official product of... New England NAO      The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will remain neutral... January 16-19. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be increasingly Positive January 20-27. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28 to February 4.NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. The NAO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is also currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will remain neutral... January 16-19. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will then be increasingly Positive January 20-27. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28 to February 4. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will remain neutral... January 16-19. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be weakly Positive January 20-27. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral to weakly Negative January 28 to February 4.NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. The AO - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will remain neutral... January 16-19. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will then be weakly Positive January 20-27. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be neutral to weakly Negative January 28 to February 4. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will remain neutral... trending very weakly Negative January 16-19. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will then be increasingly Negative January 20-27. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral January 28 to February 4. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. The PNA - Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently neutral. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will remain neutral... trending very weakly Negative January 16-19. The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will then be increasingly Negative January 20-27. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral January 28 to February 4.NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currently weakly Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be weakly Negative... trending neutral January 16-18. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be increasingly Positive January 19-27, then trend neutral to very weakly Negative January 28 to February 2. The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currently moderately Negative. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Negative January 16-18. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral... trending very weakly Positive January 19-27, then trend neutral to weakly Negative January 28 to February 2. The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be very weakly Positive to neutral... January 16-19. The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will then be increasingly Positive January 20-27. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be neutral to very weakly Negative January 28 to February 4. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.Indice Forecasts are for Extended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts. EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Rising heights over the east-central Pacific... will encourage a strengthening Negative EPO Ridge to expand northeast. Positioning the Polar Vortex over east-central Canada, however due to rapid changes in the eastern Pacific in association to increased Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity... the pattern will again become progressive. These changes will limit classic blocking from taking place in-relation to establishment of a true -AO & -NAO pattern... allowing for milder systems to effect New England, followed by a weakened polar front January 17-20. As these changes occur, the Polar Vortex will shift over northwestern Canada... as temperatures moderate to above normal levels over New England January 21-24. LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: The 500-millibar Height Pattern in association to increasing MJO activity will promote a strengthening Positive EPO, as the Vortex shifts over northwestern Canada & Alaska. Temperatures will be above to briefly much above normal in New England January 25-31, but significant changes will occur again... as the intense MJO influence weakens beyond February 2. These changes will promote a re-establishment of the Negative WPO/EPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... that may encourage an overall -AO / -NAO pattern beyond February 4. - Prepared by: Daniel Viens

read more: JANUARY 8-15, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?