Blog Feed: Eric De Groot's Insights

If household income was taxed at 100%, interest payments on existing debt would be addressed. Debt monetization or QE to infinity is no longer a policy choice. It's a necessity unless a self-sustaining economic recovery materializes from the sea of centralized liquidity. Headline: Real federal deficit dwarfs official tally The typical American household would have paid nearly all of its... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Targeting The Flow of Money To Reduce The Deficit

Published on 2012-05-24 12:13:00

Big brother needs beer money for the endless summer party and will show no remorse about sticking his hand in little brother's pocket for it. Those that think that it stops here (new tolls and taxes and endless fee increases) are probably spending too much at big brother's party. > read more

Waiting for Panic In Equities

Published on 2012-05-24 09:33:00

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Euro zone officials agree to prepare for Greek exit scenario

Published on 2012-05-23 10:57:00

The markets and actions of Greek people discount reality better than any political discussion. Headline: Euro zone officials agree to prepare for Greek exit scenario May 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone officials have agreed that each euro zone country must prepare an individual contingency plan in the eventuality that Greece decides to leave the single currency area, two eurozone officials said... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Beating The Grass To Startle The Snakes

Published on 2012-05-23 10:33:00

In the past I often wrote that the invisible hand beating the grass to startle the snakes;The snakes are the weak handed holders of gold and silver. The trading funds and retail money snakes are scattering in the grass as I write. The surge in spreading activity (SA - red line) from 20% in late March to 71% while the diffusion index climbs above 85% (DI - blue line) reveals their growing... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

S&P 500 Technical Review

Published on 2012-05-23 09:19:00

The red dots on the NYSE composite illustrate statistical spiks in the TRIN (chart 1). > read more

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) And S&P 500

Published on 2012-05-23 06:45:00

Negative divergences tend to setup equity declines. No divergences yet. Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and S&P 500 AVG ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Greyerz - Customer Shocked “Allocated” Gold Not in Swiss Bank

Published on 2012-05-22 12:40:00

The risk of have gold in the banking system is major. > read more

JPMorgan Chase loss only going to get worse

Published on 2012-05-21 20:55:00

While market force should open a can of whoop ass on JPMorgan, they'll likely be contained by the financial world's version of mutual assured destruction known as "too big to fail." The derivatives closet is bulging with so many skeletons it no longer latches shut. The number being bandied about now is closer to a range of $6 billion to $7 billion, according to several people working on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Poverty Increasing Among Retirees

Published on 2012-05-21 15:11:00

A consequence of QE to infinity is increasing poverty rates for anyone without rising inflation-adjusted incomes. Retirees dependent on fixed incomes and government subsidies to maintain current standard of livings are particularly vulnerable. Headline: Poverty Increasing Among Retirees Growing numbers of older Americans are spending their retirement years in poverty, according to a... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Time For Blasphemy? About Damn Time

Published on 2012-05-21 09:26:00

Turn off the TV, ignore the headlines, follow the money, and open your mind to the possibilities. What if commodities are NOT DEAD (see chart 1 and 2). Chart 1: Australian Dollar (FXA) And Australian Dollar Diffusion Index (DI) Chart 2: CRB Spot And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change What if Jim's suggestion that consensus expectation of a significantly lower Euro might be wrong. ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Gold's Aging D-Wave Decline

Published on 2012-05-21 07:51:00

The long and powerful C-wave advance of 2009-2011 has been followed by a D-wave decline of similar proportions. The invisible hand continues redistribute control of the trend from weak to strong hands. 20% percentile or less is considered statistically oversold. > read more

The Pursuit of Balance Finds Few Masters

Published on 2012-05-18 20:17:00

How many investors motivated largely by fear and highly motivated misinformation campaign dumped their gold and silver positions last week? Jim is absolutely right - > read more

China May Surpass India as Biggest Gold Market, WGC Says

Published on 2012-05-18 09:26:00

Follow the money from West to East. China is becoming dominant player and holder of gold. Headline: China May Surpass India as Biggest Gold Market, WGC Says Gold demand in China may surge as much as 30 percent this year as rising incomes boost consumption, helping the country topple India as the world’s largest bullion market on an annual basis, according to the World Gold Council. Demand,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Health care costs for family of 4 top $20,000

Published on 2012-05-18 09:17:00

American families cannot absorb this type of burden without a significant reduction in their standard of livings. That's already happening. QE to infinity, the policy of last resort, will push health care costs higher. This suggests that socialized medicine will become the only viable health care option for the masses. The toxic mixture of rising debt burdens and aggressive currency... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

USA Jobs Reality

Published on 2012-05-17 13:19:00

13,000 here, 25,000 there, and suddenly it all starts to add up. Political rhetoric may live in fantasy land, but the markets do not. Headline: Postal Service announces mass layoffs The United States Postal Service announced today it will close 48 mail processing and distribution centers this summer, cutting 13,000 jobs. The Shallowford Road center was marked for closure earlier this... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Cause and Effect Control Gold

Published on 2012-05-17 12:15:00

The heavy hand emerged around $1665. Rising gold lease spreads as price declines illustrate the unwinding of cause and effect. > read more

Stay Balanced And Employ Discpline of Thought

Published on 2012-05-17 09:46:00

I absolutely agree, Jim. The Federal reserve has not failed any sitting Administration as long as I can remember. Unfortunately, I cannot remember much past Jimmy Carter. Jim is right, the Fed's ability to stare down the market is finite. The steady decay in the private sector credit trends illustrated in the table below has quantitative easing (QE) to infinity written all over it. Total... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Japanese pension fund switches to gold

Published on 2012-05-16 12:34:00

One of many that will switch into gold as a means of reducing its sovereign risk. Even a small global reallocation into gold will pressure already an already tight physical market. Thank god for those "bullion backed" paper ETFs. Without them, where would the new supply come from? Pension fund reallocation into gold are most likely replacing one risk (sovereign) with another (paper claims to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Soros Talks Everyone Go Fetal, He Acts And No One Notices

Published on 2012-05-16 10:02:00

Two things happen when Soros says anything remotely negative about gold. First, the headline and laptop experts organize to parse every word in order to support the "gold top" thesis. Second, the gold community immediately assumes the fetal position. Now, when Soros acts bullishly towards gold, a key distinction from talks, it's generally the silent treatment from all. This is how I like... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Follow the Money Not Intentions

Published on 2012-05-16 09:24:00

The recipients of free money are rarely those originally targeted by the policy. That's how it works. As Jim often says QE will approach infinity (because it must), redirection and abuses will become the norm rather than the exception. Headline: Needy States Use Housing Aid Cash to Plug Budgets Hundreds of millions of dollars meant to provide a little relief to the nation’s struggling... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Greeks Withdraw Nearly $1 Billion From Local Banks

Published on 2012-05-16 06:42:00

The market is demanding liquidity while policies and politician counter with austerity. The mismatch in expectations is eroding confidence both on a domestic and international scale. Headline: Greeks Withdraw Nearly $1 Billion From Local Banks Greek depositors withdrew 700 million euros ($900 million) from the nation's local banks recently, said President Karolos Papoulias, though the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Greece Gets Hint of Leeway From Euro Officials

Published on 2012-05-15 12:30:00

Liquidity floats all boats until the public can no longer afford to eat. Headline: Greece Gets Hint of Leeway From Euro Officials European governments hinted at giving Greece extra time to meet budget-cut targets, as long as the financially stricken country’s feuding politicians put together a ruling coalition committed to austerity. Calling talk of a Greek pullout from the euro “nonsense”... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and mor [..] > read more

California wants to tax rich to solve budget woes

Published on 2012-05-15 12:28:00

The rich, high mobile, will simply leave California. Headline: California wants to tax rich to solve budget woes NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Tax the rich! That's how California Governor Jerry Brown wants to solve the state's growing budget crisis that now nears $16 billion. The governor laid out his revised spending plan Monday. It would slash $8.3 billion from almost every part of the state's... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Emotional Bias Drive Short-Term Market Interpretations

Published on 2012-05-15 10:04:00

The retest of long-term resistance as support is normal market action. > read more

Positive Divergences Suggests Downside Force Weakening In Equities

Published on 2012-05-15 09:02:00

Positive divergences between price, standard norm(E) and McClellan Oscillator(E), and statistically oversold readings (Std Norm < -1.96) often anticipate tradable bottoms (see chart). Statistically oversold readings, standard norm reading exceeding +/- 1.96, often coincide with the emotional extremes of trend exhaustion. The market should attempt a rally after the first technical... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Diffusion Index Readings And Seismic Activity In Gold And Silver

Published on 2012-05-14 10:34:00

Ephrem, Correct. High diffusion index (DI) readings anticipated tradable bottoms, but these advances fizzled due to the distribution of paper control behind the scenes. The "earthquakes before the price eruption" signal analyzes the distribution of control by the various players - some players being more important than others. It generates an earthquake (signal) when conditions turn favorable... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Earthquakes Before The Price Eruption In Silver Coming

Published on 2012-05-14 07:27:00

Silver will be the key to timing precious metals in the coming weeks. > read more

The Invisible Hand Manages Gold & Silver

Published on 2012-05-13 07:37:00

The public is sprinting away from gold faster than shoppers vying for the day after Thanksgiving door buster deals moments after the front doors are opened. > read more

Gold's High Body Count Event Stretching From New York To Beijini

Published on 2012-05-13 07:00:00

I suspect gold traders have been salivating over gold's recent earthquake activity. > read more

Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Gives Up U.S. Citizenship Before IPO

Published on 2012-05-12 07:40:00

The main limitation of socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money to spend. If we taxed the rich at 100%, it wouldn't even come close to balancing the real budget. Besides, the rich are not stupid. The increasing popularity of the trend below suggests they wouldn't stick around long for that. Headline: Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Gives Up U.S. Citizenship Before... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Earthquake Before The Price Eruption In Gold

Published on 2012-05-11 18:29:00

Mount St. Helens experienced a magnitude 4.2 earthquake on March 20th 1980. By March 27, steam started venting on March 27th. Yet, how many residents of Skamania County, Washington, U.S. anticipated the following: On May 18, with little warning, a second earthquake, of magnitude 5.1, triggered a massive collapse of the north face of the mountain. It was the largest known debris avalanche in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Invisible Hand's Influence On Short-Term Price

Published on 2012-05-11 13:27:00

Price tends to stumble when the invisible hand pushes. If you're a efficient market theorist, don't bother clicking the table below. Table: Gold and Silver Price and Composite Lease Spread ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Leading Formula Provides A Different Look

Published on 2012-05-11 08:15:00

The leading formula, calculated from tax withheld rather than total receipts, provides a slightly different perspective of economic activity in the United States. > read more

The Formula's Trend Will Anticipate The Next Economic Shock

Published on 2012-05-11 07:00:00

Failure of the formula's latest and greatest counter trend rally that saves the day will only increase the pressure for another one of Bernanke's famous helicopter money drop (see chart). > read more

Time for 'Helicopter Money Drops'

Published on 2012-05-10 11:16:00

The push to cover silver and gold shorts late in the D-wave implies focused intention. Focused intention tends to precede breaking headline news that shocks both investors and the public. Headline: Citi’s Buiter: Time for 'Helicopter Money Drops' Call Street is starting to sound a little spooked. Citigroup [C 30.82 0.37 (+1.22%) ] on Wednesday issued a client note that just a few... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..] > read more

Kicking The Can Is The Only Option

Published on 2012-05-10 11:04:00

Debt, driven either by necessity or apathy, continues to rise while nearly 50% of Americans say they don't contribute to their retirement plans. Central planners kick the can down the economic road because it’s the only option at this point in the cycle. Severe austerity would cripple a large percentage of the public conditioned by decades of socialism. Headline: 49% of Americans aren't... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Spain nationalizes fourth-largest bank as crisis deepens

Published on 2012-05-10 10:42:00

The derivative pile is massive, highly intertwined throughout the global financial system and will be protected at all cost. Headline: Spain nationalizes fourth-largest bank as crisis deepens MADRID – Spain's government will effectively nationalize the nation's fourth largest bank to shore up the hurting banking sector and try to convince investors the country doesn't need a bailout like... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Wall Street slides 1 percent at open

Published on 2012-05-09 12:19:00

While price could conceivably trade lower, it has once again reached a statistical extreme similar to August and October 2011. > read more

Austerity or Stimulus? Americans Want BOTH, Survey Says

Published on 2012-05-09 11:34:00

Who doesn't want to have one's cake and eat it too? Ever wonder why the can (problem) continues to be kicked down the economic road? Regardless of who becomes President, the economic and political backdrop is still complete FUBAR. While infinite liquidity carries specific consequences, they're still politically and socially palatable when compared against other alternatives. Aggressive... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Trading/Investing with Singular Focus of Mind and Discpline

Published on 2012-05-09 09:21:00

The only things I have come to learn over my years in the markets are the following: Follow the money and ignore the rest. A singular (internal) voice is need to ignore the rest. An internal voice is created by replacing emotion with discipline. Big money is made following secular trend. > read more

Holy Cow Jim!

Published on 2012-05-08 14:26:00

The invisible hand guides the weak (hands) to the elevator shaft with an open hand and smile. Today's panic masks a steady reversal of the money flows that setup this decline. Gold tends to bottom when composite lease spreads turn positive. Chart: Gold Lease Spread Composite (GLSC) and Gold Price, USD A closer look reveals why the invisible hand is smiling. > read more

Negative On Equities Bandwagon Filling Up

Published on 2012-05-08 11:55:00

Booking trading profits should have been done in April 2011, maybe October 2011, and certainly early March 2012. > read more

Invisible Hand Smiling Again

Published on 2012-05-08 09:32:00

The invisible hand which repositioned for a paper attack in gold and silver weeks ago is smiling again today. > read more

Never Mind Europe. Worry About India

Published on 2012-05-08 07:00:00

India, one of the world's largest economies, has been struggling without much recognition since 2008. > read more

Americans: Too broke to go bankrupt

Published on 2012-05-07 12:54:00

What's next, the return of debtors' prison? > read more

Options Are Enzymes Of Paper World

Published on 2012-05-07 08:57:00

Options are the enzymes of the paper world. They catalyze catalyze high energy reactions within biological entropy limits. > read more

'Civilized People Don't Buy Gold': Berkshire's Munger

Published on 2012-05-07 07:11:00

Regardless of the rhetoric, the number of barbarians at the gate of uncertainty grows with each passing day. > read more

Birth/Death Model Smaller Role In Weak Job Recovery

Published on 2012-05-06 21:34:00

Nonfarm payrolls are seasonally adjusted while jobs created or lost from the birth/death model are not. This makes interpretations from month to month comparisons of the two time series spotty at best. A comparison of similar time periods not only removes influence of seasonal adjustments but also helps to quantify why the current job recovery is weak in comparison to the previous... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Victorious French left reclaims the Bastille

Published on 2012-05-06 19:25:00

Oops! A Greek and French Rejection of German-led austerity. > read more

Hey Gold Share Investors, Smoke Doesn't Allows Mean Fire

Published on 2012-05-04 12:15:00

Ignite a smoke grenade and scream fire in crowded movie theater and patrons will run first and ask logical questions second. This is exactly what's going on the gold shares, except substitute smoke grenade with paper supply and fire with "head and shoulders top". I rarely show this chart, but I must to support the following point. Compare multi-decade breakout of 1961 with that of 2010. If... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Pop The Hood And Examine The Engine, Are Kidding Me?

Published on 2012-05-04 09:08:00

Ignore the jobless rate; it's more a product of Disney's Imagineering unit than statistical reality. The real unemployment rate is much higher than reported. > read more

Waiting For The Next Earthquake In Silver

Published on 2012-05-04 07:59:00

Falling lease spreads continue to reflect the heavy hand of control leaning on the price of silver (see chart 1). Chart: Silver Lease Spread Composite (SLSC) and Silver Price, USD Why? A large short position in the future and options market needs to be covered. This can be done into either weakness or strength. The former keeps the short standing upright with money in pocket,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Gold Shares Performance Relative To Gold Nearing Historic Extremes

Published on 2012-05-03 20:00:00

How bad has the gold shares under performance to gold been since 2010? > read more

Don't Get Caught Chasing Your Tail

Published on 2012-05-03 14:59:00

Testing previous resistance as support after the breakout is nothing more than ebb and flow within a market. Those trading short-term technical patterns better be expert traders, because nothing has reversed the long-term breakout and secular up trend. Double tops, heads and shoulders formations, etc, offer only limited reentry guidance. > read more

Invisible Hand Abusing Silver Investors

Published on 2012-05-03 12:11:00

A short-term peak in the composite lease spread on 4/3 suggested that the invisible hand had started leaning on silver again. The price of silver was $31.98. As of 4/24 composite lease spreads and price of silver continue to decline. As I wrote Monday, "Negative lease spreads tend to reverse into weakness unless the trend becomes uncontrollable." The invisible hand remains in complete... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Labor Market's Influence On The Dollar & Gold

Published on 2012-05-03 09:02:00

Focus on the trends and cycles rather than individual data points. > read more

Factory Orders Post Biggest Decline in Three Years

Published on 2012-05-02 16:13:00

Does an unexpected surge in the PMI, followed by the biggest decline in factory orders in three years the next day really matter to service and consumption driven economy? Headline: Factory Orders Post Biggest Decline in Three Years The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods dropped 1.5 percent after a revised 1.1 percent rise in February. Economists had forecast orders... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Wall Street climbs as economy fears ease

Published on 2012-05-02 07:00:00

Small and large cap stocks total return indices already set new all-time highs in February and March, respectively. Chart 1: Small Cap Stocks Total Return Index (SCSTRI) and Z Scores of Secular Trends Chart 2: Large Cap Stocks Total Return Index (LCSTRI) and Z Scores of Secular Trends Headline: Wall Street climbs as economy fears ease NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rallied on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

States Scaling Back Worker Pensions to Save Money

Published on 2012-05-01 13:50:00

This is only the beginning. Headline: States Scaling Back Worker Pensions to Save Money Neil Carpenter took a pay cut when he accepted a job as a Louisiana state accountant more than 12 years ago, but he figured he would make up for the loss with a retirement check that would guarantee long-term financial security for him and his family. Now the 41-year-old finds his life plan teetering... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Sell in May and Go Away: Will It Work Again?

Published on 2012-05-01 09:55:00

The ebb and flow between supply and demand can often be described in threes. For example, the three drives (pushes) to a top (or bottom) dynamic is often followed by a reversal that returns price to the point of origination. The interplay between supply and demand, often in threes, is responsible for the formation of widely recognized trading patterns such as heads and shoulders... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Invisible Hand Pushing At Silver Again

Published on 2012-04-30 09:18:00

Silver, a smaller and less monetary-driven market than gold, feels the effects of the invisible hand more violently than gold. A falling lease spread composite since late March reveals the hand's reemergence around $31.75. Negative lease spreads tend to reverse into weakness unless the trend becomes uncontrollable. Chart 1: Silver Lease Spread Composite (SLSC) and Silver Price,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Invisible Hand Executes The Weak Gold Policy

Published on 2012-04-28 21:45:00

Gold and silver's surging diffusion indices (DI) illustrates strong accumulation into weakness since 2011. Statistically concentrated readings above 60, either single or clustered, reveals the presence of of what is often referred to as the invisible hand on Insights and what Jim recently described as the weak gold policy. We also have a weak gold policy, which is not to depress the price of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Economy in U.S. Grew Less Than Forecast in First Quarter

Published on 2012-04-27 11:01:00

While it's certain some will be screaming - the consumer is back, don't let their hype blind you to the truth that the US economy remains dangerously unbalanced. Personal consumption expenditures (spending) sacrifices future (investment) for present (consumption) growth. As of Q1 2012, spending as a percentage of GDP has reached an all-time high of 71.25%. > read more

Postal Service bill faces roadblocks

Published on 2012-04-27 10:19:00

Delay and rescue is inevitable as austerity is the driving force behind changes in leadership. Headline: Postal Service bill faces roadblocks WASHINGTON (CNNMoney) -- A Senate bill passed this week to rescue the indebted U.S. Postal Service is drawing fire from key agency officials and House Republican leaders. And it's looking increasingly unlikely that the House and Senate will agree on... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Battle Between Paper Supply and Physical Demand Intensifying

Published on 2012-04-27 09:02:00

I would like to share a brief exchange I had yesterday with Jim. JIM: The COMEX will violate their contract before they allow a squeeze. That is CERTAIN ERIC: Isn't that tantamount to saying there's no way we can delivery on any of the outstanding contracts? Sounds like John Law shell game to me. JIM: Be assured. it will happen. ERIC: I have no doubt. The third count turned... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Spain Cut by S&P for 2nd Time This Year on Banks, Economy

Published on 2012-04-27 07:02:00

The fifth largest economy in the Euro Zone is contracting again. The IMF raised $420 billion to be thrown at Europe, including Spain, that continues to chant "we don't need rescue fund." Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns said the same thing in 2008. Too bad Spain simply cannot print money as a solution to its problems. > read more

A Trend Is More Important Than A Single Data Point

Published on 2012-04-27 07:00:00

Yesterday's durable good report revealed that real business core spending slowed to 1.2% year-over-year (yoy). This annual gain, the slowest reading since March 2010, represents a continuation of an up trend deceleration that began in August 2010. > read more

Tension Rising at the Fed Accompanied By Deaf Ears

Published on 2012-04-26 12:52:00

Stock Market Rally Confirmed By CFNAI

Published on 2012-04-26 08:27:00

As long as the national activity index and equities remain in gear, no long-term negative divergences between them, probabilities favor higher stock prices. > read more

Shorts Now Trapped & Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000

Published on 2012-04-25 20:18:00

Jim Sinclair, Must Listen 4/24/12 Kingworldnews.com Interview: Shorts Now Trapped & Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000 ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will handle the donations.Thank... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Mexico Raised Gold Reserves in March, IMF Data Shows

Published on 2012-04-25 16:03:00

Mexico and Russia announced an increase in their gold reserves in March. China will tell us they've been buying when they want us to know. Headline: Mexico Raised Gold Reserves in March, IMF Data Shows Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March as nations including Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan increased their holdings of the metal,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2012-04-25 13:43:00

Eric: > read more

Gold drops sharply after Fed stands pat

Published on 2012-04-25 13:28:00

Did you actually expect headlines to say Gold rose sharply after Fed stands pat? > read more

Gold Stocks: Comparing 2012 to 1976 Today

Published on 2012-04-25 10:14:00

Hindsight analysis is always easier than forecasting. Probably why talking heads are a dime a dozen and billionaires are scare. A couple of years from now, the talking heads will be comparing 2012 to 1976 in gold and gold stocks. Chart: Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index to S&P Gold Mining Ratio (LCSCAIGPMR) and Z Score of Secular... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Farwell Factory Jobs, Hello Service Sector

Published on 2012-04-25 09:10:00

The farewell to U.S. factories despite a well-established, obvious trend continues to surprise the public. The transition from manufacturing, goods-producing to service-service producing economy has been an on-going process since 1953 (see chart 1). While hamburger flipping and hospitality jobs appear to an amiable employment solution for the US, it simply cannot generate the tax revenues... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Spend those gift cards, especially if you live in New Jersey

Published on 2012-04-24 13:02:00

Not long ago American raised flags with the words Don't Tread on Me inscribed on them. Americans distracted by their iPads and mobile devices barely notice snake taking a stomping from big brother today. Society once considered the proposal below as stealing rather than good business. Headline: Spend those gift cards, especially if you live in New Jersey Here's another reason not to allow... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Missouri's sound-money bill is really a protest

Published on 2012-04-24 12:40:00

Metallica, Fuel, Reload (1997) Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire, Gimme that which I desire, Ooh! Headline: Missouri's sound-money bill is really a protest When the dreaded hyperinflation arrives, the Missouri House wants Missourians to be ready. Last week, the legislative body passed the Missouri Sound Money Act of 2012, which declares U.S. gold and silver coins to be legal tender in the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Include The Fed As Well

Published on 2012-04-24 12:29:00

Members within both the European (Spain, Greece, and so on.) and US (Illinois, Michigan, and so on) Union are beginning to struggle beyond MOPE's ability to repair it. The release of the Fed minutes, 'interpreted' as an improving economy and ebbing debt crisis reducing probability of further QE(n), sent gold and silver down the elevator shaft about two seconds after its release. > read more

Concentrated Money Flows & The Role of The Invisible Hand

Published on 2012-04-24 09:24:00

Volatile D-wave bottoms, search website for further discussion of the gold and silver A-B-C-D cycle, tend to follow 1-2-3 money flow extremes in the precious metals ETFs. I talked about this setup as far back as January 2011. The paper ETFs (SLV and GLD) born under the guise of convenience have become potent weapons in the game of control often characterized by the actions of the invisible... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

1-2-3 Setup in Gold Turned Green Yesterday

Published on 2012-04-24 07:00:00

The third hook in the 1-2-3 setup turned green yesterday. Green shadings, illustrated in the chart below, represent statistically concentrated outflows in the largest gold ETF (GLD). Extreme outflows are rare and tend to precede significant intermediate-term gold rallies. Chart: London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Bing administration says 2,500 job cuts, privatization will save Detroit $250M

Published on 2012-04-23 15:14:00

The Dutch people have been reminded that austerity changes leadership. This principle knows no prejudice or lines of nationality. Headline: Bing administration says 2,500 job cuts, privatization will save Detroit $250M Detroit Mayor Dave Bing’s staff laid out a city budget this morning that cuts more than 2,500 jobs in an effort to shave $250 million from its annual expenses as the city... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Best Reason in the World to Buy Gold

Published on 2012-04-23 15:01:00

Have no doubt, emotions generated by short-term price action will be influencing investor decision-making a hundred years from now. We may have substituted iPad for the telegraph over the past hundred years, but we're still fairly lousy traders as a species. The real world makes decision based on reality rather than perceptions generated by emotions. Well, at least the real world that stays in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Real, Jobs-Creating Economy Remains Weak

Published on 2012-04-23 07:00:00

Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Using Fear-Induced Churn To Build Tommorrow's Profits

Published on 2012-04-22 10:39:00

Pessimism and fear reign as the gold stocks test previous resistance as support. > read more

Gold Is Not Dead

Published on 2012-04-21 12:37:00

Market experts continue to pronounced gold as "dead" and primed for another sharp, elevator-shaft style decline. These declines, highly coordinated and professionally executed during the D-wave cycle, tend to be preceded by sharp contractions in the relative (real) lease spreads. > read more

Money Flowing Into Gold and Silver on Weakness

Published on 2012-04-21 09:00:00

Money has been flowing into silver and gold as they bounce along the bottom. Chart 1: Silver London P.M Fixed and the Silver Diffusion Index (DI) A gold DI reading > 60% suggests statistical concentrated (again). Chart 2: Gold London P.M Fixed and Gold Diffusion Index (DI) Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

When Will The Pain End?

Published on 2012-04-20 09:24:00

Many investors are likely wondering when the pain of the D-wave distribution will end in the gold and silver markets on yet another options expiration in April. The invisible hand which provided the paper fuel for the most recent decline has been reversing those positions into price weakness. The steady increase in real silver and gold lease spreads toward zero illustrates one aspect of this... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

U.S. Retail Sales Climb More Than Forecast on Jobs: Economy

Published on 2012-04-19 09:20:00

American continue to "shop til they drop" despite the fact that median retirement account balances as of 2007 with the stock market at or near all-highs was a mere $45,000. > read more

Liquidity Will Support But Won't Save Housing

Published on 2012-04-19 07:00:00

Liquidity lifts all boats until a break in confidence says it can't. > read more

U.S. bows to Wall Street on derivatives

Published on 2012-04-18 12:19:00

You'd have to have been living living under a rock over the past five years to be surprised by this decision. > read more

The Change Face of Infinite QE

Published on 2012-04-18 09:05:00

Additional funds to the IMF represent the change face of QE to infinity. > read more

Don't Confuse Headline Crises With A Full Blown Crisis

Published on 2012-04-18 07:00:00

A full blown crisis, as opposed mini headline crises easily handled by infinite liquidity, will be revealed by a flight of capital from Japanese, German (Europe), and US long bond markets. > read more

Paper to Cash Exchanges Would Be Accompanied By Loud BOOM

Published on 2012-04-17 13:35:00

Agreed. Paper exchanges and their key second derivative markets absorb demand and leverage paper attacks. Watch the spreads between bullion and paper markets swing from one statistical extreme to another before paper attacks to better understand why Jim screams BOOM! Chart: Silver London PM Fixed (SLVL) And SLVL to Silver ETF Ratio ZScores (SLVLSLVR), Monthly Dear Ian: Paper... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Wall Street climbs, boosted by earnings, Spain debt sale

Published on 2012-04-17 10:42:00

The blissful charade of headline interpretations never gets old. Wall Street climbs because liquidity lifts all boats, but the boosted earnings is the explanation investors want to read (believe). Headline: Wall Street climbs, boosted by earnings, Spain debt sale NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose at the open on Tuesday, with the Dow industrials climbing as much as 1 percent, as investors... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

D-Wave Declines in Gold Test Patience

Published on 2012-04-17 07:10:00

D-wave hooks form under a backdrop of fear and terminate when WA crosses above 50 percentile. Chart: London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Extremes, Divergences, and Art of Independent Thinking

Published on 2012-04-17 07:05:00

Extreme readings (green circles) followed by positive divergences in breadth and/trend energy relative to price generate bullish signals. > read more

Gold falls on euro jitters, silver stocks soar

Published on 2012-04-17 07:00:00

Everyone is a trader, but few are good at it. > read more

Small firms avoiding loans, citing slow recovery

Published on 2012-04-16 07:53:00

Repeat of the 1930's. Headline: Small firms avoiding loans, citing slow recovery NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Small firms are faring better, but they aren't seeing enough fortune ahead to justify taking on debt to grow. The slow pace of the economic recovery is to blame, because while consumer demand keeps growing, it just hasn't been strong enough for most firms to rationalize investing in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Rising Consumer Expectations Imply Higher Gold Prices

Published on 2012-04-16 07:48:00

But the measure of consumer expectations rose to 72.5 from 69.8, hitting its highest level since September 2009. Rising expectations has the media giddy about the prospects for future economic growth and the gold crowd huddled together in fear. While perception sets short-term reality, it does NOT control long-term market forces. The sovereign debt crisis, largely believed to be contained to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Invisible Hand Already Has Its Chair

Published on 2012-04-15 20:59:00

Keeping gold below $1800 is a formidable but doable challenge as long as investors don't do the unthinkable by standing for delivery in great numbers. Why would they do that? London taxes physical delivery at 20%. The COMEX expects all contracts, even those under duress, could be settled in cash. Yet, despite today's structural assurances history also tells us that nearly all paper trading... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Alabama county could hike rates to pay sewer debt: receiver

Published on 2012-04-12 09:20:00

States lacking the power of the printing press either raise taxes or default. Municipalities trying to stave off poor decision-making during expansion often try to pass tax increases into the teeth of a contraction. That is, until an angry crowd marches to the steps of the capital with pitchforks, drums, and signs suggesting something along the lines of ‘Up Yours!’ Headline: Alabama county... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..] > read more

Jobless claims cast cloud on labor market

Published on 2012-04-12 09:05:00

The labor market will become increasingly cloudy as the economic cycles kick-in. The Fed despite the pomp and circumstance surrounding it is just another market follower. > read more

The Formula Depicts Sluggish Economic Recovery

Published on 2012-04-12 07:59:00

The shallow, counter trend rally in US Federal Budget as % of GDP (or formula) depicts a sluggish, liquidity-driven economic recovery since 2010. A similar rally occurred from 2004 to 2007. A downside break of the consolidation pattern in 20013-2014 will likely anticipate the next global crisis event. Chart: US Federal Budget (Surplus or Deficit As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average) and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Sky Is Falling Indicator

Published on 2012-04-11 07:05:00

MOVB(E) is a proprietary, bounded momentum indicator adjusted by volatility. > read more

Creative Economic Perspective Elicits Market Responses

Published on 2012-04-11 07:00:00

The invisible hand is very good at using creative economic perspective (misdirection, misinformation, etc) to elicit market responses. Market responses such as covering paper shorts into price weakness in the gold market. The only way to challenge economic perspective is to attack it head on. Could the economic recovery have been considered strong before Friday's employment data? The... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Stocks, Spanish Bonds Drop as Treasuries, Yen Strengthen

Published on 2012-04-10 12:40:00

Who would have predicted falling stocks, rising Treasury prices and Yen? > read more

Path of Least Resistance Is Down

Published on 2012-04-10 10:25:00

A test and close above support (3/08 and 3/13 gaps) on shrinking volume will generate a bullish setup(s). Volume on 3/08 and 3/13 were 117 and 184 million, respectively. Bullish setups and technical divergences will illustrate the transition from distribution to accumulation. > read more

French economy grinds to a halt

Published on 2012-04-10 07:07:00

A combination of austerity, excessive debts, and political indecisiveness have been hampering economic growth in the European Union. > read more

Real Estate Recovery: Are We There Yet?

Published on 2012-04-10 07:00:00

A bottom in housing will likely exceed public and politicians expectations. While potential homeowners may have the desire to buy, lenders stripped of the ability "slice and dice" mortgage cash flows through the miracle of securitization are no longer eager to lend to them (see table). Real estate loans as a percentage of total bank credit which exceeded 42% in 2010 has fallen below 37%... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Meaning of Made In America Has Changed

Published on 2012-04-09 07:05:00

Public budgets have been decimated by today's phantom economic recovery. Public layoffs have intensified as tax revenues decreased and federal stimulus money ran out in 2009. Public sector employment as a percentage of nonfarm payrolls peaked 19.4% in 1975. Since the beginning of the great financial bust in 2000, public sector employment pushed to 17.7% by 2010; A feeble economic recovery... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

World food prices rise further, raising fears of unrest

Published on 2012-04-09 07:00:00

The trend for the CRB foodstuffs is up due to rising demand and aggressive currency devaluation across the globe. > read more

Employment gains slow, jobless rate drops

Published on 2012-04-06 09:08:00

The dollar's sharp bounce and drubbing in precious metals and mining shares precipitated from the interpretation that an improving economy had significantly reduced the probability of quantitative easing (QE3) going forward. After today's disappointing employment data, it's likely that this assumption will be challenged by the markets next week. Economic activity is either rising or falling at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Volume Reveals Difference Between Muscles And Inflated Balloons

Published on 2012-04-05 09:01:00

Volume reveals the difference between muscles and inflated balloons. > read more

"No Additional Stimulus Needed" Is An Illusion

Published on 2012-04-05 08:00:00

World stock markets fell Thursday after a weak Spanish bond auction inflamed concerns about the European debt crisis and hopes faded for more help for the U.S. economy from the Federal Reserve. How long can the Fed play the "no additional stimulus needed" card for the US when unlike any point in history the world's financial system is so highly interconnected? The Fed is already indirectly... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Third Hook Drops Like A Hammer On Gold

Published on 2012-04-04 14:23:00

Assuming no outflows (unlikely after today) and closing GLD price around 157.5, the ETF's total asset count or third "hook" drops like a hammer on already fragile confidence. This action certainly matches 2008's panic selling setup and is not unexpected after a strong C-wave advance. > read more

Panic Selling Engulfing Gold Shares

Published on 2012-04-04 13:34:00

Chip: [being spanked as part of Omega's initiation] Thank you, sir! May I have another?, Animal House (1978) > read more

Follow The Trends, Ignore the Noise

Published on 2012-04-04 07:12:00

The US, heavily debt laden herself, has become the driver of global economic growth while European economies circle the drain both individually and collectively? Yeah right! Meanwhile, gold and silver are pounded as the US dollar index test short-term technical support (charts 1 and 2). 1/25 swing low has been challenged hard several times. The sharp decline in volume during yesterday's... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

When Will The Sheeple Learn?

Published on 2012-04-04 07:00:00

Any investor that adjusting long-term investment strategy based on daily noise will find his pocket picked by the invisible hand. > read more

The next leg of gold’s bull run

Published on 2012-04-03 09:55:00

An individual, group, or country (hint China) not seeking the label of dumb as a post is highly unlikely to announce their intentions to buy gold. > read more

The new American household: 3 generations, 1 roof

Published on 2012-04-03 09:40:00

The definition of normal will change as Americans' standard of living continues to deteriorate. Headline: The new American household: 3 generations, 1 roof NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- As the economy continues to take a toll on consumers' finances, a growing number of people are discovering that becoming roommates with mom and dad, or a 20- or 30-something son or daughter, helps to ease some of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

A Bad Economy With Rising Equities

Published on 2012-04-03 07:00:00

A sharp downward trend in gold adjusted equities prices reflects Faber's description of a bad economy with rising equities. Chart 1: Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) AND DJTA to Gold Ratio (DJTAGOLDR) Headline: 'Massive Wealth Destruction' Is About to Hit Investors: Faber "I think that people should own some gold and I think that people should own some equities, because... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

More U.S. employers tie health insurance to medical tests

Published on 2012-04-02 10:18:00

The lawyers will have a field day with the inevitable invasion of privacy and discrimination lawsuits. Americans are not ready for this kind of health scrutiny. Headline: More U.S. employers tie health insurance to medical tests Once a year, employees of the Swiss Village Retirement Community in Berne, Ind., have a checkup that will help determine how much they pay for health coverage.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Market Will Be Well Positioned For Any Fed Policy Change

Published on 2012-04-01 17:00:00

The curtain of negative headlines hides bullish money flows in the bond and currency market. Yesterday, I suggested that Bill Gross's assertion that the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely hint at a third round of bond purchases, better known as "quantitative easing," at the coming meeting in Jackson Hole finds support in the bond market. The bond market diffusion index (DI), a cumulative measure... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Bullish Setup In Bonds Implies Official QE3?

Published on 2012-03-31 11:38:00

The bullish movement of money, i.e. bullish setups in the 30- and 10-year, supports Gross's suggestion that the Fed will hint at QE3 in April's policy meeting. The spike in the bond market diffusion index (DI), a measure of cumulative money flows across the yield curve, suggests something's up. Follow the message of the market and leave the experts to debate their opinions. Chart: US Treasury... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Equity Resistance Becomes Support

Published on 2012-03-30 11:46:00

Resistance has become support says the market to the equity market bears. Chart 1: Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Chart 2: Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain this goal and defray the operational costs. Paypal, a leading provider of secure online money transfers, will... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Gold From Weak To Strong Hands

Published on 2012-03-29 12:03:00

I've updated this morning's chart with today's data. Watch those lease spreads contract as price declines and experts pan gold as speculative investment (see video). The shift of control from weak to strong hands is too easy. Chart: Real Gold Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month GOFO) and Gold Price, USD > read more

Economy grew 3% in 4Q 2011, jobless claims still falling

Published on 2012-03-29 08:26:00

The growing gap between consumption and investment represents not only structural deficits but also the importance of consumption to maintain economic growth in the United States. In other words, consumption drives today's growth while investment, the driver of tomorrow's growth, languishes near all time lows. Infinite liquidity might lift all boats, but it won’t do much to close this... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Invisible Hand Casts A Shadow

Published on 2012-03-29 07:00:00

Bearish setups that plague D-wave declines are being unwound within a backdrop of fear. Rising lease spreads, collapsing ETF money flows into the third hook, and a sharp rise in the diffusion index (DI) as price declines illustrate another round of unwinding or what I've come to view as the invisible hand's elusive shadow (see charts 1-4). Do not underestimate it; It's exceptionally skilled at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Bernanke says U.S. needs faster growth

Published on 2012-03-27 07:05:00

No argument here. I would add that the U.S. needs faster "real" as opposed to "nominal" growth often quoted in the headlines. The difference between US dollar based and devaluation adjusted total returns, a distinction between real and nominal returns, explains why equities have underperformed gold since 2000. Did Bernanke forget to mention that? Those calling for a switch from gold to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Invisible Hand Accumulating 10-Year Bond

Published on 2012-03-27 07:00:00

The chart below illustrates the transfer of control from weak to strong hands in the 10-year. Chart: US10YR (IEF) and the Commercial (C) Less Nonreportable (NR) Traders COT Futures And Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest ------------------------------------- Insights is intended to reflect excellence in effort and content. Donations will help maintain... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Store-brand groceries now on premium shelves

Published on 2012-03-26 11:26:00

It wasn't long ago when analysts predicted "trading up" brands, driven largely by leveraged consumption from ever-rising real estate prices, had become the new norm. Then poof, this illusion faded like a mirage in the desert as Lehman Brothers collapsed and money flew out the backdoor from New York to London. Since then, citizens of Western economies have watched their standard of livings being... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Bullish Concentration Index Triggers As Jim Proposes $1630 Could Be Reaction Low

Published on 2012-03-24 08:20:00

Less visible but equally important events supporting Jim's thesis that $1630 could be the reaction low: Bullish concentration of money flows in the futures and options markets. Aggressive accumulation, a combination of short covering and long buying, generated a double and triple peak in 2008 and 2011-2012, respectively (see chart 1). In other words, the peaks represent repositioning of paper... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Bobber Will Be Released Soon

Published on 2012-03-23 13:33:00

Fishermen know that a submerged bobber will explode upward to the surface when released. The principle of gold and silver trend control follow similar rules defined by the physics of buoyancy. Watch lease spread narrow as the price of silver drops (see chart). The is but one component of the invisible hand’s grip. Chart: Real Silver Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month SOFO) and London PM... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..] > read more

Chasing Strength In Gold Is Suicide

Published on 2012-03-23 12:44:00

Veteran gold traders always follow the growing pile of body bags filled by the invisible hand’s paper operations. These operations are revealed by following the concentration of money flows. The invisible hand is accumulating “the hook” at the expense black box and retail money again (see chart); Chasing strength which is suicide in gold is easier regardless of how many times this pattern... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Bailout worries see Spanish bond yields rise

Published on 2012-03-23 07:00:00

Does anyone else recognize the perpetual (bailout) cycle here? The solution is called infinite liquidity through debt issuance and printing currency. Liquidity is lifting all boats - stocks, bonds, precious metals, and commodities. Just like it has down throughout history. Headline: Bailout worries see Spanish bond yields rise MADRID (AP) -- Spain's borrowing rates continue to rise as... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Crusher Is Flexing His Paper Muscles

Published on 2012-03-22 10:51:00

The invisible hand which reminds of the Crusher from Warner Brother's 1950 short, Bunny Hugged has been flexing it's paper muscles recently (see video) because it understands the movement of capital within a devaluation cycle. Liquidity has been driving not only stocks but also precious metals higher. When stocks are primed for another run (see equity comments below), I suspect the invisible... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Iran will attack to defend itself: Khamenei

Published on 2012-03-21 07:00:00

The West has played the SWIFT card, but the facade of its financial system is showing obvious cracks. As the depth of West's financial influence fades ever so slightly, so does its ability to resolve this issue through economic arm twisting. Iran is no pushover unless Russia and China can be motivated to look the other way. The real danger here is action driven by hubris. Headline: Iran will... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Gold and Miners Will Bottom When Investors See No More Catalysts For Rally

Published on 2012-03-20 10:40:00

Wave analysis suggest time and price are good. The money setup suggests the D-wave decline ended, while invisible hand has been hooking the last few traders off the precious metal train. Perhaps the long awaited money flow "earthquake" will shake the resolve of the few remaining gold and silver investors before the next big advance. Chart: Gold London PM Fixed Hi Eric! Haven't mailed you in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Will Portugal Follow Greece Into Debt Relief?

Published on 2012-03-13 07:05:00

Keep clicking the magic 8-ball until you get As I See It Yes, Without A Doubt, or something similar. Personally, I favor Seek professional help response. If Greece's sovereign or derivative debt fails, all other European debt will be challenged. Once the path of liquidity was chosen for Greece, there's no turning back. Headline: Will Portugal Follow Greece Into Debt Relief? Despite... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Taiwan bank made bonanza from gold purchases

Published on 2012-03-13 07:00:00

They made a bonanza in gold since 2008, but don't plan on reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings to buy more of this risky asset. Yeah right. Do you think the Republic of China which needs the US's support would say anything different? Headline: Taiwan bank made bonanza from gold purchases TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan's central bank governor says the bank has made a bonanza from gold purchases in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Consequences Of Infinite Liquidity

Published on 2012-03-12 09:04:00

The charts below illustrate several points about the evolving sovereign debt crisis. External debt levels and equilibrium price of gold (external debt divided by ounces held United States) continue soar in an increasingly comical and disturbing manner. China is slowly reducing their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Chart 3 (Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors As a %... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

SC Valencia U10 Girls and I Thank You

Published on 2012-03-11 19:16:00

I would like to thank all players, families, friends, and global supports of soccer and Insights that helped purchased the coins for team's donation basket (pictured below) and team (not shown). The unsigned coins were purchased through funds contributed to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be Purchased For My U10 Girls Soccer Team For Every $100 Donated To Insights By March 10th... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Unexpected Money Flows In Gold Money Flows Has My Attention

Published on 2012-03-09 20:24:00

Jim writes, This is why gold today is at a high presently trading at $1715.20. The estimate of under $4 billion as the total notional value of the contracts outstanding is a serious understatement. Go to the BIS report to get a feel for the real size. This will fire speculation against the rest of the Euro debt as few would buy CDS vehicles if they did not work. I still await the word default... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Currency wars: Brazil says 'it's on'

Published on 2012-03-09 13:25:00

And so describes the fiat race to the bottom or competitive devaluation intended to jump start ailing economies crippled by global debt burdens. While competitive devaluations are sold as a necessary evil of global competition, they provide little more than temporary economic fix for the debt junkies. Headline: Currency wars: Brazil says 'it's on' NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Brazil's central bank... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

1-2-3 Bottom In Gold Ahead

Published on 2012-03-09 08:12:00

Looks like the third count of a 1-2-3 bottom in gold. While this setup suggests a major turn in gold ahead, it will likely be ignored by many within the gold community. Fear and disinformation will be removing them from the gold train. Chart: London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

US offered Israel advanced weaponry in exchange for delaying Iran attack: report

Published on 2012-03-09 07:05:00

The price of oil is the best form of market intelligence on the subject. Chart: West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (OIL) AND Oil to Gold Ratio (OILGLDR) Headline: US offered Israel advanced weaponry in exchange for delaying Iran attack: report WASHINGTON -- The US offered to give Israel advanced weaponry -- including bunker-busting bombs and refueling planes -- in exchange for Israel's... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Accumulation In Gold Shares Hidden By Emotional Bias

Published on 2012-03-09 07:00:00

Chart 1: Gold Miners Index (GDX) Chart 2: Junior Gold Miners to Major Gold Miners Ratio Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be Purchased For My U10 Girls Soccer Team For Every $100 Donated To Insights By March 10th (click for details) Thank you for your support, Eric [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Warm Winter May Have Cooked Economic Data - What?

Published on 2012-03-08 14:53:00

I have to admit, I’ve read a lot of bad headline explanations throughout the years. The “warm winter effect”, dominating the influences of infinite liquidity (QE), statistical ‘flexibility’ contained within nearly all government released data, and global capital flows, however, establishes a new threshold for bad. Headline: Warm Winter May Have Cooked Economic Data The economic news has been... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and [..] > read more

Ending QE is Not An Option

Published on 2012-03-08 07:00:00

' The gold story will be told here and take root in Bernanke's statement the business is improving. Improving business conditions, in turn, might lesson the need for QE. This is not true.' Jim Source: jsmineset.com Jim's short technical review discusses how economic misdirection, often described as MOPE on jsmineset.com, allows 'connected interests' to manage (and profit) a market through... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Up Trend Resumption Requires Confirmation

Published on 2012-03-08 07:00:00

The test of previous resistance as support is always important. Smart money, highly disciplined and patient, waits for confirmation that the up trend will continue rather than blindly chasing short-term oversold readings (see chart below). Positive divergences between price and internal trend energy as well as a sharp contraction in volume during the testing process would favor trend... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Complexity Hides Silver's Invisible Hand

Published on 2012-03-07 13:24:00

The invisible hand shoves silver down the elevator shaft in plain sight but remains largely hidden by complexity. Proponents of efficient market hypothesis probably shouldn't click on the chart below. Chart: Real Silver Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month SOFO) and London PM Fixed Silver Price Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

"Too Far, Too Fast" Can't Be Subjective

Published on 2012-03-07 07:05:00

The running correction took a hit in the leg from sniper fire. Today's decline is certain to embolden the "too far, too fast" argument against equities. The dotted red lines represent a mathematically extended trend or the market saying “too far, too fast”. The line was generated on February 2009. How many investors were buying stocks then? When the computer generates another red stick,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Rising Interest Payments Unfolding Like A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

Published on 2012-03-07 07:00:00

Even if we raised taxes to 100% of income and reduced government spending to zero tomorrow, a scenario that would instantaneously organize an angry, pitchfork carrying crowd, it still wouldn’t solve the problem called rising interest rate payments. Friends, this is a slow motion train wreck called rising interest payments will be visited sooner rather than later as capital increasingly rotates... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

‘Dr. Doom’ Sees Iran-Israel Clash, Says Buy Precious Metals

Published on 2012-03-06 13:34:00

Controlling the flow of oil in the Middle East is easier said than done. Putin's high profile return in Russia is not coincidence. "The Americans and the western powers know very well they cannot contain China economically... but one way to contain China is to switch on and switch off the oil tap from the Middle East," he said. "I happen to think the Middle East will go up in flames," he... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Global Shift From Public To Private Assets

Published on 2012-03-06 07:00:00

Capital beginning to recognize something is wrong has been slowly reallocating from bonds to stocks worldwide. Japan is no exception. Reallocation from extremely low yielding Japanese government bonds (JGB) to Japanese equities is underway. The transition will be volatile. Japan Equities (EWJ) And Nikkei Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Nikkei drops on profit-taking, China growth target... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

China Expands Yuan Export Settlement to All Qualified Companies

Published on 2012-03-05 14:43:00

The Chinese are very good at saying one thing to pacify political tensions but also getting what they want in the process. The die of change has been cast. The U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency used to settle international trade will be challenged in the coming years. Headline: China Expands Yuan Export Settlement to All Qualified Companies China expanded a trial of yuan... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Fade Don't Follow Consumer Expectations

Published on 2012-03-05 07:00:00

Consumer expectations (CE), similar to that of 2007 and 2004, have surged into a zone of previous highs. This month's unexpected gain will likely setup another gold rally once optimism fades and policy makers respond with more liquidity. It’s better to fade than follow consumer expectations during an escalating debt crisis. Chart: University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (CE) and Gold: A... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..] > read more

Follow The Money, Ignore The Headlines

Published on 2012-03-02 10:49:00

My high school debate team response to this headline would have been “bull sh*t, thank you for your time.” My glib yet concise response suggests two things. First, I was never on the high school debate team. Second, simple observations rarely define the complex nature of capital flows in the real world. Liquidity is pushing up the price of movable assets. This includes stocks, gold, silver,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..] > read more

A Soft Babbly Brook of Liquidity Is Really The Colorado River

Published on 2012-03-02 07:00:00

Jim is right. Liquidity is driving the stock market higher. Spin citing the lack of visible inflation describes the force of this liquidity as a soft, babbling brook. Reality, however, is far different than perception. The force behind the trends in movable assets (stocks, gold, silver, etc.) compares to that of the Colorado River a few months after the first winter’s melt. Anyone that’s... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Greece Default SWAPS Don’t Have to Pay: ISDA

Published on 2012-03-01 10:58:00

Headline: Greece Default SWAPS Don’t Have to Pay: ISDA Default insurance on Greek debt won’t be paid out, the International Swaps & Derivatives Association said after it was asked to rule whether part of the nation’s $170 billion bailout was a credit event. The group said the European Central Bank’s exchange of Greek bonds for new securities exempt from losses being imposed on private... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Window Dressing Won't Change The View

Published on 2012-03-01 07:00:00

Silver closed the 9/22 gap on a massive surge in volume (see chart 1). This surge in volume suggests that this resistance zone despite yesterday's resurgence of doubt and fear; major support and resistance zones tend to fail in threes. For example, trading heuristics such as three drives to a top and three taps and out describe this tendency. Silver must be watched closely. It's highly... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Paper Ambushes Create Elevator Shaft Declines

Published on 2012-03-01 07:00:00

As John Embry writes, "Central planners can’t announce they are going to have constant and massive QE or everything would go to the moon. So the idea is floated around that QE3 is off the table.” Orchestrated paper attacks on the price of gold and silver tend to be most effective during tentative A-and late C-waves advances. The sharply contracting negative lease spreads by mid February hinted... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..] > read more

Jump the Creek for Silver

Published on 2012-02-29 07:36:00

I agree with Jim, silver more a game than monetary solution, but it's still one heck of a game. Paper silver keeps chewing through resistance (swing highs) on increasing volume. The absorption of supply, i.e. the breach of resistance on increasing volume, illustrates what Richard Wyckoff described as a technical sign of strength (SOS). The 9/22/11 gap from 36.22 to 38.34 represents one of the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Collapse of Another Virtuous Cycle Will Burn Investors Again

Published on 2012-02-29 07:00:00

The gold to silver ratio (GSR) represents an excellent measure of liquidity (QE) within the financial system. A rising GSR trend occurs when gold outperforms silver. This setup implies a scramble for liquidity or safety during uncertainty. A falling GSR occurs when silver outperforms gold. This setup suggests a growing appetite for risk and reluctance to hold cash. The counter trend rally of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

JPMorgan Clients With Under $100K Unprofitable

Published on 2012-02-28 14:48:00

Takes guts to bite the hand that feeds you. Headline: JPMorgan Clients With Under $100K Unprofitable JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the largest U.S. bank by assets, said about 70 percent of customers with less than $100,000 in deposits and investments will be unprofitable following regulations that cap lenders’ fees. “I’m trying to give you a proxy for what the banking industry has to look... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

California gas prices jump 26 cents in a week

Published on 2012-02-28 14:18:00

Rising gas prices caused by middle east unrest and not, repeat not, infinite liquidity stands ready to derail this fragile economic recovery, again. No need to worry, the government's strategic reserves will release just enough supply to save the day just before the fall elections. Déjà vu anyone? Headline: California gas prices jump 26 cents in a week For the sixth week in a row, gasoline... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Discipline or Emotion - Vision or Blindness?

Published on 2012-02-28 10:50:00

Emotions blind us from the obvious and force us to act hastily well after the fact. Watch for breakout on a sign of strength in grains. iPath Grains ETN (JJG): Spot Commodity Prices: CRB Spot Index (1947 - Present); 16-Raw Industrial Spot Price (1935-1947); Great Britain Wholesale Price of All Commodities (1885-1935) and Trend Z Scores Special Donation To Insights Contribute to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Concentration of Capital Leads Change

Published on 2012-02-28 07:00:00

Trends are often pushed to extremes within the confines of cycles. These extremes are motivated by greed and fear. Greed buys until the sellers have been exhausted. Fear sells until no buyers remain. After 1914, capital fled outward from London until the trends based on greed became concentrated by late 1928. Capital concentrated in the 30 Dow Industrials over the S&P 500 (chart 1), and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Merkel Wins Greek Aid Vote After Damage Warning

Published on 2012-02-27 14:15:00

Incalculable damage for whom? The Greek people whom have already had their sovereignty and control of their gold reserves challenged? The Federal Reserve and by extension the American taxpayer when the back door loans fail or must be repaid with devalued currency? Headline: Merkel Wins Greek Aid Vote After Damage Warning Chancellor Angela Merkel won a parliamentary vote on Greek aid after... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Confidence Will Turn Infinite into Finite Liquidity

Published on 2012-02-27 07:00:00

The game of kicking the (economic) can down the road without consequences has been assumed for years. The growing gulf between economic perception and reality makes social consequences more visible with each passing day. Jim commentary, When Does Notional Value Become Real Value?, is far more than some hypothetical discussion. Damage to balance sheets is so severe that infinite liquidity,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Gold And Silver, Easy As A-B-C-D

Published on 2012-02-26 07:00:00

I prefer to analyze the secular up trend in gold and silver by waves. These waves are A (minor up), B (minor down), C (major up), and D (major down). Please review The unexpected usually means pay attention post for further review. These waves are defined by price, time, and leveraged money flows defined by futures & options and Intermarket analysis. Today's guardedly optimistic but really to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Yen hits seven-month low after Bank of Japan measures

Published on 2012-02-25 07:00:00

Japan's crippling debt burden, aging population, expensive labor, and ultra low yields will force capital to flee Yen at some point. The invisible hand has been accumulating the dips since 2007. Cycles suggest that signs of distribution could emerge in 2013 or 2015. Japanese Yen (FXY) and Yen Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Yen hits seven-month low after Bank of Japan measures The Japanese... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

One in four Americans has more debt than savings

Published on 2012-02-24 07:00:00

Pop culture's full embrace of the "live for today and forget about tomorrow" philosophy has raised generations of Americans that no longer understand that living beyond their means not only jeopardizes their future standard of living but also increases their dependency on governmental largess. One can’t help see the devilish irony that a growing number of Americans blame government largess and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Farmland goes for a premium as commodity prices tick up

Published on 2012-02-23 12:39:00

Commodities were king in 2011. The sharp break into 2012 has not only emboldened the top callers but also turned the crowd from greed to fear. Fear within secular up trends often coincide with excellent entry or reentry points. Watch for a technical trigger. Chart: CRB Spot And Year-over-Year (YOY) Change Headline: Farmland goes for a premium as commodity prices tick up In the last five... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Housing market perks up, but prices are still falling

Published on 2012-02-23 11:26:00

Americans largely leveraged to the previous cycle's investment darling breathed a sigh of relief as signs of a rebound begin to emerge in the real estate sector. Only one break or bounce becomes the real turning point. While time, money flows, and credit support a short-term liquidity driven bounce, they don’t support a secular bottom. That won’t come until 2034. Chart 1 and Chart 2... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Another phase in the Greek tragedy - it could lose all its gold!

Published on 2012-02-23 08:04:00

Don’t expect the Greek people to accept even the inference as colony of the E.U. for long. Jim’s March window for an event warrants serious consideration. Headline: Another phase in the Greek tragedy - it could lose all its gold! Today we are watching both Iran and the Sudan use their gold to buy food for their country as they have nowhere else and nothing else to get it with. Under the terms... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! [..] > read more

Dow Jones hits 13,000: Time to invest?

Published on 2012-02-23 07:00:00

Does anyone remember a similar debate at Dow 10,000? Better yet, does anyone still have one of those Dow 10,000 hats? I realize that the media, i.e. headlines, love to equate rising stock prices with an improving economy, but the two don't always coexist. A stock market can just as easily rise as a result of infinite liquidity driven by currency debasement as it can from improving economic... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

What Does Duffusion Index Mean?

Published on 2012-02-22 12:20:00

Hi Peter, In scientific terms diffusion refers to the spread of particles from an area of high to lower concentration. This distribution of particles is driven by a concentration gradient. The passive transport of molecules across a semi-permeable membrane is called osmosis within biological systems. Simply substitute particles with paper contracts in the phrase “spread of particles” and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Money Flows Defined By Intermarket Analysis

Published on 2012-02-22 07:00:00

The study of relative strength between markets is defined as Intermarket analysis. Intermarket analysis uses relative strength to establish the direction and magnitude of capital flows to better define the economic cycles. Divergences between markets often predict some sort of trend change. For example, when higher highs in equity prices coincide with lower highs in the Chicago Fed National... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

US firm forced to return Spanish shipwreck treasure it discovered worth more than $500m

Published on 2012-02-21 10:27:00

Apparently, the native Indians of North and South America from which gold and silver were originally looted by the Spanish did not hire good enough lawyers. Headline: US firm forced to return Spanish shipwreck treasure it discovered worth more than $500m (but at least the Spanish military is paying for its transit) Despite finding the treasure and spending more than $2million to recover it, a... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Gloves About To Come Off In Silver?

Published on 2012-02-21 09:46:00

Accumulation by the "strong hands" during the 2011 D-wave decline was impressive. Silver's diffusion index (DI) reading of 95, second only to 97 recorded during the Great Financial Panic of 2008, reveals the strength of the accumulation (see chart 1). Yet investors appear to have forgotten that silver nearly quintupled from $10 to $40+ once the invisible hand regained control of the trend in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Gold eWave Projection

Published on 2012-02-21 08:05:00

Hi Eric Here's one you might enjoy. sharelynx.com Regards Nick Special Donation To Insights Contribute to Insights By March 10th, One Silver Eagle Will Be Purchased For My U10 Girls Soccer Team For Every $100 Donated To Insights By March 10th (click for details) Thank you for your support, Eric [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Eurozone approves new $173B bailout for Greece

Published on 2012-02-21 07:44:00

The Fed quietly loans over $1 trillion to the ECB in December. $1.5 trillion available for lending to European banks by early 2012. European banks through the power of fractional reserved banking will leverage this number to $14 trillion. The European banks borrow these funds at 1% and lend just over 4%. This subsidized money flow, carefully orchestrated to prevent calling it a bailout, is... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Unexpected Usually Means Pay Attention

Published on 2012-02-21 07:00:00

The mean price decline for the D-wave was $1529.50/ounce. The low thus far was $1531. An interesting aspect of this forecast turned out to be time. The mean time forecast was March 6th. The December 29th low came much sooner than expected (see table 1) Table 1: D-wave Analysis This unexpected outcome suggests either further downside to come or the forces driving gold higher have... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Computers Programmed To Be Smart Do Dumb Things

Published on 2012-02-20 08:42:00

Hi Jerome, That chart was pulled from the commentary Investors 'Overly Bullish' On Nasdaq 100 Is Not Always A Harbinger Of Sharp Declines. I could very well substituted a few words to make it read Investors 'Overly Bearish' On Oil Is Not Always A Harbinger of Sharp Declines. The discussion was intended to suggest that computers programmed to be smart often do dumb things. Statistically... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Early Stage Mark-Up Phase For Copper

Published on 2012-02-20 07:00:00

While some rush to classify today's negative divergence of copper (Dr. Copper) and stock prices as a troubling omen for the real economy, they likely missed the money flow setup in copper that triggered yet another mark-up phase in early 2012. Chart 1 reveals the early stages of this phase. Chart 1: Copper (JJC) And Copper Diffusion Index (DI) Chart 2 illustrates the money flow cross between... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Tell A Lie Big Enough, Loud Enough And Long Enough And The Sheeple Will Believe

Published on 2012-02-20 07:00:00

You will get a rude awakening come June this year as international dollar utilization sunders badly, setting a major unexpected down trend for the dollar and gold’s greatest ever ascent. A significant challenge to dollar hegemony could be felt as early as March 2012. For those scoring at home (an old American idiom used to describe fans numerically tracking the progress of the baseball game at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Insight: Japan slowly wakes up to doomsday debt risk

Published on 2012-02-19 07:00:00

Japan should have awoke to their doomsday debt risk when the Yen (FXY ETF) traded above 97 in 2008. The sequence of failure will be as follows: (1) Europe, (2) Japan, and finally (3) the United States. Once the United States becomes the last man standing, it's will receive full attention from the wolf pack (global capital). Cycle dates and statistically significant short-side concentration... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Interpretations From Technical & Intermarket Analysis Depends On Perspective

Published on 2012-02-18 07:05:00

The Dow Theory, as most interpretations in technical and intermarket analysis, depends on your perspective. While the transports have failed to lead and/or confirm higher highs in the Dow Industrials over the short-term, discriminating trader knows they’ve been leading the Industrials for years. For instance, the Dow Transports established new highs in 2011, while the Dow Industrials did not. ... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Obama wants cheaper pennies and nickels

Published on 2012-02-18 07:00:00

As long as the standing Administration supports a stronger - meaning weaker dollar, those pesky little pennies and nickels will only get more expensive to produce. Eventually, Gresham’s law will release its citizen from shackles of expensive coins and paper notes to the freedom of the great cashless society provided by credit. After that, visionary citizens and fund managers will be allowed to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

TIC: Net Foreign LT Secs Purchases $1.6B In Dec

Published on 2012-02-17 07:00:00

As China steadily decreased its long-term US Treasury holdings, Japan and United Kingdom have increased them. The chart below illustrates the interconnectedness of the three major holders. Chart: Major Foreigner Holders of US Treasury Securities: The Three Horsemen Headline: TIC: Net Foreign LT Secs Purchases $1.6B In Dec Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--China sold U.S.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Standard of Livings Continue To Decline

Published on 2012-02-17 07:00:00

The proof of standard of livings resides in plain sight, yet few Americans recognize it. Was Green Day’s song America Idiot (2004) onto something? It would appear so on the surface. The response of denial, however, is a typical behavior when an individual or group is confronted with a problem they believe is insurmountable. American Idiot: Headline: Social Security Is Failing Even Faster... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Bernanke: Weak housing has hurt consumer spending

Published on 2012-02-16 08:06:00

Bernanke suggests that the largely consumption-driven US economy needs rising home prices to support it. Cheap and easy credit, in turn, is needed to support rising home prices. While credit is cheap, table below suggests that it’s not easy. Real estate loans have become increasingly restrictive since the financial crisis in 2008. Real estate loans as a percentage of total bank credit has... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Central Banks Trying To Keep Gold From Rising Violently

Published on 2012-02-16 07:00:00

Listen to Jim’s interview. The invisible hand has been working hard to keep a lid on gold and silver since April 2011. The hand is far more influential when it follows the direction of the cycles. For example, heavy paper selling works best during the D- and B-wave declines. The recent cycle transition from D-wave decline to A-wave advance means the invisible hand’s ability to control the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

How Do I Learn How To Follow The Money?

Published on 2012-02-15 08:48:00

Hi Craig, For now I rely on the sharing model for reward. Statistical analysis often looks fancy and impressive, but it’s merely a tool that focuses the message of the market. Statistical understanding without the ability to interpret the messages contained in global capital flows is like saying geologist needs only side-scanning radar to find gold deposits. It gives the impression that finding... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ] [..] > read more

Be Less Bullish Toward Stocks Now?

Published on 2012-02-15 07:00:00

The headlines have been filled with experts urging caution towards stocks recently. Record bullish sentiment, we've come too far too fast, and deteriorating economic fundamentals in the US are but a few of the reasons cited as reasons to be increasingly cautious towards stocks. Of course, this is the point where I discredit the experts by saying they're all wrong. But I won't. I will say,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Australian Dollar

Published on 2012-02-14 11:18:00

Mick has asked about my thoughts on the Australian Dollar "Aussie dollar". I have none. The message from the market, ignoring emotional interpretation from short-term volatility, is higher. 1-2 accumulations, common in both the Aussie and Loonie (Canadian Dollar), often coincide with D-waves in gold. Australian Dollar (FXA) And Australian Dollar Diffusion Index (DI) Special Donation To... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Standard of Livings Are Declining Across Most of the Western World

Published on 2012-02-14 09:22:00

Chart Notes:Gold-adjusted retail sales, or constant currency sales, have contracted year-over-year (YOY) since 2000. 2005 and 2007 saw brief periods of constant currency YOY gains, but they didn't last long. Constant currency retail sales hasn't been able surpass a -10% contraction since 2008. This contraction rates sits like an anvil over spending. Ever wonder why that trip to brick and mortar... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Are the Gold Shares Following Gold?

Published on 2012-02-14 08:59:00

The short-term emotional response says, hell no. Mathematic-based discipline says, yes. The correlation between gold and the gold stocks has been 0.86 since 2000*. This is a strong correlation. Does this suggest gold and the gold stocks are comparable investments? Yes and no. While gold stocks are tightly correlated with gold, their unique business risks alter their reward profile relative to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Buy Gold Stock Weakness, Says The Market

Published on 2012-02-13 13:59:00

Ephrem, The market’s message after a massive, multi-decade breakout is buy weakness. Unfortunately, human behavior is hardwired for selling rather than buying fear. This means gold shares train, fueled by rising gold prices, will shed a lot of passengers along the way. S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)* The gold shares mania phase, characterized by rising dividends and higher... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Crisis We Should Be Panicking About: Bacon Prices

Published on 2011-07-05 09:38:00

Pork bellies and hogs are topic for discussion by Dan, but don't totally laugh this one off. The global debt crisis has sparked riots in Greece and elsewhere in Europe, but while you were watching the mayhem on TV, you might not have noticed that th > read more

Capitulation Zone Explained In Silver

Published on 2011-07-05 07:05:00

Mark, Like most things, you're reading my 'handwritten' computer notes. The capitulation zone can be best characterized as the point where those beating the grass (strong hands) are finding it difficult to locate snakes (weak hands) to scare. The > read more

Happy Independence Day

Published on 2011-07-04 06:00:00

The second day of July, 1776, will be the most memorable epoch in the history of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by succeeding generations as the great anniversary festival. It ought to be commemorated as the day of deliveranc > read more

Lumber Ready To Lay Some Wood On The Bears?

Published on 2011-07-02 10:49:00

Is lumber ready to lay some wood on the bears? The bullish setup contained within an inverse head and shoulders, a classic inflection pattern, warrants attention from both sides of the trade. Perhaps it’s time to expedite plans for that extra bar > read more

The Silver Setup Needs A New Descriptive Catch Phrase

Published on 2011-07-01 18:03:00

I've used phrase such as watch out and shock and awe to describe the setup in silver. After today's numbers, I add holy sh*t, batman to the hat of descriptive catch phrases. Certain interests are professionally buying this decline as the public slumb > read more

Oil Building Cause For Another Run

Published on 2011-07-01 17:39:00

The bullish setup in oil is nearing completion as it builds cause for another run. It will happen with or without a hurricane-induced supply disruption. But hey, it’s easier to blame the hurricane whenever possible. CrudeOil (WTI) and the Commer > read more

Anyone Watching Copper?

Published on 2011-07-01 14:17:00

The media finally realized this? The bullish setup in copper is nearly a month old. Copper Supply Squeeze Coming, Prices to Jump: Analyst Copper prices fell on Friday after data from China showed factory activity slowed more than expected in the wo > read more

Variations On A Theme Coming To The US

Published on 2011-07-01 09:59:00

Selective vision sees differences when similarities exist. Like Greece, many states within the US union will succumb to consequences of the sovereign debt crisis. Call it an economic and social analog to Hayden’s Variation On A Theme. Headline: Br > read more

Evolution of the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Published on 2011-07-01 06:25:00

The following headlines provide a classic example of practical economics in action not only in Greece but also many states within the United States. They reveal an evolving story of survival and protection against present and future actions of centra > read more

Lead, follow, or get out of the way

Published on 2011-06-30 09:11:00

Lead, follow, or get out of the way, Thomas Paine. This setup was flagged by the computers this morning. Bears or bulls wearing short pants would be wise to recognize the bullish divergence in AD(E). AD(E), a measure of market participation and simi > read more

Unrealistic Projections & Practical Economics

Published on 2011-06-30 08:41:00

Layoffs and concessions of all sorts translate into lower standard of livings for many states and illustrate practical economic forces at work. Many states have adopted optimistic revenue projections to narrow future budget shortfalls. How realisti > read more

Muni Bonds Reflect States' Vicious Cycle

Published on 2011-06-30 07:19:00

Spending cuts and optimistic revenue projections may narrow the budget gaps on paper, but practical economics inevitably alters the best laid plans. The public sector is still the largest employer across America. Public sector layoffs will continue a > read more

Watch Out For Turnip Truck Analysis

Published on 2011-06-29 15:16:00

The strategic oil supply release was similar to filling a couple of swimming pools from the Colorado River then creating a press release to telling everyone to watch for a change in the water. Turnip truck analysis usually hides very specific intent > read more

Liquidity Is Driving Stocks Higher

Published on 2011-06-29 14:55:00

Headlines provide the lame explanations for a public looking for easy answers. Capital knows that liquidity (currency devaluation) is driving this game. The chart below illustrates this point. Devaluation Steps: S&P 500 Total Market Return and In > read more

Real Estate Remains Weak

Published on 2011-06-29 12:53:00

A rise in signed contracts to buy homes today could precede more of them broken in the future. Be wary of easy headline inferences. The bounce in real home prices since 2009 remains nothing more than counter trend rally within a secular downtrend th > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-06-29 11:33:00

Stephen, The market is not concerned with the actions of day traders. Day to day movements represents nothing more than non-actionable trend “noise”. The concentration of capital, i.e. bullish or bearish setups by specific players, is useful i > read more

Published on 2011-06-29 07:15:00

Perceptions about gold will come full circle in time, but not after a significant political, social, and market fight. Market forces are winning the battle, but we have yet to see significant change in perceptions. The great perceptions shift will > read more

BofA settles on legacy Countrywide mortgage repurchase

Published on 2011-06-29 06:27:00

The same reason why lawyers never ask a question they don't know the answer. They all settle on the Court Steps. Ever asked yourself WHY? Jim Bank of America Corp settled nearly all of the claims related to the legacy Countrywide-issued first-lie > read more

Market Forces Set Interest Rates

Published on 2011-06-28 13:52:00

Those that believe central planners control short-term rates have not studied history. The printing press’s on/off switch and confidence game (MOPE) reflects the extent of their controlling reach. The yellow box roughly approximates when percepti > read more

US Money Markets--Another Channel of Contagion

Published on 2011-06-28 13:11:00

Jim offers an important heads up. Please note. Money market funds are experiencing increased withdrawals. This could be dangerous. Jim Headline: US Money Markets--Another Channel of Contagion New earlier this month that Moody's was placing 3 F > read more

Pimco sees rising inflation for 3 - 5 years

Published on 2011-06-28 07:02:00

This is why the bearish setup in bonds is so interesting today. Capital discounts and anticipates the future. Persistent bearish concentration in 2011 suggests not only rising interest rates but also inflation as early as 2012. Headline: Pimco sees > read more

Gold Is A Game of Control

Published on 2011-06-27 22:30:00

Control is all about managing the paper market. This is done through futures and options markets. The trend is controlled by managing various aspects supply and demand as measured by open interest. Statistically significant changes in open interest, > read more

Slow and Steady Outflows In Natural Gas

Published on 2011-06-27 10:16:00

The only opinion I follow is the message of the market. Any sustainable or tradable bottom in natural gas (NG) is likely to be preceded by a bullish concentration of funds. Natural gas’s diffusion index, a measure of concentration, reveals outflows > read more

U.S. Dollar Outflows Continue

Published on 2011-06-27 07:37:00

Previous third wave countertrend rallies provide a template for the future. Strong outflows during these rallies reflect a rebalancing of control while the headlines distract. A reading below 20% would signal a strong bearish setup and would represe > read more

Fed May Buy $300 Billion in Treasuries After QE2

Published on 2011-06-27 07:26:00

QE(n) needs not be officially announced. The Federal Reserve will remain the biggest buyer of Treasuries, even after the second round of quantitative easing ends this week, as the central bank uses its $2.86 trillion balance sheet to keep interest r > read more

Bearish Setup Without Technical Trigger In Bonds

Published on 2011-06-26 10:07:00

Outflows in the bond market reflect a ticking time bomb to the bullish argument. Patience and discipline wait for a technical trigger that will detonate this bomb. The market knows that supply will continue to hit the market with or without QE3. QE p > read more

Coffee Drinkers Watch Out

Published on 2011-06-26 09:46:00

Coffee’s DI has produced a DI reading of 83 as of June 21st. This is a strong bullish setup. Diffusion readings above 80 tend to represent statistically concentrated accumulation. The last time coffee generated such a reading was late 2008. The DI > read more

There Still Chips On Table In The Silver Game

Published on 2011-06-25 08:06:00

The invisible hand of control is certainly not restricted to the oil market. Notice invisible hand pushes the silver market at tops and bottoms. For example, silver rallies, illustrated by green arrows, tend to be associated with contractions in ne > read more

Releasing Snake Oil From The Strategic Stockpile

Published on 2011-06-24 20:56:00

Unbelievable, huh? Headline hype has been quick to embrace the benefits of lower gas prices on travel and household budgets. Meanwhile, objective capital ignores the hype and quietly buys the decline. Eric Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion In > read more

Extreme Pessimism In Gold Stocks

Published on 2011-06-24 10:34:00

Bartek, Markets tend breathe between the extremes within cycles. A normalized gold stocks to gold ratio establishes the extremes. As I have written many times before, the invisible hand will “beat the grass to startle the snakes.” In other words > read more

Speculation Is Not Driving Commodities Higher

Published on 2011-06-24 08:07:00

The secular trend breathes as a result of speculation. Speculation does not set the direction of the trend. Fundamentals, monetary policies, and cycles determine its direction, magnitude and duration. Spot Commodity Prices: CRB Spot Index (1947 - > read more

Well-Coordinated Plans May Seem Like Acts Of Desperation

Published on 2011-06-24 06:37:00

Releasing 30 million barrels, less than 5% of the U.S. total strategic reserves, was not an act of desperation. Actions without a plan suggest desperation. This action was designed to create technical selling by weak hands at key support. That it > read more

The Quiet Setup In Gold

Published on 2011-06-23 14:05:00

Money moving against the headlines because it knows that Jim is right. Be prepared for gold to take out $1650 on the upside as magnets at $12,544 come into play. Be prepared for the Inflationary Depression of all time. The chart below illustrates t > read more

It's All About Confidence

Published on 2011-06-23 13:16:00

The liquidity driven economic recovery is all about confidence. The more confidence slips, the greater the need for stimulus and quantitative easing. What the public fails to realize is that the depression would have started long ago without the va > read more

Follow the Primary and Long-Term Trend/Cycles

Published on 2011-06-23 10:30:00

The natural ebb and flow of the equity market as illustrated by the primary and long-term trend. Extreme readings on the downside tend to be following by extreme readings to the upside. Of course, there’s always the possibility that "it's different > read more

Bullish Inflows Support Planned Intervention In Oil

Published on 2011-06-23 10:12:00

Today’s action in the oil market represents a classic example of “beat the grass to startle the snakes.” I often use this phrase to describe the rearranging control of the trend into the right hands. As the guest commenter suggests in the vide > read more

Growing Social Discontent Abroad

Published on 2011-06-23 08:14:00

Organized social discontent in Greece offers a preview of things to come in various states across America. Headline: Greek unions call general strike for June 28, 29 Greece's largest labor union has called a 48-hour general strike for June 28 and 2 > read more

PIMCO'S Gross says Fed to unveil QE3 at Jackson Hole

Published on 2011-06-22 16:09:00

It’s denoted here as QE(n) donates for a reason. QE must continue or the social and economic consequences of a growing debt implosion will intensify into 2012 Presidential election – not likely. Bill Gross on Wednesday said the Federal Reserve > read more

Silver-Coin Sales Boom at Perth’s Mint as Mums and Dads Desert Paper Money

Published on 2011-06-22 14:22:00

Silver-coin sales from Australia’s Perth Mint, which was founded in 1899 and processes all of the country’s bullion, have surged to a record as buyers seek to protect their wealth with the metal known as poor man’s gold. The mint sold 10.7 mil > read more

Bernank-O-Meter During Press Conference, Seriously?

Published on 2011-06-22 13:16:00

The Bernank-O-Meter, a measure of economist agreement or disagreement of Bernanke's comments introduced by F-TV, serves what purpose? Could this be an SNL skit, or am I missing something? Funny stuff, either way. Bernanke Holds Press Conference > read more

Americans Live In The Real World Not Defined By Statistics

Published on 2011-06-22 09:15:00

The jobs situation is not quite comparable to the Great Depression yet, but it will draw comparisons in time - likely well after the fact. Civilian Unemployment Rate The unadjusted and historical comparable unemployment rate exceeds 20% today. He > read more

There More Than One Warning Here

Published on 2011-06-22 06:16:00

What happens to the various markets when investors begin to realize that Portugal, Spain, Italy, California, New Jersey, New York, Illinois, and others with similar debt problems do not have currency devaluation as solution to the problem? As during > read more

Increased Public Participation In Gold Is Inevitable

Published on 2011-06-21 15:21:00

eBay's Bullion Center Beta Another step in the transition from what the unknown barbaric commodity (phase 1) to professional accumulation (phase 2) to ultimately full blown public mania (phase 3). Increased public exposure will eventually tilt the s > read more

Russia to Reduce U.S. Debt Holdings

Published on 2011-06-21 13:40:00

Before the shock and awe comes trail of footprints of money moving with its feet that becomes obvious in retrospect. Headline: Russia to Reduce U.S. Debt Holdings A top Russian economic official says his country is likely to continue decreasing th > read more

Financial Market Two-Step Crossover

Published on 2011-06-21 09:50:00

UTEP Two Step Basketball fans are likely well-aware of Tim Hardaway's innovative UTEP two-step. There's also an innovative two-setup in the capital markets. The QE(n) driven, down currency, up equities has been driving equities since 2000. The mos > read more

Dow 20,000 Is Not Pure Speculative Hype

Published on 2011-06-21 08:32:00

Speculative hype has little to do with stock prices since 2000. The large cap stock to gold ratio illustrates how currency devaluation, i.e. printing money through quantitative easing QE(n), has been driving stocks higher for more than a decade. I > read more

The Emerging New Monetarism: Gold Convertibility To Save The Euro

Published on 2011-06-21 08:20:00

Gold convertibility would save not only the Euro but all paper currencies. This includes the U.S. dollar. Soon the focus will turn to the legitimacy of stated gold reserves. Professor Robert Mundell urges gold convertibility for the euro, the curren > read more

PBOC issues more commemorative coins to meet soaring demands

Published on 2011-06-21 07:10:00

Many investors in the US still fail recognize soaring demand for precious metals from the BRIC nations. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, announced on Monday that it will issue more gold and silver commemorative coins featuring th > read more

Gold bugs confident on gold — but stocks?

Published on 2011-06-20 14:29:00

Statistically speaking, gold stocks remain strongly correlated with gold. All markets breathe (ebb and flow). Unfortunately, emotions often distort perceptions. Investors’ reactions to short-term ebbs (under performance) can distort the reality of > read more

Follow the Frogs & Small Cap Stocks For Health

Published on 2011-06-20 12:30:00

As amphibian populations tend to be a good indication of ecosystem health, so is the direction of small cap stocks in an inflationary trend. An ecosystem in trouble tends to be foreshadowed by crashing frog populations. An inflationary trend in troub > read more

Is the U.S. like Greece?

Published on 2011-06-19 22:13:00

Like, yes, but comparable No. Greece as part of the European Union is quite similar to any over-leveraged state within the US Union. After the American Revolution, US created a single currency, but left states to handle their own debts and economic > read more

Bullish Inflows As Oil Declines

Published on 2011-06-19 06:52:00

The headlines provide convenient explanations for markets that were setup by leverage money flows weeks/months in advance. The bearish setup or distribution action for both oil and euro came in April 2011. The headlines were focusing on some other fl > read more

Is The COMEX Manipulating Gold Margins To Mask Silver Supply Deficits?

Published on 2011-06-18 11:40:00

The manipulation of margin requirements is a classic example of short-term cause and effect. Short-term trading 'noise' can never be confused with manipulation, but the old trading axiom suggests no coincidences in this business. The downward adjustm > read more

Watching Retail Money In Silver

Published on 2011-06-18 08:10:00

Retail money remains stubbornly neutral for silver. While the red arrow illustrates liquidation, it has yet to reflect statistical concentration. If another panic decline materializes, it will likely be fueled by their long liquidation. The trend man > read more

Racine Unified may sue over state cuts to school funding

Published on 2011-06-17 14:24:00

This highly charged, still largely theoretical partisan debate will turn into nonpartisan "what do we do now" panic as the consequences of turning off the liquidity spigot begin to emerge between 2012 and 2013. Tread carefully gentleman, the road to > read more

Buy When There's Blood In The Streets

Published on 2011-06-17 13:58:00

Many investors, some within the community, have sold their gold shares for the safety of gold into the recent decline. Fear and doubt are running wild. A similar mathematical comparison would be 2008. Investors exchanging their gold for gold stock > read more

Bill Gross Smells End Game Approaching

Published on 2011-06-17 11:14:00

The US has been engaging in stealth default for years. For example, gold was removed from circulation and made illegal for citizens to own in 1934. Silver was removed from circulation in 1964. Also, the international gold window was closed in 1971. T > read more

Public sector retirement age 'will rise to 66'

Published on 2011-06-17 10:45:00

Public sector retirement age will rise to 66, so will the broken promises in the coming years. Alter the terms of the contract rather than reduce spending. Unfunded liabilities or government promises soared and eventually broke the Roman Empire. H > read more

The Muddle Through Strategy Will Fail

Published on 2011-06-17 09:26:00

Why what for the IMF’s interpretation when the markets have been signaling this for months? Currency induced cost push inflation spikes are best illustrated in the chart below. Notice the pattern of increasing spikes from 1963 to 1980 in the PP to > read more

Small Cap Stocks Continue To Lead

Published on 2011-06-17 08:13:00

Small cap stock reflect an economic backdrop dominated by currency devaluation. Superior returns long-term returns has always been about intentification of secular trends. Small Cap Total Return Index (SCSTRI) AND SCSTRI to Gold Ratio Chart: faceboo > read more

Retail Sales Have Rolled Over

Published on 2011-06-17 08:02:00

US economic growth is largely consumption driven. The charts below clearly illustrate that consumption peaked in late 2010 to early 2011. Falling consumption means slowing economic growth, and slowing economic growth means lower federal receipts whil > read more

‘Tidal Wave’ of Gold Demand Coming From China, India as Economies Expand

Published on 2011-06-17 06:56:00

The fundamentals, driven by excessive debt and currency devaluation, are driving gold higher. The eastern economies, recognizing this trend and transition of power, continue to invest according. Western economies, particularly their citizens, remai > read more

Thin Red Line Between Order and Chaos

Published on 2011-06-16 13:47:00

Jim's comments are important. Global economic growth has been supported by QE1, QE2 and other liquidity injection programs. The global economy, highly leveraged, would have unwound with frightening speed without this liquidity. A similar unwinding > read more

Soon Fear Will Turn Into Greed In Copper Market

Published on 2011-06-16 07:37:00

Follow the money! It has been repositioned into weakness. Soon the sellers of weakness will become chasers of strength. Do you understand the game yet? Copper (JJC) And Copper Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Copper Stockpiles Dropping 50% in China > read more

Dive in Silver Price a “Setup,” Says Sprott

Published on 2011-06-16 07:33:00

You bet it's a setup. Silver's money flow footprint illustrates management of the trend. Headline: Dive in Silver Price a “Setup,” Says Sprott Eric Sprott is CEO of Sprott Asset Management and a long-time proponent of owning both gold and silve > read more

You’re Out of Your Mind If You Sell Gold Assets Now, Jim Sinclair

Published on 2011-06-16 06:49:00

Jim is right, Paper shufflers have been beating the grass the startle the snakes (weak hands) because investors, reluctant to do their own homework, have a tendency to act based on emotions rather than intellectual discipline. While intellectual dis > read more

Secular Bulls End With The Defiance of Logic

Published on 2011-06-15 16:14:00

Hello Ephrem, The commodity bull is not over by a long shot. Secular bulls do not end quietly. They end in buying frenzies that defy logic. Gold leads the currency devaluation parade and will continue to lead commodities since the secular trend beg > read more

Newsflash - Oil Falls Sharply

Published on 2011-06-15 15:16:00

A study of the movement of money through concentration can anticipate the context of the headlines week/months in advance. Headlines such as “Unrest in Greece provides strength to the dollar” might as well have been worded “Aliens landing at th > read more

Dollar's Short-Term Bounce Weakening?

Published on 2011-06-15 11:59:00

Anyone that has followed Jim Rogers knows that he tends to preface his comments by saying he's not a very good trader of short-term trends. Listen, I know trading, he's pretty good. Rogers, like most good traders, tends to omit when the short-term tr > read more

Midday Comments on the Euro

Published on 2011-06-15 11:33:00

Renewed Greece fears/focus my asterisk! Today's decline in the Euro was setup well in advance of the headline news. This is a classic example of the tail wagging the dog. Coincidentally, hardly so, the strong hands are using this opportunity relie > read more

Secular Bulls Do Not End Quietly

Published on 2011-06-15 09:48:00

Consolidation after a significant advance does not translate into a secular inflection point. Anyone convinced the secular bull is over might be interested in certain bridge for sale in New York. Time is as important as price when estimating duration > read more

Austerity For All Except Me

Published on 2011-06-15 08:13:00

People agree that austerity is needed, but with so many people dependent on the programs austerity intends to cut the result is growing rage and distrust. Keen historians have already drawn parallels to today’s headlines and the growing social dis > read more

Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR)

Published on 2011-06-15 07:53:00

Many view liquidity, risk, and silver as dead assets. The gold to silver ratio (GSR), i.e. the message of the market, currently consolidation after a strong downward surge, suggests otherwise. Chart: facebook.com [[ This is a content summary only. > read more

Morning Comments on Bond Market

Published on 2011-06-15 07:00:00

While headline explanations focus on short-term economic noise, they never seem to notice the invisible hand of leverage money flows. Outflows in the bond market as price rises illustrates a continuing bearish setup in bonds. Setups in the bond marke > read more

It's F.U.B.A.R

Published on 2011-06-14 13:56:00

A generation of Americans, long removed from the event, will view America's Great Recession as the Greater Great Depression. The true visionaries will have correctly called F.U.B.A.R long before its mainstream acceptance. Headline: US Housing Crisis > read more

Cash Assets Are Soaring!

Published on 2011-06-14 11:37:00

The message of the market is often hidden in plain sight. Why are cash assets as a percentage of total bank credit soaring at US commercial banks? Today’s surge has surpassed the levels reached after Lehman collapse. Cash Assets 12-Month Change (C > read more

What Happens If It’s Not There?

Published on 2011-06-14 10:56:00

Tread carefully gentleman, once the box has been opened, it cannot be closed. If the gold at Fort Knox (or other US depositories) is not real, then in terms of the evolving financial crisis, to quote an old street saying, we have yet to see the shit > read more

QE2 Ending But More Is Needed

Published on 2011-06-14 06:58:00

Stick your head in the ground if you must, but trend anticipation and market vision cannot be acquired by following the spinsters’ headline rhetoric. The up trend in gold and silver will resume once the weak hands have been relieved of their net lo > read more

Greece Is Not The Only Sideshow

Published on 2011-06-14 06:47:00

State budgets continue to hemorrhage red ink from Minnesota to California. Layoffs and shutdowns are inevitable without further stimulus. Think about what the effect of further public layoffs and furloughs would have on private expenditures (consumpt > read more

More Flying Pigs

Published on 2011-06-13 15:40:00

S&P slashed Greece's credit rating to the lowest in the world today. Bill Gross also stated that US is in even worse financial shape than Greece. Logic dictates that S&P should downgrade the US's credit rating soon, right? Headline: S&P > read more

Vietnam holds live-fire drill amid China tensions

Published on 2011-06-13 13:20:00

South China Sea dipute is but one example of the battle for finite resources across the globe. Vietnam put on a show of military strength in the tense South China Sea on Monday, risking the ire of Beijing in the face of a deepening maritime rift wit > read more

Afternoon Comment on Silver

Published on 2011-06-13 12:10:00

Beat the grass to startle the snakes. How hard is it to scare the weak hands in silver? A little copy and paste from Sunday morning's comments should explain away most of today's price decline in silver, The only hitch in the setup at this point i > read more

Reader Questions

Published on 2011-06-13 08:57:00

Greg, Myron, and friends I certainly understand the intellect quandary provided by the money game. The money game, which at times makes chess look like beer checkers, requires targeted understanding and years of experience to simply prevent one’s > read more

Feel The Market Inhale and Exhale - Breathe

Published on 2011-06-13 06:53:00

The master traders could use their instincts to ‘feel’ the market inhale and exhale. In other words, they could feel the market breathe in its natural rhythm. Today, computers help traders hone this unique instinct for those without the DNA that > read more

Silver Preparing For Another Shock And Awe Move

Published on 2011-06-12 06:56:00

Money flows reflect a bullish setup despite the negative headlines and growing pessimism towards silver. Open interest continues to decline as the weak hands are flushed (see chart below). This action is consistent with paper operations in which th > read more

When Pigs Fly

Published on 2011-06-10 12:43:00

The secular trend retail (consumption) remains down until at least 2016. Personal expenditures (consumption) contribute over 70% of gross domestic product (national income). Any real decline in consumption will slam economic growth as the Presidentia > read more

Can You Spare Me $5 For A Loaf of Bread?

Published on 2011-06-10 06:59:00

What little savings Americans have accumulated within the consumption era are being slowly eroded by the global debt implosion, excessive personal leverage, a general lack of understanding of how interest and compounding works. Household balance she > read more

Japan raises spectre of Fukushima 'melt-through'

Published on 2011-06-09 14:53:00

Melt through into the environment, particularily the water supply, will effect a far greater region than a 50- to 100-mile radius around Fukushima. This will certainly complicate the clean up process and Japan's recovery. For the first time, Japane > read more

Gold $12,500 Is Not A Crazy Number

Published on 2011-06-09 13:02:00

Bear in mine that all markets are interconnected. Stocks and gold move together during periods of aggressive currency devaluation. 2:1 to 1:1 ratio implies a gold target price between $6,500 and $13,000 at Dow 13,000 by late 2013 to early 2014. Do > read more

CME Threatens to Skip Town Over Illinois Tax Hike

Published on 2011-06-09 10:33:00

The Achilles heel of tax and spend policies is that it always exhausts other people's money (OPM) to spend. Capital rarely squares up to fight unsustainable policies, it simply votes with its feet. Headline: CME Threatens to Skip Town Over Illinois > read more

Buying the Dip vs Catching A Falling Knife

Published on 2011-06-09 09:39:00

Past trading masters used the ‘pulse’ of tape and gut instincts read exhaustion and fear. Today’s traders despite access to computers and AI software still look foolish in comparison. There’s a distinction between catching a falling knife an > read more

Jim Rogers One On One

Published on 2011-06-08 22:12:00

if the world economy gets better commodities do well. if it doesn't, they'll going to print more money. it's the wrong thing to do but that's all they know to do in washington and tokyo and a few places. they'll print more money. if they print money, > read more

Background Noise vs Secular Trends

Published on 2011-06-08 16:01:00

Aurelio, The path of least resistance, regardless of QE(n), is down. The invisible hand pushes because it can for now. From a long-term perspective, today’s action registers as background noise within powerful secular trends. Emotions based on > read more

They Push Because They Can

Published on 2011-06-08 12:18:00

How are things looking to you? Hope you are well. Best, Chris The many of the aggressive, junior miner shorts will be removed from the trend on a stretcher. Ego always prevents voluntary exit. MOVB(E), a much better indication of overbought/sold th > read more

Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR), Support Has Become Resistance

Published on 2011-06-07 15:33:00

When time is right, silver will run again. Source (Chart): facebook.com [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Stocks Tend to Bottom When Investors/Traders See Only Fear

Published on 2011-06-07 07:04:00

Investors and traders are turning bearish on stocks and the economy. The markets, however, are beginning to send a bullish message. Market internal analysis suggests the stock market is closer to an intermediate-term bottom than top. Who's listening > read more

The Economic Game Continues

Published on 2011-06-07 06:52:00

Candor periodically squeeks pass the economic spin masters. Even pieces of the truth must be softened. Headline: China official says U.S. could pursue weak dollar policy China should guard against risks from "excessive" holdings of U.S. assets as > read more

China Has Divested 97 Percent of Its Holdings in U.S. Treasury Bills

Published on 2011-06-06 20:26:00

Follow the money and ignore the rest. China has dropped 97 percent of its holdings in U.S. Treasury bills, decreasing its ownership of the short-term U.S. government securities from a peak of $210.4 billion in May 2009 to $5.69 billion in March 2011 > read more

The Continuing Debt Implosion Will Force More QE

Published on 2011-06-06 11:46:00

John, The situation is a bit more complicated than experts are willing or capable of recognizing. Personal and professional ties ALWAYS skew interpretations. The message of the market always trumps personal interpretation. QE, either QE1, QE2, QE > read more

State, local governments set to see record job cuts, layoffs

Published on 2011-06-06 06:44:00

The public sector, a huge employer for USA, Inc, continues to shed jobs at an alarming rate. Public sector job destruction is certain to pressure personal consumption which has become a critical and unbalanced component of national income (see chart > read more

Open Interest Reveals Yet Another Layer Within The Footprint of Control

Published on 2011-06-05 09:27:00

Alonzo, Training Day Source: hark.com A sharp increase is paper supply, short positions in excess of deliverable metal, has been used to cap demand surges since 2001. Once a paper operation breaks the short-term trend, the ensuing computer-drive > read more

Concentrated Long Buying In Silver

Published on 2011-06-05 07:44:00

All previous up phases have been preceded by statistically concentrated long buying and/or short liquidation. Silver has been displaying concentrated long buying since late May. A strong bottom or base will form if shorts begin to liquidate en masse > read more

Weak Labor Market Equals More QE(n)

Published on 2011-06-03 10:53:00

The US economy has seen some job creation in excess of labor force expansion (needs), but as the chart below suggests it’s not robust. Also, participation of rate of the birth/death model in job creation is beginning to climb. Smart money will an > read more

Emotions Override Discipline

Published on 2011-06-02 10:16:00

Fear and greed see only the obvious. That is, fear sees fear, and greed sees greed. Discipline already a weak component of trading/investing strategy tends to disappear with the emergence of emotions. The equity bears' egos are so busy mauling the > read more

Action vs. Political ‘Talk’

Published on 2011-06-02 09:55:00

One of Jim’s favorite phrase is (between a) rock and hard place. Either spend and kick the depressionary can down the road a little longer, or face the economic and social consequences of domestic and international debt implosion right now. There > read more

Increasing Finite Supply During Periods of Infinite Monetary Expansion Won't Contain Price

Published on 2011-06-02 08:07:00

Fundamental forces such as supply and demand have far less influence on price than currency devaluation. The constant currency price of oil, while upward sloping over the long term, remains subdued below the median zone since 2008. While headline s > read more

Shale gas ‘fracking’ halted after possible quake link

Published on 2011-06-02 07:59:00

Already under fire over perceived threats to local water sources, the natural gas industry is facing a new challenge: earthquakes. A small energy company halted its shale gas drilling and hydraulic fracturing program in Britain after two mild earthq > read more

U.S.A., Energy Exporter?

Published on 2011-06-02 07:35:00

Hi Eric, Less than a decade ago, major American energy companies were investing billions in constructing new terminals for importing liquefied natural gas. Today, some of those same companies are contemplating spending billions to retrofit those fac > read more

Morning Comments on Gold and Silver

Published on 2011-06-02 06:50:00

Morning Comments on Gold and Silver: Retail money (nonreportable traders) tends to be statistically concentrated on the short side at tradable bottoms. There’s still a lot of money hanging around the long side in the silver market. Expect retail > read more

Prepare for More Money Printing

Published on 2011-06-02 06:32:00

The US economy simply cannot grow fast enough to mitigate its debt burden. Money printing or currency devaluation is the only feasible and politically acceptable solution. QE(n), direct or indirect, will continue because of the size of the burden and > read more

State Budgets Still Hemorrhaging Red

Published on 2011-06-02 06:21:00

A litte job creation aided by massive federal stimulus has helped states keep their heads above water since 2009. Federal assistance runs out in 2012, though. Unfortunately, as suggested below very few structural changes have been made to turn red > read more

Stocks sink as banks slash jobs outlook

Published on 2011-06-01 13:48:00

Afternoon Observations: Watch leveraged money flows into the decline. Is the equity dip being purchased or sold? Daily headlines rarely reflect capitals' true intentions. Slashing the outlook implied strength in the jobs market. Job creation until > read more

Retest of Support As Resistance

Published on 2011-06-01 11:58:00

Silver, driven by hyperinflation, will resume its run once the underside kiss (smooch) is complete. Gold to Silver Ratio: [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Sound of Inevitability

Published on 2011-06-01 10:56:00

Can you hear that (Mr. Anderson)? That is the sound of inevitability. The outflows of capital from the U.S. Dollar (United States, Inc) will accelerate as long as taxation and spending remain unchecked. Capital always votes with its feet and will > read more

(Don't Fear) The Repear

Published on 2011-06-01 09:36:00

Some good lyrics and trading advice – “Don't Fear the Reaper.” Headlines and experts, often agents of the trading sharks, convince retail money that the reaper stalks every corner of uncertainty. The picking of pockets through predictability > read more

Gold Stocks Action Providing Technical Confirmation

Published on 2011-06-01 08:32:00

The technical message in the gold stock sector has begun to confirm the bullish setups in the leveraged markets. This combined setup suggests, like equities, an unexpected bullish outcome this summer/fall. Junior Gold Miners Index to Gold Ratio: > read more

Utah Law Makes Coins Worth Their Weight in Gold (or Silver)

Published on 2011-06-01 07:04:00

Right now this law is largely symbolic. The next step in the process would be a transition from political pocket into monetary competition. Monetary competition tends to create views behind bars. Headline: Utah Law Makes Coins Worth Their Weight > read more

Front page News Hiding Within The Stream of Headline Noise

Published on 2011-05-31 09:26:00

Below is a classic example of front page news hiding within the stream of headline noise. Damn straight another crisis is coming. Nothing has changed. As long balance sheet valuation fibs pass as facts, time and greed will spawn another crisis wit > read more

Real Estate Is Not Recovering

Published on 2011-05-31 08:48:00

Headlines and media outlets have interpreted the resiliency in home prices since 2009 as a sign of recovery in the battered sector. Investors and potential home owners rushing to secure great deal will only find themselves squeezed by another round > read more

Sell In May And Go Away Poll

Published on 2011-05-31 07:12:00

So far only 16% of the poll respondents voted no in “Stocks: Sell in May and go away” trading poll. Nearly 70% either voted yes or preferred to remain on the forecasting fence. My response to the 16% minority is I’m with you. Leveraged money > read more

Spreading Activity Helps Establish Duration of Paper Operations

Published on 2011-05-30 08:04:00

The study of spreading position of non-commercial traders can be most useful futures and options market analysis. Statistical analysis of spreading activity can provide insight to the duration of paper market ‘operations’ in the precious metals m > read more

Nothing Has Changed!

Published on 2011-05-29 08:23:00

Jim, A pause in a secular up trend, regardless of the spin and political rhetoric, does not represent change. Change cannot be averted by talk and meaningless dog-and-pony show style actions. The flow of funds report reveals that domestic non-fina > read more

Spidey Senses Tingling In The Bond Market

Published on 2011-05-28 11:10:00

1970's cartoons rock! It appears that Fred's spidey senses are tingling. A quick glance at the computer analysis reveals statistical concentration by ‘deep pockets’. Perhaps Fred is really Peter Parker? US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And US Tre > read more

Revaluation vs. Remonetization of Gold

Published on 2011-05-27 14:19:00

John, Which came first the chicken or the egg? Evolution suggests the chicken, but that's another discussion. The re-monetization of gold will occur at higher price, so technically, it’s still nothing more than a revaluation within a decaying mo > read more

Gold's Equilibrium Price Is Rising

Published on 2011-05-27 07:43:00

Gold's equilibrium price is rising. The movement of capital suggests that 'smart money' knows why. Gold equilibrium without Mainland China Adjustment is $16,679 Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors (FDHBFIN) and the Equilibriu > read more

Gold Is Debt

Published on 2011-05-26 14:31:00

Excessive debt creation leads to currency debasement, either through a reduction of percentage fineness and/or the weight of gold or silver coin or excessive fiat money creation. This, in turn, causes an upward revaluation of sound money (gold) via h > read more

Gold's Revaluation Underway

Published on 2011-05-26 09:55:00

Gold's great revaluation continues to progess without a hint of understanding from the public. Headline: Bid to Use Gold as Collateral Advances Investors are closer to being able to use gold as a trading security after a European parliamentary com > read more

Morning Silver Comments

Published on 2011-05-26 08:48:00

It's options expiration week in the precious metals. This suggests volatility, particularily for silver. Observations: Physical demand for silver remains hot The silver futures market remains in backwardation. Jim Turk explains it best, Markets (s > read more

Demand for Long-Lasting Goods Falls by the Largest Amount in 6 Months

Published on 2011-05-26 06:45:00

Real or constant currency new orders of durable goods - ex. defense and aircraft have contracting consistently since 2001. The real economy remains weak and highly dependent on currency devaluation, commonly known as QE, to maintain the illusion of > read more

Greek Commissioner warns about leaving euro

Published on 2011-05-25 13:14:00

Capital anticipates while politicians talk of possibilities. Euro gold at new highs reflects capital voting with their feet about the future of the EU. The same can be said for U.S. dollar gold. Euro Gold: A Greek EU Commissioner warned that the > read more

Mark Haines Dies: CNBC Anchor Dead At 65

Published on 2011-05-25 10:20:00

Mark Haines Dies: CNBC Anchor Dead At 65 [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Bearish Setup In U.S. Dollar Underway

Published on 2011-05-25 08:25:00

Bullish setups in gold, silver, stocks, and commodities are confirmed by a bearish count (setup) in the U.S. dollar. Ignore the newswire and follow the money. U.S. Dollar Index and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted > read more

Court Orders New Jersey to Increase Aid to Schools

Published on 2011-05-24 15:18:00

Public spending deemed a constitution right in NJ. QE cannot stop because the system is utterly dependent on it. The late run in gold and silver suggests the market understands this reality. Headline: Court Orders New Jersey to Increase Aid to Sc > read more

Coffee price hikes will bring tough wake-up calls

Published on 2011-05-24 13:08:00

The seeds of hyperinflation have been sown. Soon the public will have to deal with the harvest. Coffee drinkers are facing a tough wake-up call: Retailers are finding it increasingly difficult to hold the line as rising commodities prices percolate > read more

Things Not As They Appear In Equities

Published on 2011-05-24 12:19:00

Flavor-of-the-day experts cite "Sell in May and Go Away" trading logic as the motivation for turning bearish. My personal rebuttal to this argument would be hogwash! Retail money, chronic tail chasers, has become increasing bearish into weakness (s > read more

Retail Money Chases Its Tail

Published on 2011-05-24 10:24:00

Retail money chases its tail while connect players setup the market. Yesterday's commentary, Invisible Hand of Control In Crude Oil, discussed the setup well ahead of the newswire flash. Headline: Crude Oil Rises as Dollar Slips, Goldman Sachs Boost > read more

Words of Wisdom Found Within The Daily Noise

Published on 2011-05-24 08:34:00

Great observations form Dow Theory Letter’s Richard Russell, Last Saturday Faye and I had coffee at the Pannikin, one of our local coffeehouses. A cup of decaf sells for two dollars. The place was busy with people eating lunch, talking or just dri > read more

Fear Sees Only The Obvious In Copper

Published on 2011-05-23 12:33:00

Screaming sell when prices are falling is comparable to yelling fire in a crowded movie theater. This technique is effective in the trading world because the flight or fight response is difficult to suppress. Discipline supported by knowledge is cr > read more

Invisible Hand of Control In Crude Oil

Published on 2011-05-23 12:12:00

The invisible hand of control is not restricted to the gold and silver market. The well-defined and recognizable money flow footprint can be found in the crude oil market. Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion Index (DI): Prices will continue t > read more

Empty Your Pockets With A Handshake And Smile

Published on 2011-05-23 09:37:00

If you feel like a dog chasing its tail in gold, silver, even stocks, it’s time for a new strategy. Certain players will empty your pockets while you shake their hand in gratitude for 'good' information. You’re either a buyer or seller. Fence > read more

A More Detailed Analysis of Silver Money Flows

Published on 2011-05-23 07:30:00

Denny, Short answers, no and no. Follow the money and watch the cycle dates. Silver is an extremely wild market, so the base formation will be bumpy. Connected money has been aggressively long buying into weakness despite constant headlines pushi > read more

Illinois on the Brink of Financial Disaster

Published on 2011-05-23 07:13:00

Illinois, California, Wisconsin, New Jersey, New York, etc. are all near brink of financial disaster. Cutting spending as the economy rolls over is political suicide. This means the economic can will be kicked down the road, i.e. issuing more debt > read more

States shorten duration for unemployment benefits

Published on 2011-05-22 19:36:00

Yet another reason QE(n) will continue. Some of the states that have drained their unemployment insurance funds are cutting the number of weeks that a laid-off worker can count on those benefits. Legislators are trying to limit tax increases for bu > read more

Major Cycle Date Approaching & Money Is Moving

Published on 2011-05-22 08:23:00

As long as the public embraces flavor-of-the-day analysis as explanation for short-term price action, they will never acquire the vision to anticipate trend inflections. Trend inflections are a study of TIME and movement of money despite loud, consen > read more

The Correlation Between Gold and Gold Stocks Breathes Over The Short-Term

Published on 2011-05-22 07:31:00

Thanks for sharing Noah The only opinion that matters is the message of the market. The market is bullish on gold and miners. This means I am bullish on gold and miners until that message changes. TA’s “three taps and out” has been complete > read more

Home Sellers Provide Last-Resort Loans

Published on 2011-05-20 14:03:00

An increasing number of desperate buyers and sellers are reaching agreements that traditional, non-securitized lending conduits would not touch. Signs of credit strain are everywhere to be seen for those willing to look. Sue and Douglas Reed knew n > read more

Hey Gold Bugs There's Strength In Numbers

Published on 2011-05-20 09:56:00

1.3 billion Chinese and 1.1 billion Indians are buying physical gold. The game of perception uses labels such as gold bugs and ‘out-of-touch morons’ (read between the lines on F-TV or similar) to create an emotional response despite the message > read more

Mailbox - Unlimited FDIC Insurance

Published on 2011-05-19 12:30:00

Hello Eric - I always read your emails. For your information, there is unlimited FDIC insurance on all checking and non-interest bearing accounts in US banks through December 31, 2012: On November 9, 2010, the FDIC issued a Final Rule implementin > read more

Silver Will Rise To Throw Hands Again

Published on 2011-05-19 09:13:00

Critical support tends to be tested as resistance. As expected, a technical kiss of previous support as resistance is underway in the gold to silver ratio (GSR). Silver transformation from investment darling to pariah in the eyes of many traders, ex > read more

Fed considers tighter credit as economy improves

Published on 2011-05-18 15:10:00

Key word here is considers. Debate and action are two separate issues. Enacting policies to tighten credit while recent data reveals a broad based contraction would be politically unwise. The Federal Reserve last month began debating how it should > read more

US Housing Starts Supports Continuation of QE(n)

Published on 2011-05-18 14:38:00

QE(n), either direction or indirect, will continue well after June 2011. The sharp and unexpected deterioration in US housing starts trend illustrates why. Housing Starts And Change YOY Headline: U.S. Housing Starts Unexpectedly Fall to 523,000 > read more

Fed Easing Policy Driving Rates Lower-Ironically

Published on 2011-05-18 12:12:00

The market, not the Fed, sets interest rates. Interest rates are heading lower, counter to what many in the bond market thought might happen as the Federal Reserve reaches the end of its quantitative easing program. The 10-year yield Tuesday slipp > read more

Gold Shares Are Raising Dividends

Published on 2011-05-18 09:44:00

Gold companies from emerging to major producers, unbeknownst to most investors – even within the dedicated gold community, have slowly begun the process of issuing and raising dividends. Investors, often blinded by fear and emotions generated by e > read more

Competition To Change The Landscape of Control

Published on 2011-05-18 08:42:00

Competition always changes the landscape of control. It will be interesting to see how the COMEX money flows will adjust to this news. Headline: Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange Receives Trading Authorisation From Securities and Futures Commission T > read more

Liquidity-Based Rather Than Fixed Gold Standard

Published on 2011-05-18 06:32:00

A fixed gold standard will not stop the boom/bust cycle of credit and debt that accompanies economic expansions and contractions. People often forget that the gold standard did not prevent the Great Depression. This is why any 'gold standard' must > read more

Public Confidence Is Fickle, Be Prepared

Published on 2011-05-17 06:13:00

Public confidence is fickle. One minute everything seems ‘normal’ and the next all hell is breaking loose. Yes, the dominoes that started falling in 2008 have not stopped. Does the public recognize the severity of the risks (leverage within th > read more

I Haven`t Shorted Bonds Yet. I Am Going To Start Shorting Soon, Jim Rogers

Published on 2011-05-16 18:42:00

Perhaps Jim Rogers 'sees' the formation of another bearish setup in the bond market. I haven't shorted bonds yet, but you have a very good memory. I'm going to start shorting bonds soon. In fact, maybe when we finish this I might go over and short s > read more

Unusual Credit Trends In Commercial Banking

Published on 2011-05-16 14:17:00

Fractional reserve banking is like a shark, credit must continue to expand (swim) or it faces death. This explains the unprecedented panic, as reflected by the speed and magnitude of the coordinated quantitative easing, to unclog the credit markets a > read more

Debt limit reached, US halts 2 pension investments

Published on 2011-05-16 13:46:00

Headline gives new meaning to Alan Parson's Project song entitled Games People Play, 1980. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday that he will immediately halt investments in two big government pension plans so the government can continue > read more

Never Say Never, Shorts Are Concentrating In Bond Market

Published on 2011-05-16 10:54:00

The debt issuance game is so important that semantics matter. The parsing of Bill Gross's words represents a sign of respect for being one of the best of the best in the debt market. The message of the market, however, supercedes the words of any i > read more

Gold and Oil Playing A Similar Game

Published on 2011-05-16 08:36:00

Another weak to strong hand transfer to reestablish control of the trend. This transfer will create another professional entry point soon. CrudeOil (WTI) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weigh > read more

Gold Market, "Stealing Candy From A Baby" Setup

Published on 2011-05-16 06:50:00

I have used idioms like "stealing candy from a baby" to describe the money flows during paper operations in gold. (1) Price decline creates fear (2) Headlines reinforce the fear (3) Control of trend is transferred from weak to strong hands (4) Repea > read more

Jim Rogers Says Dollar Is Long-Term ‘Total Disaster’

Published on 2011-05-16 06:36:00

While certain interests continue to talk up the dollar to shape perceptions, there’s little they can do to alter economic reality. Currency debasement (printing) has never provided the foundation for stable, long-term economic growth. History wil > read more

Bullish Setup in Copper

Published on 2011-05-15 08:19:00

Analysts have been using words such as “troubling” and “ominous” to describe copper's recent decline. In recent weeks, metals of all sorts--precious and industrial--have taken a beating in a major selloff in the commodities market. Experts c > read more

Debt Ceiling More Like Line In The Sand Than Fixed Structure

Published on 2011-05-12 13:12:00

The ‘debt ceiling’ is more like a line in the sand to be casually stepped over than a fixed overhead structure. Headline: Treasury Auctions To Take US Over Debt Ceiling On Monday The Treasury Department auctioned $56 billion in new debt Tuesda > read more

Dr. Copper? More Like Dr. Liquidity

Published on 2011-05-12 12:41:00

"Dr. Copper" is one of most over-hyped economic indicators out there. The real economic is far too complex to be simplified into follow Dr. Copper. Besides, copper like stocks, industrial and agricultural commodities are being driven more by Dr. L > read more

Fundamentals: Money Out > Money In

Published on 2011-05-12 07:11:00

The sell off in gold and silver is nothing more than a transfer of control from weak to strong hands. These markets will turn, unexpectedly so in the headlines, once the paper fuel has been exhausted and concentration of funds emerges. Why? The fu > read more

Consumers more sensitive to rising prices and shrinking portion sizes

Published on 2011-05-12 07:07:00

Some might call it a cost push inflationary diet. Rising gas prices in the US are being blamed for more expensive groceries, smaller restaurant portions and a hike in restaurant prices, says a new report released Monday. And that translates to a re > read more

US house price drop accelerates

Published on 2011-05-11 08:45:00

Long-term readers should not be shocked by this news. The real estate decline began as a slow motion train wreck in 2001. It picked up speed in 2005. The trend in real, currency adjusted prices, illustrates the both past, present, and future pain > read more

To Quote A Friend, We’re Nowhere Near a Top in Gold!

Published on 2011-05-11 08:26:00

While the ebb and flow is becoming more violent in gold and silver, its increasing amplitude does not alter the secular trend. A parabolic or extended run, like clown at a formal business convention, will be obvious. The acceleration from the prima > read more

Ireland Is Not The United States

Published on 2011-05-10 12:24:00

Ireland is not the US. The US can issue debt in the same currency that it prints. The printing press solution is not an option for Ireland. With that said, only the naive would assume that all 'options' will not be considered if the printing solut > read more

There's No 'Money' Gene

Published on 2011-05-10 10:56:00

The vast majority of the headline analysis about oil implies the recovery in price since 2009 has been a direct result of rising demand from the economic recovery. The sharp rebound, however, is largely currency induced. While the slow upward drift > read more

U.S. Mint Gold American Eagle Coin Sales Quicken This Month

Published on 2011-05-09 14:43:00

Forget quicken, gold coins sales will go ballistic once “Three Taps and Out” completes faster than expected. The signs of secular bull market remain clear and obvious, yet despite them emotions of greed and fear rule the short-term. The U.S. Mi > read more

Bearish Setup Forming In US Long Bonds

Published on 2011-05-09 13:15:00

Be wary of 'logical' arguments that lack support from fundamental market drivers. Money flow illustrate the formation of another bearish setup into strength. There's been no buy sign for Treasurys. That fact that Gross, Sinclair, et. al. continue > read more

Gold & Silver: The Path To Concentration of Funds

Published on 2011-05-08 06:58:00

The probability of higher-order trend acceleration increases once the upper channel resistance has been breached. Money has been supporting the breakout by repositioning from short to long as previous resistance is tested as support. This suggests > read more

The coming millionaire boom

Published on 2011-05-06 13:15:00

There's difference between being a millionaire tomorrow and maintaining the purchasing power of a millionaire today. Those that understand the difference store their wealth in a constant currency such as gold, while those that don't just assume one > read more

Retail Money Is Always The Mark

Published on 2011-05-06 12:32:00

As if playing the game was simply this easy. A concentrated short position in oil has existed since February 2011. Expect the ‘concentrated short position’ to be reduced as the backsides of retail money have been chapped into weakness. Crude O > read more

Labor Report Review

Published on 2011-05-06 08:10:00

While the economy is adding jobs, it's still not a strong recovery. Job creation has been largely limited to the service sector of the economy. Birth/Death Model (BDM) Contribution to Nonfarm Net Payrolls (NFP) Added/(Lost) An up trend break of j > read more

There Are Many Parabolic Trend Within A Secular Trend

Published on 2011-05-05 11:09:00

The explosive nature of silver is whipping around retail money like a plastic bag in a strong wind. While the headlines have been citing silver an unsustainable, parabolic trend, they do so from a short-term perspective. ‘Parabolic’ has the Str > read more

Gold Shares: Pessimism + Strong Tape = Accumulation Setup

Published on 2011-05-05 09:01:00

Morning Observations: (1) Retail money and headline analysis reflects pessimism towards the sector. (2) REV(E), trend/tape energy, soaring to new highs while price lags. (3) Observation 1 (Pessimism) + Observation 2 (Strong Tape) = Accumulation S > read more

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough: The U.S. Collapse Will Follow Europe's, And Bernanke Will Be Fired

Published on 2011-05-05 08:16:00

While the vast majority of people remain in denial, their silence has been broken by the growing voice of concern. The point of no return has already been passed. Few know what this really means. The domino effect of debt maturity is coming to Ame > read more

Clorox, with profit falling, raising prices

Published on 2011-05-04 14:38:00

Inflation is contained everywhere but the real world. Inflation and a sour economy eroded profit at Oakland-based Clorox, which has responded by raising store prices, the consumer products maker said Tuesday. Clorox earned $151 million on sales of > read more

Is Gold About to Go Vertical?

Published on 2011-05-04 11:03:00

A bubble implies an unsustainable market. Gold is going up for a reason and will retain much of its value after the great rebalancing. The public has yet to participate in the great secular gold bull market. This will change as they always come late > read more

The Only Thing We Have to Fear is Fear Itself

Published on 2011-05-04 10:48:00

(Link) View more Franklin Delano Roosevelt Sound Clips and Franklin Delano Roosevelt Inaugural Address Sound Clips Follow the money. Headline: Mexico, Russia, Thailand Add $6 Billion of Gold to Reserves, IMF Data Show M > read more

A Picture of Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation

Published on 2011-05-04 10:17:00

Acceleration phases in the ISM's prices paid to PMI ratio illustrate currency induced cost push inflation quite well. ISM Prices Paid Index (PP) to National Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) Ratio: Observations: (1) The recent up tick in the ratio > read more

Ebb and Flow of Greed and Fear Within A Well Defined Trend

Published on 2011-05-04 09:37:00

As Jim has suggested numerous times, margins will be raised until it’s a cash only trade. The headline below describes the classic ebb and flow between greed and fear within well-defined trend. Just last week silver was the hottest, most important > read more

Relax

Published on 2011-05-03 14:38:00

Good advice from Jim. I would add that the movement of money during the decline reveals duration of the paper operation. The footprint of control reveals itself through statistical concentration. The statistical concentration will setup the next > read more

Brother, Can You Spare A Trillion?: Government Gone Wild!

Published on 2011-05-03 12:05:00

Trading computer algorithms are designed to react rather than 'think'. Follow the money during the paper operation. The money flows will setup the next advance in gold. The reasons why are discussed below. [[ This is a content summary only. Visi > read more

Only The Strong Survive or The Meek Shall Inherit the Earth?

Published on 2011-05-03 11:35:00

Those with hedges maintain their purchasing power, i.e. live kings, while the vast majority of the people on the planet struggle to eat and survive. A book called "Origin of Species" proposed a theory of natural selection that states "only the stron > read more

Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR)

Published on 2011-05-02 11:28:00

Morning Observations: (1) Critical support tends to be tested as resistance. (2) Silver has become an explosive market. (3) The lower magnet is not done pulling. Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR), Monthly Average Price: [[ This is a content summary only > read more

Currency Devaluation And Confidence Are Interconnected

Published on 2011-05-02 08:53:00

The seed of inflation were sown long before the "I can't eat an iPod" response. The ‘dance’ between currency devaluation and confidence tends to tenuous and volatile within a purely fiat system. The transition between prices are rising (mild in > read more

Personal Consumption Continues to Soar

Published on 2011-05-02 08:13:00

Personal consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to an all-time high to 71.2%. The US economy continues to be a debt-based, consumption driven economy. The great consumption trend of 1981 and bubble of 2000 has yet to > read more

U.S. gets C credit rating, lower than Mexico

Published on 2011-05-02 06:52:00

Capital understands the importance of ratings from large houses. There’s a big difference between perception and reality in many of the debt-laden economies across the world. The smaller domestic and various international rating agencies often di > read more

Gold-Buying Central Banks May Signal Bullion Extending Record Price Rally

Published on 2011-05-02 06:44:00

The once sellers are becoming big buyers. Central banks that were net sellers of gold a decade ago are buying the precious metal to reduce their reliance on the dollar as a reserve currency, signaling demand that may extend a record rally in prices. > read more

Accumulation In Key Soft Commodities - Opinion vs Message of Market

Published on 2011-05-01 11:23:00

A growing number of experts are beginning to suggest that the commodity rally is beginning to show signs of excess. Be wary of general conclusions based on broad asset class that ignores the movement of leverage money. The message of the market, mu > read more

Opinions Vary On Silver

Published on 2011-04-30 08:30:00

The old World War II slogan "Loose lips might sinks ships" implied that unguarded talk might give useful information to the enemy. Loose lips are suggesting everything from a mania on the verge of collapse to $100 silver by the end of 2011. The r > read more

Does A Rising Trend Suggest Real Estate Is Prospering?

Published on 2011-04-29 09:49:00

No. A rising nominal trend does not necessary suggest prosperity during periods of aggressive currency devaluation. Dow Jones Equity REIT to Gold ratio, the true message of the market, suggests replacing prospering with struggling. Smart money never > read more

'Escape Hatch' Solution

Published on 2011-04-29 09:16:00

Hello Bob, Those with ‘vision’ follow human behavior and the movement of capital, i.e. historical lessons, to anticipate future events. Unfortunately, these lessons also suggest that history rhymes rather more than it repeats. What do we know > read more

Increasing Austerity Programs Will Extend QE

Published on 2011-04-28 16:24:00

The trend towards smaller government, i.e. austerity programs, is not limited to the European Union. While the media may downplay similar problems in the US union, they have not gone unnoticed by capital. As goes austerity, so goes the size of quanti > read more

Don't Blame the Weather

Published on 2011-04-28 14:00:00

Liqudity-driven recovery pushes nominal economic data and equities higher. For example, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CNFAI) and S&P 500 Average The real economy, however, paints a picture of a struggling expansion. For example, Real Bus > read more

Wal-Mart: Our shoppers are 'running out of money'

Published on 2011-04-28 13:18:00

Welcome to the liquidity-driven, debt-laden economic recovery. The demographic of workforce/population reads as follows: (1) the select few prosper, (2) a lot simply try to hang in as long as possible, and (3) the vast majority are squeezed to the > read more

What's To Decide?

Published on 2011-04-28 11:04:00

Below is classic retrospective analysis that tends to favor indecision. Liquidity, provided by currency devaluation, is driving stocks as well as many other assets higher. This continues until the next hemorrhage phase. Hemorrhage phases, or contr > read more

The Game Is Changing As The Waterfall Decline Intensifies

Published on 2011-04-28 08:17:00

Ex post analysis (after the fact) is always easier than ex ante. Unfortunately, often cited retrospective analysis doesn’t help investors anticipate the big and profitable events. Investors with vision anticipate and survive; those without react > read more

QE(N) Does Not End Here!

Published on 2011-04-27 13:20:00

QE(N) will not end in June. It simply morphs into something less obvious. Why initiate another “shock and awe” bond buying program when maturing debt reinvested into Treasuries can do the heavy lifting without unnecessary political attention in > read more

A Balanced Budget Policy Will Have Consequences

Published on 2011-04-27 11:25:00

Balancing the budget within an economic contraction (depression), a popular idea today, is hardly a new. A policy of balancing the budget was adopted by Hoover Administration during the Great Depression in the early 30's. Capital's response to it h > read more

Liquidity Lifts All Boats

Published on 2011-04-27 11:04:00

Liquidity lifts all boats. Some boats rise faster than others. At times I wonder if anyone other than Jim and Dan can recognize a parabolic trend? “Bubbly”, a term often used to describe the action in gold and silver by the media, has a distinc > read more

Case Says U.S. Housing Already Experienced `Double Dip'

Published on 2011-04-27 08:09:00

The trends illustrated below support Karl Case's growing concern about real estate. U.S. Median Home Price (MHP) And MHP to Gold Ratio: S&P Homebuilders Index (HB) AND HB to Gold Ratio: S&P Homebuilders Index (HB) AND HB to U.S. Median Home Pric > read more

State pension crisis balloons

Published on 2011-04-26 14:46:00

This ensures no early, easy, and/or practical exit from liquidity. States are $1.26 trillion in the hole when it comes to their pension and retiree health obligations, according to a report released Tuesday. And taxpayers are ultimately on the hook > read more

Inflation Genie Has Left The Bottle, Not Going Back Easily

Published on 2011-04-26 13:30:00

Babies and possibly PM investors/traders in response to increased volatility are beginning to feel the pinch of rising cost of diapers. The inflation ball is rolling. The talk of containment well after the fact may be good headline fodder, but prac > read more

Silver coin demand outstripping supply

Published on 2011-04-26 13:19:00

The public is just beginning to realize undeniable change has occurred in the silver market. Following yesterday’s spike up to nearly $50 per ounce, the silver price has declined and is currently trading around $46, though at one point earlier tod > read more

Constant Currency Dow Transportation Better Represents the 'Real' Economy

Published on 2011-04-26 09:43:00

Higher stock prices, driven by liquidity (currency devaluation), support the premise of a solid economic recovery. The transportation stocks (transports), like small cap stocks, have always been more sensitive to liquidity. The computer buy program > read more

The Rules Are Changing In Gold And Silver

Published on 2011-04-26 08:08:00

Possibly title rewrite to the headline below could be "Silver surges to All-Time high on Inflation Hedge, Industry Use, Then Gets Bombed Ahead of Two Day Fed Meeting." The disruption of (paper) control has turned silver into a highly-charged and exp > read more

IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

Published on 2011-04-26 08:03:00

We have been talking about this for years. One person's bombshell is another's writing on the wall. The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed. For the first time, the international organization has set a dat > read more

USDA Says Meat Prices to Soar

Published on 2011-04-26 08:00:00

Source: finance.yahoo.com [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Capital Buying Equity Dips

Published on 2011-04-25 12:54:00

Capital understands that currency devaluation (unlimited liquidity) drives up the nominal share prices. Accumulation during the dips illustrates this point. SP 500 And Equity Diffusion Index (DI): [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit > read more

Copper Market

Published on 2011-04-25 11:23:00

Someone is accumulating copper into weakness despite calls that a top has formed. The movement of money, while not concentrated yet, suggests otherwise. Copper (JJC) And Copper Diffusion Index (DI) [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Silver and US Long Bonds Markets

Published on 2011-04-25 10:50:00

Silver, despite the hype generated by price action, is not the market of all markets. It is simply a market under ‘control’ strain. There is only one phrase that characterizes this market – sh*t is a changing. The old setup of shorting strength > read more

What's Driving Equities?

Published on 2011-04-25 09:04:00

Liquidity! The bullish divergence in internal trend energy suggests new nominal highs in stocks in the near future. NYSE Internals: New nominal highs in stocks, however, illustrate neither a bull market nor economic recovery. The real (constant > read more

China should cap forex reserves at 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars: China banker

Published on 2011-04-25 07:37:00

Subtle hints while the public and bulk of the trading world focuses on alternate 'realities.' Remember, China will be unable to sell US Treasuries without destroying price. This, however, does not mean they are exposed. China has been and will con > read more

A Comparison of 1931-1936 and 2008-2013

Published on 2011-04-22 08:24:00

Real (constant currency) federal total receipts continue to contract as the federal budget (Jim's Formula) rolls over. This vicious cycle is characteristic of a Great Depression (or Recession). Vicious cycles are highly dependent on liquidity (quant > read more

China’s Sinopec cuts off oil exports: state media

Published on 2011-04-21 14:25:00

The developments in the Middle East are best described as from "Order to Disorder" has accelerated the concept of "Peak Oil" into "Present Time." Gold will in this situation hold a huge percentage of its Hyperbolic Gain now taking full foundation as > read more

McDonald's warns of higher food inflation

Published on 2011-04-21 14:15:00

McDonald's has warned of higher prices in the future. This is following a similar warning from Wal-Mart. Prices are rising faster than wages and salaries. In other words, the general standard of living is contracting. McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD - > read more

Early Stage Trend Acceleration in Gold, Silver, and Gold Shares

Published on 2011-04-21 12:11:00

While the recent moves in gold and silvers have been impressive, they remain well within historical norms of an accelerating trend. Silver, London P.M. Fixed (Silver) and Z Scores from Primary Trend Gold, London P.M. Fixed (Gold) and Z Scores from > read more

Quiet Acumulation of Gold Shares Since 2009

Published on 2011-04-21 08:52:00

Yesterday I discussed Goldcorp's (GG) building trend energy as representative of the setups within the gold mining space. The gold miners index ETF, a composite of many of the high-quality names in the sector, illustrates the depth of this setup wit > read more

Happy Easter To All

Published on 2011-04-20 19:54:00

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Follow The Money

Published on 2011-04-20 16:22:00

The zombie logic provided by the mainstream headlines obscures an understanding of reality provided by following the money. Follow the money is probably the most important and discussed concept on Insights. Markets At A Glance: Follow The Money W > read more

Perfect Setup In Quality Gold Shares

Published on 2011-04-20 10:28:00

Gold shares are unloved, maybe even hated. This is a perfect setup those that act based on discpline rather than emotion. Take for example, Goldcorp (GG). GG's trend energy and price reflects what is taking placing across many quality names within > read more

Currency-Induced Inflation Driving Asset Prices

Published on 2011-04-20 07:30:00

Currency-induced push inflation has been the dominant driver of price since 2008. Nothing really changes. The vast majority (99%) of the public lives in the economic paradigm of the previous expansion or the world they have come to understand. By > read more

Geithner says "no risk" U.S. will lose AAA rating

Published on 2011-04-20 07:06:00

Rating agencies can see the obvious but will be limited by the phrase "critical to national interests." Does a for sale sign on a car saying NEW make the obvious dents and rust disappear? No. Capital is not swayed by shallow observations. Headlin > read more

Greece facing electricity strikes over austerity

Published on 2011-04-20 07:02:00

The world continues to deal with the ongoing debt crisis. The currency devaluation and austerity programs can lead to disruptions in services once considered birth rights by many. Greece's powerful electricity workers' union says it is considering > read more

The Price of Gold Will Acelerate As Public Recognition Increases

Published on 2011-04-20 07:00:00

The weak dollar drives earnings and stock prices higher. IBM Unfortunately, rising earnings and stock prices are an illusion of currency devaluation. Ounces per share defines the real trend and impact of currency devaluation. IBM to Gold Ratio ( > read more

The Price of Gold Will Accerate As Public Recognition Increases

Published on 2011-04-19 19:05:00

QE to Infinity

Published on 2011-04-19 16:48:00

Who needs another QE program with a perpetual motion machine? Headline: Bernanke May Reinvest Maturing Debt to Avoid ‘Cold Turkey’ End to Stimulus Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may keep reinvesting maturing debt into Treasuries to m > read more

Cash Assets of Commercial Banks Are Soaring

Published on 2011-04-19 12:16:00

The following table continues to reflect continued weakness in commercial bank lending. Particularly alarming is the sharp rise in cash assets as a percent of total bank credit (Cash%TBC). The blue arrow reveals that CASH%TBC is approaching 16%. T > read more

BRICS make move to shove dollar aside

Published on 2011-04-19 09:33:00

This will become a market directed decision. China and four other leading high-growth economies have taken landmark steps toward lowering the importance of the dollar in international financial transactions — part of a seminal shift in the move to > read more

Inflation Watch

Published on 2011-04-19 08:32:00

Another perspective on inflation - U.S. Companies Shrink Packages as Food Prices Rise. Reader Bryan E. wrote to mention: "Over the weekend we had visitors who are in the wholesale food distribution business. They were relating that they had experie > read more

Not Done With The Yen Yet

Published on 2011-04-18 12:41:00

(1) Money positions (2) Ex post headline analysis provides the "reasons" for the public. Smart money is not done with the Yen yet. A rollover in the Yen will likely mark the next phase in the debt crisis. Yen (FXY) and the Commercial (C) Less Nonre > read more

Invisible Hand Pushing Bonds Up At Support

Published on 2011-04-18 12:29:00

The 'invisible hand' is pushing hard to hold support. The bond bears are right, but getting TIME right will not be easy as point, click, and forget. US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And Bond Diffusion Index (DI): Headline: Treasury's Oldest Bonds Sh > read more

S&P cuts long-term outlook for US debt to negative

Published on 2011-04-18 11:29:00

The officially recognized, read as not actual, debt burden remains near record levels. Devaluation, or ongoing default, is and always has been the tool used to manage excessive debt and deficits. The secular up trend in gold during Great Depression > read more

Gold Stocks Have A Secret Weapon Called Dividends

Published on 2011-04-17 19:54:00

Gold stocks might be trading at similar capital appreciation valuations to that of 2009, 1982, 1979, 1960, 1945, and 1933, but let's not forget the power of dividends on total returns over time. Every secular bull sees a surge in dividends that will > read more

Texas University Endowment Storing About $1 Billion in Gold Bars

Published on 2011-04-17 19:38:00

Demand for physical gold is soaring. The University of Texas Investment Management Co., the second-largest U.S. academic endowment, took delivery of almost $1 billion in gold bullion and is storing the bars in a New York vault, according to the fund > read more

Follow the Money In Silver

Published on 2011-04-16 19:48:00

If smart money was turning bearish as suggested below, money flows would be accelerating towards the red rather green line. That is, unless commercial traders are no longer considered ‘smart money’. Don’t count on that. Silver remains a market > read more

Food and gas costs push consumer prices higher

Published on 2011-04-15 11:10:00

Food and gas prices pushing consumer prices higher. So, what's pushing food and gas? The answer is not pixie dust. Americans are paying more for food and gas, a trend that could slow economic growth in the months ahead. The Consumer Price Index rose > read more

Silver - Hot versus Too Hot

Published on 2011-04-15 10:17:00

A thermometer and the discipline to act, helps a traveler of the desert. A trend thermometer, a measure of trend "heat", and the discipline to act when the time is right, helps the traveler of the trend. The natural ebb and flow between silver and > read more

Retail Sales And Quantitative Easing

Published on 2011-04-15 07:05:00

While the ninth straight month of rising retail sales numbers ‘plays’ well for the headlines, it does little to influence capital that knows the difference between nominal and real trends. Nominal prices are rising. Real or currency adjusted pr > read more

"Don't hold your money, go ahead, spend it!"

Published on 2011-04-14 12:05:00

"Don't hold your money, go ahead, spend it!" This classic line from the video below epitomizes not only American (pop) culture but also its lack of understanding of money. Gresham's law that is often worded as "bad money drives out the good". Stor > read more

Don’t Call It a Stimulus: 2012 Election Spending Likely To Top $8B

Published on 2011-04-14 11:39:00

The 2008 election was all about change. The stakes to maintain control have certainly changed (increased). 760M/872 Avg POG = 0.87 2008 8000M/2500 Avg POG = 3.20 2012 The road to the White House is paved with dollar bills... billions of them. Th > read more

Indian Investors Switch to Silver From Gold

Published on 2011-04-14 10:54:00

Increasing marginal demand for physical silver is straining paper control. Paper shuffling can 'handle' only so much demand before a well-defined, two-tiered market (one for physical and another for paper) emerges. Investor confidence that the pap > read more

In A Word - Close

Published on 2011-04-14 10:17:00

Why have Jim Sinclair, Pimco's Bill Gross, and other smart money begun to position against US long bonds? If there's one chart the provides a glimpse into their mind, it might be this one. 30-Year US TBd Yield and Gold London PM Fixed If there's > read more

Small Cap Stocks Reveal The Evolution of Hyperinflation

Published on 2011-04-14 09:37:00

Hyperinflation continues to drive small cap stocks. Prevailing wisdom often suggests other outcomes, which in turn, creates uncertainty paralysis for most investors. Who’s right, the market or prevailing market wisdom? The market is always right > read more

Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure

Published on 2011-04-14 07:08:00

The public is slowly recognizing the hidden inflation that capital markets and shadowstats.com already recognize. The conclusion that standard of livings will continue to drop in the years to come as a result of the debt crisis will gain increasing > read more

IMF says sluggish U.S. growth requires easy money policy

Published on 2011-04-14 06:47:00

Has it ever occurred to anyone that printing money (on going default) might be the strategy to get its debt under control? A closer review of the proposed spending cuts reveals how $38 billion is more like $353 million. The U.S. economic recovery i > read more

Central banks turn net gold buyers, cut euro zone debt: survey

Published on 2011-04-13 20:10:00

This should not surprise anyone here. Central banks turned net buyers of gold last year and cut exposure to debt issued by euro zone members Greece, Ireland and Portugal, an annual survey of the world's reserve managers showed. Source: reuters.com > read more

Silver Doesn't Follow Headline Logic

Published on 2011-04-13 14:31:00

The buy signal of early 2011 has passed for silver. Today's money flow setup is probably best characterized as neutral (statistical unrevealing). Neutral, however, can easily translate into "Silver will Tarnish" to affect a response from computerize > read more

Second Fukushima if Iranian Bushehr activated in May

Published on 2011-04-13 13:32:00

Natural disasters and human error aren't the only means to cripple an nuclear plant. Saudi and Kuwait officials have warned the US that if Iran activates its first nuclear reactor at Bushehr in May as planned, there is a good chance it will blow up > read more

Singapore's SMX launching copper, gold, silver trade

Published on 2011-04-13 13:28:00

Cash settled contracts redirect demand away from physical markets. The weak hands get redirected while the strong hands accumulate. Headline: CORRECTED-Singapore's SMX launching copper, gold, silver trade The Singapore Mercantile Exchange will la > read more

Bullish Internal Setup in Equities

Published on 2011-04-13 09:41:00

Stock market tops usually occur when no one expect them. Investors/traders tend to turn bearish (and bullish) at the wrong times. Nominal bull markets tend to show signs of age before they peak. Negative divergences of market breadth and tape relat > read more

Soldiers die in ambush as Syria protests spread to coast

Published on 2011-04-13 08:02:00

The collapse of paper carries great consequences. Nine Syrian soldiers were killed in an ambush near the port city of Banias, state TV reported, and witnesses reported four protesters being shot dead in the city by security forces and pro-government > read more

Spending Cuts Are A Game of Perception

Published on 2011-04-12 15:41:00

Political posturing over crumbs of much larger deficit pie is nothing more than a game of perception. The Formula below illustrates the depth of the problem in which the solution fools only the fools. Meanwhile, few have noticed a roll over in the > read more

Commodities Moving from Left to Right

Published on 2011-04-12 13:10:00

Talk of a bubble ready to pop is premature. Shorting a trend moving from lower left to upper right is dangerous. Spot Commodity Prices: CRB Spot Index (1947 - Present); 16-Raw Industrial Spot Price (1935-1947); Great Britain Wholesale Price of All > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-04-12 12:49:00

Don, Major retail brokerage outlets offer reliable and competitive electronic platforms. Day trading which is based on turnover can be difficult to control. Great profits are rarely found down the path of heavy turnover. Investing takes disciplin > read more

Follow the Money In Oil

Published on 2011-04-12 11:29:00

Timely comments designed to scare the hell out of the weak hands. Very few coincidences in this business. Crude Oil (WTI) and Crude Oil Diffusion Index (DI) Headline: Oil price drops more than 3 percent Oil tumbled more than 3 percent Tuesday a > read more

Budget tricks helped Obama save programs from cuts

Published on 2011-04-12 11:07:00

Lots of arm waving over nothing. Any material reduction in spending will slow the economy into an election year. No chance. Details of last week's hard-won agreement to avoid a government shutdown and cut federal spending by $38 billion were relea > read more

Valuations Are Not Driving Equity Prices

Published on 2011-04-12 10:03:00

The study of history must include a comprehesive analysis that exceeds at least one economic and confidence cycle within two different financial centers. Conculsions based on anything shorter, such as historical 'valuations' within varying degrees o > read more

It's All About Control in Gold and Silver, Until It Isn't

Published on 2011-04-12 07:20:00

As Jim writes in Slow Rise To The Top gold and silver are all about control. The scatter plot below reveals one aspect of this control. This scat plot illustrates two-dimensional map between connected money flows and price changes in the paper marke > read more

The Power of Perspective - Infinite Liquidity Or Be Damned

Published on 2011-04-11 14:26:00

If the following quote fails to clear up any doubt about the US's commitment to infinite liquidity as a means of supporting the ‘economic recovery’, you're not reading between the lines. Gold understands this commitment – probably better under > read more

Roth IRAs: A real 'fiscal Frankenstein'

Published on 2011-04-11 13:12:00

As long as the proposed spending cuts remain merely crumbs on the plate of a massive spending pie, it's only a matter of time before the rules change not only for Roths but also other notable government sponsored retirement plans. Headline: Roth IR > read more

The Dollar's Goose Has Been Cooked

Published on 2011-04-11 09:09:00

While the dollar's goose has been cooked, it seems few have noticed. The old phrase, "asleep at the switch" comes to mind when reviewing the headlines in 2011. Dan Norcini’s comments about the possibility of a ‘waterfall decline’ in the dolla > read more

Japanese Yen

Published on 2011-04-11 08:11:00

Repositioning within the trend, i.e. the setup, almost always reveals itself in the leveraged markets. The pattern of inflows into weakness and outflows into strength has not changed since 2007. This is important, because a change will occur as the > read more

Iceland Rejects Icesave Debt Deal

Published on 2011-04-11 08:03:00

Anger of the public towards bailout of the banks has spread across the globe. Voters in Iceland have rejected a government-approved deal to repay Britain and the Netherlands $5 billion for their citizens' deposits in the failed online bank Icesave, > read more

'Control' Strain In Silver

Published on 2011-04-10 07:35:00

The normal footprint of control in the silver market is to buy weakness and sell strength. While the diffusion index (DI) reveals this pattern, its failure to push below the previous low during the latest price surge to new highs illustrates a marke > read more

Shame Is Often The Motivation

Published on 2011-04-08 11:42:00

We are all guilty of walking down the path of life with our heads down at a quickened pace through its scary sections. Inevitably, seemingly without reason, we all stop, look around, and realize despite our shallow efforts to persevere, the path can > read more

What's Driving Oil?

Published on 2011-04-08 10:10:00

The price of oil is not solely a manifestation of risk and fear from the Middle East. Currency devaluation, referred to as push inflation by Jim Sinclair, is playing a far-more significant role. Real (currency adjusted) oil prices remain within a d > read more

The Message From The Gold Market

Published on 2011-04-08 07:27:00

It wasn't long ago when the newswire were populated with headlines suggesting caution towards gold. Now that prices have soared, fear has been replaced with greed. That’s how it works. That's why it’s best to ignore the headlines and listen to > read more

Stocks Sink After News of Japan Earthquake

Published on 2011-04-07 09:53:00

Massive earthquakes spawn massive aftershocks. Stocks turned sharply lower after news of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake east of Sendai Honshu, in northern Japan, which triggered a tsunami alert. Source: cnbc.com [[ This is a content summary only. Visi > read more

Bring on QE3! “We Can’t Afford NOT to Do More,” Romer Says

Published on 2011-04-07 08:44:00

Kick the can down the road to live another day or face the economic consequences here and now? The choice will be made to kick the can down the road when cries of “save me” intensify as an election year approaches. The only unknown is whether t > read more

Video

Published on 2011-04-06 14:28:00

Paul Gunter, Beyond Nuclear talks about California rainwater 181 times above drinking water standards for radioactive iodine-131 & tones of radioactive waste gushing into the ocean. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full link > read more

Negative Techncial Setup In US Long Bonds

Published on 2011-04-06 13:49:00

The long bond capital appreciation index which ignores income return reveals technical weakness in the nominal trend. The rising wedge since 1981 has already broken and topping formation is nearly complete. Bill Gross’s recent withdraw from US Tr > read more

Physical Gold Leads Gold Shares

Published on 2011-04-06 13:26:00

No disagreement that the gold shares shorts are going to get roasted. I would only add that physical bullion has led the gold shares higher since 1971. The "power of gold shares" (in comparison to gold), often ignored in the short-term, is the incr > read more

Long Bond Bear Must Follow The Money

Published on 2011-04-06 11:17:00

For those would joined me on our safari in Africa you might recall the key point in our discussions on markets. To quote, "There is an opportunity for all of us. It is going into a different business. You are going to become Long Bond Bear Inc. As > read more

California Pension-Padding Exploits Loopholes for Thousands of Retirees

Published on 2011-04-06 10:33:00

While fiscal austerity (balancing the budget) might resonate with voters today, it will only exacerbate the problems that intensified in 2008. The public sector dwarfs that of the private. Cutting jobs, salaries and benefits, right or wrong, will r > read more

Inflation inflicting pain, as wages fail to keep pace with price hikes

Published on 2011-04-06 10:14:00

There is no such thing as an economic free lunch. Currency devaluation, a form of ongoing default, carries the direct consequence of inflation. Standard of livings decline when wages and benefits fail to keep pace with inflation. Expect this trend > read more

These are all California State Agencies

Published on 2011-04-06 07:12:00

A look at socialism from Bob These are all California State Agencies California Academic Performance Index (API) * California Access for Infants and Mothers * California Acupuncture Board * California Administrative Office of the Courts * Californi > read more

Fed should focus on inflation, not jobs

Published on 2011-04-05 12:33:00

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has said he's 100% certain that he will know when the Fed needs to raise rates to fight inflation. Interest rates are driven by market forces, not Fed policy. Many investors will learn this lesson at at great expense to th > read more

McDonald's to hire 50,000 workers - in 1 day

Published on 2011-04-04 20:53:00

Can we call this the hamburger flippers' recovery? Headlines: McDonald's to hire 50,000 workers - in 1 day McDonald's said Monday that it is planning a one-day hiring spree of 50,000 new workers on April 19 for its U.S. restaurants. McDonald's (M > read more

Fed's Low Interest Rates Crack Retirees' Nest Eggs

Published on 2011-04-04 16:14:00

A nest egg based on the assumption of stable growth and currency never does well during a debt crisis stabilized by currency devaluation. The unfortunate and cold market reality is either adapt or be left for dead. Forrest Yeager, a 91-year-old res > read more

Bull Markets Pronounced Dead In Headlines Well Before the Fact

Published on 2011-04-04 13:18:00

A nominal bull market will be pronounced dead in the headlines well before the fact. Equity rallies, like humans, tend to show signs of aging before they die. Negative divergences such as price relative to internal market strength often reflect an > read more

Silver Transition From Order To Disorder

Published on 2011-04-04 10:02:00

The backwardation in the silver market reflect unprecedented physical demand for silver. What price relieves the backwardation - $40, $50, or higher? Only the market knows for sure. The trading sharks smell blood and will continue pushing a market st > read more

Soaring Dividends During A Debt Crisis Don’t Mean Much

Published on 2011-04-02 16:42:00

What do soaring dividends in 2011 suggest? The return of investor confidence? The economy is strengthening? Stocks are a good buy? History says that soaring dividends during debt crisis reflects none of the above. Dividends soared into 1938, yet r > read more

The Battle To Control The Trend Is Fierce

Published on 2011-04-02 12:42:00

Weakness disguised as strength in the labor market had very little to do with gold’s trading on Friday. A surge in shorts by connected money foreshadowed weakness well before the labor report. Gold London P.M Fixed and the Commercial Traders COT > read more

Gold Is A Product of Debt, Not Business Activity

Published on 2011-04-01 11:27:00

Jim is absolutely right, debt (and the confidence in the currency that denominates its) drives gold. Currency devaluation, what the public recognizes as inflation, increases as the debt burden rises. Debt Cones: The greater the debt burden, the g > read more

Job Creation Remains Weak

Published on 2011-04-01 08:06:00

Job creation remains weak despite the attention grabbing headlines. Headline analysis, designed to generate clicks, has a tendency to selectively filter information. A deeper look at the numbers and trends suggests that while the numbers look good j > read more

Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon expects inflation

Published on 2011-03-31 13:51:00

It’s getting more difficult to relegate the inflation problem as a fringe argument. Hyperinflation has always been the inevitable consequence of excessive money creation (i.e. printing money – also known as quantitative easing (QE) today). The > read more

Liquidity Is Grease For The Wheels In Equities

Published on 2011-03-31 10:40:00

Liquidity, also known as quantitative easing (QE), is grease for the wheel to higher nominal stock prices. NYSE Composite and Internal Force The Fed is hinting about ending QE in June 2011. As the old saying goes, talk is cheap. QE, announced, un > read more

Irish prepare to learn full cost of banking crisis

Published on 2011-03-31 10:19:00

If the full cost were disclosed by the stress test(s), the consequences to "the game" supporting the banking system would be headline news. This is nothing more than a controlled release of selective information. Ireland prepared to learn the full > read more

It's All About Debt And Currency Devaluation

Published on 2011-03-30 09:16:00

Any discussion about the direction of the secular trend in U.S. dollar that fails to mention debt is incomplete. The dollar is headed lower because currency devaluation is the only viable political option to handle industrialized nations' excessive d > read more

GSR Says It's Game On For QE

Published on 2011-03-30 08:28:00

All global citizens, Chinese included, are hedging against soaring inflation caused by infinite quantitative easing (QE) through the accumulation of gold. The gold to silver ratio (see below) represents that it's game on for QE. Gold to Silver Ratio > read more

Setbacks mount in Japan at leaking nuclear plant

Published on 2011-03-30 08:10:00

Setbacks mounted Wednesday in the crisis over Japan's tsunami-damaged nuclear facility, with nearby seawater testing at its highest radiation levels yet and the president of the plant operator checking into a hospital with hypertension. Nearly three > read more

Utah: Forget dollars. How about gold?

Published on 2011-03-29 19:33:00

History being made one day at a time. The big legal change in Utah is that the state tax code now treats gold and silver coins -- issued by the U.S. Mint -- as currency rather than an asset. That means no capital gains or other state taxes will be l > read more

Food inflation kept hidden in tinier bags

Published on 2011-03-29 15:32:00

We've talked about shrinking total serving sizes often hidden behind the illusion of similar sized packages for years - see 2010 commentary). Perhaps, the public is finally catching on to the shell game? My gut reaction says don't count on it. I st > read more

Regulators define "safe" home loan

Published on 2011-03-29 11:53:00

It only stands to reason that "safe" must be defined by regulations since "unsafe" cannot be reflected by current prices. A distinction between the two does exist. Don’t expect this distinction to be recognized as long as the world struggles to > read more

Real Estate Far Worse Than Advertised

Published on 2011-03-29 10:56:00

Falling home prices represents a classic illustration to the old saying, adding insult to injury. Home prices despite on going currency devaluation continue to fall in most major US cities. In other words, the headlines ‘slant’, even the more > read more

A Picture of Growing Concern

Published on 2011-03-29 08:36:00

Below is a picture of liquidity. St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base: Below is a picture of concern. An up tick in historically low yielding cash assets suggests growing concern within the banking system. A breach of the 2010 highs cannot be ignore > read more

Buffett Says Buy Businesses Over Long-Term Bonds as Dollar Value to Erode

Published on 2011-03-28 15:59:00

This also includes gold. Though, don't look for this suggestion to get a lot of headline space from notable names. Warren Buffett, the billionaire who urged Congress in 2009 to guard against inflation, said investors should avoid long-term fixed-inc > read more

Here Comes The Fear

Published on 2011-03-28 14:48:00

It's ok to buy volatility, as long as it does not include gold? Gold is not only a favorite currency of 19th century cowboys and druids but also global citizens of the 21 century. This ‘favoritism’ manifests itself as rising gold prices across a > read more

N.Y. governor, legislature agree on state budget

Published on 2011-03-28 10:14:00

Any material reduction in consumption as a direct result of spending cuts from the States will be met with additional liquidity. Have not doubt about it. Either direct or indirect injections, consumption cannot falter. Consumption, representing ov > read more

Falling Supply, Rising Demand & Currency Devaluation

Published on 2011-03-28 09:29:00

Falling supply and rising demand within backdrop currency devaluation is an explosive cocktail driving commodity markets. Headline: USDA confirms corn exports of 1.25m tons to anonymous destination Meanwhile, US inventories of corn for 2010-11 are > read more

Watching For Retest of Support as Resistance

Published on 2011-03-28 09:11:00

An underside kiss of previous support as resistance in the U.S. dollar Index is quite likely over the short-term. The testing process will bring volatility to gold and silver as connected money quietly repositions into the churn. Volatility tends to > read more

Massachusetts job fair canceled because of lack of jobs

Published on 2011-03-27 19:00:00

Economic spin reaches only so far. A Massachusetts employment organization has canceled its annual job fair because not enough companies have come forward to offer jobs. Richard Shafer, chairman of the Taunton Employment Task Force, says 20 to 25 emp > read more

Japanese Yen

Published on 2011-03-27 14:37:00

Japan's crippling debt rather than official interventions dictates a change in trend for the Yen in the future. Leveraged money will likely lead the change but does not have to pinpoint the exact high. Japanese Yen (FXY) and Yen Diffusion Index (DI) > read more

The Facade Of Recovery Beginning To Crack

Published on 2011-03-26 14:00:00

Capital follows secular trends and breaks in counter trend reactions while headlines focus on the short-term. The facade of a economic recovery is beginning to crack. Any decay in the 'real' economy will be met with additional liquidity. Real Busine > read more

QE to Infinity - Follow The Money

Published on 2011-03-26 08:25:00

QE to Infinity because there is no other functional alternative. The operative word here is "functional." Jim Jim has an uncanny ability to anticipate moves, because he understands the forces driving capital. In other words, Jim follows the money. > read more

Breach suspected at troubled Japanese power plant

Published on 2011-03-25 12:09:00

Reactor three has plutonium. If the protective core has been compromised, the uranium inside could be transmuted into plutonium. Plutonium is extremely toxic to humans. This would be bad development for the Japanese in desperate need of positive news > read more

Should The Government Stop Dumping Money Into A Giant Hole?

Published on 2011-03-25 09:05:00

Source: youtube.com From Bob [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

U.S. Dollar Index

Published on 2011-03-25 08:33:00

The technical position of the dollar remains weak. An underside kiss of previous support as resistance will confirm technical breakdown of consolidation and accelerate selling. U.S. Dollar Index Headline: U.S. Dollar ETF Put-Options Volume Surges > read more

Gold Is Getting Wild, Get Used To It

Published on 2011-03-25 07:06:00

Experts rush to urge caution after an intraday plunge (hit) in gold and silver. They use words like outside reversal day and an unstable parabolic trend. An outside reversal day will be little more than "noise" within a secular trend in a few months, > read more

Watch Consumer Credit

Published on 2011-03-24 16:24:00

Consumer loan growth, largely driven by growth in credit card loan expansion, is beginning to slow after a big surge in early 2010. Are the headlines beginning to reflect a tapped out consumer? Any decrease in consumer loan demand not matched by incr > read more

US Finances Rank Near Worst in the World: Study

Published on 2011-03-24 15:24:00

Tell us something we don't know. The US ranks near the bottom of developed global economies in terms of financial stability and will stay there unless it addresses its burgeoning debt problems, a new study has found. In the Sovereign Fiscal Respons > read more

Euro's Collapse Is Not Unthinkable: Warren Buffett

Published on 2011-03-24 10:47:00

History clearly tells us that all currencies fail in time. The only constant has been gold. At times, it's the centerpiece of commerce, while at others it is considered a barbaric relic of the past. That is, until the past repeats and the public tran > read more

Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR)

Published on 2011-03-24 09:45:00

The market is barking out a clear message, but few seem to be listening. Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR): [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Greed and Fear Often Replace Objective Discipline

Published on 2011-03-24 09:05:00

The old idiom look before you leap is often forgotten in the investment world. Humans have a tendency to get emotional when money is involved. This means that greed and fear rather than objective discipline tend to drive public money decision-makin > read more

Public vs Capital Perceptions

Published on 2011-03-24 07:05:00

Recently headline rhetoric predicted that extreme bullish sentiment readings in late 2010/early 2011 were foreshadowing an equity market crash. Sentiment Survey: The only thing that's crashed is extreme bullish sentiment. The stock market in resp > read more

China May Match India as World's Biggest Gold Consumer on Investor Demand

Published on 2011-03-24 07:00:00

China and India are becoming a growing force in the physical gold market. Chinese consumption of gold may climb to rival that of India, the top user, as investors buy the metal as a store of value, said GFMS Ltd. and INTL FCStone. Demand in China, > read more

Please Support Our Sponsors

Published on 2011-03-23 13:29:00

Please support and/or consider our sponsors. Insights demands effort, excellence, and dedication to provide a unique perspective on the capital markets and economic trends. Economic free lunches, though actively pursued for centuries, do not exist. > read more

Explosive Setup in Gold and Gold Shares

Published on 2011-03-23 10:56:00

Gold, following historical precedence, is leading. Gold led the gold shares until 2010 breakout. The gold shares, despite the constant wall of worry, have played an impressive game of catch since 2009. Gold is currently probing the upper trading c > read more

QE(n) Has No Convenient On/Off Switch

Published on 2011-03-23 09:32:00

Doubt it. The problem is and has always been debt. QE(n) has been and will continue to be used to combat the massive debt burden accumulated during the previous economic expansion. The following chart represents only the officially recognized debt > read more

Gold may hit $5,000 an ounce in 3-4 years: Canadian miners

Published on 2011-03-23 08:30:00

It's easy to discount such as a biased forecast from a gold mining CEO. Rob McEwen is no fool, "Gold is used as insurance for bad governments," Rob McEwen, chairman and chief executive of Minera Andes Inc (MAI.TO) and US Gold Corp (UXG.TO). The inves > read more

Running for the Exits

Published on 2011-03-22 17:10:00

Long bonds will become an investment pariah when confidence breaks - Follow The Money In The Bond Market. Smart money knows it. The wisest and most successful bond investor of all time, Bill Gross, has dumped his bond fund’s $150 billion investmen > read more

Power crumbling, Yemen leader warns of civil war

Published on 2011-03-22 17:06:00

Yemen's U.S.-backed president, his support crumbling among political allies and the army, warned that the country could slide into a "bloody" civil war Tuesday as the opposition rejected his offer to step down by the end of the year. Tens of thousand > read more

Blithely off to war

Published on 2011-03-22 10:08:00

Markets are one of the best sources of intelligence gathering (Intel) on the plant. This makes them an excellent barometer to success and failure of political policies and decisions. The ability to gather and interpret this intel depends one’s abil > read more

Follow The Three Horsemen

Published on 2011-03-22 09:28:00

Paper shuffling always seems to find enough inflows to cover the deficit spreads. Deterioration in "funding game", however, will be revealed by following the marginal buying and selling the three horsemen rather than total inflows. The Chinese and Ja > read more

US Treasury to sell $142 bn of mortgage assets

Published on 2011-03-21 20:14:00

Right, much more robust. The products, secured by state-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were bought as part of the 2008-2009 financial sector bailout. As the housing bubble began to burst the Treasury and Federal Reserve bought up > read more

Mega-Banks and the Next Financial Crisis

Published on 2011-03-21 20:06:00

At the height of the housing bubble, hedge-fund manager Paul Singer was shorting subprime mortgages. By the spring of 2007, he was warning regulators on both sides of the Atlantic that the world was facing a major financial crisis. They ignored him. > read more

Portugal gov't nears collapse amid debt crisis

Published on 2011-03-21 16:17:00

Changes in the locus of power (control) have almost always been about the debt. Democracy, theocracy, autocracy, communism, etc. will be challenged by the consequences of extreme debt burdens in the coming years. Transitions are never easy as power s > read more

Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure

Published on 2011-03-21 16:12:00

Don't forget about China. Their purchases will be disclosed long after the fact. Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has drive > read more

Follow The Money In The Bond Market

Published on 2011-03-21 11:01:00

Following the money is easier said than done. The inference of hard does not mean that it can't be done. Long bonds will become an investment pariah when confidence breaks. US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And Bond Diffusion Index (DI): US Treasury Bo > read more

Discpline Removes Emotional Decision Making

Published on 2011-03-21 09:38:00

Merchants, investors, traders etc that allow their emotions to override their discpline for higher-order reasoning, a human behavior that has ruled organized markets for thousands of years, will lose. When are the markets not emotional? Headline: D > read more

What Is Dr. Copper Saying?

Published on 2011-03-21 09:23:00

Many experts have cited that (Dr.) copper's recent decline suggests a weakening of the economic recovery. The market is sending a different message. In my commentary, Is Copper Suggesting Caution, I proposed that copper is being driven more by liquid > read more

Confidence Is the Biggest Threat To Economy

Published on 2011-03-21 09:00:00

Rising oil prices, government deficits, falling real estate prices, etc. are all symptoms of a greater problem. The problem is excessive debt. The greatest obstacle that threatens to derail the liquidity-driven recovery is loss in confidence in the > read more

The Transfer From Weak To Strong Hands In Gold

Published on 2011-03-20 12:06:00

Connected money sells (shorts) as the market advances. They buy as it declines. Capital tends to show statistical concentration at major inflections points. These tend to reflect 'easier' entry points. Unfortunately, it also represents a time whe > read more

Libya to give weapons to 1 mln people:state media

Published on 2011-03-20 09:35:00

To borrow Jim's phrase, here we go again. A secular trend of oil priced in U.S. dollars should serve as reminder to the consequences of actions. Russia benefits from this trend. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (OIL) AND Oil to Gold Ratio (OILGLDR > read more

Secular Trend in Real Estate Is Down

Published on 2011-03-20 09:01:00

In my commentary QE1 and QE2 are not helping real estate I suggested that QE wasn't doing much to help real estate. The headline and commentary below continues to support this assertion. Access to credit (credit creation) has been contracting within > read more

Radiation found in food as workers scramble to curb nuclear crisis

Published on 2011-03-19 12:40:00

Radioactivity will burrow into food chain for years to come. As workers scrambled to curb a nuclear crisis Saturday, the Japanese government is looking into halting the sale of food from farms near Fukushima plant after abnormally high levels of rad > read more

Japan radiation fears spark panic salt-buying in China

Published on 2011-03-19 12:09:00

Fear is a powerful motivator. China tried to quell panic buying of iodized salt Thursday after grocery stores across the country were emptied of the seasoning by hordes of people hoping to ward off radiation poisoning after the nuclear accidents in > read more

Forget Harvard and a 4-Year Degree, You Can Make More as a Plumber in the Long Run, Says Prof. Kotlikoff

Published on 2011-03-18 14:27:00

The value of an education is a lot like a race car driver. While a fast car helps, it's always the skill of the driver that wins a race. Whether one's education merely introduces the fast car, or imparts the skills necessary to drive it, depends mo > read more

QE3 May Be ‘Unavoidable Fact of Life’: Strategist

Published on 2011-03-18 12:21:00

The function would be defined as QE(n) for those familiar with the nomenclature of calculus. The US Federal Reserve may have no choice but to introduce a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, in light of the significant headwinds facing the gl > read more

Yemeni snipers open fire on protesters, kill 40

Published on 2011-03-18 11:57:00

The level of control (or lack their of) within a governing body tends to proportional with the level of violence used against their own citizens. Yemeni government snipers firing from rooftops and houses shot into a crowd of tens of thousands of ant > read more

World stocks higher amid G7 pledge to restrain yen

Published on 2011-03-18 06:54:00

Centralized intervention against the flow of capital never succeeds. The Yen, driven by devaluation (printing press), will weaken under the crippling weight of its enormous debt burden in time. A change in the trend is likely to occur at key cycle da > read more

Nearing Significant Shift In The Bond Market

Published on 2011-03-17 13:17:00

Commentary No. 358: February CPI, PPI, Production, Housing Starts, Real Retail Sales, Real M3 - Economy Slumps Anew as Inflation Soars - Fed’s Dollar Debasement Efforts Begin to Yield Their Poisoned Fruit - February Annual Consumer Inflation: 2.1 > read more

BAHRAIN LIVE: Iran Will Respond With "All Power And Potentials At Its Disposal To Halt The Oppression Of The People Of Bahrain"

Published on 2011-03-17 09:54:00

Eventually investors' attention will turn towards the developments in the Middle East. This is serious. The Bahrain proxy conflict and the actual conflict continue after yesterday's shocking violence. Iranian lawmaker Hossein Naqavi tells Press TV: > read more

Stocks open higher on drop in jobless claims

Published on 2011-03-17 09:08:00

A good example of "economic noise" used to explain price action. Utter nonsense, but the association works on an emotional level, so it sells. Stocks are opening higher, a day after suffering their worst losses in seven months. Before the market op > read more

Liquidity vs Hemorrhage Cycle Revisited

Published on 2011-03-17 08:49:00

Liquidity (currency devaluation) has always been the solution to all crises. The Japanese have little choice after a devastating disaster. Unfortunately, the economic illusion provided by liquidity phase vaporizes like fog in the early morning sunshi > read more

Debt Cannot Be Ignored

Published on 2011-03-17 07:29:00

A problem ignored is a problem solved has been the political solution in regards to debt for many years. The debt market has reached a point where the 800lb gorilla within the room can no longer be ignored; currency devaluation occurs under the back > read more

U.S. warns Japan spent fuel pool may have run dry

Published on 2011-03-16 16:13:00

The top U.S. nuclear regulator warned on Wednesday that one pool holding spent fuel at Japan's stricken nuclear plant may have run dry and a second could be leaking, something experts say could accelerate the release of radiation. "We believe at thi > read more

World QE to Infinity

Published on 2011-03-16 14:26:00

The deal is done. World QE to Infinity As long as the Japanese keep their US treasury sales to modest or none, the Fed will join in providing QE to Japan. This is not what I think, but rather what I hear. Jim I agree with Jim. Capital is clearly > read more

Timeline: Anti-government protests in Bahrain

Published on 2011-03-16 11:47:00

It's proxity to Saudia Arabia warrant close attention. This is what the oil market is saying. Protesters demand release of Sheikh Ali Salman, a Shi'ite Moslem cleric arrested after distributing leaflets calling for restoring parliament dissolved in > read more

Problem Denied Is Not A Problem Solved

Published on 2011-03-16 11:14:00

Very often a problem denied is a problem solved. While denial works within some aspects of society, it finds little practical use in the world of money. Capital in a state of denial does not hang around long. Smart money knows that a rubber band str > read more

'Solutions' Represent Different Sides Of The Same Economic Coin

Published on 2011-03-16 09:26:00

Bob, The distinction between “left and right” will blur as market forces smash both sides of the argument. Raising taxes or currency devaluation as a result of infinite liquidity are two sides of the same economic coin. This coin represents a lo > read more

Gold Is The Ultimate Safe Haven

Published on 2011-03-16 08:11:00

The Swiss franc has been the safe haven against the devaluation of most, if not all, fiat currency. Swiss Franc (FXF) A safe haven discussion, however, must include gold. Gold priced in Swiss francs has been rising steadily since 1999; the pace of > read more

Real Estate Struggles Despite Liquidity Driven Recovery

Published on 2011-03-16 08:08:00

Real estate remains a sore spot for the liquidity-driven recovery. As I have suggested in previous commentary, it will take years (decades) for real estate to recover. Housing Starts And Change YOY Headline: New-home construction plunges in Februa > read more

In The News

Published on 2011-03-16 06:53:00

BOJ responds with liquidity injections as concerns mount. Headline: Japan Nuclear Reactor Cores May Be Damaged A fire and aftershocks struck the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant today, as officials battling to prevent a nuclear meltdown said > read more

Japan abandons stricken nuke plant over radiation

Published on 2011-03-15 21:55:00

Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said work on dousing reactors with > read more

If Market Keeps Falling, Fed Will Keep Printing: 'Dr. Doom'

Published on 2011-03-15 15:07:00

In Disney's movie Finding Nemo, a blue fish name Dory sings a catch little hook that repeats the phrase "just keep swimming." Replace swimming with printing and the Fed has a theme song. Falling stock prices will be met only with more money injec > read more

When Will Silver Hit $50 Poll

Published on 2011-03-15 13:40:00

Thank you for all that voted in the When Will Silver Hit $50.61% of the voters thought silver would reach $50 in 2011. 18% thought it would not be reached until 2012.Reality check. 75% of the voters suggested that stocks would end lower in 2010. Les > read more

Interpretation Is A Matter of Perspective

Published on 2011-03-15 13:17:00

Nonetheless, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been subdued. One group's subdued is another's boisterous. As many things in life, interpretation is often a matter of perspective. Spot > read more

U.S. February Import and Export Price Index Report

Published on 2011-03-15 12:31:00

It's easy to miss economic trends with attention rightly focused on other more important humanitarian concerns. As the experts discuss the risks of deflation, reality continues to contradict that argument. Import and Export Price Change YOY: U.S. > read more

Credit Trends

Published on 2011-03-15 10:32:00

Observations: Cash assets rose for the first time in five months. The jumped represents 13.5% total bank credit. This is just a shade below the early 2010 high.Business & commercial, real estate (including home equity and commercial real estate > read more

America on radiation alert: Japan faces world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl as experts warn fallout may reach U.S.

Published on 2011-03-15 09:51:00

America on radiation alert: Japan faces world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl as experts warn fallout may reach U.S. California 'monitoring situation closely' amid dramatic escalation of disaster Japan's nuclear crisis now appears worse th > read more

Liquidity Injections Carry Consequences

Published on 2011-03-15 09:05:00

Emotions are certain push around the gold and silver markets in coming days/months/years. In light of the increased volatility, it is important to note that nothing has changed. Global and domestic (US) problems will continue to be met with direct or > read more

Keeping The Tiger (Gold) In Its Cage

Published on 2011-03-14 13:46:00

Afternoon Observations (1) As the video below suggests, the "subtle hand" is trying hard to keep the tiger in its cage. The caging process started well before the Japanese earthquake. Gold London P.M Fixed And Gold Diffusion Index (DI) (2) Sil > read more

Is Copper Suggesting Caution?

Published on 2011-03-14 12:42:00

Some experts are suggesting “caution” as a result of recent weakness in copper prices. As an interpreter for the markets, I would caution against any such conclusion. Copper, often cited as a measure of economic demand in emerging economies, ha > read more

NOW California's Biggest Pension Fund Wants To Cut Its Earnings Forecast

Published on 2011-03-14 08:00:00

This heated debate will move across the country as this pension problem is not limited to California. CalPERS, California's largest public employee pension fund, is considering cutting its earnings forecast, a move that would surely inflame a heated > read more

Radioactivity detected 60 miles from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant

Published on 2011-03-14 07:52:00

The scope of the disaster will come out in time. Until then, the markets will objectively discount the outcome under an environment of fear. Pentagon officials reported Sunday that helicopters flying 60 miles from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant > read more

Japan central bank injects funds as stocks plunge

Published on 2011-03-13 21:25:00

This will mark yet another global liquidity blast. Any material reduction in Treasury purchases by the BOJ will be meet by additional purchases from the Fed. Japan's central bank injected a record 7 trillion yen ($85.5 billion) into money markets an > read more

Connected Concern of Nuclear Power Plants

Published on 2011-03-13 07:56:00

We all have a stake in each other's nuclear power plants. There is one on the Hudson River a nuclear power plant about 14 miles from mid-town New York City that stands directly on a major FAULT. Who makes these decisions? Jim Fallout Map: Headlin > read more

The Battle In Nat Gas

Published on 2011-03-12 11:35:00

Retail money continues to get flushed. Don't expect them to be heavily invested if this market turns on a technical trigger. Natural Gas (UNG) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Avera > read more

Jim Rickards - “QE is dead, long live QE!”

Published on 2011-03-11 18:54:00

As we approach the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing program many are prepared to shout, “QE is dead!” Few realize the old royal salute is more appropriate – “QE is dead, long live QE!” Because an heir to the throne is here and will be > read more

Tsunami sweeps away certainty for the world's third biggest economy

Published on 2011-03-11 16:12:00

Today’s earthquake in Japan was truly tragic and devastating event. As time passes, the global public will come to recognize the scope of the devastation. For readers from Japan and the Far East, please stay well. The San Francisco earthquake of 1 > read more

iPad price remark gets Fed's Dudley an earful

Published on 2011-03-11 14:31:00

Using 5th Amendment strategy when attempting to answer a real world question about rising food prices doesn't work in Queens, NY. Memo to central bankers: Best not to cite the price of the new iPad as an example of why inflation isn't a problem whe > read more

Dudley signals Fed won't tighten any time soon

Published on 2011-03-11 13:31:00

For those that had doubts about QE3, QE4, and so on. A top Federal Reserve official signaled on Friday the central bank won't tighten monetary policy any time soon, even as the jobs recovery looked set to quicken. New York Fed President William Dud > read more

Utah Legislature goes for gold, silver as currency options

Published on 2011-03-11 08:00:00

Readopting a fixed gold standard won't do much to prevent future debt and financial crisis. The 1930's depression was a classic example of how a fixed gold standard could not prevent a financial crisis. When the debt bubble burst in 1929, currency de > read more

Steer clear of US debt, expert warns

Published on 2011-03-11 07:15:00

Treasuries follow the movement of leveraged money flows over the short term. Heavy inflows in late 2010 and early 2011 has provided support to the bond market at a critical juncture. US Treasury Bond 20YR+ (TLT) And Bond Diffusion Index (DI) Some > read more

Follow The Money

Published on 2011-03-10 15:06:00

Capital does not seek direction from "headline noise”. The movement of smart money, despite what is implied by headline analysis, is deliberate and controlled. It tends to move against headline noise and with the secular trend. In other words, smar > read more

Jim Sinclair's Market Observations

Published on 2011-03-10 12:13:00

Morning thought. As the price of gold rises the battle around round numbers such as $1400 get wilder and wilder. Rhart is the summation of what you see going on now. Trader's views on gold now has come down to 30 seconds, maybe less. Jim At times > read more

Debit card spending limit? Banks consider a $50 cap

Published on 2011-03-10 10:19:00

While this idea remains in design stage, it does illustrate a classic example of "cause and effect" within the political and financial worlds - which are increasingly one in the same today. Setting fees through regulation rather than market driven en > read more

Jeffrey Gundlach: Munis Are The New Subprime

Published on 2011-03-10 06:51:00

The public, protesting within many of the States about to default, has yet to realize the driving force behind their fiscal problems. That is, the inability to borrow and/or service existing debt because the municipal bond market has entered a deep f > read more

Pimco Goes to Cash, Exits Treasurys

Published on 2011-03-09 15:27:00

Gross writes, who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t?" There will be immediate economic and social consequences for not kicking the economic can down the road if QE ends in June 2011. Pimco is right to be nervous regardless of any official de > read more

A Deep Freeze Hits Muni-Bond Market

Published on 2011-03-09 12:18:00

Capital always withdrawals when reward (yield) does not compensate for the risks taken. Yields must rise or the deep freeze will continue without the aid of another buy America program. Municipal-bond issuance is on pace for its lowest quarter in a > read more

China adviser says Beijing should buy more gold

Published on 2011-03-09 11:27:00

One nation sells strength, while another buys weakness. China should use some of its $2.85 trillion foreign exchange reserves to buy more gold XAU=, a government adviser was quoted as saying by local media reports on Wednesday. Li Yining, a senior > read more

Welfare State: Handouts Make Up One-Third of U.S. Wages

Published on 2011-03-09 10:56:00

Milton Friedman's observations, capitalism vs socialism, were and still are correct today. Government payouts—including Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance—make up more than a third of total wages and salaries of the U.S. popula > read more

Kicking The Economic Can Down The Road

Published on 2011-03-09 09:34:00

Why has the Fed been aggressively purchasing US Treasuries since 2009? The official answer is to provide liquidity to the banking system in order to encourage borrowing. Has the liquidity injections accomplished this goal? As we have written many tim > read more

Milton Friedan on Capitalism vs. Socialism

Published on 2011-03-09 08:49:00

In his book "Capitalism and Freedom" (1962) Milton Friedman (1912-2006) advocated minimizing the role of government in a free market as a means of creating political and social freedom. Below is a short excerpt from an interview with Phil Donahue s > read more

Pennsylvania budget calls for deep spending cuts

Published on 2011-03-08 18:00:00

Another State with unprecedented fiscal problems. Calling the state's fiscal problems unprecedented, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett unveiled Tuesday a budget that asks state employees to forgo pay increases and pay more for their health care. The st > read more

Secular Trend In Oil

Published on 2011-03-08 15:11:00

The secular trend (message) in oil is up. ---- Dear CIGAs This and other reasons amplify and solidify my call for $150+ oil in 2011. monty. Subject: From STRATFOR - Bahrain and the Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia...by George Friedman (good r > read more

In The News

Published on 2011-03-08 13:54:00

Icahn is returning 25% of the money in his fund because he doesn't want the headaches brought about by another market crisis. Don't follow the words, follow the money. Headline: Icahn says he will return his investors' money Carl Icahn, the billio > read more

Fiat Money Is All About Confidence

Published on 2011-03-08 12:10:00

We often talk about the intrinsic value of the raw materials that compose coins and bills, but it’s really end-user “confidence” that provides fiat money value. Confidence is a fickle thing. It's there without question one minute and gone the n > read more

Gold Market Saying Living Standards Doomed To Fall In U.S.

Published on 2011-03-08 11:13:00

Gross suggests that living standards doomed to Fall in the U.S. The gold market, and experts that interpret it, has been conveying this message for years. The secular trend in gold will accelerate when the pubic finally recognizes the severity of thi > read more

Vicious Cycle In Real Estate

Published on 2011-03-08 10:06:00

It's called a vicious cycle. Lower real prices are squeezing the heck out of homeowners buried under too much mortgage debt. It's the main reason why QE1, QE2, and the coming QE3 are not helping real estate. It will take decades to over come both th > read more

Gold Shares Continue To Following Sector Breakout

Published on 2011-03-08 08:51:00

Gold shares from juniors to majors are following the massive breakout of the 30 year consolidation within the gold shares sector. The majors and mid-tier producers, consistent with previous secular gold bull markets (see dividend payout of homestakin > read more

The Inevitable End of 1946-2011 Jefferson Nickel

Published on 2011-03-08 06:35:00

The cost to produce the copper/nickel clad nickel is $0.0697 and rising. In other words, just like 90% silver coins and 95%/5% copper pennies, it's only a matter of time before the copper/nickel clad nickel will disappear from circulation. What the p > read more

Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt

Published on 2011-03-07 19:01:00

Any material development here will send the dollar lower and gold higher. Headline: Saudis mobilise thousands of troops to quell growing revolt Saudi Arabia was yesterday drafting up to 10,000 security personnel into its north-eastern Shia Muslim p > read more

Fed must be flexible given oil prices, Lockhart says

Published on 2011-03-07 18:52:00

QE1, QE2, QE3, and so on. Headline: Fed must be flexible given oil prices, Lockhart says Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said that while his first instinct is to be “very cautious” about making another round of bond purchase > read more

Utah House Passes Bill Recognizing Gold, Silver as Legal Tender

Published on 2011-03-07 15:26:00

The fact that this news probably surprises a large cross section of the public implies far too many high school U.S. government classes no longer study or read the U.S. Constitution beyond “We the People.” Headline: Utah House Passes Bill Recogn > read more

Deteriorating Confidence Makes Governments Insolvent

Published on 2011-03-07 14:28:00

The inability of governments to pay their obligations in constant dollars, also recognized as inflation by the public and ongoing default by capital, has been occurring since 1934. It certainly intensified in 1971. The secular gold trend suggests tha > read more

Wall of Worry or Bubble?

Published on 2011-03-07 12:51:00

Real estate was the “can’t lose” investment of a generation in 2007. Borrowing and consumption skyrocketed, and very few experts saw the formation of a stock market bubble. In other words, the headlines reflected growing optimism that the boom/ > read more

She's in a cla$$ by herself

Published on 2011-03-07 12:44:00

Eric: I’m a loyal follower. Great work/site. I read the NY POST-for not only the obvious scandals, the cartoon, etc., but also for some real hard hitting stories other papers won’t touch. Geez, they had Slick Willie nailed in 1991. Anyway, che > read more

Euro Will Strength Through Addition By Subtraction

Published on 2011-03-07 07:07:00

Market forces and economic reality, not rating agencies, have been tipping Greece closer to the brink. Rating agencies only specialize in locking the barn door after the horses have bolted. In a surprise turn, the Euro continues to rally against the > read more

There Are Bigger Gorillas In The Room

Published on 2011-03-06 15:26:00

While investors have become preoccupied with the battle in Wisconsin, they seem to have forgotten the bigger budgetary Gorillas in the same room. States such as California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, etc have much bigger defects. Bigger problems > read more

Slow And Steady Transition In Natural Gas

Published on 2011-03-06 11:08:00

Leverage money flows illustrate the continuation of a net long transfer from retail to commercial traders in natural gas. Natural Gas (UNG) and the Commercial (C) & Nonreportables (NR) Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average > read more

Oil Is Headed Higher

Published on 2011-03-04 12:49:00

Aggressive inflation will send oil a lot higher than $200 (USD) by the end of this cycle. Of course, gold will be significantly higher by 2016. This suggests that $200-$300 (USD) oil won't carry the same real cost as it would in 2011. Let it not be > read more

China Signals Dominance in Stealth Jet Test Flight

Published on 2011-03-04 11:33:00

A far more likely scenario than Pomfret's musings is that Hu is playing a cagey game. By hinting that the People's Liberation Army made the decision without civilian knowledge, Hu is showing he is reasonable and not warlike but the test underscores C > read more

Investment History Made One Day At A Time

Published on 2011-03-04 10:59:00

The gold stocks, following three taps and out trading heuristic, broke away from long-term consolidation on May 2010. S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)* *S&P Gold from 1945, Barron's Gold Stock Index from 1939-1945, 1922-1939 Homest > read more

The Problem Is Debt, Not Jobs

Published on 2011-03-04 08:26:00

The rate of job destruction has slowed appreciably. This is illustrated by the slow and steady climb of Jobs Creation Histogram (JCH) towards zero. While this is good news for job seekers, it does not suggest an end of the economic problems that co > read more

U.S. Dollar Index At Important Technical Juncture

Published on 2011-03-03 18:32:00

The dollar index is dangerously close to completing the "three taps and out" trading heuristic of a large consolidation pattern that formed in 2008. A break of this pattern would signal not only continuation of the secular downtrend and but also, and > read more

One Heck Of A Mess

Published on 2011-03-03 13:38:00

That’s because Mr. Gross is no dummy. He knows that economic growth is highly dependent on public sector spending. This is fact – right or wrong. Economic growth will crash faster than public support for increased taxation if the flow from the sp > read more

Rising Stock Markets Don't Always Translate Into Currency Adjusted Profits

Published on 2011-03-03 13:18:00

The proper description would be Wall Street jumps on optimism that quantitative easing will continue unabated until the wheels fall off. That verison is not as user friendly, so as George Gershwin once wrote, You like "po-tay-to" and I like "po-tah- > read more

Economic and Social Problems Stem From Failing Debt

Published on 2011-03-03 11:21:00

Nothing unexpected. The problems we face today stem from failing debt - not the number of people requesting unemployment benefits. It still works because the need to believe outweighs most higher order, economic reasoning skills. Average Weekly Init > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-03-03 10:31:00

Mike, I appreciate your and all comments, but respectfully suggested a more comprehensive review of my analysis before reaching any broad conclusion. As I have explained numerous times in the past, nominal charts (unadjusted for currency depreciatio > read more

Hedge Fund Titan's Principles

Published on 2011-03-03 08:58:00

Every once and awhile (a long while) F-TV produces a guest that provides a moment of economic and financial clarity for the mainstream. Hedge Fund Titan's Principles [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other conte > read more

Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management

Published on 2011-03-02 12:07:00

BNN talks to one of the world's leading investor's and investment strategists Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management and finds out just how precious the metals are. Video: watch.bnn.ca : The Street : March 1, 2011 : Silver is Money The 2003-20 > read more

Boise County files for bankruptcy

Published on 2011-03-02 11:24:00

And, so it begins, driven not by politics (leadership) but rather market forces. In a move rare in the United States and perhaps unprecedented in Idaho, Boise County is filing for federal protection against a multimillion dollar judgment. “This w > read more

The Average American Doesn't Stand A Chance

Published on 2011-03-02 10:38:00

So, while I take those commodity price increases very seriously, I don't think they are primarily a dollar phenomenon. In Testimony to House Panel, Ben Bernanke As a result, The Average American: Headline: HIGHLIGHTS-Bernanke's testimony to Hou > read more

Real Economic Growth Remains Anemic

Published on 2011-03-02 09:45:00

Unexpected, or surprising strength, always grabs investors’ attention. It screams the right message – the economic recovery gains traction. Unfortunately, the analysis fails to reveal that liquidity (inflation) is driving growth. In other words > read more

Headlines Sell Drama

Published on 2011-03-02 07:19:00

Headlines convey concern while a message from the market supports a coming turn. This is not revealed as an aid to time the market but rather an illustration of how drama rather than analysis sells headlines. While drama encourages clicks, it is of > read more

Labor Market Still 'Sickly"

Published on 2011-03-02 06:52:00

Again, anyone suggesting an early end to quantitative easing (QE2) is delusional. Headline analysis will skip over this trend. Challenger, Grey, and Christmas Announced Layoffs (ALO) And YOY Change: Headline: Planned layoffs spike in February Don > read more

Vicious Downward Cycle Intensifying

Published on 2011-03-01 16:49:00

The vicious downward cycle (see Jim's formula) that started that started in 2001 and rematerialized in 2008 is beginning to intensify in 2011. This suggests an acceleration in the trend toward a lower standard of living for Americans as the shockwave > read more

Ohio union plan like Wisconsin draws protests

Published on 2011-03-01 14:25:00

Are domestic protests, civil in comparson to their international counterparts, any less significant in terms of social and economic consequences despite the lighter media coverage? The markets say no. Headline: Ohio union plan like Wisconsin draws p > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-03-01 13:43:00

I would add that the gloves are off for gold and silver. This is happening for a reason. Eric When the fraudulent truth of OTC Derivatives surfaces it will lay waste to the international investment banks and distributors. Jim Subprime securities > read more

An Island of Stablility With Cat 5 Hurricane Bearing Down On It

Published on 2011-03-01 12:09:00

The Yen described as a traditional island of safety? Investors will find no safety in any island (safe haven) with a category 5 'monetary' hurricane bearing down on it. People will always view the world according to their biases, so arguing against t > read more

Between the Lines Analysis of TIC Data Reveals A Market In Turmoil

Published on 2011-03-01 09:08:00

The frequency of revisions within the TIC data series suggests a paper market in turmoil. One would never know that from the headline interpretations. The revisions are becoming so frequent that historical comparisons are becoming increasingly diffic > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-02-28 14:57:00

Roman, The Romans took from the "barbarians" because they could. The Europeans took from the Native Americans because they could. $30 billion is pocket change for a world saddled with hundreds of trillions of failing and largely unrecognized debt. > read more

The Worst Assumption - This Time Will Be Different

Published on 2011-02-28 13:55:00

Apparently lessons from history are forgotten once the book is closed. Or, perhaps, the ego makes us think that this time will be different. The prohibition of alcohol from 1920 to 1933 did not stop its consumption in the United States. A black mark > read more

Why 2011 May Be the End of the Housing Crash

Published on 2011-02-28 12:44:00

Don't count on it. The state of housing is often quite different than picture painted by headline interpretations. The game of perception often suggests that the worse is over in the real estate market. It is not. New home sales continue to contract > read more

Long Term Secular Trend In Stocks

Published on 2011-02-28 09:24:00

TA driven predictions/forecasts that do not consider long-term secular trends and cycles tend to pick up only trend "noise". Trend noise never catches major inflection points. Large Cap Stocks Capital Appreciation Index (LCSCAI) and Z Scores from P > read more

The Dollar Lost Its Safe Haven Status A Long Time Ago

Published on 2011-02-28 08:39:00

While the talking heads and various experts are busy talking up the dollar, they ignore the message coming from the market. Contrary to consensus interpretation, it’s a message of weakness. International and domestic political upheaval should be > read more

Madoff to NY magazine: Government a Ponzi scheme

Published on 2011-02-28 07:33:00

Wall Street swindler Bernard Madoff said in a magazine interview published Sunday that new regulatory reform enacted after the recent national financial crisis is laughable and that the federal government is a Ponzi scheme. "The whole new regulatory > read more

Retail Longs Flushed From Natural Gas

Published on 2011-02-26 15:30:00

As expected, retail longs are being aggressively flushed from the long side. Connected money continues to accumulate into weakness. The market awaits a technical trigger while behind the scenes money reallocates from weak to strong. Natural Gas (UNG > read more

State spending cuts slow US economic growth in Q4

Published on 2011-02-25 11:09:00

Balance the budget and ignore the cries of "save me" from the public? These are dangerous choices. Deeper spending cuts by state and local governments weighed down U.S. economic growth in the final three months of last year. The government's new es > read more

Identify Secular Trends

Published on 2011-02-25 11:00:00

Bob, don't let short-term headline noise obstruct the long-term, secular message from the market. Do not wait for public recognition. It always comes way too late. (1) Identify (2) Trade in Sympathy with it Regards, Eric West Texas Intermediate > read more

Patience Is Need At A Time Of Impatience

Published on 2011-02-25 07:19:00

Looks like a step towards social polarization. Will curtailing collective bargaining rights solve the problem? Will balancing State budgets solve the problem? The answer is no to both. To quote a common phrase, it's all about the debt, stupid. This > read more

Beast Prowling And Public Sleeping

Published on 2011-02-25 07:19:00

The gold to silver ratio illustrates a cyclical shift from gold to silver since 1991. This cycle has showed periods and of ebb (1998-2003) and flow (1991-1998 and 2003-2008). A break of the 1998 low would imply the follow: (1) a retest of the 1968 lo > read more

Housing Will Remain Weak For Years (Decades)

Published on 2011-02-24 09:49:00

The state of housing is often quite different than picture painted by headline interpretations. The game of perception often suggests that the worse is over in the real estate market. It is not. New home sales continue to contract as supply swamps de > read more

The Message From The Oil Market

Published on 2011-02-24 08:09:00

Bob's end game interpretation, while likely viewed as 'crazy talk' by the mainstream, is not so far-fetched. In time Bob's price target will viewed as way too conservative. Regards, Eric West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (OIL): Eric, Over the y > read more

Divergences and Nonconfirmations Provide Warnings

Published on 2011-02-24 08:03:00

The evolution of a top can only described as a process. Divergences and nonconfirmations tend to provide warnings before the breaks. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CNFAI) and S&P 500 Average Economic Activity Slower in January Led by d > read more

State Budget Woes Ensure QE to Infinity

Published on 2011-02-23 18:59:00

How many years will it take for the Great Recession to be recognized as another depression by excessive debt? It is certain to be long after that fact. Clearly, the media coverage of the financial woes and the social consequences of the solutions pro > read more

Social Unrest in Greece Continues

Published on 2011-02-23 17:09:00

The weaker players will be forced out of the EU. This will unexpectedly strengthen the Euro relative to other paper. Relative paper strength does not turn junk into gold. Warning - content is graphic. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

Saudi king back home, orders $37 billion in handouts

Published on 2011-02-23 16:14:00

Smart money is watching Saudi Arabia. Saudi King Abdullah returned home on Wednesday after a three-month medical absence and unveiled benefits for Saudis worth some $37 billion in an apparent bid to insulate the world's top oil exporter from an Arab > read more

US govt agrees to supply coins

Published on 2011-02-23 12:55:00

You can't make this s(h*t)tuff up. It gives new meaning to an old phrase - out of the frying pan and into the fire. Zimbabweans are substituting one form of hyperinflation for another. Perhaps, the problem lies in the printing press that backs both c > read more

Nervousness In The Oil Market

Published on 2011-02-23 11:47:00

The Internet, following in the steps of major technological advances such as the printing press, invented by Johannes Gutenberg around 1440, has made the world a lot smaller. It has also been the great levelier of men and women across the globe. The > read more

Swimming Against the Secular Current

Published on 2011-02-23 10:19:00

Few traders/investors have the skills necessary to ‘time’ short-term reactions within secular trends. Even the 'best of the best' often struggle securing consistent profit scalping the dominant trend. It’s also important to note that anticipati > read more

Big Money Woes Federal, State, and Local Levels

Published on 2011-02-23 08:06:00

Federal, State, and local governments all face big money woes with few political ‘solutions’ that will be acceptable to the public. The end result will be a reduction in the standard of living for those without protection. Headline: Emanuel face > read more

Follow The Money In the Treasury Auctions

Published on 2011-02-23 06:54:00

There’s always a treasury auction around the next corner with America's propensity to deficit spend. Watch not only demand (bid-to-cover) but also who's participating. One day probably in the not too distant future an auction will be held and no bu > read more

Divergences Convey A Message

Published on 2011-02-22 14:39:00

Interpetations left to the readers. Tanzanian Rty Explr Co (TRE): [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

The Decline In Housing Is Not Over

Published on 2011-02-22 14:06:00

The crash in US housing since 2005, while substantial and painful, is not over. Ignore government and third party data and time series. Interpretations from them never supercede the message from the markets. S&P Homebuilders (HB) to Gold Ratio: > read more

It's Always Been About the Economy (An Economy Saddled With Debt)

Published on 2011-02-22 13:59:00

Social discontent grows as economic reality of excessive debt burdens manifests itself into lower standard of livings for all. There's always been a fine line between protest and riot. People that believe that have nothing to loose tend to cross it. > read more

Money Moves Into Gold and Silver

Published on 2011-02-22 13:30:00

Money continues to move into gold and silver as a result of currency devaluation throughout the globe. Increased tension within the middle east is nothing more than a convenient, headline excuse. Headline: Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Silver Bets as Mi > read more

The Market Likes Copper

Published on 2011-02-22 10:02:00

Copper, unlike the consumer price index (CPI) which easily substitutes hamburger with cat food to combat rising prices, doesn’t have many alternatives. Ever wonder why it's getting harder to find copper pennies in circulation? Smart money has been > read more

In The News

Published on 2011-02-22 08:48:00

Dangerous stuff. Headline: Iranian naval vessels enter Suez Canal Two Iranian naval vessels entered the Suez Canal on Tuesday en route to Syria, officials said, the first time in three decades that Tehran has sent military ships through the strateg > read more

The Bond Market Does Not Back Mild Inflation

Published on 2011-02-22 07:19:00

If that were the case, why does the long term US government and corporate long bonds to gold ratio look like a ski slope? The gold market is sending a message that headline misdirection prevents many from seeing. Long-Term U.S. Government Bonds Tota > read more

Gaddafi on the run: Dictator may already have fled and be on his way to Venezuela after Libyan air force attacks civilians

Published on 2011-02-21 15:53:00

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has fled Libya and may be heading for Venezuela, William Hague said today. The Foreign Secretary said he had seen 'information' that suggests Gaddafi is on his way to the South American country - as Libya was up in flame > read more

Gold Will Continue to Outperform Equities

Published on 2011-02-21 15:15:00

The recent up tick in the stock to gold ratio has some suggesting that a secular shift away from safe haven (gold) to risk (equities) has begun. This interpretation is wrong. A secular shift from safe to risk will happen only when TIME is right. G > read more

Gulf shares drop on Mideast unrest

Published on 2011-02-21 08:05:00

The dominoes of control that characterized the dollar-centric system continue to wobble and fall. While the media focuses on the budding ‘Democracies’ for Northern Africa and Middle East, they blissfully ignore another interpretation suggested b > read more

The Only Certainty Is Public Uncertainty

Published on 2011-02-20 09:03:00

The only certainty is public uncertainty. The can will be kicked down the road because it is the only policy option left. Kicking the can through infinite quantitative easing, however, is no free lunch. The public is beginning to realize this axiom > read more

Connect the (Foreclosure) Dots

Published on 2011-02-19 16:59:00

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Bernanke urges nations to help ease trade gaps

Published on 2011-02-19 16:54:00

The consequences of an excessive debt burden debt translated into trade/currency imbalances. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday urged countries with large trade surpluses like China t > read more

Powder Keg Setup

Published on 2011-02-19 16:12:00

Silver is talking to anyone that will listen. Three taps and outResistance becomes support Silver London P.M Fixed and the COT Futures and Options Open Interest Stochastic Weighted Average: Silver London P.M Fixed and the Silver Diffusion Index (D > read more

America's Economic Conundrum

Published on 2011-02-19 14:07:00

Many States cannot support the current standard of living (labor, benefits, services, maintenance, etc) without additional deficit spending and debt issuance. Deteriorating credit ratings for many municipalities, more importantly, new low in trend en > read more

In the News

Published on 2011-02-19 10:11:00

G20 holds meeting at Disney World. Problem solved - fantasia style. Headline: G-20 reach compromise deal on imbalances PARIS (AP) -- The world's dominant economies have reached a compromise deal on how to track imbalances in the global economy tha > read more

COT Pulse Natural Gas

Published on 2011-02-19 09:40:00

Hi Eric, Can you give use an update on what's happening in the natural gas market, it seems to be pretty dire. A rally until July is usually common around this time of the year, but it seems it will be very weak and could set the stage for more decli > read more

Flush The Weak Hands

Published on 2011-02-17 07:22:00

Negative Media Coverage (Endless) + Gold Quoted on Paper Markers (COMEX) = Flushing of Weak Hands. It's as easy as taking candy from a baby, right? Not so much anymore. The "paper hits" are nowhere near as deep as previous reactions. The baby is > read more

Lots of Arm Waving About Jobless Claims

Published on 2011-02-10 07:42:00

The trend in jobless claims has little if any influence on global capital flows. A lot of arm waving for nothing. Wake me up when the cycle is over. Average Weekly Initial Claims State Unemployment (AWIC) And YOY Change Headline: Jobless claims dr > read more

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices

Published on 2011-02-09 11:34:00

Outflows in oil won't have much of long-term influence without the ability to increase marginal supply. A close and retest of $100 as major cycle dates approach would be bullish for oil. Leverage money flows would likely flip from outflows to inflows > read more

A Seer on Banks Raises a Furor on Bonds

Published on 2011-02-08 14:41:00

Those with vision 'see' while those without point fingers. The turmoil in the bond stems from market foces that supercede the power of centralized control. The bond market has been deteriorating in real terms for years. Ms. Whitney is also drawing s > read more

Fed’s Fisher Says He Won’t Support More QE After June

Published on 2011-02-08 12:53:00

Dissention, while still quietly kicking the can down the road, is politically acceptable. Failing to supply or withdrawing liquidity (gasp!) and facing the social, political, and economic consequences of doing so is not. Richard W. Fisher, president > read more

'Toxic' Assets Still Lurking at Banks

Published on 2011-02-08 11:39:00

Accounting tricks may hidden the problem from plain view, but out of sight, out of mind approach only hides the problem behind layers of complexity. Trillions of dollars of toxic assets still exist and have no market. This largely explains why the Fe > read more

Grocery Bills Are on the Rise

Published on 2011-02-08 11:11:00

The rise in foodstuff, while impressive, is difficult to characterize as ‘extreme’ speculative pushes. The CRB Foodstuffs to CRB All Commodity Spot Index has yet to reach the 1975, 1982, 2001, and 2008 extremes. The charts below illustrate these > read more

Those With An Economic Plan Create Leverage

Published on 2011-02-08 09:03:00

Competition for resources will be fierce. Those with good, long-term plans can create economic and political leverage. Currency devaluation is not a free lunch solution. “The reality is the U.S. has not done enough to secure the supply chain fro > read more

My credit card had a 79.9% APR

Published on 2011-02-07 18:13:00

Life within credit driven consumption bubble... Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) As A %GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures As A %GDP Average from 1947: Toni Riss had a credit card with a 79.9% interest rate. The 58-year-old woman fro > read more

JPMorgan takes gold collateral, inflation in focus

Published on 2011-02-07 16:53:00

Interesting how gold, often described as a barbaric relic of past monetary systems, continues to find uses in present monetary systems. J.P. Morgan Chase said on Monday it would accept physical gold as collateral with its counterparties as a growing > read more

By one measure, federal taxes lowest since 1950

Published on 2011-02-07 16:09:00

This interpretation is decent. Real revenues are contracting at an alarming annual rate. Real or Gold Adjusted Federal Total Receipts 12-Month Moving Average (TR12MA) AND Federal Total Receipts 12-Month Moving Average Year-over-Year Change (TW12MA1 > read more

Gold And Stocks - History Is Repeating

Published on 2011-02-07 11:29:00

The secular trends are often revealed by simple analysis. The stock market is heavily influence by devaluation of the currency that denominates it; the U.S. dollar denominates US stocks. The stock market invariably churns within ‘depressionary boxe > read more

Layoffs become rarer even with unemployment high

Published on 2011-02-07 10:33:00

When your neighbor loses his job it’s a recession. When you lose yours it’s a depression. Apparently, high unemployment is a good thing from a certain perspective. The devious nature of misdirection. The U.S. labor force has been split into tw > read more

China Buying Less Treasuries And More Tangible Assets

Published on 2011-02-07 06:46:00

Follow the money, while it follows it's economic plan. Headline: CNOOC pays $570m to buy into US oil shale operation China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) Ltd, China's largest offshore energy producer, agreed to pay $570 million in cash for a on > read more

A Recognized Top in US Long Bonds Will Be A Process

Published on 2011-02-06 13:07:00

A recognized top in US Long bonds, the last golden pillar, will be an ongoing process - an ebb and flow between in and outflows (see bond diffusion index below) rather than a single exogenous event. The bond market through the aid of QE1,2,3,etc will > read more

Growing Acceptance Of Gold As The World’s Premiere Currency

Published on 2011-02-06 08:10:00

Headlines tend to focus relative strength/weakness between fiat currencies. For example, the Mexican peso is setting fresh highs against the dollar. While the peso is setting new highs against the dollar, it’s setting performing poorly against go > read more

More Social Unrest, Currencies Turmoil: Jim Rogers

Published on 2011-02-04 14:06:00

More social and political turmoil is likely in the future so commodities prices will continue rising, renowned investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Thursday Charts of interest: Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) And Nasdaq 100 Diffusion Index ( > read more

Inside the Employment Report

Published on 2011-02-04 08:32:00

An unexpected decline in unemployment rate from 9.4% to 9.0% is extremely deceptive. The secular trend in the civil labor force (see chart below) illustrates the following: (1) A noticeable deceleration in the growth of the labor force growth since > read more

How Much is a Nickel Worth? More than Five Cents, Says Michael Lewis (VIDEO)

Published on 2011-02-03 15:01:00

What's commonly known as Gresham's law, the debasement of currency causes the hoarding of good (old) relative to bad (new) money, is not a new human behavior. This tendency had been observed as far back as the 5th century BC. It's becoming clear tha > read more

Punt!

Published on 2011-02-03 14:41:00

A newsflash on financial TV, taken directly a Fed speech, stated that food inflation was reflection of increased demand from emerging markets. Perhaps, this is why the inflation/deflation (disinflation) debate still finds a forum today despite the se > read more

Inflation Everwhere, But Still Nowhere To Be Seen?

Published on 2011-02-03 11:42:00

Inflation is everywhere, but still nowhere to be seen? Not for long. The true meaning of the headline below would not be missed by the citizens of any hyperinflationary experience throughout history (i.e. Weimar Republic). Headline: Companies Stock > read more

Secular Up Trend In CRB Foodstuffs

Published on 2011-02-03 08:42:00

Currency devaluation drives inflation. CRB Foodstuffs (butter, corn, hogs, sugar, wheat, etc) are extremely sensitive to it (devaluation). Rising prices, particularly food prices, tends to increase the dependency of the public on social programs. Ina > read more

Local, State, and Federal Government Budget Deficits

Published on 2011-02-03 07:35:00

The budget struggles of local, state, and federal governments are illustrated below. Eric US Federal Budget (Surplus or Deficit As A % of GDP, 12 Month Moving Average) and Gold London P.M. Fixed: The Mayor is trying to get the horses back into th > read more

Dow 12,000 Happy Pill Another Example of Misdirection

Published on 2011-02-02 18:34:00

Hyper-inflation, the predictable result of QE, here and all over the Western world, is barreling towards North America. QE is that which is responsible for the 12,000 Dow Happy Pill making people blind to what Egypt really is and Inflation's presence > read more

The Art Of Misdirection

Published on 2011-02-02 13:05:00

I suggested that the U.S. dollar Index, UUP (ETF), had incurred significant, largely unrecognized technical damage in September 2010 (see comments). Yet, despite definable technical setup, investors have been increasingly bombarded by headlines and e > read more

Fed passes China in Treasury holdings

Published on 2011-02-02 11:46:00

What does the Fed know that financial TV does not? The entire Western world financial community is broke. The fragile recovery is Happy Juice from the Dow. Jim The Fed knows that primary dealers, the credit brokers for the Fed and Treasury, have st > read more

Call It A Snow Day

Published on 2011-02-02 11:42:00

One of the largest winter storms in decades. No joke. Headline: Midwest buckles under storm, calls it a snow day A massive storm billed as the worst in decades barreled toward the northeast Wednesday, leaving vast swaths from Chicago to New York > read more

Al Jazeera TV NEWS NOW

Published on 2011-02-01 12:52:00

Believe it or not Al Jazeera has become the news service of choice world wide. There are approximately 2 million people in Tariah Square….this was just reported……”a very large public revolution” is occuring……Jim Click to watch video > read more

Trouble In Commerical Real Estate

Published on 2011-02-01 10:21:00

Follow the money, not the talk. Commercial real estate (CRE), highlighted by the blue box in the table below, has always been a significant contributor to credit creation in the United States. The table reveals that CRE loans have been contracting a > read more

Internet ‘Kill Switch’ Legislation Back in Play

Published on 2011-02-01 10:16:00

A topic of debate for some time. Headline: Internet ‘Kill Switch’ Legislation Back in Play Legislation granting the president internet-killing powers is to be re-introduced soon to a Senate committee, the proposal’s chief sponsor told Wired.c > read more

Occam's Razor And The Gold Price

Published on 2011-02-01 08:46:00

Technical Damage Requires Technical Repair and then it is off to the races again, Jim (see below) As long as the COMEX remains the dominant price marker for precious metals, paper ‘fuel’ within the leverage markets will mark the end of the liqui > read more

In the News - North Africa/Middle East

Published on 2011-02-01 08:36:00

The oil market (price) is grappling with probabilities and consequences right now. Headline: Clinton convenes mass meeting of US ambassadors WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is convening an unprecedented mass meeting of > read more

Natural Gas Requires Discpline and Patience

Published on 2011-01-31 14:01:00

Exercising discipline in a market that requires none is easy. It's a lot harder doing so in market that demands it. Natural gas requires discipline and patience. The increasing in the number of bullish setups could reflect a market in transition. Na > read more

Kick The Can Down The Economic Road

Published on 2011-01-31 11:26:00

Earning (sigh - as this heavily massaged and adjusted number is not what it seems) and spending more and save less philosophy has transitioned from economic choice to necessity for Americans. America’s reliance on personal consumption, more commonl > read more

Rising Lumber Prices Interpretated As Bullish For Real Estate

Published on 2011-01-30 11:34:00

While the rally from the lows has been impressive, it still does not suggest an inflection in the trend. The pattern of lower highs and lows remains undisturbed since 2006. Despite some bullish prediction for housing, intense outflows by connected mo > read more

Agenda: With George Friedman on Egypt

Published on 2011-01-29 18:38:00

Agenda: With George Friedman on Egypt - Watch more Politics Videos at Vodpod. Source: Agenda: With George Friedman on Egypt STRATFOR [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Mass Exodus of Specs & Retail Traders

Published on 2011-01-29 18:09:00

On Friday we found out the the supply on the Comex and hammering of gold was primarily the product of an undisciplined hedge fund trader who got caught in an outrageously large spread under-financed. We also learned of the problem in Egypt that few t > read more

Growing Worry Spook Financial Markets

Published on 2011-01-29 07:17:00

Secular-driven change often creates a power vacuum for non-secular groups to exploit. The financial markets have reacted not only to the possibility of change not only in Egypt but also other more sensitive countries within the Middle East. The Equi > read more

Munis In Transition?

Published on 2011-01-28 12:31:00

States will go broke, Jim 'Broke' comes in all shapes and sizes Eric The technical setup in muni bonds, despite the assurances from various experts, suggests a market in transition. Do you recall similar setups and assurances for Enron, Fannie Mae, > read more

Gold, Consumer Expectations, and Cycles

Published on 2011-01-28 09:10:00

Secular trends and cycles suggest the following: (1) The negative correlation between gold and consumer expectations, a proxy for consumer spending – a large contributor to economic growth in the United States, is strong. This correlation tightens > read more

Talk is Cheap

Published on 2011-01-27 11:41:00

Interpretations originating from short-term 'talk' are often misleading. This point is not missed by the paper operators. That's why talk is cheap and (following the) money is dear. Headline: Gold Loses Safe-Haven Appeal Spot gold prices were suf > read more

Downgrade of Japanese Debt, Is the US Next?

Published on 2011-01-27 11:04:00

Can the US rating agencies ever focus on the 'US debt problem' (see Dan's comments below) without jeopardizing its umbrella of protection? Unlikely. Dear friends; This morning news came down the wires that the rating agency S&P had downgraded J > read more

New Home Sales And Real Estate Slump

Published on 2011-01-27 10:26:00

New home sales are notoriously volatile due to seasonality factors. Seasonality adjustments can cause unexpected strength in one month, only to be followed by unexpected weakness in the next. While new home sales unexpectedly surge, loan demand and v > read more

In The News

Published on 2011-01-26 14:30:00

Kicking the can down the road with a bridge out ahead requires more business as usual. That is, until business as usual has no effect. Headline: Obama's Spending Freeze Just 'Spare Change': Roubini The White House plan to partially freeze governme > read more

Definable Bottoms In Gold

Published on 2011-01-26 10:16:00

Hi Eric, I have read recently that solid bottoms in gold tend to be associated with commercial traders are aggressively buying rather than just covering short positions. What's your take? Thank you, Ron Hello Ron, My take is that there are no ab > read more

One in Six Seniors Lives in Poverty, New Analysis Finds

Published on 2011-01-26 06:49:00

Currency devaluation (inflation) tends to hit the lower and middle classes fairly hard. It also hits anyone heavily dependent on fixed income. This tends to be elderly, retired, or anyone else that has yet to learn that gold is money. One in six old > read more

Fly- By-Sight Or Instruments?

Published on 2011-01-25 12:28:00

When rhetoric inevitably deceives your mind, it's always your ability to fly by instruments, i.e. your discipline, that prevents a panic crash. While rhetoric hypes gold, ultimate safe haven, as no longer needed in a recovering economy, it affects o > read more

It's The Economy Again, Same Problem As Last Year

Published on 2011-01-25 11:21:00

The consumption bubble, consumption at the expense of savings, investment and future production arises from them, will be difficult to "fix" as long as short-term tools are chosen to solve a long-term problems. Easy money, liquidity, and the illusion > read more

What's Not Bullish About This Long-term Chart?

Published on 2011-01-25 09:48:00

Let's not confuse the message of thus post with technical jargon and fancy analysis. What's not bullish about this chart? S&P Gold (Formerly Precious Metals Mining)* *S&P Gold from 1945, Barron's Gold Stock Index from 1939-1945, 1922-1939 H > read more

Taking Candy From A Baby

Published on 2011-01-25 07:10:00

How many have noticed the technical damage in the U.S. Dollar market recently? U.S. Dollar ETF The unfolding of yet another massive weak to strong hands paper transfer in the precious metals markets suggests no many. Selective media coverage, inte > read more

Follow The Money In Natural Gas

Published on 2011-01-24 16:27:00

When Jim suggested a few days ago that The Mini Ice Age has begun - at least here, perhaps some readers thought an icicle from his porch dropped on his head. Jim’s comments, though seemingly far-fetched, are scientifically based. The Sun’s outpu > read more

S&P warns of more muni bond downgrades

Published on 2011-01-24 16:16:00

The rating agencies are fully aware of the risks within the global financial system. Some entities can be downgraded, while others cannot. Just as fears about a heavy sell off in the municipal bond market seemed to be easing, Standard & Poor's > read more

McDonald's likely to raise prices in 2011

Published on 2011-01-24 13:21:00

If it looks, talks, and smells like inflation, it probably is. Perhaps McDonald’s could advise the BLS, whom views food and energy as too volatile to include in the core consumer price calculation, as to the importance of food and energy and the r > read more

Texas balanced budget with stimulus money from Washington

Published on 2011-01-24 13:09:00

The bailout of State finances, despite the suggestion that "they're on their own" from Federal sources, will be either direct (stimulus money or programs) or indirect (mortgage bond purchases). Here's an example of direct. Headline: Texas balanced b > read more

Follow The Money In Crude Oil

Published on 2011-01-24 12:48:00

A second wave of heavy outflows in November 2010 materialized well before any supply increase hint(s). See chart below. Interesting how outflows and rhetoric have become a bit more 'focused' as price has moved above an important swing high in 2011. > read more

Tidal Waves of Liquidity Since 2002 Were No Accidents

Published on 2011-01-23 09:43:00

The tidal waves of progressively stronger liquidity injections since 2002 were no accidents. The warning signs presented in the present and past in plain sight for everyone to see remain largely unrecognized as the all-important 2012-2015 timeframe > read more

The Difference Between Methodology And Crystal Ball When Anticipating Direction In Stocks

Published on 2011-01-22 08:41:00

Many experts, citing factors such as stretched fundamentals to relatively high investor sentiment, suggest that the time is right for a substantial stock market decline. The suggestion that the market remains on the cusp of a major decline denies tha > read more

Lenders See Little Choice: Layoffs

Published on 2011-01-21 12:20:00

Couple of observations: (1) Slower revenue growth due to lower loan demand suggests the economic recovery and stock market rally is more a product of infinite liquidity and accounting flexibility than increased private investment and aggregate demand > read more

Don't Let The Paper Shenanigans In Gold Obscure Reality

Published on 2011-01-21 09:34:00

A big reduction in benefits for the public sector is inevitable. States lack the ability to print or devalue their currency to meet their obligations. States either receive federal assistance to meet their obligations or reorganize in bankruptcy, sim > read more

The Movement of Leverage Capital in Precious Metals

Published on 2011-01-20 15:09:00

Analysis of COT data through 1/11/01 suggests that connected money has been quietly buying weakness through a combination of long purchases and short liquidation. Friday's data is expected to reveal a continuation of this trend. Recent weakness in pr > read more

Vallejo proposes paying some creditors only 5% to 20%

Published on 2011-01-20 08:25:00

Paying creditors a fraction of money owed or suspending payments altogether were tactics used by municipalities of all sizes in the Great Depression. Vallejo, which filed for bankruptcy in 2008, has proposed paying its unsecured creditors, who are m > read more

Shocking Trends Revealed By TIC

Published on 2011-01-19 11:50:00

While media focuses on the export deal between the US and China, worth $45 billion, they miss the Chinese quietly reducing their treasury security holdings by $11.2 from October to November. This reduction marks yet another monthly reduction that has > read more

QE1 and QE2 Not Helping Real Estate

Published on 2011-01-19 07:42:00

2010 was not only the second worst year for home construction in half a century, it also occurred during an aggressively-hyped economic recovery. What does extreme weakness despite the economic recovery reveal about the state of real estate? It sugg > read more

States Warned of $2 Trillion Pensions Shortfall

Published on 2011-01-18 16:33:00

Is anyone listening? Headline: States Warned of $2 Trillion Pensions Shortfall US public pensions face a shortfall of $2,500 billion that will force state and local governments to sell assets and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Gold Sold in Tokyo Vending Machines Competes with Drinks, Sweets, Lingerie

Published on 2011-01-18 15:22:00

Convenience and ease of purchase of public purchase is slowly increasing. This trend illustrates the importance of comments made by Jim Rogers in a recent interview. "He said jewelry shop windows... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websi > read more

Central Bank steps up its cash support to Irish banks financed by institution printing own money

Published on 2011-01-18 08:39:00

What's new here other than a rare public omission? Headline: Central Bank steps up its cash support to Irish banks financed by institution printing own money EMERGENCY lending from the ECB to banks... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Rising Food Prices

Published on 2011-01-17 17:21:00

Don't forget currency devaluation as another big reason. Inflation is everywhere despite headlines suggesting otherwise. CRB foodstuffs relative to all spot commodities remains well below the 2001... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websi > read more

Illinois Tax Hikes Will Hurt Companies

Published on 2011-01-17 17:01:00

Federal stimulus counter balanced by increased State deterrence. Headline: Illinois tax hikes will hurt companies The major tax hikes passed by Illinois lawmakers early Wednesday will hit... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for > read more

The Gold Market Is 'Tight'

Published on 2011-01-17 13:31:00

Controlled markets in which price does not equilibrate supply and demand are often characterized by shortages. When this happens in gold market, it’s called “tightness” rather than shortages. It... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my w > read more

Hu Highlights Need for U.S.-China Cooperation, Questions Dollar

Published on 2011-01-17 10:43:00

Jim said it best, "MOPE is all that will be produced at the upcoming Hu / US Administration meeting. That and of course the ever present photo op." Headline: Hu Highlights Need for U.S.-China... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

States Scramble While Another Big Flush Is Executed

Published on 2011-01-17 10:02:00

The manner in which California ‘solves’ its fiscal problems will likely be the template for other cash strapped States. If California (and other States) can’t agree on meaningful spending cuts, a... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

Deficits Carry Consequences

Published on 2011-01-16 21:12:00

When spending exceeds revenue collected, layoffs within the public sector are inevitable. These are the consequences of the well-established vicious cycle in the US Federal Budget Deficit - The... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

John Williams Eyes Gold as Insurance Against Armageddon

Published on 2011-01-16 15:38:00

A very good way of looking at gold and its historical performance. Let me start by saying that although I have a number of gold bugs as clients and I love gold bugs, I'm not one myself. As I've... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

Euro Operation Entering Accumulation Phase

Published on 2011-01-16 11:48:00

Connected interests have purchased weakness, while retail players, following the endless barrage of negative euro zone headlines, have sold it. Euro and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website f > read more

Reality and Perception Rarely Meet In Gold

Published on 2011-01-16 11:46:00

While many investors fret over coordinated headline ‘diversions’, they always seem to miss important changes within the paper markets of control. The increased market depth (volatility and volume)... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my w > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-01-16 11:20:00

Alex, History suggests that nationalization, while always a short-term possibility, is never sustainable over the long-term. Will the same individuals that run the post office for billions in losses... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Liquidity Warning For Silver From Germany

Published on 2011-01-14 18:54:00

Liquidity warning for silver from Germany's BullionVault. Due to high demand our own silver stocks are exhausted right now. As BullionVault is only dealing with physical bars which are already in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Battle Over Perception

Published on 2011-01-14 12:09:00

What proportion of rising retail sales is driven by inflation? The unexpected strength often cited by headlines as a recession buster quickly disappears when US dollar (nominal) retail sales are... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit > read more

Fear and Doubt Create Volatility

Published on 2011-01-14 09:30:00

Fear and doubt create volatility which hides the covering of large short positions into weakness. As Turk suggests, ‘momentum toward hyperinflation is accelerating’ as global currency devaluation... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Bad Money Drives Out Good

Published on 2011-01-14 07:01:00

The allure of cashless society is strong within an environment of currency debasement. Gresham's law, the tendency of bad money drives out good, is becoming problematic for the monetary authorities... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Gov't moves to limit speculative commodity trades

Published on 2011-01-13 18:04:00

Government policies in regards to money management and supply relative to demand, not speculation, drive up commodity prices. Speculators, regardless of their size, cannot create or maintain a trend... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my web > read more

The Problem Is Debt Not Economic Growth

Published on 2011-01-13 13:14:00

The rising stock market and U.S. dollar will be interpreted by some as an indication that the economy is improving. The reality is that stocks, commodity, and precious metals markets, and 'economy',... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my web > read more

Potential For Social Unrest With Rising Commodity Prices –Jim Rogers

Published on 2011-01-13 13:12:00

Rising commodity prices could trigger social unrest in some countries in the future, says noted commodities investor Jim Rogers. Supplies for many natural resources low and demand for them high,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit > read more

Follow The Money, Follow Trend Energy

Published on 2011-01-13 09:59:00

David Rosenberg is a class act. I still consider the best currency position to be 50%Swiss Franc and 50% Canadian dollar. Rosenberg gives you the basis for the Canadian. Jim Source:... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full l > read more

National Municipal Bond Market

Published on 2011-01-13 08:09:00

Yesterday's commentary, indiscriminate selling in munis, discussed the growing stress in the municipal bond market (munis). The new lows in REV(E), divergence with price and illustrated below,... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website f > read more

Yuan's appreciation no great help for US economy

Published on 2011-01-13 07:04:00

Global economic imbalances are not created by interest rate differenitals or exchange rates. NEW YORK - The appreciation of the Chinese currency, the yuan, would not be a great help in reducing the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my web > read more

States still facing big budget gaps after two tough years

Published on 2011-01-12 13:47:00

The problem of illiquid States, clearly not limited to the Euro Zone, will not go away quietly. The nation's battered state governments face a collective $41 billion budget gap next fiscal year, a... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

10-Year Auction Results

Published on 2011-01-12 12:29:00

Good or bad, strength or weakness, are often defined by one’s perspective. The 10-year bond auction, from the perspective of the bid to cover ratio, was viewed by many as strong (bond). A look under... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

Indiscriminate Selling in Munis?

Published on 2011-01-12 11:16:00

Capital will do what is necessary to protect itself. While the Fed talks about balking at the prospect of bailout out the States, it is foolish to think they've adopted a wait-and-see approach here.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my web > read more

Brown seeks 5-year extension of California taxes

Published on 2011-01-12 10:18:00

Austerity and increased taxation carries economic and social consequences. Government must 'learn' to think small again, but that's not easy in today's socialized framework. Headline: Brown seeks... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Public strongly opposes debt ceiling increase: Reuters/Ipsos

Published on 2011-01-12 08:58:00

As sentiment begins to favor austerity measures, a follow up poll should ask if the public is ready to accept the consequences of not do so. In words, should we not kick the can down the road to live... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

The New Path To Prosperity Through Increased Taxation

Published on 2011-01-12 08:40:00

Capital (the markets), regardless of economic plans directed towards self-preservation, remains the dominant economic driver. The path to prosperity through increased taxation carries specific... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

Groceries Get Downsized

Published on 2011-01-12 08:34:00

Byproduct of currency devaluation. The public is beginning to catch on. Groceries Get Downsized [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

Rising Chinese Inflation to Show Up in U.S. Imports

Published on 2011-01-12 08:06:00

Currency devaluation inevitably leads to loss in purchasing power. Headline: Rising Chinese Inflation to Show Up in U.S. Imports When garment buyers from New York show up next month at China’s... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websi > read more

Quiet Accumulation in Loonie

Published on 2011-01-11 10:38:00

While parity or better with the dollar surprises the 'experts', it does not surprise capital. The new highs in REV(E), also known as trend energy, and positive divergence with price imply quiet... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

The Message of the Tape

Published on 2011-01-11 09:32:00

The message of the market, in its various forms, can be read by anyone willing to look. Market internals, or participation within the tape, is yet another method to assess the ‘strength’ of a trend.... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

Who Will support The Yen in 2011-2012?

Published on 2011-01-11 08:41:00

The rising Yen, supported by what Armstrong characterizes as a black hole event, reflects a transition shift in confidence from the public to private sector. This rise is not to be confused with... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-01-11 08:35:00

One thing is certain, gold is slowly finding its way into the hands of the public again - Las Vegas casino unveils vending machine that spits out gold Mr De Groot, FYI, I hope you favor it with... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit > read more

Illinois Governor Flees Capitol Through The Basement After Disastrous Meeting On State Budget

Published on 2011-01-10 18:50:00

The path to economic prosperity through increased taxation apparently runs through the basement. Headline: Illinois Governor Flees Capitol Through The Basement After Disastrous Meeting On State... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websi > read more

Sprott Physical Silver Trust Updates Investors on the Delivery Status of its Silver Bullion Purchases

Published on 2011-01-10 18:44:00

"Frankly, we are concerned about the illiquidity in the physical silver market," said Eric Sprott, Chief Investment Officer of Sprott Asset Management. "We believe the delays involved in the delivery... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Movement of Capital From West to East

Published on 2011-01-10 15:52:00

This doesn't jive well for the positive economic rhetoric or the recent suggestion that the Fed may need to mull exit late 2011. There’s an old saying that ‘talk is cheap’. The Fed's policies for all... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit > read more

Foreclosure-gate Expanding?

Published on 2011-01-10 14:46:00

The housing problem, figuratively described as a "hole", is much deeper than people realize. Foreclosure-gate could expand the proper paperwork becomes precedence for other States. Compounding the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

The Monetary Game Is Elusive

Published on 2011-01-10 14:29:00

Bailouts and infinite QE could not happen without the direct and indirect backing of the printing press. Today’s printing press is mostly electronic today; it’s the mechanism that supports currency... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

Hedge Fund Buying & Commercial Selling in Gas

Published on 2011-01-10 07:03:00

Increase buying from hedge funds has been offset by some selling from commercial traders into price strength. Natural Gas ETF and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Economic Recovery And Debt

Published on 2011-01-09 10:10:00

Consumer debt up ticked in November. As goes debt burden, so goes the economic recovery. This unsustainable relationship will become a lesson forced by the market that will culminate in tears. Total... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Great Commodity Bull Market

Published on 2011-01-09 09:27:00

Long or short, there is only one side - the right side. The great commodity bull market, while having its setbacks and fair share of 'fear and doubt' headlines, continues to progress. A series of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit > read more

Short Side Becoming Statistically Crowded

Published on 2011-01-09 08:18:00

$66 billion in new government promises will be auctioned next week. The short side of the trade is getting statistically ‘crowded’ from the retail money perspective. Retail money, often heralded by... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

Confusion and Doubt Reign Supreme In Headline Rhetoric

Published on 2011-01-07 16:21:00

Confusion and doubt reign supreme with the rhetoric and discussions of the "gold trade." Get used to it. Also, recall about the specifics of the arguments is extremely short. Arguments, especially... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websi > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-01-07 16:06:00

As I told you yesterday this is big. Unless a law is passed to make legal, what is clearly illegal, the banks are once again is deep pooh pooh. That just means our kids & grandkids will have to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Rising Prices, Falling Purchasing Power, Contraction in Benefits and Health Coverage, etc

Published on 2011-01-07 13:39:00

Rising prices, falling purchasing power, contraction in benefits and health coverage suggest falling standard of livings across America despite suggestions that everything is normal. There are all... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websi > read more

The Problem Is Debt

Published on 2011-01-07 08:58:00

Those with power (in power) will do anything to maintain it. Even if anything includes shooting the economy in the foot in the process. The problem is excess debt and taxation within a framework of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Labor Market Remains Weak

Published on 2011-01-07 07:46:00

While the headlines try to spin today's employment numbers as strong, they will likely ignore the fact that early stages of the liquidity driven recovery remain comparatively weak. Roughly 1.1... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website f > read more

Long Range Weather Forecast

Published on 2011-01-06 16:51:00

WANews11No01 2011 - Another year of weather extremes warns Piers “Solar-lunar driven major jet stream blocking will continue through January and the whole of 2011 giving more extreme cold and snowy... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my w > read more

Geithner says U.S. could hit debt limit by March 31

Published on 2011-01-06 12:50:00

Kicking the can down the road requires more debt. It is foolish to assume that this debt will be repaid in anything by devalued dollars. Headline: Geithner says U.S. could hit debt limit by March... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Plan To Trade Gold in Renminbi

Published on 2011-01-06 11:17:00

The trading of gold in renminbi opens the door for arbitrage with dollar. This will allow the Chinese to continue attacking the dollar as "the reserve currency". Headline: Gold demand to zoom in... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit > read more

As Expect Drama In The Silver Market

Published on 2011-01-06 09:05:00

As expected, the silver market has been characterized by drama on both sides of the trade. The rhetoric from both sides of the nontransparent operation has approached spiritual levels. The message of... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Currencies Will Rise During Economic Contractions And Expansions

Published on 2011-01-06 08:32:00

Like it or not the bailouts and massive liquidity injections, part of operation kick the can down the road, have kept this economic downturn classified as a recession rather than depression. Some... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websi > read more

China to buy 6 billion euros of Spanish debt: report

Published on 2011-01-06 07:12:00

Let's see if China has similiar interests in State muni bond auctions. Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang has said his country is willing to buy about 6 billion euros ($7.9 billion) of Spain's public... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

It's Not Your Imagination: Your Juice Has Been Downsized

Published on 2011-01-05 13:48:00

Another way of looking at currency devaluation, often cited as a rise in the general price level of goods and services, i.e. inflation, is the reduction in purchasing power over time. The following... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Bad Money Drives Out The Good

Published on 2011-01-05 10:33:00

Gresham’s law – “bad money drives out the good”, driven by the effects of currency devaluation, also know as inflation and hyperinflation, ensures that push for cashless society will grow as the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

Ignore The Spin and Follow The Cycles

Published on 2011-01-05 08:06:00

Here it comes, the unexpectedly strong economy of 2011. The labor market continues to ignore spin and follow the cycles. An 'improving' job market and the economic spin it supports will end when... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websi > read more

Race To Devalue Across The Globe

Published on 2011-01-05 07:16:00

The race to devalue fiat remains unperturbed across the globe. Chile, following Venezuela's decision and logic, has moved to weaken the peso against the dollar to 'help' exports. If policy ‘cause... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

The Message From Gold Stocks

Published on 2011-01-04 17:54:00

A breakout gap was created in the gold miners index on 11/4. This gap has acted as support three times since its formation. The first test of support, circled red, came on a surge in volume. This... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit > read more

It Doesn't Take Much

Published on 2011-01-04 14:48:00

Beat the grass to startle the snakes. It’s doesn’t take much. Fear and doubt interspersed with a lot of arm waving will scatter the weak hands faster than a loud knock at the door at an underage... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Mailbox

Published on 2011-01-04 10:53:00

Jim Wilkerson and Arizona Wealth Management, an avid reader of Insights and jsmineset.com and community member, invites you to discover our Comprehensive Wealth management Services. Please consultant... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

The 'Reasons' Are Intended For The Weak Hands

Published on 2011-01-04 09:56:00

Gold drops on equity rally? More headline fodder designed to misdirect. The headline might as well associate the decline with falling temperatures in January. As I said in previous commentary, here... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Private Investing Plans Are Large Pools of Untapped Funds

Published on 2011-01-04 07:32:00

What the government gives, they can take away. So called carrot on a stick investing plans represent a large pool of funds of untapped funds that have no escaped the vision of cash strapped and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

Connected Money Already Acting (Anticipating)

Published on 2011-01-03 18:56:00

The following is a note from Jim Yra Speaks, CIGA Craig reports Yra on CNBC: Hi Jim, I hope this note finds you safe and healthy in Africa. Your friend, Yra was on CNBC this morning discussing... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

More Reality Defined By Headlines

Published on 2011-01-03 16:54:00

The real or constant currency oil trend remains down since mid 2009. This means that headline argument of Oil has climbed above $92 on the anticipate of economic growth can only be described as horse... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Food Stamps No Long For Poor and Uneducated

Published on 2011-01-03 16:30:00

It’s a recession when your neighbor looses his job, but it’s a depression when you lose yours. Gently massaged economic time series and biased expert analysis hide not only a growing number but also... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

I Hear The Secrets That You Keep

Published on 2011-01-03 15:01:00

The markets, in addition to being one of best forms of intelligence on the planet, are a top notch weather forecaster. The information is there for everyone to read. For many, their forecasts remain... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Drama In The Silver Market

Published on 2011-01-03 08:22:00

The entrance of Carlos Slim into the market will not alter the strength of a trend that showed signs of accelerating in early 2010. The entrance of big names and money, however, will add to the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

Graphite Market

Published on 2011-01-02 12:52:00

(CIGA) Tom suggests that China, similar to rare earths, controls the graphite market. Hi Eric, I think that JS Mineset readers would be interested in knowing that China also controls the world... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

Are You Still Kicking Yourself?

Published on 2011-01-02 09:29:00

Those intent on classifying investment world into emotional states have lost the “the game” before it starts. Gold, silver, real estate, stocks, bonds, neither the pessimist’s nor optimist’s best... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit m > read more

The Hammer Of Change Has Already Dropped

Published on 2011-01-02 08:25:00

The market, regardless of the actions of central planners, has been and will always be in charge. This painful lesson from history, unfortunately, is rediscovered within a backdrop of finger pointing... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my we > read more

Connected Money Will Reposition As OPM Does the Heavy Lifting

Published on 2011-01-01 08:34:00

While the US and its monetary supports continue whistling past the graveyard in regards to the U.S. dollar (US Dollar Seen Rising In 2011 After 2010) their headline rhetoric continues to obscure... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website > read more

State Budgets: Day of Reckoning

Published on 2011-01-01 07:36:00

The formula (vicious cycle) at work at the State level as described by 60-minutes. State Budgets: Day of Reckoning Source: youtube.com From Bob [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] > read more

US Dollar Seen Rising in 2011 After Rough 2010

Published on 2010-12-31 17:05:00

This is the last piece of spin for 2010. The dollar remains the ultimate safe haven," Prasad said. My response to this tireless spin argument is bull. Gold trend, priced in a composite of fiat... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my websit > read more

Public to Private Transition: Identify & Adapt

Published on 2010-12-31 12:19:00

Identify and adapt or the markets will kick your ass in 2011. Yet another transition from public to private sector (cycle) will catch many playing by the old rules. Long-Term U.S. Corporate Bonds... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my web > read more

Injection Phase From Hell Has Begun

Published on 2010-12-31 10:26:00

There’s a reason why you know Jim and Dan. It's a combination of talent and wisdom. Please read Dan's comments on jsmineset.com track record. Never let any market rhetoric, short term price targets... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my > read more

Chinese Money In Africa

Published on 2010-12-31 08:13:00

The Chinese have invested heavily in the rare earths elements around Lake Victoria. The road through the northern section of Serengeti in Tanzania is the most direct route to the coast. Headline:... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my webs > read more

Here Comes The Drama

Published on 2010-12-31 07:40:00

BT, Silver is clearly within a long-term secular up trend. This overrides any short-term technical targets. The silver ‘newbies’ entering the fray after an undisputed breakout will accelerate the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my w > read more

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