American continue to "shop til they drop" despite the fact that median retirement account balances as of 2007 with the stock market at or near all-highs was a mere $45,000.

Liquidity Will Support But Won't Save Housing

Published on 2012-04-19 07:00:00

Liquidity lifts all boats until a break in confidence says it can't.

U.S. bows to Wall Street on derivatives

Published on 2012-04-18 12:19:00

You'd have to have been living living under a rock over the past five years to be surprised by this decision.

The Change Face of Infinite QE

Published on 2012-04-18 09:05:00

Additional funds to the IMF represent the change face of QE to infinity.

Don't Confuse Headline Crises With A Full Blown Crisis

Published on 2012-04-18 07:00:00

A full blown crisis, as opposed mini headline crises easily handled by infinite liquidity, will be revealed by a flight of capital from Japanese, German (Europe), and US long bond markets.

Paper to Cash Exchanges Would Be Accompanied By Loud BOOM

Published on 2012-04-17 13:35:00

Agreed. Paper exchanges and their key second derivative markets absorb demand and leverage paper attacks. Watch the spreads between bullion and paper markets swing from one statistical extreme to another before paper attacks to better understand why Jim screams BOOM! Chart: Silver London PM Fixed (SLVL) And SLVL to Silver ETF Ratio ZScores (SLVLSLVR), Monthly Dear Ian: Paper... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Wall Street climbs, boosted by earnings, Spain debt sale

Published on 2012-04-17 10:42:00

The blissful charade of headline interpretations never gets old. Wall Street climbs because liquidity lifts all boats, but the boosted earnings is the explanation investors want to read (believe). Headline: Wall Street climbs, boosted by earnings, Spain debt sale NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose at the open on Tuesday, with the Dow industrials climbing as much as 1 percent, as investors... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

D-Wave Declines in Gold Test Patience

Published on 2012-04-17 07:10:00

D-wave hooks form under a backdrop of fear and terminate when WA crosses above 50 percentile. Chart: London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Extremes, Divergences, and Art of Independent Thinking

Published on 2012-04-17 07:05:00

Extreme readings (green circles) followed by positive divergences in breadth and/trend energy relative to price generate bullish signals.

Gold falls on euro jitters, silver stocks soar

Published on 2012-04-17 07:00:00

Everyone is a trader, but few are good at it.

Small firms avoiding loans, citing slow recovery

Published on 2012-04-16 07:53:00

Repeat of the 1930's. Headline: Small firms avoiding loans, citing slow recovery NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Small firms are faring better, but they aren't seeing enough fortune ahead to justify taking on debt to grow. The slow pace of the economic recovery is to blame, because while consumer demand keeps growing, it just hasn't been strong enough for most firms to rationalize investing in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Rising Consumer Expectations Imply Higher Gold Prices

Published on 2012-04-16 07:48:00

But the measure of consumer expectations rose to 72.5 from 69.8, hitting its highest level since September 2009. Rising expectations has the media giddy about the prospects for future economic growth and the gold crowd huddled together in fear. While perception sets short-term reality, it does NOT control long-term market forces. The sovereign debt crisis, largely believed to be contained to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Invisible Hand Already Has Its Chair

Published on 2012-04-15 20:59:00

Keeping gold below $1800 is a formidable but doable challenge as long as investors don't do the unthinkable by standing for delivery in great numbers. Why would they do that? London taxes physical delivery at 20%. The COMEX expects all contracts, even those under duress, could be settled in cash. Yet, despite today's structural assurances history also tells us that nearly all paper trading... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Alabama county could hike rates to pay sewer debt: receiver

Published on 2012-04-12 09:20:00

States lacking the power of the printing press either raise taxes or default. Municipalities trying to stave off poor decision-making during expansion often try to pass tax increases into the teeth of a contraction. That is, until an angry crowd marches to the steps of the capital with pitchforks, drums, and signs suggesting something along the lines of ‘Up Yours!’ Headline: Alabama county... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

Jobless claims cast cloud on labor market

Published on 2012-04-12 09:05:00

The labor market will become increasingly cloudy as the economic cycles kick-in. The Fed despite the pomp and circumstance surrounding it is just another market follower.

The Formula Depicts Sluggish Economic Recovery

Published on 2012-04-12 07:59:00

The shallow, counter trend rally in US Federal Budget as % of GDP (or formula) depicts a sluggish, liquidity-driven economic recovery since 2010. A similar rally occurred from 2004 to 2007. A downside break of the consolidation pattern in 20013-2014 will likely anticipate the next global crisis event. Chart: US Federal Budget (Surplus or Deficit As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average) and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Sky Is Falling Indicator

Published on 2012-04-11 07:05:00

MOVB(E) is a proprietary, bounded momentum indicator adjusted by volatility.

Creative Economic Perspective Elicits Market Responses

Published on 2012-04-11 07:00:00

The invisible hand is very good at using creative economic perspective (misdirection, misinformation, etc) to elicit market responses. Market responses such as covering paper shorts into price weakness in the gold market. The only way to challenge economic perspective is to attack it head on. Could the economic recovery have been considered strong before Friday's employment data? The... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Stocks, Spanish Bonds Drop as Treasuries, Yen Strengthen

Published on 2012-04-10 12:40:00

Who would have predicted falling stocks, rising Treasury prices and Yen?

Path of Least Resistance Is Down

Published on 2012-04-10 10:25:00

A test and close above support (3/08 and 3/13 gaps) on shrinking volume will generate a bullish setup(s). Volume on 3/08 and 3/13 were 117 and 184 million, respectively. Bullish setups and technical divergences will illustrate the transition from distribution to accumulation.

French economy grinds to a halt

Published on 2012-04-10 07:07:00

A combination of austerity, excessive debts, and political indecisiveness have been hampering economic growth in the European Union.

Real Estate Recovery: Are We There Yet?

Published on 2012-04-10 07:00:00

A bottom in housing will likely exceed public and politicians expectations. While potential homeowners may have the desire to buy, lenders stripped of the ability "slice and dice" mortgage cash flows through the miracle of securitization are no longer eager to lend to them (see table). Real estate loans as a percentage of total bank credit which exceeded 42% in 2010 has fallen below 37%... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Meaning of Made In America Has Changed

Published on 2012-04-09 07:05:00

Public budgets have been decimated by today's phantom economic recovery. Public layoffs have intensified as tax revenues decreased and federal stimulus money ran out in 2009. Public sector employment as a percentage of nonfarm payrolls peaked 19.4% in 1975. Since the beginning of the great financial bust in 2000, public sector employment pushed to 17.7% by 2010; A feeble economic recovery... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

World food prices rise further, raising fears of unrest

Published on 2012-04-09 07:00:00

The trend for the CRB foodstuffs is up due to rising demand and aggressive currency devaluation across the globe.

Employment gains slow, jobless rate drops

Published on 2012-04-06 09:08:00

The dollar's sharp bounce and drubbing in precious metals and mining shares precipitated from the interpretation that an improving economy had significantly reduced the probability of quantitative easing (QE3) going forward. After today's disappointing employment data, it's likely that this assumption will be challenged by the markets next week. Economic activity is either rising or falling at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Volume Reveals Difference Between Muscles And Inflated Balloons

Published on 2012-04-05 09:01:00

Volume reveals the difference between muscles and inflated balloons.

"No Additional Stimulus Needed" Is An Illusion

Published on 2012-04-05 08:00:00

World stock markets fell Thursday after a weak Spanish bond auction inflamed concerns about the European debt crisis and hopes faded for more help for the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve. How long can the Fed play the "no additional stimulus needed" card for the US when unlike any point in history the world's financial system is so highly interconnected? The Fed is already indirectly... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Third Hook Drops Like A Hammer On Gold

Published on 2012-04-04 14:23:00

Assuming no outflows (unlikely after today) and closing GLD price around 157.5, the ETF's total asset count or third "hook" drops like a hammer on already fragile confidence. This action certainly matches 2008's panic selling setup and is not unexpected after a strong C-wave advance.

Panic Selling Engulfing Gold Shares

Published on 2012-04-04 13:34:00

Chip: [being spanked as part of Omega's initiation] Thank you, sir! May I have another?, Animal House (1978)

Follow The Trends, Ignore the Noise

Published on 2012-04-04 07:12:00

The US, heavily debt laden herself, has become the driver of global economic growth while European economies circle the drain both individually and collectively? Yeah right! Meanwhile, gold and silver are pounded as the US dollar index test short-term technical support (charts 1 and 2). 1/25 swing low has been challenged hard several times. The sharp decline in volume during yesterday's... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

When Will The Sheeple Learn?

Published on 2012-04-04 07:00:00

Any investor that adjusting long-term investment strategy based on daily noise will find his pocket picked by the invisible hand.

The next leg of gold’s bull run

Published on 2012-04-03 09:55:00

An individual, group, or country (hint China) not seeking the label of dumb as a post is highly unlikely to announce their intentions to buy gold.

The new American household: 3 generations, 1 roof

Published on 2012-04-03 09:40:00

The definition of normal will change as Americans' standard of living continues to deteriorate. Headline: The new American household: 3 generations, 1 roof NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- As the economy continues to take a toll on consumers' finances, a growing number of people are discovering that becoming roommates with mom and dad, or a 20- or 30-something son or daughter, helps to ease some of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

A Bad Economy With Rising Equities

Published on 2012-04-03 07:00:00

A sharp downward trend in gold adjusted equities prices reflects Faber's description of a bad economy with rising equities. Chart 1: Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) AND DJTA to Gold Ratio (DJTAGOLDR) Headline: 'Massive Wealth Destruction' Is About to Hit Investors: Faber "I think that people should own some gold and I think that people should own some equities, because... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

More U.S. employers tie health insurance to medical tests

Published on 2012-04-02 10:18:00

The lawyers will have a field day with the inevitable invasion of privacy and discrimination lawsuits. Americans are not ready for this kind of health scrutiny. Headline: More U.S. employers tie health insurance to medical tests Once a year, employees of the Swiss Village Retirement Community in Berne, Ind., have a checkup that will help determine how much they pay for health coverage.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Market Will Be Well Positioned For Any Fed Policy Change

Published on 2012-04-01 17:00:00

The curtain of negative headlines hides bullish money flows in the bond and currency market. Yesterday, I suggested that Bill Gross's assertion that the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely hint at a third round of bond purchases, better known as "quantitative easing," at the coming meeting in Jackson Hole finds support in the bond market. The bond market diffusion index (DI), a cumulative measure... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bullish Setup In Bonds Implies Official QE3?

Published on 2012-03-31 11:38:00

The bullish movement of money, i.e. bullish setups in the 30- and 10-year, supports Gross's suggestion that the Fed will hint at QE3 in April's policy meeting. The spike in the bond market diffusion index (DI), a measure of cumulative money flows across the yield curve, suggests something's up. Follow the message of the market and leave the experts to debate their opinions. Chart: US Treasury... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Equity Resistance Becomes Support

Published on 2012-03-30 11:46:00

Resistance has become support says the market to the equity market bears. Chart 1: Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Chart 2: Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold From Weak To Strong Hands

Published on 2012-03-29 12:03:00

I've updated this morning's chart with today's data. Watch those lease spreads contract as price declines and experts pan gold as speculative investment (see video). The shift of control from weak to strong hands is too easy. Chart: Real Gold Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month GOFO) and Gold Price, USD

Economy grew 3% in 4Q 2011, jobless claims still falling

Published on 2012-03-29 08:26:00

The growing gap between consumption and investment represents not only structural deficits but also the importance of consumption to maintain economic growth in the United States. In other words, consumption drives today's growth while investment, the driver of tomorrow's growth, languishes near all time lows. Infinite liquidity might lift all boats, but it won’t do much to close this... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Invisible Hand Casts A Shadow

Published on 2012-03-29 07:00:00

Bearish setups that plague D-wave declines are being unwound within a backdrop of fear. Rising lease spreads, collapsing ETF money flows into the third hook, and a sharp rise in the diffusion index (DI) as price declines illustrate another round of unwinding or what I've come to view as the invisible hand's elusive shadow (see charts 1-4). Do not underestimate it; It's exceptionally skilled at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bernanke says U.S. needs faster growth

Published on 2012-03-27 07:05:00

No argument here. I would add that the U.S. needs faster "real" as opposed to "nominal" growth often quoted in the headlines. The difference between US dollar based and devaluation adjusted total returns, a distinction between real and nominal returns, explains why equities have underperformed gold since 2000. Did Bernanke forget to mention that? Those calling for a switch from gold to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Invisible Hand Accumulating 10-Year Bond

Published on 2012-03-27 07:00:00

The chart below illustrates the transfer of control from weak to strong hands in the 10-year. Chart: US10YR (IEF) and the Commercial (C) Less Nonreportable (NR) Traders COT Futures And Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Store-brand groceries now on premium shelves

Published on 2012-03-26 11:26:00

It wasn't long ago when analysts predicted "trading up" brands, driven largely by leveraged consumption from ever-rising real estate prices, had become the new norm. Then poof, this illusion faded like a mirage in the desert as Lehman Brothers collapsed and money flew out the backdoor from New York to London. Since then, citizens of Western economies have watched their standard of livings being... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bullish Concentration Index Triggers As Jim Proposes $1630 Could Be Reaction Low

Published on 2012-03-24 08:20:00

Less visible but equally important events supporting Jim's thesis that $1630 could be the reaction low: Bullish concentration of money flows in the futures and options markets. Aggressive accumulation, a combination of short covering and long buying, generated a double and triple peak in 2008 and 2011-2012, respectively (see chart 1). In other words, the peaks represent repositioning of paper... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Bobber Will Be Released Soon

Published on 2012-03-23 13:33:00

Fishermen know that a submerged bobber will explode upward to the surface when released. The principle of gold and silver trend control follow similar rules defined by the physics of buoyancy. Watch lease spread narrow as the price of silver drops (see chart). The is but one component of the invisible hand’s grip. Chart: Real Silver Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month SOFO) and London PM... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..]

Chasing Strength In Gold Is Suicide

Published on 2012-03-23 12:44:00

Veteran gold traders always follow the growing pile of body bags filled by the invisible hand’s paper operations. These operations are revealed by following the concentration of money flows. The invisible hand is accumulating “the hook” at the expense black box and retail money again (see chart); Chasing strength which is suicide in gold is easier regardless of how many times this pattern... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bailout worries see Spanish bond yields rise

Published on 2012-03-23 07:00:00

Does anyone else recognize the perpetual (bailout) cycle here? The solution is called infinite liquidity through debt issuance and printing currency. Liquidity is lifting all boats - stocks, bonds, precious metals, and commodities. Just like it has down throughout history. Headline: Bailout worries see Spanish bond yields rise MADRID (AP) -- Spain's borrowing rates continue to rise as... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Crusher Is Flexing His Paper Muscles

Published on 2012-03-22 10:51:00

The invisible hand which reminds of the Crusher from Warner Brother's 1950 short, Bunny Hugged has been flexing it's paper muscles recently (see video) because it understands the movement of capital within a devaluation cycle. Liquidity has been driving not only stocks but also precious metals higher. When stocks are primed for another run (see equity comments below), I suspect the invisible... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Iran will attack to defend itself: Khamenei

Published on 2012-03-21 07:00:00

The West has played the SWIFT card, but the facade of its financial system is showing obvious cracks. As the depth of West's financial influence fades ever so slightly, so does its ability to resolve this issue through economic arm twisting. Iran is no pushover unless Russia and China can be motivated to look the other way. The real danger here is action driven by hubris. Headline: Iran will... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold and Miners Will Bottom When Investors See No More Catalysts For Rally

Published on 2012-03-20 10:40:00

Wave analysis suggest time and price are good. The money setup suggests the D-wave decline ended, while invisible hand has been hooking the last few traders off the precious metal train. Perhaps the long awaited money flow "earthquake" will shake the resolve of the few remaining gold and silver investors before the next big advance. Chart: Gold London PM Fixed Hi Eric! Haven't mailed you in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Will Portugal Follow Greece Into Debt Relief?

Published on 2012-03-13 07:05:00

Keep clicking the magic 8-ball until you get As I See It Yes, Without A Doubt, or something similar. Personally, I favor Seek professional help response. If Greece's sovereign or derivative debt fails, all other European debt will be challenged. Once the path of liquidity was chosen for Greece, there's no turning back. Headline: Will Portugal Follow Greece Into Debt Relief? Despite... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Taiwan bank made bonanza from gold purchases

Published on 2012-03-13 07:00:00

They made a bonanza in gold since 2008, but don't plan on reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings to buy more of this risky asset. Yeah right. Do you think the Republic of China which needs the US's support would say anything different? Headline: Taiwan bank made bonanza from gold purchases TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan's central bank governor says the bank has made a bonanza from gold purchases in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Consequences Of Infinite Liquidity

Published on 2012-03-12 09:04:00

The charts below illustrate several points about the evolving sovereign debt crisis. External debt levels and equilibrium price of gold (external debt divided by ounces held United States) continue soar in an increasingly comical and disturbing manner. China is slowly reducing their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Chart 3 (Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors As a %... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

SC Valencia U10 Girls and I Thank You

Published on 2012-03-11 19:16:00

I would like to thank all players, families, friends, and global supports of soccer and Insights that helped purchased the coins for team's donation basket (pictured below) and team (not shown). The unsigned coins were purchased through funds contributed to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be Purchased For My U10 Girls Soccer Team For Every $100 Donated To Insights By March 10th... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Unexpected Money Flows In Gold Money Flows Has My Attention

Published on 2012-03-09 20:24:00

Jim writes, This is why gold today is at a high presently trading at $1715.20. The estimate of under $4 billion as the total notional value of the contracts outstanding is a serious understatement. Go to the BIS report to get a feel for the real size. This will fire speculation against the rest of the Euro debt as few would buy CDS vehicles if they did not work. I still await the word default... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Currency wars: Brazil says 'it's on'

Published on 2012-03-09 13:25:00

And so describes the fiat race to the bottom or competitive devaluation intended to jump start ailing economies crippled by global debt burdens. While competitive devaluations are sold as a necessary evil of global competition, they provide little more than temporary economic fix for the debt junkies. Headline: Currency wars: Brazil says 'it's on' NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Brazil's central bank... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

1-2-3 Bottom In Gold Ahead

Published on 2012-03-09 08:12:00

Looks like the third count of a 1-2-3 bottom in gold. While this setup suggests a major turn in gold ahead, it will likely be ignored by many within the gold community. Fear and disinformation will be removing them from the gold train. Chart: London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

US offered Israel advanced weaponry in exchange for delaying Iran attack: report

Published on 2012-03-09 07:05:00

The price of oil is the best form of market intelligence on the subject. Chart: West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (OIL) AND Oil to Gold Ratio (OILGLDR) Headline: US offered Israel advanced weaponry in exchange for delaying Iran attack: report WASHINGTON -- The US offered to give Israel advanced weaponry -- including bunker-busting bombs and refueling planes -- in exchange for Israel's... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Accumulation In Gold Shares Hidden By Emotional Bias

Published on 2012-03-09 07:00:00

Chart 1: Gold Miners Index (GDX) Chart 2: Junior Gold Miners to Major Gold Miners Ratio Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be Purchased For My U10 Girls Soccer Team For Every $100 Donated To Insights By March 10th (click for details) Thank you for your support, Eric [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Warm Winter May Have Cooked Economic Data - What?

Published on 2012-03-08 14:53:00

I have to admit, I’ve read a lot of bad headline explanations throughout the years. The “warm winter effect”, dominating the influences of infinite liquidity (QE), statistical ‘flexibility’ contained within nearly all government released data, and global capital flows, however, establishes a new threshold for bad. Headline: Warm Winter May Have Cooked Economic Data The economic news has been... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and [..]

Ending QE is Not An Option

Published on 2012-03-08 07:00:00

' The gold story will be told here and take root in Bernanke's statement the business is improving. Improving business conditions, in turn, might lesson the need for QE. This is not true.' Jim Source: jsmineset.com Jim's short technical review discusses how economic misdirection, often described as MOPE on jsmineset.com, allows 'connected interests' to manage (and profit) a market through... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Up Trend Resumption Requires Confirmation

Published on 2012-03-08 07:00:00

The test of previous resistance as support is always important. Smart money, highly disciplined and patient, waits for confirmation that the up trend will continue rather than blindly chasing short-term oversold readings (see chart below). Positive divergences between price and internal trend energy as well as a sharp contraction in volume during the testing process would favor trend... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Complexity Hides Silver's Invisible Hand

Published on 2012-03-07 13:24:00

The invisible hand shoves silver down the elevator shaft in plain sight but remains largely hidden by complexity. Proponents of efficient market hypothesis probably shouldn't click on the chart below. Chart: Real Silver Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month SOFO) and London PM Fixed Silver Price Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

"Too Far, Too Fast" Can't Be Subjective

Published on 2012-03-07 07:05:00

The running correction took a hit in the leg from sniper fire. Today's decline is certain to embolden the "too far, too fast" argument against equities. The dotted red lines represent a mathematically extended trend or the market saying “too far, too fast”. The line was generated on February 2009. How many investors were buying stocks then? When the computer generates another red stick,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Rising Interest Payments Unfolding Like A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

Published on 2012-03-07 07:00:00

Even if we raised taxes to 100% of income and reduced government spending to zero tomorrow, a scenario that would instantaneously organize an angry, pitchfork carrying crowd, it still wouldn’t solve the problem called rising interest rate payments. Friends, this is a slow motion train wreck called rising interest payments will be visited sooner rather than later as capital increasingly rotates... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

‘Dr. Doom’ Sees Iran-Israel Clash, Says Buy Precious Metals

Published on 2012-03-06 13:34:00

Controlling the flow of oil in the Middle East is easier said than done. Putin's high profile return in Russia is not coincidence. "The Americans and the western powers know very well they cannot contain China economically... but one way to contain China is to switch on and switch off the oil tap from the Middle East," he said. "I happen to think the Middle East will go up in flames," he... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Global Shift From Public To Private Assets

Published on 2012-03-06 07:00:00

Capital beginning to recognize something is wrong has been slowly reallocating from bonds to stocks worldwide. Japan is no exception. Reallocation from extremely low yielding Japanese government bonds (JGB) to Japanese equities is underway. The transition will be volatile. Japan Equities (EWJ) And Nikkei Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Nikkei drops on profit-taking, China growth target... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

China Expands Yuan Export Settlement to All Qualified Companies

Published on 2012-03-05 14:43:00

The Chinese are very good at saying one thing to pacify political tensions but also getting what they want in the process. The die of change has been cast. The U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency used to settle international trade will be challenged in the coming years. Headline: China Expands Yuan Export Settlement to All Qualified Companies China expanded a trial of yuan... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Fade Don't Follow Consumer Expectations

Published on 2012-03-05 07:00:00

Consumer expectations (CE), similar to that of 2007 and 2004, have surged into a zone of previous highs. This month's unexpected gain will likely setup another gold rally once optimism fades and policy makers respond with more liquidity. It’s better to fade than follow consumer expectations during an escalating debt crisis. Chart: University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (CE) and Gold: A... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..]

Follow The Money, Ignore The Headlines

Published on 2012-03-02 10:49:00

My high school debate team response to this headline would have been “bull sh*t, thank you for your time.” My glib yet concise response suggests two things. First, I was never on the high school debate team. Second, simple observations rarely define the complex nature of capital flows in the real world. Liquidity is pushing up the price of movable assets. This includes stocks, gold, silver,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

A Soft Babbly Brook of Liquidity Is Really The Colorado River

Published on 2012-03-02 07:00:00

Jim is right. Liquidity is driving the stock market higher. Spin citing the lack of visible inflation describes the force of this liquidity as a soft, babbling brook. Reality, however, is far different than perception. The force behind the trends in movable assets (stocks, gold, silver, etc.) compares to that of the Colorado River a few months after the first winter’s melt. Anyone that’s... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Greece Default SWAPS Don’t Have to Pay: ISDA

Published on 2012-03-01 10:58:00

Headline: Greece Default SWAPS Don’t Have to Pay: ISDA Default insurance on Greek debt won’t be paid out, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said after it was asked to rule whether part of the nation’s $170 billion bailout was a credit event. The group said the European Central Bank’s exchange of Greek bonds for new securities exempt from losses being imposed on private... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Window Dressing Won't Change The View

Published on 2012-03-01 07:00:00

Silver closed the 9/22 gap on a massive surge in volume (see chart 1). This surge in volume suggests that this resistance zone despite yesterday's resurgence of doubt and fear; major support and resistance zones tend to fail in threes. For example, trading heuristics such as three drives to a top and three taps and out describe this tendency. Silver must be watched closely. It's highly... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Paper Ambushes Create Elevator Shaft Declines

Published on 2012-03-01 07:00:00

As John Embry writes, "Central planners can’t announce they are going to have constant and massive QE or everything would go to the moon. So the idea is floated around that QE3 is off the table.” Orchestrated paper attacks on the price of gold and silver tend to be most effective during tentative A-and late C-waves advances. The sharply contracting negative lease spreads by mid February hinted... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

Jump the Creek for Silver

Published on 2012-02-29 07:36:00

I agree with Jim, silver more a game than monetary solution, but it's still one heck of a game. Paper silver keeps chewing through resistance (swing highs) on increasing volume. The absorption of supply, i.e. the breach of resistance on increasing volume, illustrates what Richard Wyckoff described as a technical sign of strength (SOS). The 9/22/11 gap from 36.22 to 38.34 represents one of the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Collapse of Another Virtuous Cycle Will Burn Investors Again

Published on 2012-02-29 07:00:00

The gold to silver ratio (GSR) represents an excellent measure of liquidity (QE) within the financial system. A rising GSR trend occurs when gold outperforms silver. This setup implies a scramble for liquidity or safety during uncertainty. A falling GSR occurs when silver outperforms gold. This setup suggests a growing appetite for risk and reluctance to hold cash. The counter trend rally of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

JPMorgan Clients With Under $100K Unprofitable

Published on 2012-02-28 14:48:00

Takes guts to bite the hand that feeds you. Headline: JPMorgan Clients With Under $100K Unprofitable JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the largest U.S. bank by assets, said about 70 percent of customers with less than $100,000 in deposits and investments will be unprofitable following regulations that cap lenders’ fees. “I’m trying to give you a proxy for what the banking industry has to look... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

California gas prices jump 26 cents in a week

Published on 2012-02-28 14:18:00

Rising gas prices caused by middle east unrest and not, repeat not, infinite liquidity stands ready to derail this fragile economic recovery, again. No need to worry, the government's strategic reserves will release just enough supply to save the day just before the fall elections. Déjà vu anyone? Headline: California gas prices jump 26 cents in a week For the sixth week in a row, gasoline... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Discipline or Emotion - Vision or Blindness?

Published on 2012-02-28 10:50:00

Emotions blind us from the obvious and force us to act hastily well after the fact. Watch for breakout on a sign of strength in grains. iPath Grains ETN (JJG): Spot Commodity Prices: CRB Spot Index (1947 - Present); 16-Raw Industrial Spot Price (1935-1947); Great Britain Wholesale Price of All Commodities (1885-1935) and Trend Z Scores Special Donation To Insights Contribute to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Concentration of Capital Leads Change

Published on 2012-02-28 07:00:00

Trends are often pushed to extremes within the confines of cycles. These extremes are motivated by greed and fear. Greed buys until the sellers have been exhausted. Fear sells until no buyers remain. After 1914, capital fled outward from London until the trends based on greed became concentrated by late 1928. Capital concentrated in the 30 Dow Industrials over the S&P 500 (chart 1), and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Merkel Wins Greek Aid Vote After Damage Warning

Published on 2012-02-27 14:15:00

Incalculable damage for whom? The Greek people whom have already had their sovereignty and control of their gold reserves challenged? The Federal Reserve and by extension the American taxpayer when the back door loans fail or must be repaid with devalued currency? Headline: Merkel Wins Greek Aid Vote After Damage Warning Chancellor Angela Merkel won a parliamentary vote on Greek aid after... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Confidence Will Turn Infinite into Finite Liquidity

Published on 2012-02-27 07:00:00

The game of kicking the (economic) can down the road without consequences has been assumed for years. The growing gulf between economic perception and reality makes social consequences more visible with each passing day. Jim commentary, When Does Notional Value Become Real Value?, is far more than some hypothetical discussion. Damage to balance sheets is so severe that infinite liquidity,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold And Silver, Easy As A-B-C-D

Published on 2012-02-26 07:00:00

I prefer to analyze the secular up trend in gold and silver by waves. These waves are A (minor up), B (minor down), C (major up), and D (major down). Please review The unexpected usually means pay attention post for further review. These waves are defined by price, time, and leveraged money flows defined by futures & options and Intermarket analysis. Today's guardedly optimistic but really to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Yen hits seven-month low after Bank of Japan measures

Published on 2012-02-25 07:00:00

Japan's crippling debt burden, aging population, expensive labor, and ultra low yields will force capital to flee Yen at some point. The invisible hand has been accumulating the dips since 2007. Cycles suggest that signs of distribution could emerge in 2013 or 2015. Japanese Yen (FXY) and Yen Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Yen hits seven-month low after Bank of Japan measures The Japanese... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

One in four Americans has more debt than savings

Published on 2012-02-24 07:00:00

Pop culture's full embrace of the "live for today and forget about tomorrow" philosophy has raised generations of Americans that no longer understand that living beyond their means not only jeopardizes their future standard of living but also increases their dependency on governmental largess. One can’t help see the devilish irony that a growing number of Americans blame government largess and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Farmland goes for a premium as commodity prices tick up

Published on 2012-02-23 12:39:00

Commodities were king in 2011. The sharp break into 2012 has not only emboldened the top callers but also turned the crowd from greed to fear. Fear within secular up trends often coincide with excellent entry or reentry points. Watch for a technical trigger. Chart: CRB Spot And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change Headline: Farmland goes for a premium as commodity prices tick up In the last five... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Housing market perks up, but prices are still falling

Published on 2012-02-23 11:26:00

Americans largely leveraged to the previous cycle's investment darling breathed a sigh of relief as signs of a rebound begin to emerge in the real estate sector. Only one break or bounce becomes the real turning point. While time, money flows, and credit support a short-term liquidity driven bounce, they don’t support a secular bottom. That won’t come until 2034. Chart 1 and Chart 2... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Another phase in the Greek tragedy - it could lose all its gold!

Published on 2012-02-23 08:04:00

Don’t expect the Greek people to accept even the inference as colony of the E.U. for long. Jim’s March window for an event warrants serious consideration. Headline: Another phase in the Greek tragedy - it could lose all its gold! Today we are watching both Iran and the Sudan use their gold to buy food for their country as they have nowhere else and nothing else to get it with. Under the terms... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..]

Dow Jones hits 13,000: Time to invest?

Published on 2012-02-23 07:00:00

Does anyone remember a similar debate at Dow 10,000? Better yet, does anyone still have one of those Dow 10,000 hats? I realize that the media, i.e. headlines, love to equate rising stock prices with an improving economy, but the two don't always coexist. A stock market can just as easily rise as a result of infinite liquidity driven by currency debasement as it can from improving economic... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

What Does Duffusion Index Mean?

Published on 2012-02-22 12:20:00

Hi Peter, In scientific terms diffusion refers to the spread of particles from an area of high to lower concentration. This distribution of particles is driven by a concentration gradient. The passive transport of molecules across a semi-permeable membrane is called osmosis within biological systems. Simply substitute particles with paper contracts in the phrase “spread of particles” and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Money Flows Defined By Intermarket Analysis

Published on 2012-02-22 07:00:00

The study of relative strength between markets is defined as Intermarket analysis. Intermarket analysis uses relative strength to establish the direction and magnitude of capital flows to better define the economic cycles. Divergences between markets often predict some sort of trend change. For example, when higher highs in equity prices coincide with lower highs in the Chicago Fed National... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

US firm forced to return Spanish shipwreck treasure it discovered worth more than $500m

Published on 2012-02-21 10:27:00

Apparently, the native Indians of North and South America from which gold and silver were originally looted by the Spanish did not hire good enough lawyers. Headline: US firm forced to return Spanish shipwreck treasure it discovered worth more than $500m (but at least the Spanish military is paying for its transit) Despite finding the treasure and spending more than $2million to recover it, a... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gloves About To Come Off In Silver?

Published on 2012-02-21 09:46:00

Accumulation by the "strong hands" during the 2011 D-wave decline was impressive. Silver's diffusion index (DI) reading of 95, second only to 97 recorded during the Great Financial Panic of 2008, reveals the strength of the accumulation (see chart 1). Yet investors appear to have forgotten that silver nearly quintupled from $10 to $40+ once the invisible hand regained control of the trend in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold eWave Projection

Published on 2012-02-21 08:05:00

Hi Eric Here's one you might enjoy. sharelynx.com Regards Nick Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be Purchased For My U10 Girls Soccer Team For Every $100 Donated To Insights By March 10th (click for details) Thank you for your support, Eric [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Eurozone approves new $173B bailout for Greece

Published on 2012-02-21 07:44:00

The Fed quietly loans over $1 trillion to the ECB in December. $1.5 trillion available for lending to European banks by early 2012. European banks through the power of fractional reserved banking will leverage this number to $14 trillion. The European banks borrow these funds at 1% and lend just over 4%. This subsidized money flow, carefully orchestrated to prevent calling it a bailout, is... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Unexpected Usually Means Pay Attention

Published on 2012-02-21 07:00:00

The mean price decline for the D-wave was $1529.50/ounce. The low thus far was $1531. An interesting aspect of this forecast turned out to be time. The mean time forecast was March 6th. The December 29th low came much sooner than expected (see table 1) Table 1: D-wave Analysis This unexpected outcome suggests either further downside to come or the forces driving gold higher have... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Computers Programmed To Be Smart Do Dumb Things

Published on 2012-02-20 08:42:00

Hi Jerome, That chart was pulled from the commentary Investors 'Overly Bullish' On Nasdaq 100 Is Not Always A Harbinger Of Sharp Declines. I could very well substituted a few words to make it read Investors 'Overly Bearish' On Oil Is Not Always A Harbinger of Sharp Declines. The discussion was intended to suggest that computers programmed to be smart often do dumb things. Statistically... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Early Stage Mark-Up Phase For Copper

Published on 2012-02-20 07:00:00

While some rush to classify today's negative divergence of copper (Dr. Copper) and stock prices as a troubling omen for the real economy, they likely missed the money flow setup in copper that triggered yet another mark-up phase in early 2012. Chart 1 reveals the early stages of this phase. Chart 1: Copper (JJC) And Copper Diffusion Index (DI) Chart 2 illustrates the money flow cross between... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Tell A Lie Big Enough, Loud Enough And Long Enough And The Sheeple Will Believe

Published on 2012-02-20 07:00:00

You will get a rude awakening come June this year as international dollar utilization sunders badly, setting a major unexpected down trend for the dollar and gold’s greatest ever ascent. A significant challenge to dollar hegemony could be felt as early as March 2012. For those scoring at home (an old American idiom used to describe fans numerically tracking the progress of the baseball game at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Insight: Japan slowly wakes up to doomsday debt risk

Published on 2012-02-19 07:00:00

Japan should have awoke to their doomsday debt risk when the Yen (FXY ETF) traded above 97 in 2008. The sequence of failure will be as follows: (1) Europe, (2) Japan, and finally (3) the United States. Once the United States becomes the last man standing, it's will receive full attention from the wolf pack (global capital). Cycle dates and statistically significant short-side concentration... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Interpretations From Technical & Intermarket Analysis Depends On Perspective

Published on 2012-02-18 07:05:00

The Dow Theory, as most interpretations in technical and intermarket analysis, depends on your perspective. While the transports have failed to lead and/or confirm higher highs in the Dow Industrials over the short-term, discriminating trader knows they’ve been leading the Industrials for years. For instance, the Dow Transports established new highs in 2011, while the Dow Industrials did not. ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Obama wants cheaper pennies and nickels

Published on 2012-02-18 07:00:00

As long as the standing Administration supports a stronger - meaning weaker dollar, those pesky little pennies and nickels will only get more expensive to produce. Eventually, Gresham’s law will release its citizen from shackles of expensive coins and paper notes to the freedom of the great cashless society provided by credit. After that, visionary citizens and fund managers will be allowed to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

TIC: Net Foreign LT Secs Purchases $1.6B In Dec

Published on 2012-02-17 07:00:00

As China steadily decreased its long-term US Treasury holdings, Japan and United Kingdom have increased them. The chart below illustrates the interconnectedness of the three major holders. Chart: Major Foreigner Holders of US Treasury Securities: The Three Horsemen Headline: TIC: Net Foreign LT Secs Purchases $1.6B In Dec Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--China sold U.S.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Standard of Livings Continue To Decline

Published on 2012-02-17 07:00:00

The proof of standard of livings resides in plain sight, yet few Americans recognize it. Was Green Day’s song America Idiot (2004) onto something? It would appear so on the surface. The response of denial, however, is a typical behavior when an individual or group is confronted with a problem they believe is insurmountable. American Idiot: Headline: Social Security Is Failing Even Faster... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bernanke: Weak housing has hurt consumer spending

Published on 2012-02-16 08:06:00

Bernanke suggests that the largely consumption-driven US economy needs rising home prices to support it. Cheap and easy credit, in turn, is needed to support rising home prices. While credit is cheap, table below suggests that it’s not easy. Real estate loans have become increasingly restrictive since the financial crisis in 2008. Real estate loans as a percentage of total bank credit has... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Central Banks Trying To Keep Gold From Rising Violently

Published on 2012-02-16 07:00:00

Listen to Jim’s interview. The invisible hand has been working hard to keep a lid on gold and silver since April 2011. The hand is far more influential when it follows the direction of the cycles. For example, heavy paper selling works best during the D- and B-wave declines. The recent cycle transition from D-wave decline to A-wave advance means the invisible hand’s ability to control the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

How Do I Learn How To Follow The Money?

Published on 2012-02-15 08:48:00

Hi Craig, For now I rely on the sharing model for reward. Statistical analysis often looks fancy and impressive, but it’s merely a tool that focuses the message of the market. Statistical understanding without the ability to interpret the messages contained in global capital flows is like saying geologist needs only side-scanning radar to find gold deposits. It gives the impression that finding... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..]

Be Less Bullish Toward Stocks Now?

Published on 2012-02-15 07:00:00

The headlines have been filled with experts urging caution towards stocks recently. Record bullish sentiment, we've come too far too fast, and deteriorating economic fundamentals in the US are but a few of the reasons cited as reasons to be increasingly cautious towards stocks. Of course, this is the point where I discredit the experts by saying they're all wrong. But I won't. I will say,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Australian Dollar

Published on 2012-02-14 11:18:00

Mick has asked about my thoughts on the Australian Dollar "Aussie dollar". I have none. The message from the market, ignoring emotional interpretation from short-term volatility, is higher. 1-2 accumulations, common in both the Aussie and Loonie (Canadian Dollar), often coincide with D-waves in gold. Australian Dollar (FXA) And Australian Dollar Diffusion Index (DI) Special Donation To... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Standard of Livings Are Declining Across Most of the Western World

Published on 2012-02-14 09:22:00

Chart Notes:Gold-adjusted retail sales, or constant currency sales, have contracted year-over-year (YOY) since 2000. 2005 and 2007 saw brief periods of constant currency YOY gains, but they didn't last long. Constant currency retail sales hasn't been able surpass a -10% contraction since 2008. This contraction rates sits like an anvil over spending. Ever wonder why that trip to brick and mortar... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Are the Gold Shares Following Gold?

Published on 2012-02-14 08:59:00

The short-term emotional response says, hell no. Mathematic-based discipline says, yes. The correlation between gold and the gold stocks has been 0.86 since 2000*. This is a strong correlation. Does this suggest gold and the gold stocks are comparable investments? Yes and no. While gold stocks are tightly correlated with gold, their unique business risks alter their reward profile relative to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Buy Gold Stock Weakness, Says The Market

Published on 2012-02-13 13:59:00

Ephrem, The market’s message after a massive, multi-decade breakout is buy weakness. Unfortunately, human behavior is hardwired for selling rather than buying fear. This means gold shares train, fueled by rising gold prices, will shed a lot of passengers along the way. S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)* The gold shares mania phase, characterized by rising dividends and higher... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Crisis We Should Be Panicking About: Bacon Prices

Published on 2011-07-05 09:38:00

Pork bellies and hogs are topic for discussion by Dan, but don't totally laugh this one off. The global debt crisis has sparked riots in Greece and elsewhere in Europe, but while you were watching the mayhem on TV, you might not have noticed that th

Capitulation Zone Explained In Silver

Published on 2011-07-05 07:05:00

Mark, Like most things, you're reading my 'handwritten' computer notes. The capitulation zone can be best characterized as the point where those beating the grass (strong hands) are finding it difficult to locate snakes (weak hands) to scare. The

Happy Independence Day

Published on 2011-07-04 06:00:00

The second day of July, 1776, will be the most memorable epoch in the history of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary festival. It ought to be commemorated as the day of deliveranc

Lumber Ready To Lay Some Wood On The Bears?

Published on 2011-07-02 10:49:00

Is lumber ready to lay some wood on the bears? The bullish setup contained within an inverse head and shoulders, a classic inflection pattern, warrants attention from both sides of the trade. Perhaps it’s time to expedite plans for that extra bar

The Silver Setup Needs A New Descriptive Catch Phrase

Published on 2011-07-01 18:03:00

I've used phrase such as watch out and shock and awe to describe the setup in silver. After today's numbers, I add holy sh*t, batman to the hat of descriptive catch phrases. Certain interests are professionally buying this decline as the public slumb

Oil Building Cause For Another Run

Published on 2011-07-01 17:39:00

The bullish setup in oil is nearing completion as it builds cause for another run. It will happen with or without a hurricane-induced supply disruption. But hey, it’s easier to blame the hurricane whenever possible. CrudeOil (WTI) and the Commer

Anyone Watching Copper?

Published on 2011-07-01 14:17:00

The media finally realized this? The bullish setup in copper is nearly a month old. Copper Supply Squeeze Coming, Prices to Jump: Analyst Copper prices fell on Friday after data from China showed factory activity slowed more than expected in the wo

Variations On A Theme Coming To The US

Published on 2011-07-01 09:59:00

Selective vision sees differences when similarities exist. Like Greece, many states within the US union will succumb to consequences of the sovereign debt crisis. Call it an economic and social analog to Hayden’s Variation On A Theme. Headline: Br

Evolution of the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Published on 2011-07-01 06:25:00

The following headlines provide a classic example of practical economics in action not only in Greece but also many states within the United States. They reveal an evolving story of survival and protection against present and future actions of centra

Lead, follow, or get out of the way

Published on 2011-06-30 09:11:00

Lead, follow, or get out of the way, Thomas Paine. This setup was flagged by the computers this morning. Bears or bulls wearing short pants would be wise to recognize the bullish divergence in AD(E). AD(E), a measure of market participation and simi

Unrealistic Projections & Practical Economics

Published on 2011-06-30 08:41:00

Layoffs and concessions of all sorts translate into lower standard of livings for many states and illustrate practical economic forces at work. Many states have adopted optimistic revenue projections to narrow future budget shortfalls. How realisti

Muni Bonds Reflect States' Vicious Cycle

Published on 2011-06-30 07:19:00

Spending cuts and optimistic revenue projections may narrow the budget gaps on paper, but practical economics inevitably alters the best laid plans. The public sector is still the largest employer across America. Public sector layoffs will continue a

Watch Out For Turnip Truck Analysis

Published on 2011-06-29 15:16:00

The strategic oil supply release was similar to filling a couple of swimming pools from the Colorado River then creating a press release to telling everyone to watch for a change in the water. Turnip truck analysis usually hides very specific intent

Liquidity Is Driving Stocks Higher

Published on 2011-06-29 14:55:00

Headlines provide the lame explanations for a public looking for easy answers. Capital knows that liquidity (currency devaluation) is driving this game. The chart below illustrates this point. Devaluation Steps: S&P 500 Total Market Return and In

Real Estate Remains Weak

Published on 2011-06-29 12:53:00

A rise in signed contracts to buy homes today could precede more of them broken in the future. Be wary of easy headline inferences. The bounce in real home prices since 2009 remains nothing more than counter trend rally within a secular downtrend th

Mailbox

Published on 2011-06-29 11:33:00

Stephen, The market is not concerned with the actions of day traders. Day to day movements represents nothing more than non-actionable trend “noise”. The concentration of capital, i.e. bullish or bearish setups by specific players, is useful i

Published on 2011-06-29 07:15:00

Perceptions about gold will come full circle in time, but not after a significant political, social, and market fight. Market forces are winning the battle, but we have yet to see significant change in perceptions. The great perceptions shift will

BofA settles on legacy Countrywide mortgage repurchase

Published on 2011-06-29 06:27:00

The same reason why lawyers never ask a question they don't know the answer. They all settle on the Court Steps. Ever asked yourself WHY? Jim Bank of America Corp settled nearly all of the claims related to the legacy Countrywide-issued first-lie

Market Forces Set Interest Rates

Published on 2011-06-28 13:52:00

Those that believe central planners control short-term rates have not studied history. The printing press’s on/off switch and confidence game (MOPE) reflects the extent of their controlling reach. The yellow box roughly approximates when percepti

US Money Markets--Another Channel of Contagion

Published on 2011-06-28 13:11:00

Jim offers an important heads up. Please note. Money market funds are experiencing increased withdrawals. This could be dangerous. Jim Headline: US Money Markets--Another Channel of Contagion New earlier this month that Moody's was placing 3 F

Pimco sees rising inflation for 3 - 5 years

Published on 2011-06-28 07:02:00

This is why the bearish setup in bonds is so interesting today. Capital discounts and anticipates the future. Persistent bearish concentration in 2011 suggests not only rising interest rates but also inflation as early as 2012. Headline: Pimco sees

Gold Is A Game of Control

Published on 2011-06-27 22:30:00

Control is all about managing the paper market. This is done through futures and options markets. The trend is controlled by managing various aspects supply and demand as measured by open interest. Statistically significant changes in open interest,

Slow and Steady Outflows In Natural Gas

Published on 2011-06-27 10:16:00

The only opinion I follow is the message of the market. Any sustainable or tradable bottom in natural gas (NG) is likely to be preceded by a bullish concentration of funds. Natural gas’s diffusion index, a measure of concentration, reveals outflows

U.S. Dollar Outflows Continue

Published on 2011-06-27 07:37:00

Previous third wave countertrend rallies provide a template for the future. Strong outflows during these rallies reflect a rebalancing of control while the headlines distract. A reading below 20% would signal a strong bearish setup and would represe

Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2

Published on 2011-06-27 07:26:00

QE(n) needs not be officially announced. The Federal Reserve will remain the biggest buyer of Treasuries, even after the second round of quantitative easing ends this week, as the central bank uses its $2.86 trillion balance sheet to keep interest r

Bearish Setup Without Technical Trigger In Bonds

Published on 2011-06-26 10:07:00

Outflows in the bond market reflect a ticking time bomb to the bullish argument. Patience and discipline wait for a technical trigger that will detonate this bomb. The market knows that supply will continue to hit the market with or without QE3. QE p

Coffee Drinkers Watch Out

Published on 2011-06-26 09:46:00

Coffee’s DI has produced a DI reading of 83 as of June 21st. This is a strong bullish setup. Diffusion readings above 80 tend to represent statistically concentrated accumulation. The last time coffee generated such a reading was late 2008. The DI

There Still Chips On Table In The Silver Game

Published on 2011-06-25 08:06:00

The invisible hand of control is certainly not restricted to the oil market. Notice invisible hand pushes the silver market at tops and bottoms. For example, silver rallies, illustrated by green arrows, tend to be associated with contractions in ne

Releasing Snake Oil From The Strategic Stockpile

Published on 2011-06-24 20:56:00

Unbelievable, huh? Headline hype has been quick to embrace the benefits of lower gas prices on travel and household budgets. Meanwhile, objective capital ignores the hype and quietly buys the decline. Eric Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion In

Extreme Pessimism In Gold Stocks

Published on 2011-06-24 10:34:00

Bartek, Markets tend breathe between the extremes within cycles. A normalized gold stocks to gold ratio establishes the extremes. As I have written many times before, the invisible hand will “beat the grass to startle the snakes.” In other words

Speculation Is Not Driving Commodities Higher

Published on 2011-06-24 08:07:00

The secular trend breathes as a result of speculation. Speculation does not set the direction of the trend. Fundamentals, monetary policies, and cycles determine its direction, magnitude and duration. Spot Commodity Prices: CRB Spot Index (1947 -

Well-Coordinated Plans May Seem Like Acts Of Desperation

Published on 2011-06-24 06:37:00

Releasing 30 million barrels, less than 5% of the U.S. total strategic reserves, was not an act of desperation. Actions without a plan suggest desperation. This action was designed to create technical selling by weak hands at key support. That it

The Quiet Setup In Gold

Published on 2011-06-23 14:05:00

Money moving against the headlines because it knows that Jim is right. Be prepared for gold to take out $1650 on the upside as magnets at $12,544 come into play. Be prepared for the Inflationary Depression of all time. The chart below illustrates t

It's All About Confidence

Published on 2011-06-23 13:16:00

The liquidity driven economic recovery is all about confidence. The more confidence slips, the greater the need for stimulus and quantitative easing. What the public fails to realize is that the depression would have started long ago without the va

Follow the Primary and Long-Term Trend/Cycles

Published on 2011-06-23 10:30:00

The natural ebb and flow of the equity market as illustrated by the primary and long-term trend. Extreme readings on the downside tend to be following by extreme readings to the upside. Of course, there’s always the possibility that "it's different

Bullish Inflows Support Planned Intervention In Oil

Published on 2011-06-23 10:12:00

Today’s action in the oil market represents a classic example of “beat the grass to startle the snakes.” I often use this phrase to describe the rearranging control of the trend into the right hands. As the guest commenter suggests in the vide

Growing Social Discontent Abroad

Published on 2011-06-23 08:14:00

Organized social discontent in Greece offers a preview of things to come in various states across America. Headline: Greek unions call general strike for June 28, 29 Greece's largest labor union has called a 48-hour general strike for June 28 and 2

PIMCO'S Gross says Fed to unveil QE3 at Jackson Hole

Published on 2011-06-22 16:09:00

It’s denoted here as QE(n) donates for a reason. QE must continue or the social and economic consequences of a growing debt implosion will intensify into 2012 Presidential election – not likely. Bill Gross on Wednesday said the Federal Reserve

Silver-Coin Sales Boom at Perth’s Mint as Mums and Dads Desert Paper Money

Published on 2011-06-22 14:22:00

Silver-coin sales from Australia’s Perth Mint, which was founded in 1899 and processes all of the country’s bullion, have surged to a record as buyers seek to protect their wealth with the metal known as poor man’s gold. The mint sold 10.7 mil

Bernank-O-Meter During Press Conference, Seriously?

Published on 2011-06-22 13:16:00

The Bernank-O-Meter, a measure of economist agreement or disagreement of Bernanke's comments introduced by F-TV, serves what purpose? Could this be an SNL skit, or am I missing something? Funny stuff, either way. Bernanke Holds Press Conference

Americans Live In The Real World Not Defined By Statistics

Published on 2011-06-22 09:15:00

The jobs situation is not quite comparable to the Great Depression yet, but it will draw comparisons in time - likely well after the fact. Civilian Unemployment Rate The unadjusted and historical comparable unemployment rate exceeds 20% today. He

There More Than One Warning Here

Published on 2011-06-22 06:16:00

What happens to the various markets when investors begin to realize that Portugal, Spain, Italy, California, New Jersey, New York, Illinois, and others with similar debt problems do not have currency devaluation as solution to the problem? As during

Increased Public Participation In Gold Is Inevitable

Published on 2011-06-21 15:21:00

eBay's Bullion Center Beta Another step in the transition from what the unknown barbaric commodity (phase 1) to professional accumulation (phase 2) to ultimately full blown public mania (phase 3). Increased public exposure will eventually tilt the s

Russia to Reduce U.S. Debt Holdings

Published on 2011-06-21 13:40:00

Before the shock and awe comes trail of footprints of money moving with its feet that becomes obvious in retrospect. Headline: Russia to Reduce U.S. Debt Holdings A top Russian economic official says his country is likely to continue decreasing th

Financial Market Two-Step Crossover

Published on 2011-06-21 09:50:00

UTEP Two Step Basketball fans are likely well-aware of Tim Hardaway's innovative UTEP two-step. There's also an innovative two-setup in the capital markets. The QE(n) driven, down currency, up equities has been driving equities since 2000. The mos

Dow 20,000 Is Not Pure Speculative Hype

Published on 2011-06-21 08:32:00

Speculative hype has little to do with stock prices since 2000. The large cap stock to gold ratio illustrates how currency devaluation, i.e. printing money through quantitative easing QE(n), has been driving stocks higher for more than a decade. I

The Emerging New Monetarism: Gold Convertibility To Save The Euro

Published on 2011-06-21 08:20:00

Gold convertibility would save not only the Euro but all paper currencies. This includes the U.S. dollar. Soon the focus will turn to the legitimacy of stated gold reserves. Professor Robert Mundell urges gold convertibility for the euro, the curren

PBOC issues more commemorative coins to meet soaring demands

Published on 2011-06-21 07:10:00

Many investors in the US still fail recognize soaring demand for precious metals from the BRIC nations. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, announced on Monday that it will issue more gold and silver commemorative coins featuring th

Gold bugs confident on gold — but stocks?

Published on 2011-06-20 14:29:00

Statistically speaking, gold stocks remain strongly correlated with gold. All markets breathe (ebb and flow). Unfortunately, emotions often distort perceptions. Investors’ reactions to short-term ebbs (under performance) can distort the reality of

Follow the Frogs & Small Cap Stocks For Health

Published on 2011-06-20 12:30:00

As amphibian populations tend to be a good indication of ecosystem health, so is the direction of small cap stocks in an inflationary trend. An ecosystem in trouble tends to be foreshadowed by crashing frog populations. An inflationary trend in troub

Is the U.S. like Greece?

Published on 2011-06-19 22:13:00

Like, yes, but comparable No. Greece as part of the European Union is quite similar to any over-leveraged state within the US Union. After the American Revolution, US created a single currency, but left states to handle their own debts and economic

Bullish Inflows As Oil Declines

Published on 2011-06-19 06:52:00

The headlines provide convenient explanations for markets that were setup by leverage money flows weeks/months in advance. The bearish setup or distribution action for both oil and euro came in April 2011. The headlines were focusing on some other fl

Is The COMEX Manipulating Gold Margins To Mask Silver Supply Deficits?

Published on 2011-06-18 11:40:00

The manipulation of margin requirements is a classic example of short-term cause and effect. Short-term trading 'noise' can never be confused with manipulation, but the old trading axiom suggests no coincidences in this business. The downward adjustm

Watching Retail Money In Silver

Published on 2011-06-18 08:10:00

Retail money remains stubbornly neutral for silver. While the red arrow illustrates liquidation, it has yet to reflect statistical concentration. If another panic decline materializes, it will likely be fueled by their long liquidation. The trend man

Racine Unified may sue over state cuts to school funding

Published on 2011-06-17 14:24:00

This highly charged, still largely theoretical partisan debate will turn into nonpartisan "what do we do now" panic as the consequences of turning off the liquidity spigot begin to emerge between 2012 and 2013. Tread carefully gentleman, the road to

Buy When There's Blood In The Streets

Published on 2011-06-17 13:58:00

Many investors, some within the community, have sold their gold shares for the safety of gold into the recent decline. Fear and doubt are running wild. A similar mathematical comparison would be 2008. Investors exchanging their gold for gold stock

Bill Gross Smells End Game Approaching

Published on 2011-06-17 11:14:00

The US has been engaging in stealth default for years. For example, gold was removed from circulation and made illegal for citizens to own in 1934. Silver was removed from circulation in 1964. Also, the international gold window was closed in 1971. T

Public sector retirement age 'will rise to 66'

Published on 2011-06-17 10:45:00

Public sector retirement age will rise to 66, so will the broken promises in the coming years. Alter the terms of the contract rather than reduce spending. Unfunded liabilities or government promises soared and eventually broke the Roman Empire. H

The Muddle Through Strategy Will Fail

Published on 2011-06-17 09:26:00

Why what for the IMF’s interpretation when the markets have been signaling this for months? Currency induced cost push inflation spikes are best illustrated in the chart below. Notice the pattern of increasing spikes from 1963 to 1980 in the PP to

Small Cap Stocks Continue To Lead

Published on 2011-06-17 08:13:00

Small cap stock reflect an economic backdrop dominated by currency devaluation. Superior returns long-term returns has always been about intentification of secular trends. Small Cap Total Return Index (SCSTRI) AND SCSTRI to Gold Ratio Chart: faceboo

Retail Sales Have Rolled Over

Published on 2011-06-17 08:02:00

US economic growth is largely consumption driven. The charts below clearly illustrate that consumption peaked in late 2010 to early 2011. Falling consumption means slowing economic growth, and slowing economic growth means lower federal receipts whil

‘Tidal Wave’ of Gold Demand Coming From China, India as Economies Expand

Published on 2011-06-17 06:56:00

The fundamentals, driven by excessive debt and currency devaluation, are driving gold higher. The eastern economies, recognizing this trend and transition of power, continue to invest according. Western economies, particularly their citizens, remai

Thin Red Line Between Order and Chaos

Published on 2011-06-16 13:47:00

Jim's comments are important. Global economic growth has been supported by QE1, QE2 and other liquidity injection programs. The global economy, highly leveraged, would have unwound with frightening speed without this liquidity. A similar unwinding

Soon Fear Will Turn Into Greed In Copper Market

Published on 2011-06-16 07:37:00

Follow the money! It has been repositioned into weakness. Soon the sellers of weakness will become chasers of strength. Do you understand the game yet? Copper (JJC) And Copper Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Copper Stockpiles Dropping 50% in China

Dive in Silver Price a “Setup,” Says Sprott

Published on 2011-06-16 07:33:00

You bet it's a setup. Silver's money flow footprint illustrates management of the trend. Headline: Dive in Silver Price a “Setup,” Says Sprott Eric Sprott is CEO of Sprott Asset Management and a long-time proponent of owning both gold and silve

You’re Out of Your Mind If You Sell Gold Assets Now, Jim Sinclair

Published on 2011-06-16 06:49:00

Jim is right, Paper shufflers have been beating the grass the startle the snakes (weak hands) because investors, reluctant to do their own homework, have a tendency to act based on emotions rather than intellectual discipline. While intellectual dis

Secular Bulls End With The Defiance of Logic

Published on 2011-06-15 16:14:00

Hello Ephrem, The commodity bull is not over by a long shot. Secular bulls do not end quietly. They end in buying frenzies that defy logic. Gold leads the currency devaluation parade and will continue to lead commodities since the secular trend beg

Newsflash - Oil Falls Sharply

Published on 2011-06-15 15:16:00

A study of the movement of money through concentration can anticipate the context of the headlines week/months in advance. Headlines such as “Unrest in Greece provides strength to the dollar” might as well have been worded “Aliens landing at th

Dollar's Short-Term Bounce Weakening?

Published on 2011-06-15 11:59:00

Anyone that has followed Jim Rogers knows that he tends to preface his comments by saying he's not a very good trader of short-term trends. Listen, I know trading, he's pretty good. Rogers, like most good traders, tends to omit when the short-term tr

Midday Comments on the Euro

Published on 2011-06-15 11:33:00

Renewed Greece fears/focus my asterisk! Today's decline in the Euro was setup well in advance of the headline news. This is a classic example of the tail wagging the dog. Coincidentally, hardly so, the strong hands are using this opportunity relie

Secular Bulls Do Not End Quietly

Published on 2011-06-15 09:48:00

Consolidation after a significant advance does not translate into a secular inflection point. Anyone convinced the secular bull is over might be interested in certain bridge for sale in New York. Time is as important as price when estimating duration

Austerity For All Except Me

Published on 2011-06-15 08:13:00

People agree that austerity is needed, but with so many people dependent on the programs austerity intends to cut the result is growing rage and distrust. Keen historians have already drawn parallels to today’s headlines and the growing social dis

Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR)

Published on 2011-06-15 07:53:00

Many view liquidity, risk, and silver as dead assets. The gold to silver ratio (GSR), i.e. the message of the market, currently consolidation after a strong downward surge, suggests otherwise. Chart: facebook.com [[ This is a content summary only.

Morning Comments on Bond Market

Published on 2011-06-15 07:00:00

While headline explanations focus on short-term economic noise, they never seem to notice the invisible hand of leverage money flows. Outflows in the bond market as price rises illustrates a continuing bearish setup in bonds. Setups in the bond marke

It's F.U.B.A.R

Published on 2011-06-14 13:56:00

A generation of Americans, long removed from the event, will view America's Great Recession as the Greater Great Depression. The true visionaries will have correctly called F.U.B.A.R long before its mainstream acceptance. Headline: US Housing Crisis

Cash Assets Are Soaring!

Published on 2011-06-14 11:37:00

The message of the market is often hidden in plain sight. Why are cash assets as a percentage of total bank credit soaring at US commercial banks? Today’s surge has surpassed the levels reached after Lehman collapse. Cash Assets 12-Month Change (C

What Happens If It’s Not There?

Published on 2011-06-14 10:56:00

Tread carefully gentleman, once the box has been opened, it cannot be closed. If the gold at Fort Knox (or other US depositories) is not real, then in terms of the evolving financial crisis, to quote an old street saying, we have yet to see the shit

QE2 Ending But More Is Needed

Published on 2011-06-14 06:58:00

Stick your head in the ground if you must, but trend anticipation and market vision cannot be acquired by following the spinsters’ headline rhetoric. The up trend in gold and silver will resume once the weak hands have been relieved of their net lo

Greece Is Not The Only Sideshow

Published on 2011-06-14 06:47:00

State budgets continue to hemorrhage red ink from Minnesota to California. Layoffs and shutdowns are inevitable without further stimulus. Think about what the effect of further public layoffs and furloughs would have on private expenditures (consumpt

More Flying Pigs

Published on 2011-06-13 15:40:00

S&P slashed Greece's credit rating to the lowest in the world today. Bill Gross also stated that US is in even worse financial shape than Greece. Logic dictates that S&P should downgrade the US's credit rating soon, right? Headline: S&P

Vietnam holds live-fire drill amid China tensions

Published on 2011-06-13 13:20:00

South China Sea dipute is but one example of the battle for finite resources across the globe. Vietnam put on a show of military strength in the tense South China Sea on Monday, risking the ire of Beijing in the face of a deepening maritime rift wit

Afternoon Comment on Silver

Published on 2011-06-13 12:10:00

Beat the grass to startle the snakes. How hard is it to scare the weak hands in silver? A little copy and paste from Sunday morning's comments should explain away most of today's price decline in silver, The only hitch in the setup at this point i

Reader Questions

Published on 2011-06-13 08:57:00

Greg, Myron, and friends I certainly understand the intellect quandary provided by the money game. The money game, which at times makes chess look like beer checkers, requires targeted understanding and years of experience to simply prevent one’s

Feel The Market Inhale and Exhale - Breathe

Published on 2011-06-13 06:53:00

The master traders could use their instincts to ‘feel’ the market inhale and exhale. In other words, they could feel the market breathe in its natural rhythm. Today, computers help traders hone this unique instinct for those without the DNA that

Silver Preparing For Another Shock And Awe Move

Published on 2011-06-12 06:56:00

Money flows reflect a bullish setup despite the negative headlines and growing pessimism towards silver. Open interest continues to decline as the weak hands are flushed (see chart below). This action is consistent with paper operations in which th

When Pigs Fly

Published on 2011-06-10 12:43:00

The secular trend retail (consumption) remains down until at least 2016. Personal expenditures (consumption) contribute over 70% of gross domestic product (national income). Any real decline in consumption will slam economic growth as the Presidentia

Can You Spare Me $5 For A Loaf of Bread?

Published on 2011-06-10 06:59:00

What little savings Americans have accumulated within the consumption era are being slowly eroded by the global debt implosion, excessive personal leverage, a general lack of understanding of how interest and compounding works. Household balance she

Japan raises spectre of Fukushima 'melt-through'

Published on 2011-06-09 14:53:00

Melt through into the environment, particularily the water supply, will effect a far greater region than a 50- to 100-mile radius around Fukushima. This will certainly complicate the clean up process and Japan's recovery. For the first time, Japane

Gold $12,500 Is Not A Crazy Number

Published on 2011-06-09 13:02:00

Bear in mine that all markets are interconnected. Stocks and gold move together during periods of aggressive currency devaluation. 2:1 to 1:1 ratio implies a gold target price between $6,500 and $13,000 at Dow 13,000 by late 2013 to early 2014. Do

CME Threatens to Skip Town Over Illinois Tax Hike

Published on 2011-06-09 10:33:00

The Achilles heel of tax and spend policies is that it always exhausts other people's money (OPM) to spend. Capital rarely squares up to fight unsustainable policies, it simply votes with its feet. Headline: CME Threatens to Skip Town Over Illinois

Buying the Dip vs Catching A Falling Knife

Published on 2011-06-09 09:39:00

Past trading masters used the ‘pulse’ of tape and gut instincts read exhaustion and fear. Today’s traders despite access to computers and AI software still look foolish in comparison. There’s a distinction between catching a falling knife an

Jim Rogers One On One

Published on 2011-06-08 22:12:00

if the world economy gets better commodities do well. if it doesn't, they'll going to print more money. it's the wrong thing to do but that's all they know to do in washington and tokyo and a few places. they'll print more money. if they print money,

Background Noise vs Secular Trends

Published on 2011-06-08 16:01:00

Aurelio, The path of least resistance, regardless of QE(n), is down. The invisible hand pushes because it can for now. From a long-term perspective, today’s action registers as background noise within powerful secular trends. Emotions based on

They Push Because They Can

Published on 2011-06-08 12:18:00

How are things looking to you? Hope you are well. Best, Chris The many of the aggressive, junior miner shorts will be removed from the trend on a stretcher. Ego always prevents voluntary exit. MOVB(E), a much better indication of overbought/sold th

Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR), Support Has Become Resistance

Published on 2011-06-07 15:33:00

When time is right, silver will run again. Source (Chart): facebook.com [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Stocks Tend to Bottom When Investors/Traders See Only Fear

Published on 2011-06-07 07:04:00

Investors and traders are turning bearish on stocks and the economy. The markets, however, are beginning to send a bullish message. Market internal analysis suggests the stock market is closer to an intermediate-term bottom than top. Who's listening

The Economic Game Continues

Published on 2011-06-07 06:52:00

Candor periodically squeeks pass the economic spin masters. Even pieces of the truth must be softened. Headline: China official says U.S. could pursue weak dollar policy China should guard against risks from "excessive" holdings of U.S. assets as

China Has Divested 97 Percent of Its Holdings in U.S. Treasury Bills

Published on 2011-06-06 20:26:00

Follow the money and ignore the rest. China has dropped 97 percent of its holdings in U.S. Treasury bills, decreasing its ownership of the short-term U.S. government securities from a peak of $210.4 billion in May 2009 to $5.69 billion in March 2011

The Continuing Debt Implosion Will Force More QE

Published on 2011-06-06 11:46:00

John, The situation is a bit more complicated than experts are willing or capable of recognizing. Personal and professional ties ALWAYS skew interpretations. The message of the market always trumps personal interpretation. QE, either QE1, QE2, QE

State, local governments set to see record job cuts, layoffs

Published on 2011-06-06 06:44:00

The public sector, a huge employer for USA, Inc, continues to shed jobs at an alarming rate. Public sector job destruction is certain to pressure personal consumption which has become a critical and unbalanced component of national income (see chart

Open Interest Reveals Yet Another Layer Within The Footprint of Control

Published on 2011-06-05 09:27:00

Alonzo, Training Day Source: hark.com A sharp increase is paper supply, short positions in excess of deliverable metal, has been used to cap demand surges since 2001. Once a paper operation breaks the short-term trend, the ensuing computer-drive

Concentrated Long Buying In Silver

Published on 2011-06-05 07:44:00

All previous up phases have been preceded by statistically concentrated long buying and/or short liquidation. Silver has been displaying concentrated long buying since late May. A strong bottom or base will form if shorts begin to liquidate en masse

Weak Labor Market Equals More QE(n)

Published on 2011-06-03 10:53:00

The US economy has seen some job creation in excess of labor force expansion (needs), but as the chart below suggests it’s not robust. Also, participation of rate of the birth/death model in job creation is beginning to climb. Smart money will an

Emotions Override Discipline

Published on 2011-06-02 10:16:00

Fear and greed see only the obvious. That is, fear sees fear, and greed sees greed. Discipline already a weak component of trading/investing strategy tends to disappear with the emergence of emotions. The equity bears' egos are so busy mauling the

Action vs. Political ‘Talk’

Published on 2011-06-02 09:55:00

One of Jim’s favorite phrase is (between a) rock and hard place. Either spend and kick the depressionary can down the road a little longer, or face the economic and social consequences of domestic and international debt implosion right now. There

Increasing Finite Supply During Periods of Infinite Monetary Expansion Won't Contain Price

Published on 2011-06-02 08:07:00

Fundamental forces such as supply and demand have far less influence on price than currency devaluation. The constant currency price of oil, while upward sloping over the long term, remains subdued below the median zone since 2008. While headline s

Shale gas ‘fracking’ halted after possible quake link

Published on 2011-06-02 07:59:00

Already under fire over perceived threats to local water sources, the natural gas industry is facing a new challenge: earthquakes. A small energy company halted its shale gas drilling and hydraulic fracturing program in Britain after two mild earthq

U.S.A., Energy Exporter?

Published on 2011-06-02 07:35:00

Hi Eric, Less than a decade ago, major American energy companies were investing billions in constructing new terminals for importing liquefied natural gas. Today, some of those same companies are contemplating spending billions to retrofit those fac

Morning Comments on Gold and Silver

Published on 2011-06-02 06:50:00

Morning Comments on Gold and Silver: Retail money (nonreportable traders) tends to be statistically concentrated on the short side at tradable bottoms. There’s still a lot of money hanging around the long side in the silver market. Expect retail

Prepare for More Money Printing

Published on 2011-06-02 06:32:00

The US economy simply cannot grow fast enough to mitigate its debt burden. Money printing or currency devaluation is the only feasible and politically acceptable solution. QE(n), direct or indirect, will continue because of the size of the burden and

State Budgets Still Hemorrhaging Red

Published on 2011-06-02 06:21:00

A litte job creation aided by massive federal stimulus has helped states keep their heads above water since 2009. Federal assistance runs out in 2012, though. Unfortunately, as suggested below very few structural changes have been made to turn red

Stocks sink as banks slash jobs outlook

Published on 2011-06-01 13:48:00

Afternoon Observations: Watch leveraged money flows into the decline. Is the equity dip being purchased or sold? Daily headlines rarely reflect capitals' true intentions. Slashing the outlook implied strength in the jobs market. Job creation until

Retest of Support As Resistance

Published on 2011-06-01 11:58:00

Silver, driven by hyperinflation, will resume its run once the underside kiss (smooch) is complete. Gold to Silver Ratio: [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Sound of Inevitability

Published on 2011-06-01 10:56:00

Can you hear that (Mr. Anderson)? That is the sound of inevitability. The outflows of capital from the U.S. Dollar (United States, Inc) will accelerate as long as taxation and spending remain unchecked. Capital always votes with its feet and will

(Don't Fear) The Repear

Published on 2011-06-01 09:36:00

Some good lyrics and trading advice – “Don't Fear the Reaper.” Headlines and experts, often agents of the trading sharks, convince retail money that the reaper stalks every corner of uncertainty. The picking of pockets through predictability

Gold Stocks Action Providing Technical Confirmation

Published on 2011-06-01 08:32:00

The technical message in the gold stock sector has begun to confirm the bullish setups in the leveraged markets. This combined setup suggests, like equities, an unexpected bullish outcome this summer/fall. Junior Gold Miners Index to Gold Ratio:

Utah Law Makes Coins Worth Their Weight in Gold (or Silver)

Published on 2011-06-01 07:04:00

Right now this law is largely symbolic. The next step in the process would be a transition from political pocket into monetary competition. Monetary competition tends to create views behind bars. Headline: Utah Law Makes Coins Worth Their Weight

Front page News Hiding Within The Stream of Headline Noise

Published on 2011-05-31 09:26:00

Below is a classic example of front page news hiding within the stream of headline noise. Damn straight another crisis is coming. Nothing has changed. As long balance sheet valuation fibs pass as facts, time and greed will spawn another crisis wit

Real Estate Is Not Recovering

Published on 2011-05-31 08:48:00

Headlines and media outlets have interpreted the resiliency in home prices since 2009 as a sign of recovery in the battered sector. Investors and potential home owners rushing to secure great deal will only find themselves squeezed by another round

Sell In May And Go Away Poll

Published on 2011-05-31 07:12:00

So far only 16% of the poll respondents voted no in “Stocks: Sell in May and go away” trading poll. Nearly 70% either voted yes or preferred to remain on the forecasting fence. My response to the 16% minority is I’m with you. Leveraged money

Spreading Activity Helps Establish Duration of Paper Operations

Published on 2011-05-30 08:04:00

The study of spreading position of non-commercial traders can be most useful futures and options market analysis. Statistical analysis of spreading activity can provide insight to the duration of paper market ‘operations’ in the precious metals m

Nothing Has Changed!

Published on 2011-05-29 08:23:00

Jim, A pause in a secular up trend, regardless of the spin and political rhetoric, does not represent change. Change cannot be averted by talk and meaningless dog-and-pony show style actions. The flow of funds report reveals that domestic non-fina

Spidey Senses Tingling In The Bond Market

Published on 2011-05-28 11:10:00

1970's cartoons rock! It appears that Fred's spidey senses are tingling. A quick glance at the computer analysis reveals statistical concentration by ‘deep pockets’. Perhaps Fred is really Peter Parker? US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And US Tre

Revaluation vs. Remonetization of Gold

Published on 2011-05-27 14:19:00

John, Which came first the chicken or the egg? Evolution suggests the chicken, but that's another discussion. The re-monetization of gold will occur at higher price, so technically, it’s still nothing more than a revaluation within a decaying mo

Gold's Equilibrium Price Is Rising

Published on 2011-05-27 07:43:00

Gold's equilibrium price is rising. The movement of capital suggests that 'smart money' knows why. Gold equilibrium without Mainland China Adjustment is $16,679 Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors (FDHBFIN) and the Equilibriu

Gold Is Debt

Published on 2011-05-26 14:31:00

Excessive debt creation leads to currency debasement, either through a reduction of percentage fineness and/or the weight of gold or silver coin or excessive fiat money creation. This, in turn, causes an upward revaluation of sound money (gold) via h

Gold's Revaluation Underway

Published on 2011-05-26 09:55:00

Gold's great revaluation continues to progess without a hint of understanding from the public. Headline: Bid to Use Gold as Collateral Advances Investors are closer to being able to use gold as a trading security after a European parliamentary com

Morning Silver Comments

Published on 2011-05-26 08:48:00

It's options expiration week in the precious metals. This suggests volatility, particularily for silver. Observations: Physical demand for silver remains hot The silver futures market remains in backwardation. Jim Turk explains it best, Markets (s

Demand for Long-Lasting Goods Falls by the Largest Amount in 6 Months

Published on 2011-05-26 06:45:00

Real or constant currency new orders of durable goods - ex. defense and aircraft have contracting consistently since 2001. The real economy remains weak and highly dependent on currency devaluation, commonly known as QE, to maintain the illusion of

Greek Commissioner warns about leaving euro

Published on 2011-05-25 13:14:00

Capital anticipates while politicians talk of possibilities. Euro gold at new highs reflects capital voting with their feet about the future of the EU. The same can be said for U.S. dollar gold. Euro Gold: A Greek EU Commissioner warned that the

Mark Haines Dies: CNBC Anchor Dead At 65

Published on 2011-05-25 10:20:00

Mark Haines Dies: CNBC Anchor Dead At 65 [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bearish Setup In U.S. Dollar Underway

Published on 2011-05-25 08:25:00

Bullish setups in gold, silver, stocks, and commodities are confirmed by a bearish count (setup) in the U.S. dollar. Ignore the newswire and follow the money. U.S. Dollar Index and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted

Court Orders New Jersey to Increase Aid to Schools

Published on 2011-05-24 15:18:00

Public spending deemed a constitution right in NJ. QE cannot stop because the system is utterly dependent on it. The late run in gold and silver suggests the market understands this reality. Headline: Court Orders New Jersey to Increase Aid to Sc

Coffee price hikes will bring tough wake-up calls

Published on 2011-05-24 13:08:00

The seeds of hyperinflation have been sown. Soon the public will have to deal with the harvest. Coffee drinkers are facing a tough wake-up call: Retailers are finding it increasingly difficult to hold the line as rising commodities prices percolate

Things Not As They Appear In Equities

Published on 2011-05-24 12:19:00

Flavor-of-the-day experts cite "Sell in May and Go Away" trading logic as the motivation for turning bearish. My personal rebuttal to this argument would be hogwash! Retail money, chronic tail chasers, has become increasing bearish into weakness (s

Retail Money Chases Its Tail

Published on 2011-05-24 10:24:00

Retail money chases its tail while connect players setup the market. Yesterday's commentary, Invisible Hand of Control In Crude Oil, discussed the setup well ahead of the newswire flash. Headline: Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Slips, Goldman Sachs Boost

Words of Wisdom Found Within The Daily Noise

Published on 2011-05-24 08:34:00

Great observations form Dow Theory Letter’s Richard Russell, Last Saturday Faye and I had coffee at the Pannikin, one of our local coffeehouses. A cup of decaf sells for two dollars. The place was busy with people eating lunch, talking or just dri

Fear Sees Only The Obvious In Copper

Published on 2011-05-23 12:33:00

Screaming sell when prices are falling is comparable to yelling fire in a crowded movie theater. This technique is effective in the trading world because the flight or fight response is difficult to suppress. Discipline supported by knowledge is cr

Invisible Hand of Control In Crude Oil

Published on 2011-05-23 12:12:00

The invisible hand of control is not restricted to the gold and silver market. The well-defined and recognizable money flow footprint can be found in the crude oil market. Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion Index (DI): Prices will continue t

Empty Your Pockets With A Handshake And Smile

Published on 2011-05-23 09:37:00

If you feel like a dog chasing its tail in gold, silver, even stocks, it’s time for a new strategy. Certain players will empty your pockets while you shake their hand in gratitude for 'good' information. You’re either a buyer or seller. Fence

A More Detailed Analysis of Silver Money Flows

Published on 2011-05-23 07:30:00

Denny, Short answers, no and no. Follow the money and watch the cycle dates. Silver is an extremely wild market, so the base formation will be bumpy. Connected money has been aggressively long buying into weakness despite constant headlines pushi

Illinois on the Brink of Financial Disaster

Published on 2011-05-23 07:13:00

Illinois, California, Wisconsin, New Jersey, New York, etc. are all near brink of financial disaster. Cutting spending as the economy rolls over is political suicide. This means the economic can will be kicked down the road, i.e. issuing more debt

States shorten duration for unemployment benefits

Published on 2011-05-22 19:36:00

Yet another reason QE(n) will continue. Some of the states that have drained their unemployment insurance funds are cutting the number of weeks that a laid-off worker can count on those benefits. Legislators are trying to limit tax increases for bu

Major Cycle Date Approaching & Money Is Moving

Published on 2011-05-22 08:23:00

As long as the public embraces flavor-of-the-day analysis as explanation for short-term price action, they will never acquire the vision to anticipate trend inflections. Trend inflections are a study of TIME and movement of money despite loud, consen

The Correlation Between Gold and Gold Stocks Breathes Over The Short-Term

Published on 2011-05-22 07:31:00

Thanks for sharing Noah The only opinion that matters is the message of the market. The market is bullish on gold and miners. This means I am bullish on gold and miners until that message changes. TA’s “three taps and out” has been complete

Home Sellers Provide Last-Resort Loans

Published on 2011-05-20 14:03:00

An increasing number of desperate buyers and sellers are reaching agreements that traditional, non-securitized lending conduits would not touch. Signs of credit strain are everywhere to be seen for those willing to look. Sue and Douglas Reed knew n

Hey Gold Bugs There's Strength In Numbers

Published on 2011-05-20 09:56:00

1.3 billion Chinese and 1.1 billion Indians are buying physical gold. The game of perception uses labels such as gold bugs and ‘out-of-touch morons’ (read between the lines on F-TV or similar) to create an emotional response despite the message

Mailbox - Unlimited FDIC Insurance

Published on 2011-05-19 12:30:00

Hello Eric - I always read your emails. For your information, there is unlimited FDIC insurance on all checking and non-interest bearing accounts in US banks through December 31, 2012: On November 9, 2010, the FDIC issued a Final Rule implementin

Silver Will Rise To Throw Hands Again

Published on 2011-05-19 09:13:00

Critical support tends to be tested as resistance. As expected, a technical kiss of previous support as resistance is underway in the gold to silver ratio (GSR). Silver transformation from investment darling to pariah in the eyes of many traders, ex

Fed considers tighter credit as economy improves

Published on 2011-05-18 15:10:00

Key word here is considers. Debate and action are two separate issues. Enacting policies to tighten credit while recent data reveals a broad based contraction would be politically unwise. The Federal Reserve last month began debating how it should

US Housing Starts Supports Continuation of QE(n)

Published on 2011-05-18 14:38:00

QE(n), either direction or indirect, will continue well after June 2011. The sharp and unexpected deterioration in US housing starts trend illustrates why. Housing Starts And Change YOY Headline: U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fall to 523,000

Fed Easing Policy Driving Rates Lower-Ironically

Published on 2011-05-18 12:12:00

The market, not the Fed, sets interest rates. Interest rates are heading lower, counter to what many in the bond market thought might happen as the Federal Reserve reaches the end of its quantitative easing program. The 10-year yield Tuesday slipp

Gold Shares Are Raising Dividends

Published on 2011-05-18 09:44:00

Gold companies from emerging to major producers, unbeknownst to most investors – even within the dedicated gold community, have slowly begun the process of issuing and raising dividends. Investors, often blinded by fear and emotions generated by e

Competition To Change The Landscape of Control

Published on 2011-05-18 08:42:00

Competition always changes the landscape of control. It will be interesting to see how the COMEX money flows will adjust to this news. Headline: Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange Receives Trading Authorisation From Securities and Futures Commission T

Liquidity-Based Rather Than Fixed Gold Standard

Published on 2011-05-18 06:32:00

A fixed gold standard will not stop the boom/bust cycle of credit and debt that accompanies economic expansions and contractions. People often forget that the gold standard did not prevent the Great Depression. This is why any 'gold standard' must

Public Confidence Is Fickle, Be Prepared

Published on 2011-05-17 06:13:00

Public confidence is fickle. One minute everything seems ‘normal’ and the next all hell is breaking loose. Yes, the dominoes that started falling in 2008 have not stopped. Does the public recognize the severity of the risks (leverage within th

I Haven`t Shorted Bonds Yet. I Am Going To Start Shorting Soon, Jim Rogers

Published on 2011-05-16 18:42:00

Perhaps Jim Rogers 'sees' the formation of another bearish setup in the bond market. I haven't shorted bonds yet, but you have a very good memory. I'm going to start shorting bonds soon. In fact, maybe when we finish this I might go over and short s

Unusual Credit Trends In Commercial Banking

Published on 2011-05-16 14:17:00

Fractional reserve banking is like a shark, credit must continue to expand (swim) or it faces death. This explains the unprecedented panic, as reflected by the speed and magnitude of the coordinated quantitative easing, to unclog the credit markets a

Debt limit reached, US halts 2 pension investments

Published on 2011-05-16 13:46:00

Headline gives new meaning to Alan Parson's Project song entitled Games People Play, 1980. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday that he will immediately halt investments in two big government pension plans so the government can continue

Never Say Never, Shorts Are Concentrating In Bond Market

Published on 2011-05-16 10:54:00

The debt issuance game is so important that semantics matter. The parsing of Bill Gross's words represents a sign of respect for being one of the best of the best in the debt market. The message of the market, however, supercedes the words of any i

Gold and Oil Playing A Similar Game

Published on 2011-05-16 08:36:00

Another weak to strong hand transfer to reestablish control of the trend. This transfer will create another professional entry point soon. CrudeOil (WTI) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weigh

Gold Market, "Stealing Candy From A Baby" Setup

Published on 2011-05-16 06:50:00

I have used idioms like "stealing candy from a baby" to describe the money flows during paper operations in gold. (1) Price decline creates fear (2) Headlines reinforce the fear (3) Control of trend is transferred from weak to strong hands (4) Repea

Jim Rogers Says Dollar Is Long-Term ‘Total Disaster’

Published on 2011-05-16 06:36:00

While certain interests continue to talk up the dollar to shape perceptions, there’s little they can do to alter economic reality. Currency debasement (printing) has never provided the foundation for stable, long-term economic growth. History wil

Bullish Setup in Copper

Published on 2011-05-15 08:19:00

Analysts have been using words such as “troubling” and “ominous” to describe copper's recent decline. In recent weeks, metals of all sorts--precious and industrial--have taken a beating in a major selloff in the commodities market. Experts c

Debt Ceiling More Like Line In The Sand Than Fixed Structure

Published on 2011-05-12 13:12:00

The ‘debt ceiling’ is more like a line in the sand to be casually stepped over than a fixed overhead structure. Headline: Treasury Auctions To Take US Over Debt Ceiling On Monday The Treasury Department auctioned $56 billion in new debt Tuesda

Dr. Copper? More Like Dr. Liquidity

Published on 2011-05-12 12:41:00

"Dr. Copper" is one of most over-hyped economic indicators out there. The real economic is far too complex to be simplified into follow Dr. Copper. Besides, copper like stocks, industrial and agricultural commodities are being driven more by Dr. L

Fundamentals: Money Out > Money In

Published on 2011-05-12 07:11:00

The sell off in gold and silver is nothing more than a transfer of control from weak to strong hands. These markets will turn, unexpectedly so in the headlines, once the paper fuel has been exhausted and concentration of funds emerges. Why? The fu

Consumers more sensitive to rising prices and shrinking portion sizes

Published on 2011-05-12 07:07:00

Some might call it a cost push inflationary diet. Rising gas prices in the US are being blamed for more expensive groceries, smaller restaurant portions and a hike in restaurant prices, says a new report released Monday. And that translates to a re

US house price drop accelerates

Published on 2011-05-11 08:45:00

Long-term readers should not be shocked by this news. The real estate decline began as a slow motion train wreck in 2001. It picked up speed in 2005. The trend in real, currency adjusted prices, illustrates the both past, present, and future pain

To Quote A Friend, We’re Nowhere Near a Top in Gold!

Published on 2011-05-11 08:26:00

While the ebb and flow is becoming more violent in gold and silver, its increasing amplitude does not alter the secular trend. A parabolic or extended run, like clown at a formal business convention, will be obvious. The acceleration from the prima

Ireland Is Not The United States

Published on 2011-05-10 12:24:00

Ireland is not the US. The US can issue debt in the same currency that it prints. The printing press solution is not an option for Ireland. With that said, only the naive would assume that all 'options' will not be considered if the printing solut

There's No 'Money' Gene

Published on 2011-05-10 10:56:00

The vast majority of the headline analysis about oil implies the recovery in price since 2009 has been a direct result of rising demand from the economic recovery. The sharp rebound, however, is largely currency induced. While the slow upward drift

U.S. Mint Gold American Eagle Coin Sales Quicken This Month

Published on 2011-05-09 14:43:00

Forget quicken, gold coins sales will go ballistic once “Three Taps and Out” completes faster than expected. The signs of secular bull market remain clear and obvious, yet despite them emotions of greed and fear rule the short-term. The U.S. Mi

Bearish Setup Forming In US Long Bonds

Published on 2011-05-09 13:15:00

Be wary of 'logical' arguments that lack support from fundamental market drivers. Money flow illustrate the formation of another bearish setup into strength. There's been no buy sign for Treasurys. That fact that Gross, Sinclair, et. al. continue

Gold & Silver: The Path To Concentration of Funds

Published on 2011-05-08 06:58:00

The probability of higher-order trend acceleration increases once the upper channel resistance has been breached. Money has been supporting the breakout by repositioning from short to long as previous resistance is tested as support. This suggests

The coming millionaire boom

Published on 2011-05-06 13:15:00

There's difference between being a millionaire tomorrow and maintaining the purchasing power of a millionaire today. Those that understand the difference store their wealth in a constant currency such as gold, while those that don't just assume one

Retail Money Is Always The Mark

Published on 2011-05-06 12:32:00

As if playing the game was simply this easy. A concentrated short position in oil has existed since February 2011. Expect the ‘concentrated short position’ to be reduced as the backsides of retail money have been chapped into weakness. Crude O

Labor Report Review

Published on 2011-05-06 08:10:00

While the economy is adding jobs, it's still not a strong recovery. Job creation has been largely limited to the service sector of the economy. Birth/Death Model (BDM) Contribution to Nonfarm Net Payrolls (NFP) Added/(Lost) An up trend break of j

There Are Many Parabolic Trend Within A Secular Trend

Published on 2011-05-05 11:09:00

The explosive nature of silver is whipping around retail money like a plastic bag in a strong wind. While the headlines have been citing silver an unsustainable, parabolic trend, they do so from a short-term perspective. ‘Parabolic’ has the Str

Gold Shares: Pessimism + Strong Tape = Accumulation Setup

Published on 2011-05-05 09:01:00

Morning Observations: (1) Retail money and headline analysis reflects pessimism towards the sector. (2) REV(E), trend/tape energy, soaring to new highs while price lags. (3) Observation 1 (Pessimism) + Observation 2 (Strong Tape) = Accumulation S

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough: The U.S. Collapse Will Follow Europe's, And Bernanke Will Be Fired

Published on 2011-05-05 08:16:00

While the vast majority of people remain in denial, their silence has been broken by the growing voice of concern. The point of no return has already been passed. Few know what this really means. The domino effect of debt maturity is coming to Ame

Clorox, with profit falling, raising prices

Published on 2011-05-04 14:38:00

Inflation is contained everywhere but the real world. Inflation and a sour economy eroded profit at Oakland-based Clorox, which has responded by raising store prices, the consumer products maker said Tuesday. Clorox earned $151 million on sales of

Is Gold About to Go Vertical?

Published on 2011-05-04 11:03:00

A bubble implies an unsustainable market. Gold is going up for a reason and will retain much of its value after the great rebalancing. The public has yet to participate in the great secular gold bull market. This will change as they always come late

The Only Thing We Have to Fear is Fear Itself

Published on 2011-05-04 10:48:00

(Link) View more Franklin Delano Roosevelt Sound Clips and Franklin Delano Roosevelt Inaugural Address Sound Clips Follow the money. Headline: Mexico, Russia, Thailand Add $6 Billion of Gold to Reserves, IMF Data Show M

A Picture of Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation

Published on 2011-05-04 10:17:00

Acceleration phases in the ISM's prices paid to PMI ratio illustrate currency induced cost push inflation quite well. ISM Prices Paid Index (PP) to National Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) Ratio: Observations: (1) The recent up tick in the ratio

Ebb and Flow of Greed and Fear Within A Well Defined Trend

Published on 2011-05-04 09:37:00

As Jim has suggested numerous times, margins will be raised until it’s a cash only trade. The headline below describes the classic ebb and flow between greed and fear within well-defined trend. Just last week silver was the hottest, most important

Relax

Published on 2011-05-03 14:38:00

Good advice from Jim. I would add that the movement of money during the decline reveals duration of the paper operation. The footprint of control reveals itself through statistical concentration. The statistical concentration will setup the next

Brother, Can You Spare A Trillion?: Government Gone Wild!

Published on 2011-05-03 12:05:00

Trading computer algorithms are designed to react rather than 'think'. Follow the money during the paper operation. The money flows will setup the next advance in gold. The reasons why are discussed below. [[ This is a content summary only. Visi

Only The Strong Survive or The Meek Shall Inherit the Earth?

Published on 2011-05-03 11:35:00

Those with hedges maintain their purchasing power, i.e. live kings, while the vast majority of the people on the planet struggle to eat and survive. A book called "Origin of Species" proposed a theory of natural selection that states "only the stron

Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR)

Published on 2011-05-02 11:28:00

Morning Observations: (1) Critical support tends to be tested as resistance. (2) Silver has become an explosive market. (3) The lower magnet is not done pulling. Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR), Monthly Average Price: [[ This is a content summary only

Currency Devaluation And Confidence Are Interconnected

Published on 2011-05-02 08:53:00

The seed of inflation were sown long before the "I can't eat an iPod" response. The ‘dance’ between currency devaluation and confidence tends to tenuous and volatile within a purely fiat system. The transition between prices are rising (mild in

Personal Consumption Continues to Soar

Published on 2011-05-02 08:13:00

Personal consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to an all-time high to 71.2%. The US economy continues to be a debt-based, consumption driven economy. The great consumption trend of 1981 and bubble of 2000 has yet to

U.S. gets C credit rating, lower than Mexico

Published on 2011-05-02 06:52:00

Capital understands the importance of ratings from large houses. There’s a big difference between perception and reality in many of the debt-laden economies across the world. The smaller domestic and various international rating agencies often di

Gold-Buying Central Banks May Signal Bullion Extending Record Price Rally

Published on 2011-05-02 06:44:00

The once sellers are becoming big buyers. Central banks that were net sellers of gold a decade ago are buying the precious metal to reduce their reliance on the dollar as a reserve currency, signaling demand that may extend a record rally in prices.

Accumulation In Key Soft Commodities - Opinion vs Message of Market

Published on 2011-05-01 11:23:00

A growing number of experts are beginning to suggest that the commodity rally is beginning to show signs of excess. Be wary of general conclusions based on broad asset class that ignores the movement of leverage money. The message of the market, mu

Opinions Vary On Silver

Published on 2011-04-30 08:30:00

The old World War II slogan "Loose lips might sinks ships" implied that unguarded talk might give useful information to the enemy. Loose lips are suggesting everything from a mania on the verge of collapse to $100 silver by the end of 2011. The r

Does A Rising Trend Suggest Real Estate Is Prospering?

Published on 2011-04-29 09:49:00

No. A rising nominal trend does not necessary suggest prosperity during periods of aggressive currency devaluation. Dow Jones Equity REIT to Gold ratio, the true message of the market, suggests replacing prospering with struggling. Smart money never

'Escape Hatch' Solution

Published on 2011-04-29 09:16:00

Hello Bob, Those with ‘vision’ follow human behavior and the movement of capital, i.e. historical lessons, to anticipate future events. Unfortunately, these lessons also suggest that history rhymes rather more than it repeats. What do we know

Increasing Austerity Programs Will Extend QE

Published on 2011-04-28 16:24:00

The trend towards smaller government, i.e. austerity programs, is not limited to the European Union. While the media may downplay similar problems in the US union, they have not gone unnoticed by capital. As goes austerity, so goes the size of quanti

Don't Blame the Weather

Published on 2011-04-28 14:00:00

Liqudity-driven recovery pushes nominal economic data and equities higher. For example, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CNFAI) and S&P 500 Average The real economy, however, paints a picture of a struggling expansion. For example, Real Bus

Wal-Mart: Our shoppers are 'running out of money'

Published on 2011-04-28 13:18:00

Welcome to the liquidity-driven, debt-laden economic recovery. The demographic of workforce/population reads as follows: (1) the select few prosper, (2) a lot simply try to hang in as long as possible, and (3) the vast majority are squeezed to the

What's To Decide?

Published on 2011-04-28 11:04:00

Below is classic retrospective analysis that tends to favor indecision. Liquidity, provided by currency devaluation, is driving stocks as well as many other assets higher. This continues until the next hemorrhage phase. Hemorrhage phases, or contr

The Game Is Changing As The Waterfall Decline Intensifies

Published on 2011-04-28 08:17:00

Ex post analysis (after the fact) is always easier than ex ante. Unfortunately, often cited retrospective analysis doesn’t help investors anticipate the big and profitable events. Investors with vision anticipate and survive; those without react

QE(N) Does Not End Here!

Published on 2011-04-27 13:20:00

QE(N) will not end in June. It simply morphs into something less obvious. Why initiate another “shock and awe” bond buying program when maturing debt reinvested into Treasuries can do the heavy lifting without unnecessary political attention in

A Balanced Budget Policy Will Have Consequences

Published on 2011-04-27 11:25:00

Balancing the budget within an economic contraction (depression), a popular idea today, is hardly a new. A policy of balancing the budget was adopted by Hoover Administration during the Great Depression in the early 30's. Capital's response to it h

Liquidity Lifts All Boats

Published on 2011-04-27 11:04:00

Liquidity lifts all boats. Some boats rise faster than others. At times I wonder if anyone other than Jim and Dan can recognize a parabolic trend? “Bubbly”, a term often used to describe the action in gold and silver by the media, has a distinc

Case Says U.S. Housing Already Experienced `Double Dip'

Published on 2011-04-27 08:09:00

The trends illustrated below support Karl Case's growing concern about real estate. U.S. Median Home Price (MHP) And MHP to Gold Ratio: S&P Homebuilders Index (HB) AND HB to Gold Ratio: S&P Homebuilders Index (HB) AND HB to U.S. Median Home Pric

State pension crisis balloons

Published on 2011-04-26 14:46:00

This ensures no early, easy, and/or practical exit from liquidity. States are $1.26 trillion in the hole when it comes to their pension and retiree health obligations, according to a report released Tuesday. And taxpayers are ultimately on the hook

Inflation Genie Has Left The Bottle, Not Going Back Easily

Published on 2011-04-26 13:30:00

Babies and possibly PM investors/traders in response to increased volatility are beginning to feel the pinch of rising cost of diapers. The inflation ball is rolling. The talk of containment well after the fact may be good headline fodder, but prac

Silver coin demand outstripping supply

Published on 2011-04-26 13:19:00

The public is just beginning to realize undeniable change has occurred in the silver market. Following yesterday’s spike up to nearly $50 per ounce, the silver price has declined and is currently trading around $46, though at one point earlier tod

Constant Currency Dow Transportation Better Represents the 'Real' Economy

Published on 2011-04-26 09:43:00

Higher stock prices, driven by liquidity (currency devaluation), support the premise of a solid economic recovery. The transportation stocks (transports), like small cap stocks, have always been more sensitive to liquidity. The computer buy program

The Rules Are Changing In Gold And Silver

Published on 2011-04-26 08:08:00

Possibly title rewrite to the headline below could be "Silver surges to All-Time high on Inflation Hedge, Industry Use, Then Gets Bombed Ahead of Two Day Fed Meeting." The disruption of (paper) control has turned silver into a highly-charged and exp

IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

Published on 2011-04-26 08:03:00

We have been talking about this for years. One person's bombshell is another's writing on the wall. The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed. For the first time, the international organization has set a dat

USDA Says Meat Prices to Soar

Published on 2011-04-26 08:00:00

Source: finance.yahoo.com [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Capital Buying Equity Dips

Published on 2011-04-25 12:54:00

Capital understands that currency devaluation (unlimited liquidity) drives up the nominal share prices. Accumulation during the dips illustrates this point. SP 500 And Equity Diffusion Index (DI): [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit

Copper Market

Published on 2011-04-25 11:23:00

Someone is accumulating copper into weakness despite calls that a top has formed. The movement of money, while not concentrated yet, suggests otherwise. Copper (JJC) And Copper Diffusion Index (DI) [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs

Silver and US Long Bonds Markets

Published on 2011-04-25 10:50:00

Silver, despite the hype generated by price action, is not the market of all markets. It is simply a market under ‘control’ strain. There is only one phrase that characterizes this market – sh*t is a changing. The old setup of shorting strength

What's Driving Equities?

Published on 2011-04-25 09:04:00

Liquidity! The bullish divergence in internal trend energy suggests new nominal highs in stocks in the near future. NYSE Internals: New nominal highs in stocks, however, illustrate neither a bull market nor economic recovery. The real (constant

China should cap forex reserves at 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars: China banker

Published on 2011-04-25 07:37:00

Subtle hints while the public and bulk of the trading world focuses on alternate 'realities.' Remember, China will be unable to sell US Treasuries without destroying price. This, however, does not mean they are exposed. China has been and will con

A Comparison of 1931-1936 and 2008-2013

Published on 2011-04-22 08:24:00

Real (constant currency) federal total receipts continue to contract as the federal budget (Jim's Formula) rolls over. This vicious cycle is characteristic of a Great Depression (or Recession). Vicious cycles are highly dependent on liquidity (quant

China’s Sinopec cuts off oil exports: state media

Published on 2011-04-21 14:25:00

The developments in the Middle East are best described as from "Order to Disorder" has accelerated the concept of "Peak Oil" into "Present Time." Gold will in this situation hold a huge percentage of its Hyperbolic Gain now taking full foundation as

McDonald's warns of higher food inflation

Published on 2011-04-21 14:15:00

McDonald's has warned of higher prices in the future. This is following a similar warning from Wal-Mart. Prices are rising faster than wages and salaries. In other words, the general standard of living is contracting. McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD -

Early Stage Trend Acceleration in Gold, Silver, and Gold Shares

Published on 2011-04-21 12:11:00

While the recent moves in gold and silvers have been impressive, they remain well within historical norms of an accelerating trend. Silver, London P.M. Fixed (Silver) and Z Scores from Primary Trend Gold, London P.M. Fixed (Gold) and Z Scores from

Quiet Acumulation of Gold Shares Since 2009

Published on 2011-04-21 08:52:00

Yesterday I discussed Goldcorp's (GG) building trend energy as representative of the setups within the gold mining space. The gold miners index ETF, a composite of many of the high-quality names in the sector, illustrates the depth of this setup wit

Happy Easter To All

Published on 2011-04-20 19:54:00

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Follow The Money

Published on 2011-04-20 16:22:00

The zombie logic provided by the mainstream headlines obscures an understanding of reality provided by following the money. Follow the money is probably the most important and discussed concept on Insights. Markets At A Glance: Follow The Money W

Perfect Setup In Quality Gold Shares

Published on 2011-04-20 10:28:00

Gold shares are unloved, maybe even hated. This is a perfect setup those that act based on discpline rather than emotion. Take for example, Goldcorp (GG). GG's trend energy and price reflects what is taking placing across many quality names within

Currency-Induced Inflation Driving Asset Prices

Published on 2011-04-20 07:30:00

Currency-induced push inflation has been the dominant driver of price since 2008. Nothing really changes. The vast majority (99%) of the public lives in the economic paradigm of the previous expansion or the world they have come to understand. By

Geithner says "no risk" U.S. will lose AAA rating

Published on 2011-04-20 07:06:00

Rating agencies can see the obvious but will be limited by the phrase "critical to national interests." Does a for sale sign on a car saying NEW make the obvious dents and rust disappear? No. Capital is not swayed by shallow observations. Headlin

Greece facing electricity strikes over austerity

Published on 2011-04-20 07:02:00

The world continues to deal with the ongoing debt crisis. The currency devaluation and austerity programs can lead to disruptions in services once considered birth rights by many. Greece's powerful electricity workers' union says it is considering

The Price of Gold Will Acelerate As Public Recognition Increases

Published on 2011-04-20 07:00:00

The weak dollar drives earnings and stock prices higher. IBM Unfortunately, rising earnings and stock prices are an illusion of currency devaluation. Ounces per share defines the real trend and impact of currency devaluation. IBM to Gold Ratio (

The Price of Gold Will Accerate As Public Recognition Increases

Published on 2011-04-19 19:05:00

QE to Infinity

Published on 2011-04-19 16:48:00

Who needs another QE program with a perpetual motion machine? Headline: Bernanke May Reinvest Maturing Debt to Avoid ‘Cold Turkey’ End to Stimulus Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may keep reinvesting maturing debt into Treasuries to m

Cash Assets of Commercial Banks Are Soaring

Published on 2011-04-19 12:16:00

The following table continues to reflect continued weakness in commercial bank lending. Particularly alarming is the sharp rise in cash assets as a percent of total bank credit (Cash%TBC). The blue arrow reveals that CASH%TBC is approaching 16%. T

BRICS make move to shove dollar aside

Published on 2011-04-19 09:33:00

This will become a market directed decision. China and four other leading high-growth economies have taken landmark steps toward lowering the importance of the dollar in international financial transactions — part of a seminal shift in the move to

Inflation Watch

Published on 2011-04-19 08:32:00

Another perspective on inflation - U.S. Companies Shrink Packages as Food Prices Rise. Reader Bryan E. wrote to mention: "Over the weekend we had visitors who are in the wholesale food distribution business. They were relating that they had experie

Not Done With The Yen Yet

Published on 2011-04-18 12:41:00

(1) Money positions (2) Ex post headline analysis provides the "reasons" for the public. Smart money is not done with the Yen yet. A rollover in the Yen will likely mark the next phase in the debt crisis. Yen (FXY) and the Commercial (C) Less Nonre

Invisible Hand Pushing Bonds Up At Support

Published on 2011-04-18 12:29:00

The 'invisible hand' is pushing hard to hold support. The bond bears are right, but getting TIME right will not be easy as point, click, and forget. US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And Bond Diffusion Index (DI): Headline: Treasury's Oldest Bonds Sh

S&P cuts long-term outlook for US debt to negative

Published on 2011-04-18 11:29:00

The officially recognized, read as not actual, debt burden remains near record levels. Devaluation, or ongoing default, is and always has been the tool used to manage excessive debt and deficits. The secular up trend in gold during Great Depression

Gold Stocks Have A Secret Weapon Called Dividends

Published on 2011-04-17 19:54:00

Gold stocks might be trading at similar capital appreciation valuations to that of 2009, 1982, 1979, 1960, 1945, and 1933, but let's not forget the power of dividends on total returns over time. Every secular bull sees a surge in dividends that will

Texas University Endowment Storing About $1 Billion in Gold Bars

Published on 2011-04-17 19:38:00

Demand for physical gold is soaring. The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the second-largest U.S. academic endowment, took delivery of almost $1 billion in gold bullion and is storing the bars in a New York vault, according to the fund

Follow the Money In Silver

Published on 2011-04-16 19:48:00

If smart money was turning bearish as suggested below, money flows would be accelerating towards the red rather green line. That is, unless commercial traders are no longer considered ‘smart money’. Don’t count on that. Silver remains a market

Food and gas costs push consumer prices higher

Published on 2011-04-15 11:10:00

Food and gas prices pushing consumer prices higher. So, what's pushing food and gas? The answer is not pixie dust. Americans are paying more for food and gas, a trend that could slow economic growth in the months ahead. The Consumer Price Index rose

Silver - Hot versus Too Hot

Published on 2011-04-15 10:17:00

A thermometer and the discipline to act, helps a traveler of the desert. A trend thermometer, a measure of trend "heat", and the discipline to act when the time is right, helps the traveler of the trend. The natural ebb and flow between silver and

Retail Sales And Quantitative Easing

Published on 2011-04-15 07:05:00

While the ninth straight month of rising retail sales numbers ‘plays’ well for the headlines, it does little to influence capital that knows the difference between nominal and real trends. Nominal prices are rising. Real or currency adjusted pr

"Don't hold your money, go ahead, spend it!"

Published on 2011-04-14 12:05:00

"Don't hold your money, go ahead, spend it!" This classic line from the video below epitomizes not only American (pop) culture but also its lack of understanding of money. Gresham's law that is often worded as "bad money drives out the good". Stor

Don’t Call It a Stimulus: 2012 Election Spending Likely To Top $8B

Published on 2011-04-14 11:39:00

The 2008 election was all about change. The stakes to maintain control have certainly changed (increased). 760M/872 Avg POG = 0.87 2008 8000M/2500 Avg POG = 3.20 2012 The road to the White House is paved with dollar bills... billions of them. Th

Indian Investors Switch to Silver From Gold

Published on 2011-04-14 10:54:00

Increasing marginal demand for physical silver is straining paper control. Paper shuffling can 'handle' only so much demand before a well-defined, two-tiered market (one for physical and another for paper) emerges. Investor confidence that the pap

In A Word - Close

Published on 2011-04-14 10:17:00

Why have Jim Sinclair, Pimco's Bill Gross, and other smart money begun to position against US long bonds? If there's one chart the provides a glimpse into their mind, it might be this one. 30-Year US TBd Yield and Gold London PM Fixed If there's

Small Cap Stocks Reveal The Evolution of Hyperinflation

Published on 2011-04-14 09:37:00

Hyperinflation continues to drive small cap stocks. Prevailing wisdom often suggests other outcomes, which in turn, creates uncertainty paralysis for most investors. Who’s right, the market or prevailing market wisdom? The market is always right

Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure

Published on 2011-04-14 07:08:00

The public is slowly recognizing the hidden inflation that capital markets and shadowstats.com already recognize. The conclusion that standard of livings will continue to drop in the years to come as a result of the debt crisis will gain increasing

IMF says sluggish U.S. growth requires easy money policy

Published on 2011-04-14 06:47:00

Has it ever occurred to anyone that printing money (on going default) might be the strategy to get its debt under control? A closer review of the proposed spending cuts reveals how $38 billion is more like $353 million. The U.S. economic recovery i

Central banks turn net gold buyers, cut euro zone debt: survey

Published on 2011-04-13 20:10:00

This should not surprise anyone here. Central banks turned net buyers of gold last year and cut exposure to debt issued by euro zone members Greece, Ireland and Portugal, an annual survey of the world's reserve managers showed. Source: reuters.com

Silver Doesn't Follow Headline Logic

Published on 2011-04-13 14:31:00

The buy signal of early 2011 has passed for silver. Today's money flow setup is probably best characterized as neutral (statistical unrevealing). Neutral, however, can easily translate into "Silver will Tarnish" to affect a response from computerize

Second Fukushima if Iranian Bushehr activated in May

Published on 2011-04-13 13:32:00

Natural disasters and human error aren't the only means to cripple an nuclear plant. Saudi and Kuwait officials have warned the US that if Iran activates its first nuclear reactor at Bushehr in May as planned, there is a good chance it will blow up

Singapore's SMX launching copper, gold, silver trade

Published on 2011-04-13 13:28:00

Cash settled contracts redirect demand away from physical markets. The weak hands get redirected while the strong hands accumulate. Headline: CORRECTED-Singapore's SMX launching copper, gold, silver trade The Singapore Mercantile Exchange will la

Bullish Internal Setup in Equities

Published on 2011-04-13 09:41:00

Stock market tops usually occur when no one expect them. Investors/traders tend to turn bearish (and bullish) at the wrong times. Nominal bull markets tend to show signs of age before they peak. Negative divergences of market breadth and tape relat

Soldiers die in ambush as Syria protests spread to coast

Published on 2011-04-13 08:02:00

The collapse of paper carries great consequences. Nine Syrian soldiers were killed in an ambush near the port city of Banias, state TV reported, and witnesses reported four protesters being shot dead in the city by security forces and pro-government

Spending Cuts Are A Game of Perception

Published on 2011-04-12 15:41:00

Political posturing over crumbs of much larger deficit pie is nothing more than a game of perception. The Formula below illustrates the depth of the problem in which the solution fools only the fools. Meanwhile, few have noticed a roll over in the

Commodities Moving from Left to Right

Published on 2011-04-12 13:10:00

Talk of a bubble ready to pop is premature. Shorting a trend moving from lower left to upper right is dangerous. Spot Commodity Prices: CRB Spot Index (1947 - Present); 16-Raw Industrial Spot Price (1935-1947); Great Britain Wholesale Price of All

Mailbox

Published on 2011-04-12 12:49:00

Don, Major retail brokerage outlets offer reliable and competitive electronic platforms. Day trading which is based on turnover can be difficult to control. Great profits are rarely found down the path of heavy turnover. Investing takes disciplin

Follow the Money In Oil

Published on 2011-04-12 11:29:00

Timely comments designed to scare the hell out of the weak hands. Very few coincidences in this business. Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Oil price drops more than 3 percent Oil tumbled more than 3 percent Tuesday a

Budget tricks helped Obama save programs from cuts

Published on 2011-04-12 11:07:00

Lots of arm waving over nothing. Any material reduction in spending will slow the economy into an election year. No chance. Details of last week's hard-won agreement to avoid a government shutdown and cut federal spending by $38 billion were relea

Valuations Are Not Driving Equity Prices

Published on 2011-04-12 10:03:00

The study of history must include a comprehesive analysis that exceeds at least one economic and confidence cycle within two different financial centers. Conculsions based on anything shorter, such as historical 'valuations' within varying degrees o

It's All About Control in Gold and Silver, Until It Isn't

Published on 2011-04-12 07:20:00

As Jim writes in Slow Rise To The Top gold and silver are all about control. The scatter plot below reveals one aspect of this control. This scat plot illustrates two-dimensional map between connected money flows and price changes in the paper marke

The Power of Perspective - Infinite Liquidity Or Be Damned

Published on 2011-04-11 14:26:00

If the following quote fails to clear up any doubt about the US's commitment to infinite liquidity as a means of supporting the ‘economic recovery’, you're not reading between the lines. Gold understands this commitment – probably better under

Roth IRAs: A real 'fiscal Frankenstein'

Published on 2011-04-11 13:12:00

As long as the proposed spending cuts remain merely crumbs on the plate of a massive spending pie, it's only a matter of time before the rules change not only for Roths but also other notable government sponsored retirement plans. Headline: Roth IR

The Dollar's Goose Has Been Cooked

Published on 2011-04-11 09:09:00

While the dollar's goose has been cooked, it seems few have noticed. The old phrase, "asleep at the switch" comes to mind when reviewing the headlines in 2011. Dan Norcini’s comments about the possibility of a ‘waterfall decline’ in the dolla

Japanese Yen

Published on 2011-04-11 08:11:00

Repositioning within the trend, i.e. the setup, almost always reveals itself in the leveraged markets. The pattern of inflows into weakness and outflows into strength has not changed since 2007. This is important, because a change will occur as the

Iceland Rejects Icesave Debt Deal

Published on 2011-04-11 08:03:00

Anger of the public towards bailout of the banks has spread across the globe. Voters in Iceland have rejected a government-approved deal to repay Britain and the Netherlands $5 billion for their citizens' deposits in the failed online bank Icesave,

'Control' Strain In Silver

Published on 2011-04-10 07:35:00

The normal footprint of control in the silver market is to buy weakness and sell strength. While the diffusion index (DI) reveals this pattern, its failure to push below the previous low during the latest price surge to new highs illustrates a marke

Shame Is Often The Motivation

Published on 2011-04-08 11:42:00

We are all guilty of walking down the path of life with our heads down at a quickened pace through its scary sections. Inevitably, seemingly without reason, we all stop, look around, and realize despite our shallow efforts to persevere, the path can

What's Driving Oil?

Published on 2011-04-08 10:10:00

The price of oil is not solely a manifestation of risk and fear from the Middle East. Currency devaluation, referred to as push inflation by Jim Sinclair, is playing a far-more significant role. Real (currency adjusted) oil prices remain within a d

The Message From The Gold Market

Published on 2011-04-08 07:27:00

It wasn't long ago when the newswire were populated with headlines suggesting caution towards gold. Now that prices have soared, fear has been replaced with greed. That’s how it works. That's why it’s best to ignore the headlines and listen to

Stocks Sink After News of Japan Earthquake

Published on 2011-04-07 09:53:00

Massive earthquakes spawn massive aftershocks. Stocks turned sharply lower after news of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake east of Sendai Honshu, in northern Japan, which triggered a tsunami alert. Source: cnbc.com [[ This is a content summary only. Visi

Bring on QE3! “We Can’t Afford NOT to Do More,” Romer Says

Published on 2011-04-07 08:44:00

Kick the can down the road to live another day or face the economic consequences here and now? The choice will be made to kick the can down the road when cries of “save me” intensify as an election year approaches. The only unknown is whether t

Video

Published on 2011-04-06 14:28:00

Paul Gunter, Beyond Nuclear talks about California rainwater 181 times above drinking water standards for radioactive iodine-131 & tones of radioactive waste gushing into the ocean. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full link

Negative Techncial Setup In US Long Bonds

Published on 2011-04-06 13:49:00

The long bond capital appreciation index which ignores income return reveals technical weakness in the nominal trend. The rising wedge since 1981 has already broken and topping formation is nearly complete. Bill Gross’s recent withdraw from US Tr

Physical Gold Leads Gold Shares

Published on 2011-04-06 13:26:00

No disagreement that the gold shares shorts are going to get roasted. I would only add that physical bullion has led the gold shares higher since 1971. The "power of gold shares" (in comparison to gold), often ignored in the short-term, is the incr

Long Bond Bear Must Follow The Money

Published on 2011-04-06 11:17:00

For those would joined me on our safari in Africa you might recall the key point in our discussions on markets. To quote, "There is an opportunity for all of us. It is going into a different business. You are going to become Long Bond Bear Inc. As

California Pension-Padding Exploits Loopholes for Thousands of Retirees

Published on 2011-04-06 10:33:00

While fiscal austerity (balancing the budget) might resonate with voters today, it will only exacerbate the problems that intensified in 2008. The public sector dwarfs that of the private. Cutting jobs, salaries and benefits, right or wrong, will r

Inflation inflicting pain, as wages fail to keep pace with price hikes

Published on 2011-04-06 10:14:00

There is no such thing as an economic free lunch. Currency devaluation, a form of ongoing default, carries the direct consequence of inflation. Standard of livings decline when wages and benefits fail to keep pace with inflation. Expect this trend

These are all California State Agencies

Published on 2011-04-06 07:12:00

A look at socialism from Bob These are all California State Agencies California Academic Performance Index (API) * California Access for Infants and Mothers * California Acupuncture Board * California Administrative Office of the Courts * Californi

Fed should focus on inflation, not jobs

Published on 2011-04-05 12:33:00

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has said he's 100% certain that he will know when the Fed needs to raise rates to fight inflation. Interest rates are driven by market forces, not Fed policy. Many investors will learn this lesson at at great expense to th

McDonald's to hire 50,000 workers - in 1 day

Published on 2011-04-04 20:53:00

Can we call this the hamburger flippers' recovery? Headlines: McDonald's to hire 50,000 workers - in 1 day McDonald's said Monday that it is planning a one-day hiring spree of 50,000 new workers on April 19 for its U.S. restaurants. McDonald's (M

Fed's Low Interest Rates Crack Retirees' Nest Eggs

Published on 2011-04-04 16:14:00

A nest egg based on the assumption of stable growth and currency never does well during a debt crisis stabilized by currency devaluation. The unfortunate and cold market reality is either adapt or be left for dead. Forrest Yeager, a 91-year-old res

Bull Markets Pronounced Dead In Headlines Well Before the Fact

Published on 2011-04-04 13:18:00

A nominal bull market will be pronounced dead in the headlines well before the fact. Equity rallies, like humans, tend to show signs of aging before they die. Negative divergences such as price relative to internal market strength often reflect an

Silver Transition From Order To Disorder

Published on 2011-04-04 10:02:00

The backwardation in the silver market reflect unprecedented physical demand for silver. What price relieves the backwardation - $40, $50, or higher? Only the market knows for sure. The trading sharks smell blood and will continue pushing a market st

Soaring Dividends During A Debt Crisis Don’t Mean Much

Published on 2011-04-02 16:42:00

What do soaring dividends in 2011 suggest? The return of investor confidence? The economy is strengthening? Stocks are a good buy? History says that soaring dividends during debt crisis reflects none of the above. Dividends soared into 1938, yet r

The Battle To Control The Trend Is Fierce

Published on 2011-04-02 12:42:00

Weakness disguised as strength in the labor market had very little to do with gold’s trading on Friday. A surge in shorts by connected money foreshadowed weakness well before the labor report. Gold London P.M Fixed and the Commercial Traders COT

Gold Is A Product of Debt, Not Business Activity

Published on 2011-04-01 11:27:00

Jim is absolutely right, debt (and the confidence in the currency that denominates its) drives gold. Currency devaluation, what the public recognizes as inflation, increases as the debt burden rises. Debt Cones: The greater the debt burden, the g

Job Creation Remains Weak

Published on 2011-04-01 08:06:00

Job creation remains weak despite the attention grabbing headlines. Headline analysis, designed to generate clicks, has a tendency to selectively filter information. A deeper look at the numbers and trends suggests that while the numbers look good j

Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon expects inflation

Published on 2011-03-31 13:51:00

It’s getting more difficult to relegate the inflation problem as a fringe argument. Hyperinflation has always been the inevitable consequence of excessive money creation (i.e. printing money – also known as quantitative easing (QE) today). The

Liquidity Is Grease For The Wheels In Equities

Published on 2011-03-31 10:40:00

Liquidity, also known as quantitative easing (QE), is grease for the wheel to higher nominal stock prices. NYSE Composite and Internal Force The Fed is hinting about ending QE in June 2011. As the old saying goes, talk is cheap. QE, announced, un

Irish prepare to learn full cost of banking crisis

Published on 2011-03-31 10:19:00

If the full cost were disclosed by the stress test(s), the consequences to "the game" supporting the banking system would be headline news. This is nothing more than a controlled release of selective information. Ireland prepared to learn the full

It's All About Debt And Currency Devaluation

Published on 2011-03-30 09:16:00

Any discussion about the direction of the secular trend in U.S. dollar that fails to mention debt is incomplete. The dollar is headed lower because currency devaluation is the only viable political option to handle industrialized nations' excessive d

GSR Says It's Game On For QE

Published on 2011-03-30 08:28:00

All global citizens, Chinese included, are hedging against soaring inflation caused by infinite quantitative easing (QE) through the accumulation of gold. The gold to silver ratio (see below) represents that it's game on for QE. Gold to Silver Ratio

Setbacks mount in Japan at leaking nuclear plant

Published on 2011-03-30 08:10:00

Setbacks mounted Wednesday in the crisis over Japan's tsunami-damaged nuclear facility, with nearby seawater testing at its highest radiation levels yet and the president of the plant operator checking into a hospital with hypertension. Nearly three

Utah: Forget dollars. How about gold?

Published on 2011-03-29 19:33:00

History being made one day at a time. The big legal change in Utah is that the state tax code now treats gold and silver coins -- issued by the U.S. Mint -- as currency rather than an asset. That means no capital gains or other state taxes will be l

Food inflation kept hidden in tinier bags

Published on 2011-03-29 15:32:00

We've talked about shrinking total serving sizes often hidden behind the illusion of similar sized packages for years - see 2010 commentary). Perhaps, the public is finally catching on to the shell game? My gut reaction says don't count on it. I st

Regulators define "safe" home loan

Published on 2011-03-29 11:53:00

It only stands to reason that "safe" must be defined by regulations since "unsafe" cannot be reflected by current prices. A distinction between the two does exist. Don’t expect this distinction to be recognized as long as the world struggles to

Real Estate Far Worse Than Advertised

Published on 2011-03-29 10:56:00

Falling home prices represents a classic illustration to the old saying, adding insult to injury. Home prices despite on going currency devaluation continue to fall in most major US cities. In other words, the headlines ‘slant’, even the more

A Picture of Growing Concern

Published on 2011-03-29 08:36:00

Below is a picture of liquidity. St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base: Below is a picture of concern. An up tick in historically low yielding cash assets suggests growing concern within the banking system. A breach of the 2010 highs cannot be ignore

Buffett Says Buy Businesses Over Long-Term Bonds as Dollar Value to Erode

Published on 2011-03-28 15:59:00

This also includes gold. Though, don't look for this suggestion to get a lot of headline space from notable names. Warren Buffett, the billionaire who urged Congress in 2009 to guard against inflation, said investors should avoid long-term fixed-inc

Here Comes The Fear

Published on 2011-03-28 14:48:00

It's ok to buy volatility, as long as it does not include gold? Gold is not only a favorite currency of 19th century cowboys and druids but also global citizens of the 21 century. This ‘favoritism’ manifests itself as rising gold prices across a

N.Y. governor, legislature agree on state budget

Published on 2011-03-28 10:14:00

Any material reduction in consumption as a direct result of spending cuts from the States will be met with additional liquidity. Have not doubt about it. Either direct or indirect injections, consumption cannot falter. Consumption, representing ov

Falling Supply, Rising Demand & Currency Devaluation

Published on 2011-03-28 09:29:00

Falling supply and rising demand within backdrop currency devaluation is an explosive cocktail driving commodity markets. Headline: USDA confirms corn exports of 1.25m tons to anonymous destination Meanwhile, US inventories of corn for 2010-11 are

Watching For Retest of Support as Resistance

Published on 2011-03-28 09:11:00

An underside kiss of previous support as resistance in the U.S. dollar Index is quite likely over the short-term. The testing process will bring volatility to gold and silver as connected money quietly repositions into the churn. Volatility tends to

Massachusetts job fair canceled because of lack of jobs

Published on 2011-03-27 19:00:00

Economic spin reaches only so far. A Massachusetts employment organization has canceled its annual job fair because not enough companies have come forward to offer jobs. Richard Shafer, chairman of the Taunton Employment Task Force, says 20 to 25 emp

Japanese Yen

Published on 2011-03-27 14:37:00

Japan's crippling debt rather than official interventions dictates a change in trend for the Yen in the future. Leveraged money will likely lead the change but does not have to pinpoint the exact high. Japanese Yen (FXY) and Yen Diffusion Index (DI)

The Facade Of Recovery Beginning To Crack

Published on 2011-03-26 14:00:00

Capital follows secular trends and breaks in counter trend reactions while headlines focus on the short-term. The facade of a economic recovery is beginning to crack. Any decay in the 'real' economy will be met with additional liquidity. Real Busine

QE to Infinity - Follow The Money

Published on 2011-03-26 08:25:00

QE to Infinity because there is no other functional alternative. The operative word here is "functional." Jim Jim has an uncanny ability to anticipate moves, because he understands the forces driving capital. In other words, Jim follows the money.

Breach suspected at troubled Japanese power plant

Published on 2011-03-25 12:09:00

Reactor three has plutonium. If the protective core has been compromised, the uranium inside could be transmuted into plutonium. Plutonium is extremely toxic to humans. This would be bad development for the Japanese in desperate need of positive news

Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole?

Published on 2011-03-25 09:05:00

Source: youtube.com From Bob [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

U.S. Dollar Index

Published on 2011-03-25 08:33:00

The technical position of the dollar remains weak. An underside kiss of previous support as resistance will confirm technical breakdown of consolidation and accelerate selling. U.S. Dollar Index Headline: U.S. Dollar ETF Put-Options Volume Surges

Gold Is Getting Wild, Get Used To It

Published on 2011-03-25 07:06:00

Experts rush to urge caution after an intraday plunge (hit) in gold and silver. They use words like outside reversal day and an unstable parabolic trend. An outside reversal day will be little more than "noise" within a secular trend in a few months,

Watch Consumer Credit

Published on 2011-03-24 16:24:00

Consumer loan growth, largely driven by growth in credit card loan expansion, is beginning to slow after a big surge in early 2010. Are the headlines beginning to reflect a tapped out consumer? Any decrease in consumer loan demand not matched by incr

US Finances Rank Near Worst in the World: Study

Published on 2011-03-24 15:24:00

Tell us something we don't know. The US ranks near the bottom of developed global economies in terms of financial stability and will stay there unless it addresses its burgeoning debt problems, a new study has found. In the Sovereign Fiscal Respons

Euro's Collapse Is Not Unthinkable: Warren Buffett

Published on 2011-03-24 10:47:00

History clearly tells us that all currencies fail in time. The only constant has been gold. At times, it's the centerpiece of commerce, while at others it is considered a barbaric relic of the past. That is, until the past repeats and the public tran

Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR)

Published on 2011-03-24 09:45:00

The market is barking out a clear message, but few seem to be listening. Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR): [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Greed and Fear Often Replace Objective Discipline

Published on 2011-03-24 09:05:00

The old idiom look before you leap is often forgotten in the investment world. Humans have a tendency to get emotional when money is involved. This means that greed and fear rather than objective discipline tend to drive public money decision-makin

Public vs Capital Perceptions

Published on 2011-03-24 07:05:00

Recently headline rhetoric predicted that extreme bullish sentiment readings in late 2010/early 2011 were foreshadowing an equity market crash. Sentiment Survey: The only thing that's crashed is extreme bullish sentiment. The stock market in resp

China May Match India as World's Biggest Gold Consumer on Investor Demand

Published on 2011-03-24 07:00:00

China and India are becoming a growing force in the physical gold market. Chinese consumption of gold may climb to rival that of India, the top user, as investors buy the metal as a store of value, said GFMS Ltd. and INTL FCStone. Demand in China,

Please Support Our Sponsors

Published on 2011-03-23 13:29:00

Please support and/or consider our sponsors. Insights demands effort, excellence, and dedication to provide a unique perspective on the capital markets and economic trends. Economic free lunches, though actively pursued for centuries, do not exist.

Explosive Setup in Gold and Gold Shares

Published on 2011-03-23 10:56:00

Gold, following historical precedence, is leading. Gold led the gold shares until 2010 breakout. The gold shares, despite the constant wall of worry, have played an impressive game of catch since 2009. Gold is currently probing the upper trading c

QE(n) Has No Convenient On/Off Switch

Published on 2011-03-23 09:32:00

Doubt it. The problem is and has always been debt. QE(n) has been and will continue to be used to combat the massive debt burden accumulated during the previous economic expansion. The following chart represents only the officially recognized debt

Gold may hit $5,000 an ounce in 3-4 years: Canadian miners

Published on 2011-03-23 08:30:00

It's easy to discount such as a biased forecast from a gold mining CEO. Rob McEwen is no fool, "Gold is used as insurance for bad governments," Rob McEwen, chairman and chief executive of Minera Andes Inc (MAI.TO) and US Gold Corp (UXG.TO). The inves

Running for the Exits

Published on 2011-03-22 17:10:00

Long bonds will become an investment pariah when confidence breaks - Follow The Money In The Bond Market. Smart money knows it. The wisest and most successful bond investor of all time, Bill Gross, has dumped his bond fund’s $150 billion investmen

Power crumbling, Yemen leader warns of civil war

Published on 2011-03-22 17:06:00

Yemen's U.S.-backed president, his support crumbling among political allies and the army, warned that the country could slide into a "bloody" civil war Tuesday as the opposition rejected his offer to step down by the end of the year. Tens of thousand

Blithely off to war

Published on 2011-03-22 10:08:00

Markets are one of the best sources of intelligence gathering (Intel) on the plant. This makes them an excellent barometer to success and failure of political policies and decisions. The ability to gather and interpret this intel depends one’s abil

Follow The Three Horsemen

Published on 2011-03-22 09:28:00

Paper shuffling always seems to find enough inflows to cover the deficit spreads. Deterioration in "funding game", however, will be revealed by following the marginal buying and selling the three horsemen rather than total inflows. The Chinese and Ja

US Treasury to sell $142 bn of mortgage assets

Published on 2011-03-21 20:14:00

Right, much more robust. The products, secured by state-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were bought as part of the 2008-2009 financial sector bailout. As the housing bubble began to burst the Treasury and Federal Reserve bought up

Mega-Banks and the Next Financial Crisis

Published on 2011-03-21 20:06:00

At the height of the housing bubble, hedge-fund manager Paul Singer was shorting subprime mortgages. By the spring of 2007, he was warning regulators on both sides of the Atlantic that the world was facing a major financial crisis. They ignored him.

Portugal gov't nears collapse amid debt crisis

Published on 2011-03-21 16:17:00

Changes in the locus of power (control) have almost always been about the debt. Democracy, theocracy, autocracy, communism, etc. will be challenged by the consequences of extreme debt burdens in the coming years. Transitions are never easy as power s

Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure

Published on 2011-03-21 16:12:00

Don't forget about China. Their purchases will be disclosed long after the fact. Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has drive

Follow The Money In The Bond Market

Published on 2011-03-21 11:01:00

Following the money is easier said than done. The inference of hard does not mean that it can't be done. Long bonds will become an investment pariah when confidence breaks. US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And Bond Diffusion Index (DI): US Treasury Bo

Discpline Removes Emotional Decision Making

Published on 2011-03-21 09:38:00

Merchants, investors, traders etc that allow their emotions to override their discpline for higher-order reasoning, a human behavior that has ruled organized markets for thousands of years, will lose. When are the markets not emotional? Headline: D

What Is Dr. Copper Saying?

Published on 2011-03-21 09:23:00

Many experts have cited that (Dr.) copper's recent decline suggests a weakening of the economic recovery. The market is sending a different message. In my commentary, Is Copper Suggesting Caution, I proposed that copper is being driven more by liquid

Confidence Is the Biggest Threat To Economy

Published on 2011-03-21 09:00:00

Rising oil prices, government deficits, falling real estate prices, etc. are all symptoms of a greater problem. The problem is excessive debt. The greatest obstacle that threatens to derail the liquidity-driven recovery is loss in confidence in the

The Transfer From Weak To Strong Hands In Gold

Published on 2011-03-20 12:06:00

Connected money sells (shorts) as the market advances. They buy as it declines. Capital tends to show statistical concentration at major inflections points. These tend to reflect 'easier' entry points. Unfortunately, it also represents a time whe

Libya to give weapons to 1 mln people:state media

Published on 2011-03-20 09:35:00

To borrow Jim's phrase, here we go again. A secular trend of oil priced in U.S. dollars should serve as reminder to the consequences of actions. Russia benefits from this trend. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (OIL) AND Oil to Gold Ratio (OILGLDR

Secular Trend in Real Estate Is Down

Published on 2011-03-20 09:01:00

In my commentary QE1 and QE2 are not helping real estate I suggested that QE wasn't doing much to help real estate. The headline and commentary below continues to support this assertion. Access to credit (credit creation) has been contracting within

Radiation found in food as workers scramble to curb nuclear crisis

Published on 2011-03-19 12:40:00

Radioactivity will burrow into food chain for years to come. As workers scrambled to curb a nuclear crisis Saturday, the Japanese government is looking into halting the sale of food from farms near Fukushima plant after abnormally high levels of rad

Japan radiation fears spark panic salt-buying in China

Published on 2011-03-19 12:09:00

Fear is a powerful motivator. China tried to quell panic buying of iodized salt Thursday after grocery stores across the country were emptied of the seasoning by hordes of people hoping to ward off radiation poisoning after the nuclear accidents in

Forget Harvard and a 4-Year Degree, You Can Make More as a Plumber in the Long Run, Says Prof. Kotlikoff

Published on 2011-03-18 14:27:00

The value of an education is a lot like a race car driver. While a fast car helps, it's always the skill of the driver that wins a race. Whether one's education merely introduces the fast car, or imparts the skills necessary to drive it, depends mo

QE3 May Be ‘Unavoidable Fact of Life’: Strategist

Published on 2011-03-18 12:21:00

The function would be defined as QE(n) for those familiar with the nomenclature of calculus. The US Federal Reserve may have no choice but to introduce a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, in light of the significant headwinds facing the gl

Yemeni snipers open fire on protesters, kill 40

Published on 2011-03-18 11:57:00

The level of control (or lack their of) within a governing body tends to proportional with the level of violence used against their own citizens. Yemeni government snipers firing from rooftops and houses shot into a crowd of tens of thousands of ant

World stocks higher amid G7 pledge to restrain yen

Published on 2011-03-18 06:54:00

Centralized intervention against the flow of capital never succeeds. The Yen, driven by devaluation (printing press), will weaken under the crippling weight of its enormous debt burden in time. A change in the trend is likely to occur at key cycle da

Nearing Significant Shift In The Bond Market

Published on 2011-03-17 13:17:00

Commentary No. 358: February CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real M3 - Economy Slumps Anew as Inflation Soars - Fed’s Dollar Debasement Efforts Begin to Yield Their Poisoned Fruit - February Annual Consumer Inflation: 2.1

BAHRAIN LIVE: Iran Will Respond With "All Power And Potentials At Its Disposal To Halt The Oppression Of The People Of Bahrain"

Published on 2011-03-17 09:54:00

Eventually investors' attention will turn towards the developments in the Middle East. This is serious. The Bahrain proxy conflict and the actual conflict continue after yesterday's shocking violence. Iranian lawmaker Hossein Naqavi tells Press TV:

Stocks open higher on drop in jobless claims

Published on 2011-03-17 09:08:00

A good example of "economic noise" used to explain price action. Utter nonsense, but the association works on an emotional level, so it sells. Stocks are opening higher, a day after suffering their worst losses in seven months. Before the market op

Liquidity vs Hemorrhage Cycle Revisited

Published on 2011-03-17 08:49:00

Liquidity (currency devaluation) has always been the solution to all crises. The Japanese have little choice after a devastating disaster. Unfortunately, the economic illusion provided by liquidity phase vaporizes like fog in the early morning sunshi

Debt Cannot Be Ignored

Published on 2011-03-17 07:29:00

A problem ignored is a problem solved has been the political solution in regards to debt for many years. The debt market has reached a point where the 800lb gorilla within the room can no longer be ignored; currency devaluation occurs under the back

U.S. warns Japan spent fuel pool may have run dry

Published on 2011-03-16 16:13:00

The top U.S. nuclear regulator warned on Wednesday that one pool holding spent fuel at Japan's stricken nuclear plant may have run dry and a second could be leaking, something experts say could accelerate the release of radiation. "We believe at thi

World QE to Infinity

Published on 2011-03-16 14:26:00

The deal is done. World QE to Infinity As long as the Japanese keep their US treasury sales to modest or none, the Fed will join in providing QE to Japan. This is not what I think, but rather what I hear. Jim I agree with Jim. Capital is clearly

Timeline: Anti-government protests in Bahrain

Published on 2011-03-16 11:47:00

It's proxity to Saudia Arabia warrant close attention. This is what the oil market is saying. Protesters demand release of Sheikh Ali Salman, a Shi'ite Moslem cleric arrested after distributing leaflets calling for restoring parliament dissolved in

Problem Denied Is Not A Problem Solved

Published on 2011-03-16 11:14:00

Very often a problem denied is a problem solved. While denial works within some aspects of society, it finds little practical use in the world of money. Capital in a state of denial does not hang around long. Smart money knows that a rubber band str

'Solutions' Represent Different Sides Of The Same Economic Coin

Published on 2011-03-16 09:26:00

Bob, The distinction between “left and right” will blur as market forces smash both sides of the argument. Raising taxes or currency devaluation as a result of infinite liquidity are two sides of the same economic coin. This coin represents a lo

Gold Is The Ultimate Safe Haven

Published on 2011-03-16 08:11:00

The Swiss franc has been the safe haven against the devaluation of most, if not all, fiat currency. Swiss Franc (FXF) A safe haven discussion, however, must include gold. Gold priced in Swiss francs has been rising steadily since 1999; the pace of

Real Estate Struggles Despite Liquidity Driven Recovery

Published on 2011-03-16 08:08:00

Real estate remains a sore spot for the liquidity-driven recovery. As I have suggested in previous commentary, it will take years (decades) for real estate to recover. Housing Starts And Change YOY Headline: New-home construction plunges in Februa

In The News

Published on 2011-03-16 06:53:00

BOJ responds with liquidity injections as concerns mount. Headline: Japan Nuclear Reactor Cores May Be Damaged A fire and aftershocks struck the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant today, as officials battling to prevent a nuclear meltdown said

Japan abandons stricken nuke plant over radiation

Published on 2011-03-15 21:55:00

Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said work on dousing reactors with

If Market Keeps Falling, Fed Will Keep Printing: 'Dr. Doom'

Published on 2011-03-15 15:07:00

In Disney's movie Finding Nemo, a blue fish name Dory sings a catch little hook that repeats the phrase "just keep swimming." Replace swimming with printing and the Fed has a theme song. Falling stock prices will be met only with more money injec

When Will Silver Hit $50 Poll

Published on 2011-03-15 13:40:00

Thank you for all that voted in the When Will Silver Hit $50.61% of the voters thought silver would reach $50 in 2011. 18% thought it would not be reached until 2012.Reality check. 75% of the voters suggested that stocks would end lower in 2010. Les

Interpretation Is A Matter of Perspective

Published on 2011-03-15 13:17:00

Nonetheless, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been subdued. One group's subdued is another's boisterous. As many things in life, interpretation is often a matter of perspective. Spot

U.S. February Import and Export Price Index Report

Published on 2011-03-15 12:31:00

It's easy to miss economic trends with attention rightly focused on other more important humanitarian concerns. As the experts discuss the risks of deflation, reality continues to contradict that argument. Import and Export Price Change YOY: U.S.

Credit Trends

Published on 2011-03-15 10:32:00

Observations: Cash assets rose for the first time in five months. The jumped represents 13.5% total bank credit. This is just a shade below the early 2010 high.Business & commercial, real estate (including home equity and commercial real estate

America on radiation alert: Japan faces world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl as experts warn fallout may reach U.S.

Published on 2011-03-15 09:51:00

America on radiation alert: Japan faces world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl as experts warn fallout may reach U.S. California 'monitoring situation closely' amid dramatic escalation of disaster Japan's nuclear crisis now appears worse th

Liquidity Injections Carry Consequences

Published on 2011-03-15 09:05:00

Emotions are certain push around the gold and silver markets in coming days/months/years. In light of the increased volatility, it is important to note that nothing has changed. Global and domestic (US) problems will continue to be met with direct or

Keeping The Tiger (Gold) In Its Cage

Published on 2011-03-14 13:46:00

Afternoon Observations (1) As the video below suggests, the "subtle hand" is trying hard to keep the tiger in its cage. The caging process started well before the Japanese earthquake. Gold London P.M Fixed And Gold Diffusion Index (DI) (2) Sil

Is Copper Suggesting Caution?

Published on 2011-03-14 12:42:00

Some experts are suggesting “caution” as a result of recent weakness in copper prices. As an interpreter for the markets, I would caution against any such conclusion. Copper, often cited as a measure of economic demand in emerging economies, ha

NOW California's Biggest Pension Fund Wants To Cut Its Earnings Forecast

Published on 2011-03-14 08:00:00

This heated debate will move across the country as this pension problem is not limited to California. CalPERS, California's largest public employee pension fund, is considering cutting its earnings forecast, a move that would surely inflame a heated

Radioactivity detected 60 miles from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant

Published on 2011-03-14 07:52:00

The scope of the disaster will come out in time. Until then, the markets will objectively discount the outcome under an environment of fear. Pentagon officials reported Sunday that helicopters flying 60 miles from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant

Japan central bank injects funds as stocks plunge

Published on 2011-03-13 21:25:00

This will mark yet another global liquidity blast. Any material reduction in Treasury purchases by the BOJ will be meet by additional purchases from the Fed. Japan's central bank injected a record 7 trillion yen ($85.5 billion) into money markets an

Connected Concern of Nuclear Power Plants

Published on 2011-03-13 07:56:00

We all have a stake in each other's nuclear power plants. There is one on the Hudson River a nuclear power plant about 14 miles from mid-town New York City that stands directly on a major FAULT. Who makes these decisions? Jim Fallout Map: Headlin

The Battle In Nat Gas

Published on 2011-03-12 11:35:00

Retail money continues to get flushed. Don't expect them to be heavily invested if this market turns on a technical trigger. Natural Gas (UNG) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Avera

Jim Rickards - “QE is dead, long live QE!”

Published on 2011-03-11 18:54:00

As we approach the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing program many are prepared to shout, “QE is dead!” Few realize the old royal salute is more appropriate – “QE is dead, long live QE!” Because an heir to the throne is here and will be

Tsunami sweeps away certainty for the world's third biggest economy

Published on 2011-03-11 16:12:00

Today’s earthquake in Japan was truly tragic and devastating event. As time passes, the global public will come to recognize the scope of the devastation. For readers from Japan and the Far East, please stay well. The San Francisco earthquake of 1

iPad price remark gets Fed's Dudley an earful

Published on 2011-03-11 14:31:00

Using 5th Amendment strategy when attempting to answer a real world question about rising food prices doesn't work in Queens, NY. Memo to central bankers: Best not to cite the price of the new iPad as an example of why inflation isn't a problem whe

Dudley signals Fed won't tighten any time soon

Published on 2011-03-11 13:31:00

For those that had doubts about QE3, QE4, and so on. A top Federal Reserve official signaled on Friday the central bank won't tighten monetary policy any time soon, even as the jobs recovery looked set to quicken. New York Fed President William Dud

Utah Legislature goes for gold, silver as currency options

Published on 2011-03-11 08:00:00

Readopting a fixed gold standard won't do much to prevent future debt and financial crisis. The 1930's depression was a classic example of how a fixed gold standard could not prevent a financial crisis. When the debt bubble burst in 1929, currency de

Steer clear of US debt, expert warns

Published on 2011-03-11 07:15:00

Treasuries follow the movement of leveraged money flows over the short term. Heavy inflows in late 2010 and early 2011 has provided support to the bond market at a critical juncture. US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And Bond Diffusion Index (DI) Some

Follow The Money

Published on 2011-03-10 15:06:00

Capital does not seek direction from "headline noise”. The movement of smart money, despite what is implied by headline analysis, is deliberate and controlled. It tends to move against headline noise and with the secular trend. In other words, smar

Jim Sinclair's Market Observations

Published on 2011-03-10 12:13:00

Morning thought. As the price of gold rises the battle around round numbers such as $1400 get wilder and wilder. Rhart is the summation of what you see going on now. Trader's views on gold now has come down to 30 seconds, maybe less. Jim At times

Debit card spending limit? Banks consider a $50 cap

Published on 2011-03-10 10:19:00

While this idea remains in design stage, it does illustrate a classic example of "cause and effect" within the political and financial worlds - which are increasingly one in the same today. Setting fees through regulation rather than market driven en

Jeffrey Gundlach: Munis Are The New Subprime

Published on 2011-03-10 06:51:00

The public, protesting within many of the States about to default, has yet to realize the driving force behind their fiscal problems. That is, the inability to borrow and/or service existing debt because the municipal bond market has entered a deep f

Pimco Goes to Cash, Exits Treasurys

Published on 2011-03-09 15:27:00

Gross writes, who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t?" There will be immediate economic and social consequences for not kicking the economic can down the road if QE ends in June 2011. Pimco is right to be nervous regardless of any official de

A Deep Freeze Hits Muni-Bond Market

Published on 2011-03-09 12:18:00

Capital always withdrawals when reward (yield) does not compensate for the risks taken. Yields must rise or the deep freeze will continue without the aid of another buy America program. Municipal-bond issuance is on pace for its lowest quarter in a

China adviser says Beijing should buy more gold

Published on 2011-03-09 11:27:00

One nation sells strength, while another buys weakness. China should use some of its $2.85 trillion foreign exchange reserves to buy more gold XAU=, a government adviser was quoted as saying by local media reports on Wednesday. Li Yining, a senior

Welfare State: Handouts Make Up One-Third of U.S. Wages

Published on 2011-03-09 10:56:00

Milton Friedman's observations, capitalism vs socialism, were and still are correct today. Government payouts—including Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance—make up more than a third of total wages and salaries of the U.S. popula

Kicking The Economic Can Down The Road

Published on 2011-03-09 09:34:00

Why has the Fed been aggressively purchasing US Treasuries since 2009? The official answer is to provide liquidity to the banking system in order to encourage borrowing. Has the liquidity injections accomplished this goal? As we have written many tim

Milton Friedan on Capitalism vs. Socialism

Published on 2011-03-09 08:49:00

In his book "Capitalism and Freedom" (1962) Milton Friedman (1912-2006) advocated minimizing the role of government in a free market as a means of creating political and social freedom. Below is a short excerpt from an interview with Phil Donahue s

Pennsylvania budget calls for deep spending cuts

Published on 2011-03-08 18:00:00

Another State with unprecedented fiscal problems. Calling the state's fiscal problems unprecedented, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett unveiled Tuesday a budget that asks state employees to forgo pay increases and pay more for their health care. The st

Secular Trend In Oil

Published on 2011-03-08 15:11:00

The secular trend (message) in oil is up. ---- Dear CIGAs This and other reasons amplify and solidify my call for $150+ oil in 2011. monty. Subject: From STRATFOR - Bahrain and the Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia...by George Friedman (good r

In The News

Published on 2011-03-08 13:54:00

Icahn is returning 25% of the money in his fund because he doesn't want the headaches brought about by another market crisis. Don't follow the words, follow the money. Headline: Icahn says he will return his investors' money Carl Icahn, the billio

Fiat Money Is All About Confidence

Published on 2011-03-08 12:10:00

We often talk about the intrinsic value of the raw materials that compose coins and bills, but it’s really end-user “confidence” that provides fiat money value. Confidence is a fickle thing. It's there without question one minute and gone the n

Gold Market Saying Living Standards Doomed To Fall In U.S.

Published on 2011-03-08 11:13:00

Gross suggests that living standards doomed to Fall in the U.S. The gold market, and experts that interpret it, has been conveying this message for years. The secular trend in gold will accelerate when the pubic finally recognizes the severity of thi

Vicious Cycle In Real Estate

Published on 2011-03-08 10:06:00

It's called a vicious cycle. Lower real prices are squeezing the heck out of homeowners buried under too much mortgage debt. It's the main reason why QE1, QE2, and the coming QE3 are not helping real estate. It will take decades to over come both th

Gold Shares Continue To Following Sector Breakout

Published on 2011-03-08 08:51:00

Gold shares from juniors to majors are following the massive breakout of the 30 year consolidation within the gold shares sector. The majors and mid-tier producers, consistent with previous secular gold bull markets (see dividend payout of homestakin

The Inevitable End of 1946-2011 Jefferson Nickel

Published on 2011-03-08 06:35:00

The cost to produce the copper/nickel clad nickel is $0.0697 and rising. In other words, just like 90% silver coins and 95%/5% copper pennies, it's only a matter of time before the copper/nickel clad nickel will disappear from circulation. What the p

Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt

Published on 2011-03-07 19:01:00

Any material development here will send the dollar lower and gold higher. Headline: Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt Saudi Arabia was yesterday drafting up to 10,000 security personnel into its north-eastern Shia Muslim p

Fed must be flexible given oil prices, Lockhart says

Published on 2011-03-07 18:52:00

QE1, QE2, QE3, and so on. Headline: Fed must be flexible given oil prices, Lockhart says Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said that while his first instinct is to be “very cautious” about making another round of bond purchase

Utah House Passes Bill Recognizing Gold, Silver as Legal Tender

Published on 2011-03-07 15:26:00

The fact that this news probably surprises a large cross section of the public implies far too many high school U.S. government classes no longer study or read the U.S. Constitution beyond “We the People.” Headline: Utah House Passes Bill Recogn

Deteriorating Confidence Makes Governments Insolvent

Published on 2011-03-07 14:28:00

The inability of governments to pay their obligations in constant dollars, also recognized as inflation by the public and ongoing default by capital, has been occurring since 1934. It certainly intensified in 1971. The secular gold trend suggests tha

Wall of Worry or Bubble?

Published on 2011-03-07 12:51:00

Real estate was the “can’t lose” investment of a generation in 2007. Borrowing and consumption skyrocketed, and very few experts saw the formation of a stock market bubble. In other words, the headlines reflected growing optimism that the boom/

She's in a cla$$ by herself

Published on 2011-03-07 12:44:00

Eric: I’m a loyal follower. Great work/site. I read the NY POST-for not only the obvious scandals, the cartoon, etc., but also for some real hard hitting stories other papers won’t touch. Geez, they had Slick Willie nailed in 1991. Anyway, che

Euro Will Strength Through Addition By Subtraction

Published on 2011-03-07 07:07:00

Market forces and economic reality, not rating agencies, have been tipping Greece closer to the brink. Rating agencies only specialize in locking the barn door after the horses have bolted. In a surprise turn, the Euro continues to rally against the

There Are Bigger Gorillas In The Room

Published on 2011-03-06 15:26:00

While investors have become preoccupied with the battle in Wisconsin, they seem to have forgotten the bigger budgetary Gorillas in the same room. States such as California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, etc have much bigger defects. Bigger problems

Slow And Steady Transition In Natural Gas

Published on 2011-03-06 11:08:00

Leverage money flows illustrate the continuation of a net long transfer from retail to commercial traders in natural gas. Natural Gas (UNG) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average

Oil Is Headed Higher

Published on 2011-03-04 12:49:00

Aggressive inflation will send oil a lot higher than $200 (USD) by the end of this cycle. Of course, gold will be significantly higher by 2016. This suggests that $200-$300 (USD) oil won't carry the same real cost as it would in 2011. Let it not be

China Signals Dominance in Stealth Jet Test Flight

Published on 2011-03-04 11:33:00

A far more likely scenario than Pomfret's musings is that Hu is playing a cagey game. By hinting that the People's Liberation Army made the decision without civilian knowledge, Hu is showing he is reasonable and not warlike but the test underscores C

Investment History Made One Day At A Time

Published on 2011-03-04 10:59:00

The gold stocks, following three taps and out trading heuristic, broke away from long-term consolidation on May 2010. S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)* *S&P Gold from 1945, Barron's Gold Stock Index from 1939-1945, 1922-1939 Homest

The Problem Is Debt, Not Jobs

Published on 2011-03-04 08:26:00

The rate of job destruction has slowed appreciably. This is illustrated by the slow and steady climb of Jobs Creation Histogram (JCH) towards zero. While this is good news for job seekers, it does not suggest an end of the economic problems that co

U.S. Dollar Index At Important Technical Juncture

Published on 2011-03-03 18:32:00

The dollar index is dangerously close to completing the "three taps and out" trading heuristic of a large consolidation pattern that formed in 2008. A break of this pattern would signal not only continuation of the secular downtrend and but also, and

One Heck Of A Mess

Published on 2011-03-03 13:38:00

That’s because Mr. Gross is no dummy. He knows that economic growth is highly dependent on public sector spending. This is fact – right or wrong. Economic growth will crash faster than public support for increased taxation if the flow from the sp

Rising Stock Markets Don't Always Translate Into Currency Adjusted Profits

Published on 2011-03-03 13:18:00

The proper description would be Wall Street jumps on optimism that quantitative easing will continue unabated until the wheels fall off. That verison is not as user friendly, so as George Gershwin once wrote, You like "po-tay-to" and I like "po-tah-

Economic and Social Problems Stem From Failing Debt

Published on 2011-03-03 11:21:00

Nothing unexpected. The problems we face today stem from failing debt - not the number of people requesting unemployment benefits. It still works because the need to believe outweighs most higher order, economic reasoning skills. Average Weekly Init

Mailbox

Published on 2011-03-03 10:31:00

Mike, I appreciate your and all comments, but respectfully suggested a more comprehensive review of my analysis before reaching any broad conclusion. As I have explained numerous times in the past, nominal charts (unadjusted for currency depreciatio

Hedge Fund Titan's Principles

Published on 2011-03-03 08:58:00

Every once and awhile (a long while) F-TV produces a guest that provides a moment of economic and financial clarity for the mainstream. Hedge Fund Titan's Principles [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other conte

Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management

Published on 2011-03-02 12:07:00

BNN talks to one of the world's leading investor's and investment strategists Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management and finds out just how precious the metals are. Video: watch.bnn.ca : The Street : March 1, 2011 : Silver is Money The 2003-20

Boise County files for bankruptcy

Published on 2011-03-02 11:24:00

And, so it begins, driven not by politics (leadership) but rather market forces. In a move rare in the United States and perhaps unprecedented in Idaho, Boise County is filing for federal protection against a multimillion dollar judgment. “This w

The Average American Doesn't Stand A Chance

Published on 2011-03-02 10:38:00

So, while I take those commodity price increases very seriously, I don't think they are primarily a dollar phenomenon. In Testimony to House Panel, Ben Bernanke As a result, The Average American: Headline: HIGHLIGHTS-Bernanke's testimony to Hou

Real Economic Growth Remains Anemic

Published on 2011-03-02 09:45:00

Unexpected, or surprising strength, always grabs investors’ attention. It screams the right message – the economic recovery gains traction. Unfortunately, the analysis fails to reveal that liquidity (inflation) is driving growth. In other words

Headlines Sell Drama

Published on 2011-03-02 07:19:00

Headlines convey concern while a message from the market supports a coming turn. This is not revealed as an aid to time the market but rather an illustration of how drama rather than analysis sells headlines. While drama encourages clicks, it is of

Labor Market Still 'Sickly"

Published on 2011-03-02 06:52:00

Again, anyone suggesting an early end to quantitative easing (QE2) is delusional. Headline analysis will skip over this trend. Challenger, Grey, and Christmas Announced Layoffs (ALO) And YOY Change: Headline: Planned layoffs spike in February Don

Vicious Downward Cycle Intensifying

Published on 2011-03-01 16:49:00

The vicious downward cycle (see Jim's formula) that started that started in 2001 and rematerialized in 2008 is beginning to intensify in 2011. This suggests an acceleration in the trend toward a lower standard of living for Americans as the shockwave

Ohio union plan like Wisconsin draws protests

Published on 2011-03-01 14:25:00

Are domestic protests, civil in comparson to their international counterparts, any less significant in terms of social and economic consequences despite the lighter media coverage? The markets say no. Headline: Ohio union plan like Wisconsin draws p

Mailbox

Published on 2011-03-01 13:43:00

I would add that the gloves are off for gold and silver. This is happening for a reason. Eric When the fraudulent truth of OTC Derivatives surfaces it will lay waste to the international investment banks and distributors. Jim Subprime securities

An Island of Stablility With Cat 5 Hurricane Bearing Down On It

Published on 2011-03-01 12:09:00

The Yen described as a traditional island of safety? Investors will find no safety in any island (safe haven) with a category 5 'monetary' hurricane bearing down on it. People will always view the world according to their biases, so arguing against t

Between the Lines Analysis of TIC Data Reveals A Market In Turmoil

Published on 2011-03-01 09:08:00

The frequency of revisions within the TIC data series suggests a paper market in turmoil. One would never know that from the headline interpretations. The revisions are becoming so frequent that historical comparisons are becoming increasingly diffic

Mailbox

Published on 2011-02-28 14:57:00

Roman, The Romans took from the "barbarians" because they could. The Europeans took from the Native Americans because they could. $30 billion is pocket change for a world saddled with hundreds of trillions of failing and largely unrecognized debt.

The Worst Assumption - This Time Will Be Different

Published on 2011-02-28 13:55:00

Apparently lessons from history are forgotten once the book is closed. Or, perhaps, the ego makes us think that this time will be different. The prohibition of alcohol from 1920 to 1933 did not stop its consumption in the United States. A black mark

Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash

Published on 2011-02-28 12:44:00

Don't count on it. The state of housing is often quite different than picture painted by headline interpretations. The game of perception often suggests that the worse is over in the real estate market. It is not. New home sales continue to contract

Long Term Secular Trend In Stocks

Published on 2011-02-28 09:24:00

TA driven predictions/forecasts that do not consider long-term secular trends and cycles tend to pick up only trend "noise". Trend noise never catches major inflection points. Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index (LCSCAI) and Z Scores from P

The Dollar Lost Its Safe Haven Status A Long Time Ago

Published on 2011-02-28 08:39:00

While the talking heads and various experts are busy talking up the dollar, they ignore the message coming from the market. Contrary to consensus interpretation, it’s a message of weakness. International and domestic political upheaval should be

Madoff to NY magazine: Government a Ponzi scheme

Published on 2011-02-28 07:33:00

Wall Street swindler Bernard Madoff said in a magazine interview published Sunday that new regulatory reform enacted after the recent national financial crisis is laughable and that the federal government is a Ponzi scheme. "The whole new regulatory

Retail Longs Flushed From Natural Gas

Published on 2011-02-26 15:30:00

As expected, retail longs are being aggressively flushed from the long side. Connected money continues to accumulate into weakness. The market awaits a technical trigger while behind the scenes money reallocates from weak to strong. Natural Gas (UNG

State spending cuts slow US economic growth in Q4

Published on 2011-02-25 11:09:00

Balance the budget and ignore the cries of "save me" from the public? These are dangerous choices. Deeper spending cuts by state and local governments weighed down U.S. economic growth in the final three months of last year. The government's new es

Identify Secular Trends

Published on 2011-02-25 11:00:00

Bob, don't let short-term headline noise obstruct the long-term, secular message from the market. Do not wait for public recognition. It always comes way too late. (1) Identify (2) Trade in Sympathy with it Regards, Eric West Texas Intermediate

Patience Is Need At A Time Of Impatience

Published on 2011-02-25 07:19:00

Looks like a step towards social polarization. Will curtailing collective bargaining rights solve the problem? Will balancing State budgets solve the problem? The answer is no to both. To quote a common phrase, it's all about the debt, stupid. This

Beast Prowling And Public Sleeping

Published on 2011-02-25 07:19:00

The gold to silver ratio illustrates a cyclical shift from gold to silver since 1991. This cycle has showed periods and of ebb (1998-2003) and flow (1991-1998 and 2003-2008). A break of the 1998 low would imply the follow: (1) a retest of the 1968 lo

Housing Will Remain Weak For Years (Decades)

Published on 2011-02-24 09:49:00

The state of housing is often quite different than picture painted by headline interpretations. The game of perception often suggests that the worse is over in the real estate market. It is not. New home sales continue to contract as supply swamps de

The Message From The Oil Market

Published on 2011-02-24 08:09:00

Bob's end game interpretation, while likely viewed as 'crazy talk' by the mainstream, is not so far-fetched. In time Bob's price target will viewed as way too conservative. Regards, Eric West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (OIL): Eric, Over the y

Divergences and Nonconfirmations Provide Warnings

Published on 2011-02-24 08:03:00

The evolution of a top can only described as a process. Divergences and nonconfirmations tend to provide warnings before the breaks. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CNFAI) and S&P 500 Average Economic Activity Slower in January Led by d

State Budget Woes Ensure QE to Infinity

Published on 2011-02-23 18:59:00

How many years will it take for the Great Recession to be recognized as another depression by excessive debt? It is certain to be long after that fact. Clearly, the media coverage of the financial woes and the social consequences of the solutions pro

Social Unrest in Greece Continues

Published on 2011-02-23 17:09:00

The weaker players will be forced out of the EU. This will unexpectedly strengthen the Euro relative to other paper. Relative paper strength does not turn junk into gold. Warning - content is graphic. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my

Saudi king back home, orders $37 billion in handouts

Published on 2011-02-23 16:14:00

Smart money is watching Saudi Arabia. Saudi King Abdullah returned home on Wednesday after a three-month medical absence and unveiled benefits for Saudis worth some $37 billion in an apparent bid to insulate the world's top oil exporter from an Arab

US govt agrees to supply coins

Published on 2011-02-23 12:55:00

You can't make this s(h*t)tuff up. It gives new meaning to an old phrase - out of the frying pan and into the fire. Zimbabweans are substituting one form of hyperinflation for another. Perhaps, the problem lies in the printing press that backs both c

Nervousness In The Oil Market

Published on 2011-02-23 11:47:00

The Internet, following in the steps of major technological advances such as the printing press, invented by Johannes Gutenberg around 1440, has made the world a lot smaller. It has also been the great levelier of men and women across the globe. The

Swimming Against the Secular Current

Published on 2011-02-23 10:19:00

Few traders/investors have the skills necessary to ‘time’ short-term reactions within secular trends. Even the 'best of the best' often struggle securing consistent profit scalping the dominant trend. It’s also important to note that anticipati

Big Money Woes Federal, State, and Local Levels

Published on 2011-02-23 08:06:00

Federal, State, and local governments all face big money woes with few political ‘solutions’ that will be acceptable to the public. The end result will be a reduction in the standard of living for those without protection. Headline: Emanuel face

Follow The Money In the Treasury Auctions

Published on 2011-02-23 06:54:00

There’s always a treasury auction around the next corner with America's propensity to deficit spend. Watch not only demand (bid-to-cover) but also who's participating. One day probably in the not too distant future an auction will be held and no bu

Divergences Convey A Message

Published on 2011-02-22 14:39:00

Interpetations left to the readers. Tanzanian Rty Explr Co (TRE): [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Decline In Housing Is Not Over

Published on 2011-02-22 14:06:00

The crash in US housing since 2005, while substantial and painful, is not over. Ignore government and third party data and time series. Interpretations from them never supercede the message from the markets. S&P Homebuilders (HB) to Gold Ratio:

It's Always Been About the Economy (An Economy Saddled With Debt)

Published on 2011-02-22 13:59:00

Social discontent grows as economic reality of excessive debt burdens manifests itself into lower standard of livings for all. There's always been a fine line between protest and riot. People that believe that have nothing to loose tend to cross it.

Money Moves Into Gold and Silver

Published on 2011-02-22 13:30:00

Money continues to move into gold and silver as a result of currency devaluation throughout the globe. Increased tension within the middle east is nothing more than a convenient, headline excuse. Headline: Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Silver Bets as Mi

The Market Likes Copper

Published on 2011-02-22 10:02:00

Copper, unlike the consumer price index (CPI) which easily substitutes hamburger with cat food to combat rising prices, doesn’t have many alternatives. Ever wonder why it's getting harder to find copper pennies in circulation? Smart money has been

In The News

Published on 2011-02-22 08:48:00

Dangerous stuff. Headline: Iranian naval vessels enter Suez Canal Two Iranian naval vessels entered the Suez Canal on Tuesday en route to Syria, officials said, the first time in three decades that Tehran has sent military ships through the strateg

The Bond Market Does Not Back Mild Inflation

Published on 2011-02-22 07:19:00

If that were the case, why does the long term US government and corporate long bonds to gold ratio look like a ski slope? The gold market is sending a message that headline misdirection prevents many from seeing. Long-Term U.S. Government Bonds Tota

Gaddafi on the run: Dictator may already have fled and be on his way to Venezuela after Libyan air force attacks civilians

Published on 2011-02-21 15:53:00

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has fled Libya and may be heading for Venezuela, William Hague said today. The Foreign Secretary said he had seen 'information' that suggests Gaddafi is on his way to the South American country - as Libya was up in flame

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