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Money Flow for May Week 4
Published on 2012-05-25 20:27:00
Further to my my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 4 of May 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they all closed a bit higher than the prior week on lower volumes. Price is hovering just above the lower Bollinger Band and the 50 sma (red). In the case of the NQ, price is still... Read more... > read more
Corrective So Far
Published on 2012-05-25 07:33:00
I mentioned a couple of days ago that I was looking for a slow rally with deep retracements to signal that the rally is a corrective bounce, and that's certainly what we're seeing so far. The rally is on, and ES has put in both a higher low and high now, but neither was much higher than the previous one. That said we still have a possible W bottom... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 25, 2012
Published on 2012-05-25 06:49:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-25 04:38:00
As you know, when I don´t have much to add that can justify a modification of the “ideas” that I have been explaining in the previous posts I prefer to write a short update. Today is one of those days. There are no reasons to modify may medium-term and short term preferred scenario. Regarding the short term one I maintain the “idea” that SPX on May 18 has established the wave (A) within a Double Zig Zag which began on April 2. Read more... > read more
The Key to Economic Stability in China, Europe, and US.A.
Published on 2012-05-24 20:19:00
As I see things, China has the ability to fix its own problems through > read more
Now Short Compuware (CPWR) and 2 Other Short Setups
Published on 2012-05-24 13:43:00
It has been a pretty good day today, and quite a change from yesterday, where despite the initial market decline, not a single one of my short positions were working for me (weird, I know). However, today they are all working in textbook fashion. And Signet Jewelers (SIG) which i was down about -2.5% at the close dropped like a rock today off of industry-wide earnings reports that were dismal at best, > read more
1,2-3?
Published on 2012-05-24 07:45:00
Obviously I've been posting a lot of seriously bearish looking long term charts in recent weeks, and I should take a moment just to emphasize that I don't think that it's time yet to buy in a large supply of ammunition and baked beans and head for the high ground in preparation for the end of the world as we know it. What I am saying is that these... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 24, 2012
Published on 2012-05-24 07:35:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-24 05:13:00
We have a short-term tag of war between SPX´s EWP, which is suggesting that price is attempting to carry out a “relief bounce” and the EUR, which has lost the horizontal support at 1.2622 and it is breaching a long-term trend line support in force since the 2000 lows. As it can be seen in the monthly chart below the next support is located in the area of 1.2460 then there is virgin area until the 0.382 retracement of the entire rally from the October 2000 lows at 1.2128 > read more
Home Price Index Spikes to Four-Year High
Published on 2012-05-23 10:39:00
Data released on Wednesday shows that the purchase price of homes backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac spiked to a new four-year high, as shown on the graph below. We'll see whether this spike represents a turning point on increasing house prices (home price bubble forming?)...one to watch over the months ahead.In contrast, MBA purchase... Read more... > read more
My Apocalypse Charts
Published on 2012-05-23 08:23:00
I've posted quite a few charts in recent weeks and months that suggest that we could see a very bad 2012 indeed on equities, EEM, MSWORLD and so on, and I jokingly referred to my 'Apocalypse Charts' the other day when chatting to a trader friend. She asked me what I meant, and I replied that they were the various longer term charts suggesting that... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 23, 2012
Published on 2012-05-23 07:15:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical 5/23 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-23 04:57:00
Today I really don´t have anything that can be considered of “added value” to what I wrote yesterday in my technical update. Therefore I maintain the short-term scenario of a potential multi day rebound with a target in the range SPX 1340-1353, well clearly if price does not breach Friday´s lod. Unstable European political/social/economic environment is increasing the fear and uncertainty. Read more... > read more
Trade Analysis in JCI, WCRX, ATVI and Market Recap
Published on 2012-05-22 20:03:00
Today's trade analysis and setups in WCRX, JCI, and ATVI as well as a market recap in the S&P. > read more
Banks Hedging or Not Hedging is Not the Root Problem
Published on 2012-05-22 11:18:00
It seems to me that the > read more
Richmond Manufacturing Index in Decline
Published on 2012-05-22 09:33:00
Data released on Tuesday shows that the Richmond Manufacturing Index declined, and, as shown on the graph below, it's pretty evident that > read more
Rally at Support
Published on 2012-05-22 07:30:00
ES broke up through my short term declining resistance trendline at 1300 yesterday and we're seeing the rally from support that I was talking about. Where to now is the question? The first level of resistance is now just above, and that is at declining channel resistance in the 1323 SPX area. Second resistance is at a retest of broken support at... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 22, 2012
Published on 2012-05-22 06:29:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical 5/22 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-22 05:28:00
On Friday the critical support at 1292 withstood the Bear > read more
Two Trades I Am In To Play Today's Bounce
Published on 2012-05-21 10:30:00
So far, it's what I pretty much expected out of the market, sitting at the 1294 level on Friday's close, and six straight down days - makes for a highly probably bounce like we are getting so far today. At the moment, I'm not going to short anything new...yet, and I went ahead and closed out Friday's ATVI short swing-trade and covered at $11.90 from $12.06 for a 1.3% gain. I figured if we hold today's bounce (big IF in the final trading hour) that we probably will see a pop in the morning that w [..] > read more
SPX Reaches Pattern Targets
Published on 2012-05-21 07:53:00
The big news on Friday was that SPX tested, and went slightly below, the October high at 1292 SPX. That area was also the target for both the double-top, and sloping H&S, on SPX so those patterns have now played out to target and can be disregarded. 1292 SPX is a strong support level and we may see a bounce here: On the SPX 60min chart I have... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 21, 2012
Published on 2012-05-21 07:05:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Weely Analysis 5/20 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-20 14:46:00
Continued selling pressure has carried SPX to an important support located in the area of 1293. The impressive downside momentum in addition to extremely oversold breadth indicators are suggesting that the corrective EWP from the April 2 top is by no means reaching an end. I am inclined to expect more downside pressure ahead and/or a larger EWP before price completes its course of action and the intermediate up trend can resume with a potential fourth quarter rally. Europe probably is now [..] > read more
Canada's Business News Network
Published on 2012-05-19 12:49:00
A reader asked if I would do a post recommending Canadian on-line links to the world's financial markets.Here's my take (as a Canadian)...During my trading day I have my TV tuned to BNN(Business News Network). It's Canada's only television service devoted exclusively to business, finance, and the markets. Their commentators are very... Read more... > read more
Money Flow for May Week 3
Published on 2012-05-18 20:04:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 3 of May 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they all closed much lower than the prior week on higher volumes. They have now broken out of their ranges from January. The YM, ES & NQ are sitting above their weekly 50 sma,... Read more... > read more
Dis'Like' Social Media
Published on 2012-05-18 19:22:00
The Facebook IPO has been the talk of the town for the last year. Discussions really heated up in the last month when they set the date. Well today (May 18th 2012) was the big day. Was it worth it? No..... Facebook (sym: FB) was talked about reaching prices of $60-$70-$80 on its big debut. They day's high was only at $45 with it finishing around the IPO price of $38. The $38 bottom for the day was due to the help of the underwriters. They are still sitting on tons of shares that the [..] > read more
Warning Signs For Trading Facebook (FB)
Published on 2012-05-18 09:25:00
I don't typically dive into the fundamentals when deciding whether to take a trade, and rarely do I post this kind of stuff on SharePlanner. But nonetheless, I felt like it was necessary today, considering we are just a half hour away from its IPO launch and there is more hype behind this stock than any other I've ever seen at a launch. > read more
RUT and TRAN Break Down
Published on 2012-05-18 07:54:00
The Russell 2000 and The Transports Index were holding up relatively well in this downtrend, but that ended yesterday. On the RUT I've posted the H&S there a few times as it formed, and the downside target is at 720. On the chart you can see that the support broken yesterday was at the H&S neckline last year: I was talking yesterday about... Read more... > read more
RUT and TRAN Break Down
Published on 2012-05-18 07:54:00
The Russell 2000 and The Transports Index were holding up relatively well in this downtrend, but that ended yesterday. On the RUT I've posted the H&S there a few times as it formed, and the downside target is at 720. On the chart you can see that the support broken yesterday was at the H&S neckline last year: I was talking yesterday about... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 18, 2012
Published on 2012-05-18 05:56:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical 5/18 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-18 05:44:00
Yesterday I mentioned that: ” Elliot Wave wise the absence of an impulsive decline or an Ending Diagonal suggests that price has not established yet a tradable bottom. Maybe what is needed is a final “flush out” which would allow a selling exhaustion and capitulation.” My suspicion was confirmed by the price action. Yesterday it was a different down day, for the first time since the down leg off the May 1 is in force we saw indications of fear although I am not sure that we have see [..] > read more
Charts of Interest for May 18th
Published on 2012-05-17 19:26:00
Charts of interest that I'll be watching on Friday (and next week) to see if bulls maintain control of bonds and U.S. $, and if > read more
I Shorted JCI At $30.73 And Some Trade Setups
Published on 2012-05-17 14:14:00
Not to much to report here on my end. As we go into the final hour of trading, I'm hoping to see some capitulation or a nice flush in price. I hold about six short positions right now, and I'd love to sell some of them on weakness. We are heading straight for a bounce and the likely place for it to occur is probably somewhere between 1275 and 1300. > read more
Riding The Band Down
Published on 2012-05-17 07:46:00
The bulls made another brave attempt to deliver a bounce yesterday, and failed badly again. I have channel resistance at 1334 SPX today and a break above might well be a bull trap, as both of the last two breaks were. Here's the channel on the SPX 15min chart: The closer that SPX gets to the twin pattern target 1292 area, the less reason there is... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 17, 2012
Published on 2012-05-17 07:32:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical 5/17 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-17 05:25:00
Today another short update since I don´t have much new to add from previous updates. Like I did yesterday today´s technical update begins with a brief look at the EUR, since “she” is the “mainstay” for an oversold rebound of almost everything. If the EUR does not provide assistance to the Bull´s cause then forget about some type of a bottom for the equity & commodity markets. But barring a crash overextended moves are usually at some point corrected adjusting the “tilt” of the [..] > read more
Bend Don't Break!!
Published on 2012-05-17 02:55:00
Gold and Silver Update
Published on 2012-05-16 16:47:00
Just a quick update to cover the gold and silver charts I didn't have time to post this morning. On gold my second level of support has broken, the possible IHS forming is close to being eliminated as an option and my third level of support is possible declining channel or bull flag support in the 1500 area. There's some good support in the 1500... Read more... > read more
Two Unstoppable Stocks
Published on 2012-05-16 14:48:00
A 1-2% dip in the two stocks below would warrant a buy signal. These stocks have practically whethered every market storm, and continue to come out stronger each time. > read more
1340 SPX Support Broken
Published on 2012-05-16 07:41:00
1340 SPX broke with some confidence yesterday and is no longer strong support. The double-top and H&S targets on SPX are in the 1292 area at the October high and that is the next big support level on SPX. Those are both high probability patterns and looking at a wide spectrum of charts this morning the odds that we will see that test in the... Read more... > read more
Market is Oversold
Published on 2012-05-16 07:16:00
The Piker Indicator flashed oversold/Go Long yesterday. Below is a chart of the last 4 oversold/Go Long signals- the signal is the White Candle Stick. A possible rally of 5 percent is very possible, as long as SPY remains above 133.13.... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 16, 2012
Published on 2012-05-16 07:06:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical 5/16 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-16 05:25:00
Yesterday I thought that the EUR, given the overextended move (from the May 1 peak), and the extremely oversold readings of the daily Stochastic and RSI, price could have bounced from the last support line left above the January lows in the area of 1.2800 > read more
Toronto's TSX Index, Commodities, and AUD/USD
Published on 2012-05-15 18:25:00
On Tuesday, Toronto's TSX Index closed below major support and below December 2011 lows, as shown on the Daily chart below. The RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators are still trending down. > read more
Plethora of Trade Setups: Both Long and Short
Published on 2012-05-15 14:06:00
No positions yet in any of these names, but I plan on adding a few as we head towards the close. Whether you are bullish or bearish there are plenty of opportunities below. > read more
Possible Bounce Setup
Published on 2012-05-15 07:45:00
SPX made a lower low yesterday and finally tested the 1340 support level. There has been no conviction break as yet. While that remains the case, and with the proviso that I'm expecting more downside and any bounce here will therefore be counter-trend, I'm thinking we may well see a relief bounce here. On the ES 15min chart the falling wedge I... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 15, 2012
Published on 2012-05-15 06:20:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical 5/14 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-15 04:09:00
Today only a short and brief update, it is holiday in Madrid so I will try to spend most of the day with my children. Yesterday we had a gap down and go. The 1340 SPX key pivot support level was breached. The Dow erased the positive divergence that was sustaining the “live on hopes” scenario of an immediate bullish resolution of the corrective pattern. > read more
Risk-on Risk-off Trades in JPM from 1990
Published on 2012-05-14 17:59:00
Further to the comments in my post of May 11th pertaining to JPM, the Monthly comparison chart below of JPM (purple), the four Major Indices, and the Financials ETF (XLF) shows the major swings of JPM from 1990 to > read more
What is a Bear Market ?
Published on 2012-05-14 14:56:00
I have not had much chance to write lately and have sorely neglected this blog. I have openly shared my scheduling difficulties and I look forward to a time after my family gets settled in our new town to write more often. I hope you will all forgive my lack thereof. But I do wish to broach this subject in light of current market conditions. I... Read more... > read more
Bear Flags and Other Trade Setups
Published on 2012-05-14 14:38:00
We're heading into the close and the market is playing with the notion of closing below 1340. If we close below that I'll be a little bit more comfortable about adding more of the short setups listed below. I've already added Sigma -Aldrich (SIAL) at $70.27. I was actually thinking the market might take a turn for the better, but all we really got out of the market was a very large bear-flag on the S&P 5 minute chart. With it being that obvious, I have no desire to take a stab at additional long [..] > read more
5/14 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-05-14 07:49:00
Markets moving lower after Europe post 2% drops across the board on their indexes. This is option expiration week so be careful with the 'crazy' trading that usually takes place. We will have to see if our normal pattern of putting in a morning low and buying up from there sticks today. We could see some buying when Europe markets close which would be typical as of late. Key today will be to stay light and nimble. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScjFmw-FVZI} > read more
The Trend is Down
Published on 2012-05-14 07:37:00
Whichever way you cut it the chart setup for equities here looks bearish. SPX still hasn't broken below 1340 support but the repeated failures at the broken H&S neckline last week look very ominous. There are in fact two bear patterns in play here. The first is the sloping H&S indicating to the 1290 area that I've been posting every day.... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 14, 2012
Published on 2012-05-14 06:54:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Weekly Analysis 5/13 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-13 13:11:00
If you are a regular reader of my technical analysis you must know by heart my preferred long-term count for SPX. As you already know, I am considering that from the November 2008 lows price is unfolding a wave (X) The wave (X), which by definition is a counter trend move, belongs to a large Double Zig Zag (from the 2000 Top). If this count is correct price, on November 2008, has completed the first Zig Zag, therefore once the wave (X) is in place, the EWP should open the door to a major reversa [..] > read more
Happy Mother's Day 2012
Published on 2012-05-12 23:15:00
... Read more... > read more
Getting Pretty Bearish Out There
Published on 2012-05-12 20:00:00
Sentiment in the market has been pretty bearish, especially with just a drop of 1% this week. If you recall this post last week, we looked at CPCE over .79 with the VIX under 20. We noted that if VIX stayed below 17.94 the market should rally, if it got above it, the market should go lower. Well VIX rallied, the market declined and CPCE went h... Read more... > read more
SPY’s Weekend Review -Chop After a Drop
Published on 2012-05-12 16:48:00
Money Flow for May Week 2
Published on 2012-05-11 20:39:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 2 of May 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they closed lower than last week's bearish engulfing candle, except the TF, which closed marginally higher. They are still range-bound from January. Until we see price break out of... Read more... > read more
Money Flow for May Week 2
Published on 2012-05-11 20:39:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 2 of May 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they closed lower than last week's bearish engulfing candle, except the TF, which closed marginally higher. They are still range-bound from January. Until we see price break out of... Read more... > read more
More Bearish Charts
Published on 2012-05-11 07:52:00
Well I said yesterday morning that the key to the day on SPX was the 1365.74 level, and the HOD was 1365.88. A marginally higher high but nothing worth writing home about. Declining resistance was pinocchioed but held on the SPX 15min chart, and unless that can be broken today in the 1360-1 area the bulls have nothing: If declining resistance on... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 11, 2012
Published on 2012-05-11 07:48:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
5/11 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-05-11 07:16:00
The bulls just couldn't put any strength together and really push this market higher. We ended up running into the 1368 resistance level and gave back most of our gains. The choppy action continues in the market making it good for day traders but a killer to swing traders. We are still working off 3 months of solid gains in the market so a correction was expected at some point. Where will this correction take us, we just don't know yet. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTMjRu8 [..] > read more
Daily Technical 5/11 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-11 04:51:00
Today, since I don > read more
SPX Reminder
Published on 2012-05-10 22:47:00
A gentle reminder of my Top-Down Analysis of SPX...Below is an update of the Daily chart...my comments still stand...looking for a break and hold beneath 1350...target is 1250.... Read more... > read more
JPM ~ After-Hours Trading ~ May 10th
Published on 2012-05-10 18:48:00
JPM > read more
Some Swing Trades To Consider
Published on 2012-05-10 14:04:00
I'm a bit mixed on this market. On one hand, I'm not finding a lot of short setups that aren't already well over-extended, and too risky to be jumping in at this point, however, there's enough resistance overhead on the S&P, where I'm skeptical of it rallying much and lifting some of these shorts off of their bottoms enough so that I can enter into a position. > read more
Bounce Targets
Published on 2012-05-10 07:50:00
SPX came within three points of hitting the 1340 level yesterday, but short term this looks like a bounce area. On the SPX 15min chart there was clear positive RSI divergence at yesterday's low, and the primary target for any bounce is the possible IHS neckline at 1365.74 and declining resistance from the high in the same area. If that is broken... Read more... > read more
5/10 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-05-10 07:31:00
Market has been a tough one so far. Definitely a day traders market out there. Swing traders are going to get chopped to bits getting stopped out both longs and shorts. We did come down and hit a support zone yesterday before getting bought up. Let's see if the bulls can follow through and put in a bounce in this market. As of right now any bounces should be shorted for lower prices. We are in a downtrend until confirmed otherwise. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-PqcBA4rMU [..] > read more
Trading Plan for May 10, 2012
Published on 2012-05-10 07:15:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Today's Trades: AAPL & AEIS
Published on 2012-05-09 14:53:00
Only two new trades for me today, combined with my trade in USO, which has held up decently well, even though I am a bit under water on the position (in at $36.74). > read more
The Results of Europe's LTRO 1 2
Published on 2012-05-09 09:25:00
These are the results of Europe's ECB > read more
5/9 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-05-09 07:40:00
Still getting a lot of overnight news out of the EU which is leading to gap downs in the morning. Not a good time to try and hold stocks overnight. Keep your trades quick and nimble in these types of choppy markets. Focus on trades with catalyst as they will buck the trend of the market. When everything is red on the bored people will look to these stocks that are up 20% to put their money in. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4NepgSXvvE} > read more
On The Brink
Published on 2012-05-09 07:35:00
I'm going to post a lot of very bearish looking charts today. That doesn't mean that equities are about to fall off a cliff here, but it does mean that there is a real possibility that they will. The 2012 potential topping patterns I've been posting for weeks have now all completed forming more or less, and we are at the point of decision where we... Read more... > read more
Daily Technical 5/8 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-09 05:18:00
This is a thrilling moment, and bears for the first time in a long time should be feeling a sudden quiver of excitement. SPX´s EWP from the April 2 top looks like a corrective and inoffensive 3 –wave down leg that is going to be bought by dip buyers. Some EW analysts are considering this EWP a wave (4) that will lead to the resumption of the intermediate up trend. This option is technically improbable since the first up leg off the October 4 low was not impulsive; hence I am giving to this op [..] > read more
Charts of Interest
Published on 2012-05-08 20:06:00
Charts of interest that I'm watching over the next few days are shown below...action of late has been in favour of the bears (except the U.S. $)... > read more
Head and Shoulder Patterns
Published on 2012-05-08 07:19:00
Well I missed a boring trading day yesterday it seems, but from a technical perspective it was interesting. On my SPX 15min chart I'm seeing strong positive RSI divergence at the low and a poor quality IHS mostly formed. I also have a declining channel with channel resistance in the 1380 SPX area today: I was talking about bearish reversal... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 8, 2012
Published on 2012-05-08 07:12:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Trade Analysis & Market Wrap-Up
Published on 2012-05-07 21:24:00
Here's tonight Trade Setups & Analysis as well as Market Wrap-Up Read more... > read more
1.86% Ten Year and the Market
Published on 2012-05-07 17:56:00
Since good ole operation Twist started the Ten Year has remained in a tight range giving good buy and sell signals. Whenever TNX went above 2.10 the market sold off- as seen with this post. Whenever the Ten Year yield dipped below 1.86%, the market rallied. Today TNX dipped below 1.86% only to close above above it as the market rallied.There is... Read more... > read more
Consumer Debt Bubble Looming?
Published on 2012-05-07 17:45:00
Data released on May 7th shows that consumer debt levels rose again and are now at their highest levels since January 2000, as shown on the graph below.As you can see, the "boom and bust" > read more
Chart Review 5/7 (SPY, XLF)
Published on 2012-05-07 15:57:00
The bears were pounding their chest this morning as futures indicated the market would continue its move down the world was over after the European elections. The bears were ready to eat some bulls, but once again the bulls showed that until the bears can managed to break support they will always get rocked. For a while, the only thing that w... Read more... > read more
3 Long Setups and 2 Short Ones
Published on 2012-05-07 13:00:00
Great day for the bulls, in fact it's a fabulous day for the bulls. There's not a trader in the world who was tilted to the long side, who didn't feel the emptiness in the pit of his (or her) stomach when futures opened up last night, and instead of being down 2% or more which would be a logical conclusion to make, we are instead holding support at 1368, and trending back upwards. Does it hold into the close? I think it does, bears are trying to savage any remnants of gains that might have been [..] > read more
Investor Confidence in Europe at Lowest Level Since July 2009
Published on 2012-05-07 09:46:00
Data released on May 7th shows that Sentix > read more
Europe Votes No
Published on 2012-05-07 07:11:00
The elections in Greece and France over the weekend were interesting, with that clown Sarkozy replaced by a socialist with a clear mandate for bigger government, higher taxes and deficits, and also a mandate to try to steer Europe in the same direction. The two main greek parties, in coalition, will also no longer have a majority and their ability... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 7, 2012
Published on 2012-05-07 06:46:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator
Published on 2012-05-06 17:19:00
Usually I post the weekly SharePlanner Reversal Indicator Chart (SPRI) but with futures pointing down (-13 only minutes after the open), I figured I'd show you what the Daily SharePlanner Reversal Indicator is giving us. > read more
Weekly Analysis (5/6)
Published on 2012-05-06 14:52:00
We are at a critical juncture. We have a challenging environment that demands patience, effort and skill. SPX price is not showing a straightforward path; instead it is unfolding an enigmatical pattern. I am aware of the issue that inter-market divergences are suggesting that the equity market is involved in a topping process. Bulls now don´t have the support form the NDX-NAS nor from the Russell 2000. In addition Financials (KBE-XLF) are lagging badly. We don´t have an healthy market if o [..] > read more
AUD/USD and its Pink Diamond Pattern
Published on 2012-05-05 11:49:00
This break below the 61.8% Fibonacci fan line on Friday (and the hold below the earlier break below the pink diamond pattern) is worth keeping an eye on on the AUD/USD forex pair...major resistance is at 1.0365 on this Daily chart below...the next MAJOR support > read more
Money Flow for May Week 1
Published on 2012-05-04 22:22:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 1 of May 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they reversed > read more
Patterns at War
Published on 2012-05-04 07:19:00
I've been noting the H&S forming on ES / SPX for a couple of days but I was surprised to see it break down yesterday. That throws the double-bottom targets into doubt on much more downside. Short term I have a possible falling wedge on SPX and a break above 1396 would look bullish. The H&S target is in the 1373 SPX area and if SPX gets... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 4, 2012
Published on 2012-05-04 06:54:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical 5/3 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-04 04:39:00
I maintain a bullish bias for the equity market since in my opinion the odds are very large that SPX has not completed the EWP from the October 4 low, therefore, as long as price does not break the critical pivot support at 1357, I am expecting a wave (5) up. This final wave will establish an intermediate top. If this scenario plays out then it will require some time to be accomplished. I will be looking for an ending pattern once we get determining factors such as extreme AAII bullish rea [..] > read more
A Comparison of DBC and AUD/USD
Published on 2012-05-03 18:25:00
Further to my post of May 2nd, there is a similarity in the behaviour of price action since last May, as reflected in the following two Daily charts of the Commodities ETF (DBC) and the AUD/USD forex pair. At the moment, each one is trading below both the 50 sma (red) and 200 sma (pink), both are at their respective lower Bollinger Band, the MACD... Read more... > read more
Bearish Reflections
Published on 2012-05-03 08:05:00
This first thing to mention today is that despite the title of this post I'm cautiously bullish for today and am still very much expecting the double-bottom target on SPX in the 1425-30 area to be made. That said, I'm seriously considering the possibility that we may see a second high of a double-top made there, or slightly higher close to the... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 3, 2012
Published on 2012-05-03 07:21:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Daily Technical 5/2 (Elliot Wave)
Published on 2012-05-03 05:21:00
In my last weekend up date I mentioned that I “touched up” my SPX “road map”. I was looking for a larger corrective Zig Zag from the April 2 peak with a target in the range 1340 – 1292 before the resumption of the intermediate up trend. But after last Wednesday´s price statement in conjunction with a simultaneous reversal of > read more
SPX:DBC Ratio and Comparison Charts on my Radar
Published on 2012-05-02 17:47:00
This 3-year Daily chart of the SPX:DBC ratio > read more
5 Stocks Gaining Momentum
Published on 2012-05-02 14:42:00
I just finished going through the charts this afternoon, and here are five stocks that I believe will make for great setups heading into the close and into tomorrow. > read more
Bulls Need to Perform Here
Published on 2012-05-02 07:47:00
We got the move up I was suggesting was likely, but it peaked short of where I expected and the pullback has been deeper than I expected. Overnight the pullback has continued, NQ is testing yesterday's low at the moment, and and (RUT) is well below yesterday's low. There is negative RSI divergence on the RUT 60min and SPX 60min charts and bulls... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 2, 2012
Published on 2012-05-02 07:22:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Trade Setups and Market Wrap-Up Video
Published on 2012-05-01 20:13:00
Here are the trade setups for tomorrow and today's market wrap up video. Read more... > read more
Mayday Buyer's Reward
Published on 2012-05-01 17:50:00
This is what > read more
Macro & Cheese Leftovers, Part 1
Published on 2012-05-01 16:01:00
My last post compared current market action to a similar pattern setup at the end of 2010. > read more
4 New Positions Today
Published on 2012-05-01 13:53:00
I took on four new trades today - two longs and two shorts. This brings me to a total of four longs and two shorts. I want to hedge myself a little still, because we haven't broken out and above 1422 yet. I also closed out my trade in CLX for a 0.24% gain. Not much, but I didn't want to hold them through earnings tomorrow morning. > read more
Mayday
Published on 2012-05-01 07:48:00
Dark rumblings around the blogosphere this morning as many seem to think that we will see more weakness. That's possible of course, and is made more likely by the lack of a strong bounce either at the lows yesterday or overnight, but overall this is a strong bullish setup with very well defined support at yesterday's lows on SPX. I'll explain why.... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for May 1, 2012
Published on 2012-05-01 07:09:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Trades & Market Recap Video
Published on 2012-04-30 18:36:00
After four straight days higher, today was to be expected. Nothing worrisome from a bullish perspective - consider today a breather of sorts.... Here's are some trades to take you into tomorrow as well as a market update... Read more... > read more
4/30 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-04-30 07:52:00
Happy Monday morning everyone! Bears chance to really take this market down was seriously hurt last week with the markets moving up almost 2%. We saw the biggest move come out of the Russell 2000 moving over 2.5%. Always a good bullish sign when small caps and tech lead the way. We are a bit overextended now so look for a digestion day or a pullback to the 1390 level before retesting those yearly highs. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpgPH9b53Ds} > read more
April Ends
Published on 2012-04-30 07:43:00
Today is the last day of April and with it ends the annual 6 month sweet spot for equities. That doesn't mean an imminent interim top is in the offing, but it's worth noting that late April and May are periods where such interim tops are often seen. As to the strength of this 6 months up and 6 months sideways to down pattern, it's impressively... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 30, 2012
Published on 2012-04-30 06:37:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
Sneaky Risk (The honesty post)
Published on 2012-04-29 11:26:00
When it comes to risk and trading, there are many aspects we could discuss. I was going to do a post that was a continuation of my last risk post but I have decided to put that on the back burner and instead write about something a bit more personal. My schedule as a Mom and a trader is a busy one. It goes something like this > read more
Market Update
Published on 2012-04-28 22:25:00
Money Flow for April Week 4
Published on 2012-04-27 22:41:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 4 of April 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that all four closed higher than last week's high...in fact, this week's candle on the ES, NQ & TF are "outside" bullish candles with closes very near their high...highly bullish... Read more... > read more
Macro & Cheese
Published on 2012-04-27 16:14:00
I was looking at April's action in the indices, trying to figure out which way it's gonna go out of this range boundary that we've been in since March. > read more
Buy The Dips IMO
Published on 2012-04-27 07:51:00
The key resistance trendlines were tested and broken yesterday, and the setup this morning looks clearly bullish. > read more
4/27 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-04-27 07:38:00
Happy Friday Everyone!!! Market moving higher this morning even though we had bad GDP reports. Bulls were able to follow through with their gains and move us out of this range we've been trading in. This is a good sign since it gets us out of the chop zone. The bears were unable to break below the range so we can see if we put the ball back in the bulls court. After two big up days I would expect some more chop and digestion today as we work off the move. Look to see if the bears can [..] > read more
Trading Plan for April 27, 2012
Published on 2012-04-27 07:35:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): > read more
10 Stocks Ready For The Short Squeeze
Published on 2012-04-26 15:40:00
Below are the charts of small-cap stocks that have been heavily shorted by the street, and should the market continue to rally like we are seeing here today, then these stocks could see their > read more
Decision Time
Published on 2012-04-26 07:46:00
There have been two main schools of thought on the bull side over the last few weeks, and the first expected that this retracement would be shortish, and would be followed by a wave 5 move to take equities to new highs and an interim top before a much bigger summer retracement. The second have been expecting a much bigger retracement now, probably... Read more... > read more
4/26 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-04-26 07:43:00
Good Morning Everyone!!! Looks like we had a good day in the markets yesterday and can probably thank Apple for that. We did bounce off of support on that lower flag level which will be a good level to watch in the future. We are seeing a lower open due to job numbers missing. We will see if the bulls can hold their gains from yesterday and make this a digestion day. We did reclaim the 20 and 50 day moving averages so that is a nice plus for the bulls. We are back in the range where [..] > read more
Trading Plan for April 26 2012
Published on 2012-04-26 07:43:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Pending Home Sales (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are showing a slight amount of weakness ahead of the bell. > read more
The Dirt Under the Carpet
Published on 2012-04-25 17:03:00
With today's Fed announcement out of the way now, we see that no new Fed monetary easing programs are underway. Instead, the U.S. is still left with this...their growing national debt. This is something that the Fed > read more
5 Long Swing Trades
Published on 2012-04-25 14:19:00
A few long setups to consider for a market that could very well continue this bounce into tomorrow. > read more
Double Bottoms and Fed
Published on 2012-04-25 08:14:00
SPX respected resistance at 1375 yesterday, and the bear case was looking ok until the AAPL earnings after hours, which has triggered a potentially very bullish setup. On the SPX 15min it looks as though SPX may gap over declining resistance in the 1380 area at the open, and may then retest the strong resistance area in the 1390-6 area that... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 25, 2012
Published on 2012-04-25 07:38:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), FOMC Meeting Announcement (12:30pm), FOMC Forecasts (2pm), Bernanke Press Conference (2:15pm) Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US futures are showing an opening for the Nasdaq of nearly 2%, the other indices are up moderately. > read more
Home Prices Rising but New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence Declining
Published on 2012-04-24 09:57:00
Data released on Tuesday shows that Home Prices rose, but New Home Sales fell, as shown on the graphs below.This data goes hand-in-hand with a decline in Existing Home Sales and in the NAHB Housing Market Index, as mentioned in my post of April 19th.Additionally, Consumer Confidence fell, as shown on the graph below. Since it's a "leading... Read more... > read more
4/24 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-04-24 07:57:00
Looks like the markets will be starting flat this morning. Bulls were able to hold support on the bottom of the bear flag on the SPX. Let's see if they have it in them to push this market higher with a solid bounce. We are looking at the 50 day moving average right above our heads so the thought of them making it through that is slim. Bears just need a breakdown of yesterday's lows to take us to 1340 were we have a bigger support level. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaJ9M9- [..] > read more
Another Bear Flag
Published on 2012-04-23 18:20:00
I have to be away all day on Tuesday, so this is just a quick post to cover the action on SPX today. On the 15min chart the bounce was just above the low two weeks ago and is forming a bear flag. There was no negative RSI divergence at the low so I'm not expecting a strong bounce. There should be strong resistance in the 1374 area which 'd expect... Read more... > read more
Top-Down Analysis of SPX
Published on 2012-04-23 18:05:00
Below are Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts of the SPX. The following is my top-down analysis as of today's close.Monthly Timeframe: Although price made a higher swing high this year over last year's high, the Stochastics, MACD, and RSI indicators did not...upside momentum is decreasing on the MACD histogram, and the RSI is hooking... Read more... > read more
Trading GOOG As A Bounce Play On Multiple Time Frames
Published on 2012-04-23 13:10:00
I went long today in Google (GOOG) despite the overall market being heavily bearish. The reasons were simple - the market gapped down significantly and usually after the first hour or so of trading there is a period of extended sideways trading to a possible bounce in the afternoon. Secondly, Google was testing the 200-day moving average, which bounced immediately off of the last two times it was tested. > read more
Contraction in Europe
Published on 2012-04-23 09:32:00
Data released on April 23rd shows contraction in Manufacturing and Services in Europe, Services in France, and Manufacturing in Germany, as shown below.World markets are down hard > read more
4/23 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-04-23 07:56:00
Good Morning traders! Looks like we are going to start this week on the downside with SPY down almost 1%. I came into the market today all cash and continue to trade with a shorter time frame. Remember we do not chase a gap down like we do not chase a gap up. We could see a reversal put in the market as stocks get bought up. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMvQ8FDFWRo} > read more
Equities Looking Weak Here
Published on 2012-04-23 07:32:00
I posted a possible bear flag on the ES 15min on Friday morning. It broke down during the day and has played out to within a couple of points of the flag target overnight. We might see a bounce here with some positive RSI divergence on the oversold 5 & 15min charts. If we see that then I have short term declining resistance in the 1367.50 area... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 23, 2012
Published on 2012-04-23 07:16:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): None Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US futures are down more than -1% ahead of the opening bell. > read more
Dollar Triangle
Published on 2012-04-23 06:40:00
The dollar is seeing a bounce here for a few reason, investors are moving into dollars as the safe currency as Euro continues to suck but more importantly the dollar is bouncing off a short-term uptrend and nearing its apex of wedge pattern. A break of this wedge pattern means that DX and the dollar will continue to trend upwards as it has since... Read more... > read more
DIA and SPY Bear Flag Breaks
Published on 2012-04-23 06:28:00
The market is starting off the week, down and with some vigor- futures are down over a 1%. This early selling has caused SPY to dip below its 50 day ema and support at 137.05 but more importantly SPY has broken its bear flag pattern. If the pattern continues SPY’s measured move is to 131.66, after SPY broke the flag at 137.66. A more... Read more... > read more
Good Fortune Coming to China?
Published on 2012-04-22 22:43:00
Data released on April 22nd shows an increase in China's HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, as shown on the graph below...as it's still below 50.0, the industry is still in contraction. The Final release is scheduled for April 30th.The following is an excerpt from the HSBC PMI press release:"Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey,... Read more... > read more
Charts & Stuff
Published on 2012-04-22 14:37:00
Homebuilders ETF (XHB)...Volatility Building
Published on 2012-04-21 11:42:00
I'll be watching these 2 charts (Monthly and Daily) on XHB in relation to New Home Sales data to be released > read more
Money Flow for April Week 3
Published on 2012-04-20 19:37:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 3 of April 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ > read more
BOOM! Another Option Expiration Week Done
Published on 2012-04-20 18:13:00
BOOM!!! Another option expiration done and over with! What does that mean for the members of Adam’s Options Income Newsletter? It means we just closed out our April portfolio with 100% profits. We are now 100% for 2012. You just can’t beat that! Now I know you are thinking you can’t possibly make money selling options, right? Wrong! Take a look at our model portfolio: Model Portfolio We are up almost 10% this year, and we are just getting started! That is 10% on a minimal inves [..] > read more
How to Play PR Breakouts
Published on 2012-04-20 13:28:00
Today went ahead and played an PR breakout. Noticed SPU PR this morning on Yahoo InPlay. Looked at the daily chart and saw a strong resistance at the 2.00 level. Set my buystop and got filled at 2.02, took half at 2.14 +6%, took another 1/4 at 2.20 for another 8.1%, and stopped out last half at 2.02 (buy-in). These PR stocks can be huge when you put them with a chart breakout. Now not only do you have people chasing the PR but now you have people waiting on the chart breakout. Put thes [..] > read more
April Opex Friday
Published on 2012-04-20 07:20:00
The possible bear flag on the SPX 15min broke down yesterday, but without much conviction, and with a decent recovery late in the day. There was no positive divergence on the 15min RSI, but if the rally sees the RSI move over the 50 line today then I would stop looking for that divergence as we don't always see it. As with the last move up, no... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 20, 2012
Published on 2012-04-20 07:06:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): None Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US futures are moderately higher ahead of the opening bell. > read more
SPY Bear Flag
Published on 2012-04-20 06:07:00
Over the last 10 days the market and SPY in particular has rallied off the lows of 135.76. Since then SPY has moved upwards establishing two new trendlines. The first is the extension of the long-term trend from December the second is a short-term trendline from 4/10. SPY upwards movement has also been capped by a uptrending channel. Al... Read more... > read more
Channel Surfing on the YM, ES, NQ TF
Published on 2012-04-19 18:41:00
You can see on the 4-Hour charts below that, > read more
Show Me Evidence of Improving Economic Conditions
Published on 2012-04-19 11:57:00
I keep hearing talk of improving economic conditions in the U.S., but > read more
Correction Due for Japan's Nikkei?
Published on 2012-04-19 09:38:00
Data released on Thursday showed that Japan's Trade Balance has now slipped to its lowest reading since 2000, as shown on the graph below. This balance has been slipping since its most recent high in early 2011.Japan's Nikkei e-mini futures index (NKD) generally reflected this pattern, until it began its bounce from January of this year, as shown... Read more... > read more
Retracement Flags
Published on 2012-04-19 07:53:00
I have slightly mixed feelings this morning, there is definitely a path for equities to move upwards today and ES particularly has very well defined support in the 1377.5 - 1379 area. If that holds today then we may see a push higher that I would be expecting to find resistance in the 1398-1400 SPX area, at the channel resistance on my SPX 15min... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 19, 2012
Published on 2012-04-19 07:45:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Existing Home Sales (10am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), Leading Indicators (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), > read more
Market Wrap-Up & AAPL, HOTT, DOW & GMCR
Published on 2012-04-18 20:51:00
Short Setups To Fade The Rally With
Published on 2012-04-18 11:26:00
So far today, the bulls are managing to keep the bears from running away with this market. However, I by no means believe that the selling is done and over with. I came into today with two short positions and now have about five. I actually looked hard for some long setups to put in this post, but there really wasn't much worth speaking of outside of HBAN and STX. However, I could have done 15 posts on short setups today. There is no shortage of them at all. Read more... > read more
Flying (from the) PIIGS
Published on 2012-04-18 07:33:00
The RSI divergences on the SPX 15min chart have been working very well in recent weeks, and that flipped to sell in the closing hours yesterday in the zone of strong resistance marked on the chart. My lean is therefore down today, though I'd normally expect a sideways to down day after a trend day in any case. As with the last signal the... Read more... > read more
One Year Ago Today...iBlogged
Published on 2012-04-18 07:28:00
I'm happy to report that I'm still > read more
Trading Plan for April 18, 2012
Published on 2012-04-18 06:03:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), EIA Petroleum STatus Report (10:30am) Premarket Update (Updated 8:00am eastern): US futures are slightly lower ahead of the opening bell. > read more
Very Simply...
Published on 2012-04-17 18:10:00
Looking at the Daily charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF, I'd be looking for a continuation of > read more
Best Learning Tool for Traders
Published on 2012-04-17 17:14:00
I usually spend some time floating around various trading forums. I use the term floating because I rarely post but more observe and take in the conversations that go on. One of the more frequent topics I see is new traders asking for help. What books do I read? What does this mean? Do I have enough money? Technical or fundamental analysis? Now we all had to start from square 1 and asking questions is usually how we moved to square 2. Nothing wrong with that. The problem is that you [..] > read more
10 Breakout Plays Coming Your Way
Published on 2012-04-17 13:30:00
I've been running my scans this afternoon looking for stocks that, should this market continue to rise, are ready to lead the pack in the traditional breakout sense. Most of the stocks below are all at or slightly above price resistance levels, and once again, assuming this market can continue this rally that we are seeing today, should lead to some very nice breakout plays. > read more
Bullish Overnight
Published on 2012-04-17 07:25:00
I was expecting consolidation yesterday followed by continuation down today, but that's not what the charts are suggesting this morning. Dow closed up yesterday as the stats suggested, but Nasdaq had a strong continuation down day. The support trendline of the NQ declining channel was hit and overnight there was a slightly lower low on positive... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 17, 2012
Published on 2012-04-17 07:17:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Housing Starts (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Industrial Production (9:15am) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are moderately higher ahead of the opening bell. > read more
U.S., European, and Chinese Financials
Published on 2012-04-16 18:29:00
As can be seen on this S&P Sector Summary, the U.S. Financials sector finished in second place today. The Daily chartgrid below shows these sectors, along with the S&P 500 Index. As can be seen, price is trading around either the 50 sma (red) or the 200 sma (pink). The graph below shows the gains/losses in these sectors since December... Read more... > read more
4 Swing Trades In This Choppy Market
Published on 2012-04-16 11:10:00
I don't have high expectations for today. It's likeliy to end up another 'Manic-Monday" where stocks refuse to do anything of note except frustrate traders on both sides. Right now I'm positioned with 4 short positions, with zero exposure to the long side after selling out of SPRD for a -3.4% loss and TLB for a 4.8% gain. Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 16, 2012
Published on 2012-04-16 07:26:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Retail Sales (8:30am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Treasury International Capital (9am), Business Inventories (10am), Housing Market Index (10am) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are moderately higher ahead of the opening bell. > read more
Looking Down
Published on 2012-04-16 07:20:00
The stats for today are strong as I noted in my weekend post which you can see here. Against that the technical picture looks unambiguously bearish, and I'm expecting more downside this week, though not necessarily today. I'll repost the SPX chart I posted at the weekend below, and that is the SPX 15min chart showing the rally last week as a bear... Read more... > read more
Short Idea — SLV
Published on 2012-04-15 19:42:00
SLV is looking weak here, Friday it closed down over 2% and over the last week has been trapped in a range of 32.15 and 30.36. In addition to staying in the range, SLV has been contained within 230 MA and 377 MA. Over the last couple of days though SLV has been spending more time at the bottom of its range. There is no support below the bottom... Read more... > read more
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator
Published on 2012-04-15 08:48:00
We are coming off of the worst week of the year for stocks, and the indices seem to be picking up momentum to the downside. We are still in bearish reversal mode, and I think that we could be setting up nicely for futher downside in the week ahead, particularly after watching panicky bulls sell their long positions into the close Friday. > read more
US Dollar - Big Picture View
Published on 2012-04-13 21:22:00
I've been posting my main USD chart regularly this year, and have been describing it as my big picture chart, but it is only the big picture in the context of the much shorter term charts that I generally post. It is a 30 month daily chart, and for those of you not familiar with it the main points to note are: 1. The falling wedge target at 88.71 2... Read more... > read more
Money Flow for April Week 2
Published on 2012-04-13 20:49:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 2 of April 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they all closed lower than the prior week, following last week's bearish engulfing candle. The ES has now joined the YM & TF in closing below its uptrending channel from the 2011... Read more... > read more
4 New Trades For Me Today
Published on 2012-04-13 10:37:00
I've made four new trades today - two longs and two shorts. Only one of the long positions will I try to hold over the weekend. > read more
Trading Plan for April 13, 2012
Published on 2012-04-13 07:28:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55am), Bernanke Speaks (1pm) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are down moderately ahead of the open. > read more
Possible IHS Forming
Published on 2012-04-13 07:17:00
I posted a chart on twitter late yesterday which has had over 1500 hits so far, and it's the most important chart to look at today. That chart is the SPX 15min chart which is showing the possible IHS that may be forming at the 1387.5 area neckline with a target on the 1417 area. Yesterday was a trend day, and that's generally followed by a... Read more... > read more
Buying Spree in the Cards Until April OPEX?
Published on 2012-04-12 18:42:00
I'm not predicting that this will happen, but here is one possible scenario as to where the YM, ES, NQ & TF end on April's Options Expiration Friday (April 20th). These particular targets fall at Fibonacci confluence levels and near various levels of the uptrending channel (which begins in mid-December 2011). Please note that my straight line... Read more... > read more
Dead-Cat Short-Plays
Published on 2012-04-12 14:19:00
This bounce we're getting isn't at all unexpected - we were very oversold in the short-term. The question is how long can it can go on for and how long can it sustain itself. I thought with yesterday's decline into the close, that we'd see more of the same possibly today, and instead, despite a bad jobless claims, we ramp up 1.3% on the S&P. It is absolutely possible that the selling over the last two weeks will go largely ignored and we'll ramp to new highs yet again. > read more
Recently Bearish Thursday
Published on 2012-04-12 07:33:00
There are three main options that I'm looking at on SPX over the next few days and today is the key day for the first option:We see a failure at immediate declining resistance (best seen on 15min chart) under the lower bollinger band and the daily 50 SMA as well, so this is a strong resistance area. This option sees an immediate continuation of... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 12, 2012
Published on 2012-04-12 07:27:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): International Trade (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are flat ahead of the market open. Asian markets traded about 0.7% higher. > read more
The Sky Has Not Fallen...Yet
Published on 2012-04-11 18:35:00
Further to my post of April 10th, there was a small overnight bounce today in YM, ES, NQ & TF, but no real advance during market hours, as shown on the 4-Hour charts below. Price remains below an immediate sharp downtrend line for now and is, therefore, still subject to further downside pressure until it's broken (with confidence) and held as... Read more... > read more
19 Stocks To Migrate Towards
Published on 2012-04-11 13:59:00
The last week for stocks have been nothing short of problematic for the bulls and for many, shorting stocks isn't an option. So what do you do? You can sit on the sidelines in cash, or you can start looking at some more of the defensive stocks out there that has withstood the selling pressures so far, and > read more
AAPL Lagging Today...
Published on 2012-04-11 11:36:00
AAPL is the laggard today, as shown on this 1-Day percentage comparison chart:BUT, just to put things in perspective, > read more
Trading Plan for April 11, 2012
Published on 2012-04-11 08:24:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Beige Book (2pm), Treasury Budget (2pm) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are flat ahead of the market open. Asian markets traded about 0.9% lower. > read more
Oversold Bounce
Published on 2012-04-11 07:36:00
The ES double-top target at 1353 was reached at the low yesterday, and ES has been bouncing overnight. I have declining (possibly channel) resistance in the 1376 area and a break over that would suggest that we may have seen a swing low yesterday: In the short term the SPX 15min RSI was showing positive divergence at the low yesterday, and I have... Read more... > read more
Long Setup–SODA
Published on 2012-04-11 06:59:00
SODA is another decent looking long play. Full Disclosure, I love this product I own a soda stream and use it everyday. But back to the chart and the setup. High Short Interest/Low Float: SODA is a heavily shorted stock FINVIZ.Com has it at a 69%, Yahoo has it at 81% as of March 15. This high short-interest means a heavy bearish sentiment on th... Read more... > read more
NYMO Below -100 and the Market
Published on 2012-04-11 05:08:00
NYMO or the McClellan Oscillator has hit a very low point -hitting -103 today. This does not happen to often, the last time was November 23rd. Below is a chart of the return of SPY 1 day after NYMO was below 100 from October 2009-Today: From the middle of 2009 to now, 4 out of 9 times the market was up the next day after NYMO was below 100. With... Read more... > read more
SPX 1250?...Sneak Preview of a Bear's Dream...
Published on 2012-04-10 20:28:00
From today's trendline break:To this possibility:... Read more... > read more
Long Set Up— CSIQ
Published on 2012-04-10 19:55:00
While everyone is preparing for the market to crash and getting short, there are some long opportunities. First one that looks good is CSIQ. Unlike the market CSIQ was green today and up 3%. This shows buying pressure if it can move up while the entire market is down big there is strong buying interest. What makes this stock a nice trade is 3 th... Read more... > read more
Toronto's TSX Index Erases 2012 Gains and Re-enters 2011 Bear Market Territory
Published on 2012-04-10 16:39:00
Further to my post of April 9th, Toronto's TSX Index closed below major support of 12000 today, as shown on the Daily chart below. All of 2012 gains (and some of 2011) have been erased after prices peaked in February. Price is, once again, back down at bear market levels seen immediately after S&P's downgraded the U.S. credit rating in August... Read more... > read more
Handful Of Stock Plays For Tomorrow
Published on 2012-04-10 14:16:00
Horrific day for the bulls - the worst they've seen this year. I actually thought we'd see the market bounce today and that the bear's resolve for a fifth straight day in the red was not in the cards. I managed to close out a few trades today including a long position that gapped up nicely in Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) at $3.23 for a 2.4% gain. > read more
U.S. Economic Optimism Still in Negative Terrritory as Wholesale Inventories Rise
Published on 2012-04-10 11:34:00
Data released on Tuesday reveals that Economic Optimism rose but is still in negative territory as Wholesale Inventories rose, as shown on the graphs below. Consumer optimism has rarely been above zero since 2007.As I'm writing this, market reaction, thus far, has been very negative, as shown on the 4-Hour charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF.... Read more... > read more
Germany's Exports Decline Amidst Increasing European Investor Pessimism
Published on 2012-04-10 09:31:00
Data released on Tuesday shows that Germany's Exports continue to drop amidst increasing European Investor pessimism, as shown on the graphs below. Investor confidence remains in negative territory below the levels seen in 2010 and at those seen in 2009. This data reflects recent data coming out of Europe which shows a weakening economy and... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 10, 2012
Published on 2012-04-10 07:42:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Wholesale Trade (10am), > read more
Waiting for a Break
Published on 2012-04-10 07:34:00
There was a bounce yesterday, but it lacked conviction, and looking across the indices there are quite a number of double-tops in play that have broken down and not yet reached target. For today on ES strong support is still at 1371.50, and first overhead resistance is at yesterday's high at 1382.75, where there is also some trendline resistance,... Read more... > read more
A Look at SPY, DIA and QQQQ
Published on 2012-04-10 07:00:00
Below is a look at the 3 major indicies and where they stand looking at the technicals of the chart. The broad theme is that while the short-term pressure has been down no one index is very bearish and remains above support. SPY: The chart shows how important this trendline is as well as the buying pressure that is around 137.65. Monday SPY bre... Read more... > read more
The Currency Pair Nobody Mentions
Published on 2012-04-09 19:07:00
I'm watching this Weekly chart of AUD/CAD as > read more
BRIC Countries and EEM Update
Published on 2012-04-09 17:59:00
Further to > read more
3 Bounce Plays for Tomorrow
Published on 2012-04-09 14:35:00
I'm expecting that we'll see a bounce in the market tomorrow. We've been down four straight days, and if recent history says anything, it says it has a very hard time going down a fifth straight day. I think the bulls will look to try and game this sell-off and see how much damage a market bounce can do the hopes of bears. In order to be one step ahead, I've put together a list of three stocks that are hovering at support and ready for the bounce after days of selling. > read more
Toronto's TSX and 12000
Published on 2012-04-09 10:47:00
Toronto's TSX Index closed last Thursday just above major support, as shown on the Daily chart below. At the moment, it is > read more
Spain and Italy...European Assets or Liabilities?
Published on 2012-04-09 10:25:00
Spain and Italy have their share of problems, which are reflected in these Daily charts below. Both have recent "falling knife" formations. A break and hold below 3-year lows on the Spanish index would be very bearish and difficult to stop-gap a bear exodus. Whether or not the recent bullish Golden Cross on the Italian index will be sufficient... Read more... > read more
Easter Break
Published on 2012-04-09 07:30:00
SPX ended Thursday's session perfectly poised to go either way. On the 60min chart support from the Dec 19th low was being tested, but was holding at the close: On the SPX 15min chart a declining channel and diamond bottom had formed and was testing declining channel resistance at the close. I posted this chart on twitter on Thursday night: No... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 9, 2012
Published on 2012-04-09 07:09:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): None Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are down in excess of 1% ahead of the market open. > read more
XLF and WFC Breaking Below Support
Published on 2012-04-09 06:43:00
This morning while futures and the broad based market is lower, so are various sectors. XLF the financial sector ETF closed Friday at support, breaking below its Diamond topping pattern which was noted here last week. This morning XLF is trading at 15.30 or 1.5% lower from Friday’s closed. This drop below support leaves XLF with no su... Read more... > read more
4/9 Morning Outlook
Published on 2012-04-09 05:57:00
Friday, in the futures market there strong selling after the jobs report came out weaker then expected. The broad based market was saved from this selling as it was closed for Good Friday. Now this morning the market opens to futures down to the levels from Friday. (Apparently the PPT doesn’t work on Easter weekend). The markets should op... Read more... > read more
Inflation or Deflation in China?
Published on 2012-04-08 21:02:00
The latest monthly > read more
Money Flow for April Week 1
Published on 2012-04-07 13:08:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 1 of April, 2012 (which was a short week because of the holiday on Good Friday).The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that they all closed lower than the prior week on a bearish engulfing candle (which is a warning that further downside... Read more... > read more
4 Easter Eggs - 2 Of Them With Long Setups Inside And The Others With Short Setups
Published on 2012-04-05 11:54:00
LONG: Suncoke Energy (SXC) - Nice consolidation recent days - recovered from the early morning weakness. Look to get long at $14.86. LONG: Shire Pharma Grp (SHPGY) - Upward rising channel which finds itself testing the lower end. I took a position in this one at $96.41. Looking for a bounce from here. My Stop-loss is at $90.38. SHORT: Seagate Tech (STX) - Current breaking below resistance. Wait to see if you can get some kind of 1-2% bounce and then load up to the short side. I'd like to see i [..] > read more
Trading Plan for April 5, 2012
Published on 2012-04-05 07:40:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Treasury STRIPS (3pm) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are moderately lower. > read more
Moment of Truth
Published on 2012-04-05 07:17:00
A string of important support trendlines on equities were hit at the lows yesterday. On SPX the support trendline from the Dec 19 low was tested. That may be the lower trendline of a rising wedge but the upper trendline lacks a third touch to confirm it: On NDX there is a definite though rather attenuated rising wedge and that hit support from Dec... Read more... > read more
Exxon Mobil XOM
Published on 2012-04-05 06:52:00
XOM has formed a triangle inside its range or bullish > read more
SPY Trendline Breaks But Remains Above Support
Published on 2012-04-04 19:15:00
The markets sold off today closing down almost a full percent. The selling was strong throughout the day but towards the afternoon after Europe closed the market was able to bounce off its lows of 139.34 and staying above its range of 139.63. What the bears did do was break the intermediate term trendline that started from December. This tr... Read more... > read more
17 Stocks That Only Go Up
Published on 2012-04-04 13:19:00
With the action of the past two days, it becomes a great exercise to scan for stocks that you'll want to buy on the pullback. Below you find a list of 17 stocks with some of the strongest uptrends in the entire financial universe. And I'm not just talking about over the last few months - I'm talking over the last few years. Stocks that have weathered unbelievable amounts of global financial turmoil, only to come out of them stronger. So plug these stocks into your watch-list and if you can get t [..] > read more
ECB Press Conference April 4, 2012
Published on 2012-04-04 11:52:00
Today's ECB press conference reveals a resolve by > read more
Trading Plan for April 4, 2012
Published on 2012-04-04 07:36:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are moderately lower. > read more
Liquidity Junkie
Published on 2012-04-04 07:10:00
What a liquidity junkie this market is. The Fed announced essentially no change yesterday and markets tanked across the board, equities, bonds, commodities, EURUSD etc, precious metals. Absurd. Equities have been rising ever higher on the expectation of a QE3 that has become ever less likely as it has risen, as the purpose of QE3 would be above... Read more... > read more
April 3, 2012
Published on 2012-04-03 17:17:00
Watch (for > read more
4 Mid-Day Swing-Trades
Published on 2012-04-03 13:08:00
SHORT: Omnicom Group (OMC) - Rising bearish wedge. Provides a great short opportunity once it breaks below support noted below. Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for April 3, 2012
Published on 2012-04-03 07:44:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Factory Orders (10am), FOMC Minutes (2pm) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are mixed/flat ahead of the open. Asian markets traded in a range from -0.6% up to +1.3%. European markets are seeing losses of about -0.4%. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Dissecting A Trade Setup On Multiple Time Frames
Published on 2012-04-02 14:14:00
It's important when trading to view multiple time frames, and not just sit on a daily, 5 minute or a hour chart alone. This is most important when swing-trading, as what is support on the daily chart can sometimes be resistance on the weekly or > read more
Trading Plan for April 2, 2012
Published on 2012-04-02 07:31:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): ISM Manufacturing Index (10am), Construction Spending (10am) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US futures are slightly negative ahead of the open. Asian markets were mixed/flat. European markets are seeing losses range from -0.1% to -0.8% Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Mixed Signals Overnight
Published on 2012-04-02 07:14:00
The immediate picture was looking distinctly bullish at the open of the overnight session, with a sloping IHS breaking up on ES, bonds looking bearish and EURUSD seemingly poised to break up. Some of that bullish picture is intact, but ES retraced to trash the IHS and break initial rising support, so the overall picture is in doubt. ES has... Read more... > read more
XLF Finanical Diamond Pattern
Published on 2012-04-01 15:08:00
XLF has been in a choppy tight range during the last couple of weeks. This see-saw price movement has developed a Diamond pattern. This Diamond pattern is inside a tight range between $15.47 and $15.97, this levels have prevented XLF from trending in either direction. The Diamond Pattern is a bearish reversal pattern, it starts with a strong up t... Read more... > read more
China's Manufacturing PMI is a Mystery
Published on 2012-04-01 11:13:00
Will the correct Chinese Manufacturing Data please present itself? As shown on the graphs below, two data > read more
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator
Published on 2012-03-31 14:21:00
When we got the downside reversal signal in the SPRI a month ago, it turned out to be one of the few times since this indicator has been published where the market definantly continued to march higher. Now we are on the verge of another signal to the upside. What I am most curious about is whether this reversal signal will only embolden this market ot march higher in the days and weeks ahead. > read more
A Review of 2012 Q1
Published on 2012-03-30 22:14:00
Further to my post of January 27th, I'll offer the following Quarterly timeframe charts of the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 Indices. There were impressive gains for this year's first quarter...the Dow's range was 1,067.89, the S&P 500's range was 160.29, the Nasdaq's range was 486.44, and the Russell's range was... Read more... > read more
Money Flow for March Week 5
Published on 2012-03-30 19:47:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week > read more
Milestones
Published on 2012-03-30 17:20:00
My blog has passed a few milestones this March. I published my 500th post on Wednesday 7th March, passed 500,000 lifetime pageviews on Monday 12th March, and Tuesday 13th March was the second anniversary of my first post on my blog, though I'd obviously written quite a few header posts around the blogosphere before then. Blog traffic has been... Read more... > read more
Milestones
Published on 2012-03-30 17:20:00
My blog has passed a few milestones this March. I published my 500th post on Wednesday 7th March, passed 500,000 lifetime pageviews on Monday 12th March, and Tuesday 13th March was the second anniversary of my first post on my blog, though I'd obviously written quite a few header posts around the blogosphere before then. Blog traffic has been... Read more... > read more
Shipping Out 2 Long Setups With 2 Shorts
Published on 2012-03-30 14:40:00
LONG: Dryships (DRYS) - Ideal triangle/continuation pattern. I'd buy on the breakout of $3.56, and keep the stop-loss somwhere below $3.30 if you can. > read more
Friday's Mixed Data
Published on 2012-03-30 10:59:00
There was mixed data released on Friday. The graphs below show that Personal Spending was up while Personal Income was down...this seems to be a re-occurring theme, as I last reported in my post of March 1st. Add to this the information from my post of March 7th, and it seems that the consumer is headed for disaster. How long it's sustainable is... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for March 30, 2012
Published on 2012-03-30 07:24:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am), Chicago PMI (9:45am), Consumer Sentiment (9:55) Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US Futures are moderately higher ahead of the open. > read more
Confused Yet? AUDUSD
Published on 2012-03-30 07:02:00
I have a provisional overall scenario for the next month or two that I'm expecting to play out. Obviously I may be mistaken, but it hangs together fairly well. On equities I think we are in a sideways type wave 4, which will be followed by a wave 5 up that will probably peak at a major pivot, either at 1442 SPX or slightly north of 1500. Given the... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for March 29, 2012
Published on 2012-03-29 08:03:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): GDP (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Corporate Profits (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am), Bernanke Speaks (12:45am), Farm Prices (3pm) Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US Futures are moderately down ahead of the open. > read more
Another Inflection Point
Published on 2012-03-29 06:23:00
SPX was very weak yesterday, breaking my first support level and bottoming in the next support zone in the 1395-1400 area. The move broke below rising support from the March low and a first look at the charts suggests a test of the lows on Friday, with rising support from November and the middle daily bollinger band in the same 1387ish area: Howeve... Read more... > read more
Revisiting Mr. Fat Finger
Published on 2012-03-28 19:01:00
I've done a couple of posts in the past on "Mr. Fat Finger"...one on > read more
13 Bearish Trade Setups
Published on 2012-03-28 14:09:00
The market has taken a surprise move lower today to the surprise of most, and in particular of those who fearlessly bought the dip (can you blame them though!?!). At this point, I think the move lower has little significance to it. Instead I'd wait to see if it can break through the lows from 3/23. That would be a telling development as it would cut short the breakout we had this week to new highs, and would instead put in a "lower-low" from the point we bounced at before. > read more
Potluck of Long and Short Swing Trades
Published on 2012-03-28 10:14:00
LONG: Rare Element Resources (REE) - Nice ascending triangle ready to breakout at around $6.63. Careful with the declining 200-day moving average, and look to take profits before then. > read more
Bonds Still Rallying
Published on 2012-03-28 06:46:00
SPX was struggling yesterday, and one of the reasons for that is the ongoing rally in bonds. ZB reached my first bounce target yesterday and broke up through it. My next bounce target is broken support in the 140 area, and with ZB in the 138 area that's still some distance away. I have a decent rally channel for ZB and the next obvious target is... Read more... > read more
ECRI's COO Re-iterates that a 2012 U.S. Recession is Imminent
Published on 2012-03-27 12:18:00
Data released on Tuesday revealed a decline in manufacturing and > read more
4 Long Setups In An Unwavering Bull Market
Published on 2012-03-27 11:11:00
Typically I give a few short trades, but with the market bouncing yesterday, and what that has indicated in the past, I figure we will probably see further upside before we see a significant pullback. If that doesn't happen, and we start giving up the gains today or tomorrow that we made yesterday (i.e. fill yesterday's gap), that could be a sign that things may begin to start rolling over. However, that is neither in the here nor now of today's market, and what we got going on currently is a ma [..] > read more
3/27 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-03-27 07:44:00
Another big breakout day yesterday in the markets especially when looking at the small caps. RUT is now over the highs it has been fighting with for a month. We could see a digestion day today as the markets take in that move yesterday. With that said be careful of the chop but also be ready incase we see a continuation of yesterday. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUFnLxERGCQ} > read more
Bull Patterns Break Up
Published on 2012-03-27 07:13:00
Well the bull flag setup I was looking at yesterday morning broke up, and I'm expecting to see more upside. How much is uncertain as SPX is nearing a key resistance level in the 1440 area. That area is also the retest of the broken support trendline from March 2009 into the high last year, so it is a significant level. On a break over it the path... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for March 27, 2012
Published on 2012-03-27 07:09:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9am), Consumer Confidence (10am), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am), Bernanke Speaks (12:45am) Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US Futures are mixed/flat ahead of the open. > read more
Into the Close
Published on 2012-03-26 22:40:00
This is a perfect day to point out why top calling is usually not a good idea, and why contratrading (against the trend) is difficult. Stay with the trend and let it be your friend. You will lose a lot more trying to short the market on the way up then you would if you went long and the market turned and you lost that day. Look at the poor TVIX longs. Seeing the market trying to gap up this morning is never fun when you realize you have no positions. Gap ups are the hardest to trade. A [..] > read more
Pending Home Sales Still Declining
Published on 2012-03-26 10:34:00
My post of February 23rd > read more
3/26 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-03-26 08:01:00
Still working off the sickness I had last week so this is a short and sweet video. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxR_PMWOKAs} > read more
Trading Plan for March 26, 2012
Published on 2012-03-26 07:29:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Bernanke speaks (8am), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Pending Home Sales Index (10am), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am). > read more
Flagging Retracements
Published on 2012-03-26 07:17:00
Cobra was saying at the weekend that the Dow is the leading index from a technical perspective at the moment. That may well be right. If so then the low on Friday at rising support from the October low looks particularly important, and it's obvious from the chart what will need to happen next if we are to see any more retracement this week. On a... Read more... > read more
Strength in Financials ETF vs SPX U.S. $
Published on 2012-03-13 19:16:00
Further to my post of March 9th, and as can be seen on the two Daily charts below, the Financials ETF (XLF) outperformed the SPX and the U.S. $ on Tuesday. With Tuesday's volume spike, the recent bullish Golden Cross of the 50 sma above the 200 sma, and a potential reversal of negative divergences on the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics... Read more... > read more
Bullish Action Overnight
Published on 2012-03-13 07:50:00
ES held the first support level I gave yesterday morning at the 1360 level, and has broken up through the previous high overnight, holding it as support since. That was impressively bullish, though there is some negative divergence on the 60min RSI. Looking again at the IHS on ES this morning, and how it has developed since I first posted it last... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for March 13, 2012
Published on 2012-03-13 07:23:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (7:30am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Business Inventories (10am), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:15pm) Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US Futures are moderately higher ahead of the open. Asian markets saw gains range from flat up to +1%. European markets are up on average 1% right now. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Monthly Update
Published on 2012-03-12 19:21:00
I see it's been a month since my last post, and I recall I was in quite the mood at the time. Of course, I'm still in a mood, what with the American President apologizing to other leaders for our mistakes again, more money printing, and a baby due in about a week or two. And I'm sick. But, enough whining. I've been inactive in the markets for a while now, and I'm using some of this down-time to organize my thoughts into a post. Above, I've posted my Old Faithful, the IWM on a weekly chart. M [..] > read more
What Moscow and March 12th Have in Common
Published on 2012-03-12 18:26:00
Some facts on Moscow according to Wikipedia:Moscow (/ˈmɒskaʊ/ or /ˈmɒskoʊ/; Russian: Москва́, tr. Moskva; IPA: [mɐˈskva] (listen)) is the capital, the most populous city, and the most populous federal subject of Russia. The city is a major political, economic, cultural, scientific, religious, financial, educational, and transportation... Read more... > read more
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator
Published on 2012-03-12 10:23:00
Of the last 10 weeks in the market, 9 of them have finished in positive territory - a streak we haven't seen since the September 2010 bottom. The only difference between the last time and this time is that the former was coming off of a significant sell-off & market bottom, while this one started after forming a higher-low. Not sure what to make of that, but figured it was worth mentioning. Nonetheless, this reversal signal has been very muted since it gave the green light. Let's see if the mar [..] > read more
Shaky Start Opex Week
Published on 2012-03-12 08:20:00
There were too many charts to cover in a single post today really so I split off the interesting USD/forex setup into a separate post yesterday that you can see here. As I mentioned there, short term USD is looking as though it may break up and EURUSD looks ready to break down, though it's worth noting that since then EURUSD has made a marginal... Read more... > read more
3/12 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-03-12 07:39:00
Market finally got its dip and bought up on the support we've been talking back. The only problem now is that we are getting a bit more extended on the daily chart, and running right into that 1370 resistance. Would like to see a sideways consolidation before pushing higher. Give it a chance to collect more buyers and suck up more sellers in this area. {denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDQG37yI0vM} > read more
Trading Plan for March 12, 2012
Published on 2012-03-12 07:37:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Treasury Budget (2pm) Premarket Update (Updated 8:00am eastern): US Futures are flat ahead of the employment number. Asian markets traded slightly negative. European markets are trading in mixed/flat fashion. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
US Dollar Update
Published on 2012-03-11 19:40:00
I wrote a post last weekend about GBPUSD, and mentioned at the end of that post, which you can see here, that while USD had not reached my ideal channel retracement target, it might nonetheless be starting to reverse back up to complete the giant IHS forming on it. Since then the declining resistance trendline I highlighted has broken up and... Read more... > read more
Money Flow for March Week 2
Published on 2012-03-10 11:57:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 2 of March, 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that the YM, ES & NQ all made a lower close than the prior week (with the NQ closing on slightly higher weekly volumes). The TF made a higher weekly close at a former resistance... Read more... > read more
Why the Short Put Spread on the Russell was a good idea
Published on 2012-03-10 11:15:00
Last week one of our traders decided to go short on some March RUT Put Spreads. He saw the 200 day moving average acting as good support so selling a put below that would be ideal. If memory serves, I believe we were looking at the 750/740 put spread. That is selling the 750s and buying the 740s. Luckily the selling occured on a downward move securing a premium of .68 ($68), or a 7.29% return on margin. Return on margin can be figured as the premiums divideded by spread minus the premium [..] > read more
Trades for the day
Published on 2012-03-09 20:53:00
Came into today all cash since I wasn't looking to risk to much on the jobs numbers. Started this morning adding SCEI as it looked like it was going to bounce higher. Noted the 3 day pullback to support in my watchlist video this morning. SCEI showed an ideal and clean pullback to support on low volume. This pullback took it out of overbought territory In at 2.51, out first half at 2.62 +4% and out the rest at buy in for a scratch. Took home an okay profit on this one. Was actually [..] > read more
Kirk to Scotty: What's the damage report, Mr. Scott?
Published on 2012-03-09 18:30:00
Scotty to Kirk:"Our defense shields are down after the last hit, Captain...and I don't know how long it will take to repair them...awaiting your orders, Sir..."Kirk to Scotty: "Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah...yada, yada, yada!"FAST FORWARD FROM THE 60's STAR TREK ERA TO FRIDAY'S GREEK CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP EVENT...and substitute "Kirk" wit... Read more... > read more
3/9 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-03-09 09:02:00
{denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugpmzwxR1xQ} > read more
Trading Plan for March 9, 2012
Published on 2012-03-09 08:01:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Employment Situation (8:30am), International Trade (8:30am), Wholesale Trade (10am) Premarket Update (Updated 8:00am eastern): US Futures are flat ahead of the employment number. Asian markets traded 1.4% higher. European markets were mixed/flat. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Fragile Uptrend and Greek Default
Published on 2012-03-09 07:34:00
Obviously I was very pleased that my roadmap for ES yesterday played out almost exactly. Will this continue on to my bullish IHS target? Possibly, but the uptrend looks fragile here, and ES will need to break over yesterday's high soon and confidently to confirm that bullish scenario. Strong support isn't far below, and a break below that support... Read more... > read more
3/8 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-03-08 08:53:00
This will be a make it or break it day for the bulls. If we can see some follow through on their part then we will see a perfect bounce off of support. If the bears end up taking over we will only see a dead cat bounce happen. The market is back to being oversold and has corrected ~2.5%. This should shake the fear of moving higher from everyones mind so we will see if the bulsl can step up. I am still looking for long positions in this market as we are still in an up trend (above the 5 [..] > read more
6 Stocks Gaining Momentum
Published on 2012-03-08 08:47:00
The charts below you have essentially two sets of charts: those that are pushing through resistance and beginning a new leg higher, and then you have those that are consolidating nicely below resistance and gathering the necessary buying power to push through those resistance barriers. Each of these stocks provide very favorable setups for the day, and days ahead. Here are 6 Stocks Gaining Momentum. Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for March 8, 2012
Published on 2012-03-08 07:25:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Quarterly Services Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am) Premarket Update (Updated 6:30am eastern): US Futures are bouncing this morning - up moderately. Asian markets are trading 1.6% higher. European markets are trading 1.7% higher. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Business as Usual
Published on 2012-03-08 07:22:00
Well we got the bounce I was looking for yesterday, but declining resistance from the high on ES was broken overnight, and that threw a small hand grenade into the short term bear case. Looking at EURUSD and NDX particularly, the overall damage to the short term bear case looks fatal, so the retracement this week has more than likely bottomed out,... Read more... > read more
Consumer Credit Levels Higher Than in 2007/08
Published on 2012-03-07 17:52:00
Consumer Credit Data released on Wednesday shows, firstly, a correction in the prior month's release data down to 16.3B from 19.3B, and, secondly, a rise in the latest month's data to 17.8B, as shown on the graph below (note that the graph does not show the prior month's data correctly yet).The levels of consumer debt accumulated during... Read more... > read more
15 Defensive Stock Plays
Published on 2012-03-07 15:17:00
I've put together a list of stocks - large cap ones - that have held up very well over the past year. Most of them pay a dividend, and even during the months of August-October of last year, did a great job keeping its value relatively steady. There are a few retail stores that were surprising to me in the sense that they made the list (TGT & TJX), however their charts and solid uptrend in place leads me to believe that they will also hold their own once we see a notable correction in this market [..] > read more
German Factory Orders in Negative Territory in 5 of the Last 7 Months
Published on 2012-03-07 10:49:00
Data released this morning shows that, since September 2011, German Factory Orders have been in negative territory in five of the last seven months, as shown on the graph below...confirming the contraction in Europe's fourth quarter GDP report released yesterday. As Germany is reportedly the strongest (economically) of the EU countries,... Read more... > read more
Day-Trade Watch-List
Published on 2012-03-07 09:18:00
Potential bounce heading into the open. Below I have five trades to take advantage of it should the early morning strength hold. Read more... > read more
Retracement Targets
Published on 2012-03-07 07:53:00
The first thing to say today is that there are some signals here that we may have just put in a very major top, and may now be starting a dramatic fall on equities. There is a potential double-top on SPX targeting the 770 area, a potential H&S forming on EEM that would target a similar scale of decline, a strong Dow Theory divergence that... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for March 7, 2012
Published on 2012-03-07 07:24:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), Productivity and Costs (8:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Consumer Credit (3pm) Premarket Update (Updated 6:30am eastern): US Futures are bouncing this morning - up moderately. Asian markets saw losses of about -0.7%. European markets are trading 0.3% higher. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Trading Strategy on 90% Down Days
Published on 2012-03-07 06:14:00
Yesterday was a complete sell off with 90% of the volume trading to the downside. This isn't a "rare" event but it is an unbalanced event in the market and there is the potential to make a trade based on this event. Below is a chart showing when this event has occurred over the last 9 months and the return the next day. Takin... Read more... > read more
TVIX and Why It Is Just Fine And NOT Broken
Published on 2012-03-06 21:35:00
Volatility Surges In Foreign ETFs on Tuesday's Shock Drop
Published on 2012-03-06 16:57:00
Today's gap-down "shock drop" in Foreign ETFs was accompanied by a big volatility spike in each one at levels seen in September/October 2011 during large declines in these markets, as shown on the Daily chartgrid below. Volatility is represented by the white histogram which is overlaid on price. Percentages lost on today's trading in... Read more... > read more
Europe's Revised 2011 Fourth Quarter GDP in Negative Terrrirory
Published on 2012-03-06 13:10:00
Data released today shows that Europe's Revised 2011 Fourth Quarter GDP declined into negative territory, as shown on the graph below...an area not visited since 2009. Today's figure confirms the prior Flash GDP number...will see if the Final GDP figure confirms (to be released in about 20 days).The response in European (and Global)... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for March 6, 2012
Published on 2012-03-06 07:00:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Treasury STRIPS (3pm) Premarket Update (Updated 6:30am eastern): US Futures are down strong, nearly -1% Asian markets saw losses range from -0.6% down to -2.1%. European markets are trading -1.5% lower. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
SPY Support and Trend Break
Published on 2012-03-06 05:39:00
Over the last couple of days the market has stalled at the highs of 2011 and this year highs, but SPY was able to remain above support at 137.10. Till yesterday when SPY opened below this key level and was never able to retake it. In addition to breaking below the support at 137.10, SPY also broke its intermediate uptrend which started in... Read more... > read more
Teddy Bears Picnic
Published on 2012-03-06 05:04:00
Just a short post today as I have to go out for some of the morning. Now I'm not feeling at all smug about my calls in recent weeks. This topping process has taken an age, and while SPX didn't actually get an awful lot higher after I started to think a top was close in the 1354 SPX area almost three weeks ago, the slow dribble upwards persisted... Read more... > read more
Diamond Offhsore (DO)
Published on 2012-03-06 04:43:00
Diamond Offshore3/5/12- Chart:DO continues to consolidate in a tight range between 69.30 and 67.88. It is meeting resistance from the swing close on Oct of 2011, broken support from the summer of 2010 and its downtrend from the summer of 2010. Short-term support for DO has been at the 67.80's level with DO bouncing off... Read more... > read more
Charts & Market Recap: SPX, AAPL RUT, KERX, GLD, WYNN
Published on 2012-03-05 18:02:00
Heikin Ashi Candles on YM, ES, NQ TF
Published on 2012-03-05 16:55:00
Depicted on the Daily chartgrid below of the YM, ES, NQ & TF are Heikin Ashi candles. After today's close, the only one that has begun to trend downward on this timeframe (according to the Heikin Ashi definition) is the TF (as there is no upper shadow on today's bearish red candle, which reflects strong selling). Based on this method, the... Read more... > read more
Six Swing-Trades In A Tired Market
Published on 2012-03-05 10:21:00
The biggest thing I've seen this morning is that despite a strong ISM Non-Manufacturing reading the market has essentially shrugged off the positive news. At this point, the market is beginning to remind me of that tired, cranky child, who, at the very least, needs a nap, but fights with everything it has to keep from falling asleep. The only thing is that the baby usually conks out hard suddenly and out of nowhere. With that said, today's swing-trade setups features all short setups, in order [..] > read more
Non-Manufacturing PMI Up...Factory Orders Down
Published on 2012-03-05 10:00:00
Mixed data released today shows that ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose, while Factory Orders declined, as shown on the graphs below...conflicting messages for a second month. Take your pick as to which one you like!As I write this, Dow stocks are down by about 5 to 1, S&P 500 stocks are down by almost 4 to 1, Nasdaq stocks are down by... Read more... > read more
Insurance Shell Games
Published on 2012-03-05 08:07:00
Two of the most interesting charts to watch at the moment are the charts for the Dow and TRAN indices. I posted my divergence chart on Friday morning with the short term wedges marked in, and posted the separate close-up short term charts on twitter. The Dow rising wedge is showing definite signs of breaking down and that's something to watch... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for March 5, 2012
Published on 2012-03-05 05:56:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Factory Orders (10am), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10am) Premarket Update (Updated 6:30am eastern): US Futures are down moderately. Asian markets were down -0.9% on average. European markets are trading -0.6% lower at the moment. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Happy Birthday, S P 500 Index!...March 4, 1957
Published on 2012-03-04 12:46:00
From Wikipedia...the S&P 500 Index began in its present form on March 4, 1957. "Standard & Poor's introduced its first stock index in 1923. Before 1957, its primary daily stock market index was the "S&P 90", a value-weighted index based on 90 stocks. Standard & Poor's also published a weekly index of 423 companies. The S&P 500... Read more... > read more
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator
Published on 2012-03-04 09:33:00
Another week of gains for the indices (unless you are the Russell of course) while there is a huge disconnect between the SharePlanner Reversal Indicator and the Market itself. At some point the divergence between the SPRI (including every name worthy indicator) and the broader markets is going to cause a break in one or the other. With the Russell starting to break down this week (and let me remind you, they led all the other indices on the way up), I expect it to be equities that ultimately br [..] > read more
GBPUSD , The US Dollar, and QE
Published on 2012-03-03 11:12:00
I was writing up my rather mixed view on GBPUSD today for someone, and I thought I might as well post the result for general comments so here it is. :-) Cable is complicated and the first thing to look at is the big picture chart first to show the overall context. Overall the long term setup looks bullish as you can see from the monthly chart... Read more... > read more
Money Flow for March Week 1
Published on 2012-03-02 22:16:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 1 of March, 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that the YM, ES and NQ made a higher close than the prior week on higher volumes. The ES did not close above its 2011 high of 1373.50, but made a higher closing high. The NQ... Read more... > read more
3/2 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-03-02 09:03:00
{denvideo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulkJA5gu7kg} > read more
Trading Plan for March 2, 2012
Published on 2012-03-02 08:37:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): None Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US Futures are down moderately. Asian markets saw gains of 0.8%. European markets are trading -0.3% lower at the moment. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Relatively Bearish Friday
Published on 2012-03-02 06:45:00
I was saying yesterday morning that the statistical odds were stacked against the bear side yesterday, and that the stats suggested that Wednesday's bearish engulfing candlestick on SPY was unlikely to confirm, which of course it didn't, in a day where most of the previous day's losses were regained. While Thursday has been the most bullish day of... Read more... > read more
Europe's Unemployment Rate Spiked to a New 12-Year High
Published on 2012-03-01 17:58:00
Data released this morning shows that the unemployment rate in Europe spiked to a new 12-year high, as shown on the graph below. Unemployment has been steadily rising, in spite of LTRO 1...we'll see if LTRO 2 makes any difference in due course...although, I very much doubt that it has any relevance or useful purpose in solving this... Read more... > read more
Swing-Trade Setups for the Afternoon
Published on 2012-03-01 13:24:00
LONG: Exco Resources (XCO) Read more... > read more
Negative Divergences on CAT
Published on 2012-03-01 11:24:00
Below is a Daily chart of CAT. Price made a new all-time high on February 24th. There are negative divergences on the MACD, Stochastics, and RSI indicators, volumes are declining, and Bollinger Bands are tightening.One to watch, in particular, as related to emerging markets and BRIC countries, which are also trading under similar constraints at... Read more... > read more
Manufacturing PMI Down...Manufacturing Prices Up...Construction Spending Down
Published on 2012-03-01 10:29:00
Data released today shows that:manufacturing PMI (the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories) has declinedmanufacturing prices (the relative level of prices paid for goods and services) has increasedconstruction spending (the total amount that builders... Read more... > read more
Prices Up...Personal Income Down...Personal Spending Up
Published on 2012-03-01 09:55:00
Data released this morning shows that:the price of goods and services (excluding food and energy) has increasedpersonal income has declinedpersonal spending has increasedas shown on the three graphs below.This latest data confirms that the debt load of consumers is increasing, while their income decreases...resulting in a two-fold increase in... Read more... > read more
3/1 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-03-01 08:57:00
Remember that one day doesn't make a trend. Bulls are still in control until the bears see some follow through on there selling. Not looking to load up on shorts at this point, but rather ease up on my long positions. These key resistance points get very tricky as there are a lot of sellers above the line and a lot of buyers below the line. Bulls have been on a huge run so there is no reason they want to stop now. They just have to make it through the levels of sellers that are at this [..] > read more
Trading Plan for March 1, 2012
Published on 2012-03-01 08:13:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), ISM Manufacturing Index (10am), Construction Spending (10am), Bernanke speaks (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US Futures are slightly up after recovering from overnight losses since the European open. Asian markets saw losses range from -0.2% down to -1.4%. European markets are trading abo [..] > read more
A Promising Start
Published on 2012-03-01 07:29:00
Yesterday's bearish engulfing candlestick was on SPY daily chart was a refreshing change of pace. SPY gives a much more accurate picture of opening and closing positions than SPX due to data feed issues at Stockcharts and most other places. No idea why that should be but I've corresponded with Stockcharts about it and they tell me there's nothing... Read more... > read more
SPY Review/Sell Signal
Published on 2012-03-01 06:39:00
SPY reached another new 52 week high yesterday before climbing back down, yet SPY has only been able to stay above the 2010 high once so far. This shows a little weakness at the 137.77 level. But SPY has been able to maintain its strong uptrend and remain above support. SPY touched the trendline 3 times in the last week showing... Read more... > read more
Big Drop in Aussie Private Capital Expenditure
Published on 2012-02-29 22:58:00
Data released Wednesday evening shows a big drop (into negative territory) in Private Capital Expenditure in Australia, as shown on the graph below. Since it's a "leading indicator of economic health," it's one worth monitoring over the next months/quarter.At the moment, the AUS/USD forex pair is trading in a range in between major price... Read more... > read more
A Few Stocks That Only Go Up
Published on 2012-02-29 15:22:00
With this market most stocks have only gone straight up over the past two months, but below I've put together a list of stocks who are shining brighter than all the others. And No - I did not include Apple (AAPL) - that goes without saying, and the trade is so crowded and parabolic, you just know the carpet is going to be pulled out from underneath them. The stocks below though (AKRX, MCD, DLTR and CMG) become a much better buy if we can get a market pullback of any kind and then buy the dips o [..] > read more
Trade Setup: Renren (RENN)
Published on 2012-02-29 11:36:00
Here's the nitty-gritty on the stock: Textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern in place but not yet confirmed (Pending Bullish) Consolidation over the last month, that could accumulate enough buying power to push the IH&S pattern (Bullish) Nice support at the 10 & 20 day moving averages (Bullish) Trend-line support holding off of the January Lows (Bullish) Move below $5.04 would break key support (Bearish) Previous move up was met with significant volume. Pullback has been on light volume ( [..] > read more
Effects of ECB LTRO 2 on EUFN and EUR/USD
Published on 2012-02-29 11:02:00
The ECB made available $530B in loans to EU banks today in order to provide liquidity to banks...known as LTRO 2. $498B in loans (LTRO 1) was made on December 21, 2011.The reaction, so far today, on the European Financials ETF (EUFN) has been negative, as shown on the Daily chart below. Price has been trading in a range just below major... Read more... > read more
Leap Year Watch-List
Published on 2012-02-29 09:38:00
In lieu of my daily trading plan, here are my day-trades to watch for today: GPL, PEIX, JMBA, DATE, YOKU Read more... > read more
Silver Breaks Up
Published on 2012-02-29 07:08:00
Yet another boring day on equities yesterday with a spike down, low in the first hour and then a grind up for the rest of the day. What were the odds of that? My broken support trendline on SPX from the Dec 19th low crossed the resistance trendline yesterday so I'll now disregard it. Strong rising resistance in the 1378/9 SPX area today: NQ looks... Read more... > read more
What Do The Complacency Odds Say?
Published on 2012-02-28 16:14:00
The 5-Year Weekly chart below shows a comparison of the S&P 500 Index to the VIX. We can see what can happen when price has traded around the levels at which they are currently situated. On each of the past four years, price has spiked rather quickly from these levels by large percentages on the VIX, sending the S&P 500 plunging.T... Read more... > read more
The Grass is Always Greener... ;-)
Published on 2012-02-28 12:37:00
... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for February 28, 2012
Published on 2012-02-28 09:08:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Durable Goods Orders (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9am), Consumer Confidence (10am), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am) Premarket Update (Updated 8:30am eastern): US Futures are slightly higher heading into the open. Asian markets traded between +0.4% and 1.7% higher. European markets are trading about +0.3% higher. Technical Outlook (S&P [..] > read more
Home Price Index Continues its Decline
Published on 2012-02-28 08:40:00
Data released this morning shows that the selling price of homes continues to decline, as shown on the graph below. Since it's a "leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity," this only adds fuel to the unfolding story of slowing demand/growth in 2012.Today's... Read more... > read more
Durable Core Durable Goods Orders Drop to 2009 Levels
Published on 2012-02-28 08:12:00
Data released this morning shows that Durable and Core Durable Goods Orders dropped considerably...down to 2009 levels, as shown on the graphs below. Ones to watch for possible continuing weakness as a confirmation of slowing global growth in 2012. In the short term, this may take some of the steam out of the current equity market rally, as... Read more... > read more
Dow Theory Divergences
Published on 2012-02-28 07:25:00
The dip buyers had yet another great day yesterday as the large opening gap down was swiftly converted into a new high on SPX since the March 2009 low. That new high isn't a break with confidence of very strong 1370 area resistance yet, but if it does break with confidence then that opens up targets in the 1400 to 1440 area as you can see on the... Read more... > read more
Emerging Markets ETF versus BRIC Countries
Published on 2012-02-27 18:37:00
Below are a series of 2-Year Daily charts. I'll be comparing the current levels of the Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) with those of the BRIC countries for the purpose of determining relative strength of each.The first chart is of the EEM. Price is currently in a trading range just below major resistance established in the first half of 2011 and just... Read more... > read more
TF is the Weak Cousin to the YM, ES NQ
Published on 2012-02-27 17:00:00
Further to my post of February 11th, the YM, ES & NQ have advanced above the minor support levels that they had formed just before the latest unemployment data was released during pre-market hours on February 3rd. These e-mini futures indices rallied strongly (on high volumes normally seen during market hours, not during the pre-market... Read more... > read more
Breakout or Down: Here's Your Swing-Trades
Published on 2012-02-27 12:31:00
We open lower this morning, the bulls jump in dramatic fashion and pushes the market higher and higher...and higher, then it settles during the lunch hour and trades sideways. Now the question becomes, as we go into this afternoon, whether we rip higher like we saw last Thursday. I'm thinking we do, because that is the precedent that has been established at this point. Below are four trades: 2 long/2 short that will allow you to take advantage of this market depending on whether it breaks up/do [..] > read more
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator
Published on 2012-02-27 09:01:00
Bearish divergences exist across the board with Friday's S&P making new highs, but indicators like the RSI, Worden T2108, and a myriad of others are pushing lower. Today we had weakness early on, but now the market appears to be holding on quite well at this point while making new recovery highs on the S&P. Also, notice the bearish wedge forming on the S&P weekly chart. More than 70% of the time (generally speaking), they break to the downside. For those of you who are not familiar with the Sh [..] > read more
Trendline Setups
Published on 2012-02-27 07:38:00
I've been hearing a lot of talk over the last two weeks about how it's bad to call tops or bottoms, and that the SPX may get to the moon before we see a meaningful reversal. That's a view certainly, but there are a couple of points to make about that view. The first is that buying low and selling high is about not blindly buying trends. When... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for February 27, 2012
Published on 2012-02-27 05:53:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Pending Home Sales Index (10am), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am) Premarket Update (Updated 7:00am eastern): US Futures are moderately lower heading into the open. Asian markets traded mixed with Hang Seng trading -0.9% lower. European markets are trading about -1.0% lower. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Money Flow for February Week 4
Published on 2012-02-24 19:17:00
First of all, I apologize for the length of my post, but I have plenty to say...I appreciate you allowing me my indulgence and intrusion into your time.Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 4 of February, 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that the YM, ES and NQ made a... Read more... > read more
Oil Musings
Published on 2012-02-24 05:40:00
Another day with no significant reversal on equities, and though upside progress in the last two weeks has been very limited on SPX, it is still crawling up the strong resistance trendline I have on the SPX 60min chart. SPX is now trading under the support trendline from the Dec 19th low and is showing increasing negative divergence on the daily... Read more... > read more
Brent Crude versus WTI Light Crude Oil
Published on 2012-02-23 19:22:00
Brent Crude Oil closed today at 123.62, as shown on the Daily chart below.WTI Light Crude Oil closed today at 108.54, as shown on the Daily chart below.The Daily comparison chart of Brent to WTI Oil below shows that Brent has been declining against WTI since early in February of this year.The percentage comparison chart of Brent to WTI Oil below... Read more... > read more
Brent Crude versus WTI Light Crude Oil
Published on 2012-02-23 19:22:00
Brent Crude Oil closed today at 123.62, as shown on the Daily chart below.WTI Light Crude Oil closed today at 108.54, as shown on the Daily chart below.The Daily comparison chart of Brent to WTI Oil below shows that Brent has been declining against WTI since early in February of this year.The percentage comparison chart of Brent to WTI Oil below... Read more... > read more
Swing Trades for QIHU, YGE, AAU & ABC
Published on 2012-02-23 12:28:00
Just by the dip.... that's really all that you really need to know for the past 2 months and counting. Ultimately it leads to complacency and then a lot of people, who thought the strategy would work forever, getting burned pretty darn good. Because when the market starts to drop (and trust me, it always does...eventually) people insist on buying the dip all the way down. But at this point, there are no worries, because the strategy has yet to fail even once really in 2012. I mean c'mon! we hav [..] > read more
Existing Home Sales and Home Prices Decline
Published on 2012-02-23 10:21:00
Data released yesterday and today shows a decline in Existing Home Sales and in the Purchase Price of Homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as shown on the graphs below.Perhaps home buyers are waiting for prices to bottom and become more in line with the low (2009) level of home sales.... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for February 23, 2012
Published on 2012-02-23 08:08:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), FHFA House Price Index (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (11am), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11am), Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US Futures are slightly higher heading into the open. Asian markets traded mixed ranging from -0.8% up to +0.5% European markets are trading flat and in mixed fashion. Technical Outlook (S&P) [..] > read more
The Acid Test for Gold and Silver
Published on 2012-02-23 06:44:00
The SPX support trendline broke down yesterday, and the short term high could be in, though I'd like to see a move below 1350 SPX for more confirmation that this seemingly endless up move has finally peaked. Trendline resistance still looks very solid and should be in the 1370 area today. The 2011 high was at 1370.56, and a test at that... Read more... > read more
XLF breaks short-term support
Published on 2012-02-23 06:21:00
XLF and financials were were down more then the overall market yesterday as selling picked up in this sector. On Tuesday this post mentioned to watch XLF because financial stocks lead this market and with yesterday's move it could be signalling some selling is coming. Broken Support: XLF had not followed the market in climbing... Read more... > read more
SPY and its Dojis
Published on 2012-02-23 06:03:00
SPY and It's Dojis: The markets chopped around yesterday as the robots search desperately for news that will move this market. SPY remains perched new its highs sitting slightly on short-term support. The three doji candles starting on Friday show a market that is wary of moving higher and indecisive. In addition sellers... Read more... > read more
DDR Corp (DDR)
Published on 2012-02-22 18:45:00
DDR: DDR has been in a short-term down trend since it hit a high of 14.63 on February 3rd. Over the last week DDR has been in a tight range between 14.16 and 13.80. There is significant selling pressure at the 14.16 level and weak buying at the 13.80 level, before today 13.86 was a stronger support level and this broke today.... Read more... > read more
14 Stocks Starting To Break Down
Published on 2012-02-22 15:30:00
The stocks below are showing signs of, or already in the process of, breaking down as the smart money appears to be leaving them in a subtle manner. There are stocks trading at its peak and finally showing some vulnerability, while on the other extreme, there are stocks that have been in a channel near or at their lows, before finally breaking down below those lows. I really like the stocks listed below (hand picked from over a 100 or so on the stock screen I used). The two that I would put at t [..] > read more
Market Recap & AAPL, GLD, USO
Published on 2012-02-21 17:57:00
Fairly quiet day in the market today, nonetheless, it's probably a disappointment for most bulls that we didn't blow through that 1370 level today as they had hoped for. For the bears, anything in the red, at this point, will do. Here's my market wrap up video, featuring Apple (AAPL), Oil (USO) and Gold (GLD). Read more... > read more
XLF Not Particpating
Published on 2012-02-21 17:01:00
Today SPY and the other indices high new highs for the year and hit the highs from 2011. While this was occurring the "most important sector" to the entire universe just barely made a new high and closed down today. This is important because since 2007 what the financials do the market does later. XLF was not able to get a boost from... Read more... > read more
Touching Tops
Published on 2012-02-21 15:22:00
The market appears to finally hit some resistance after rallying non-stop since the beginning of the year. SPY has now hit the highs from 2011 right before the U.S debt down grade. The market rallied today after the Greek bailout announcement only to meet strong resistance right at the 137.10 level. Touching the lows from... Read more... > read more
Four Rumored Swing Trade Setups
Published on 2012-02-21 12:12:00
The news today, beyond the faulty assumption that Greece banks is once and for all saved, and we no longer have to fret about their future, the other piece of news is Dow crossing 13,000, which defintely holds some psychological importance for the market - careful it could also be that level where the sell programs kick in - who knows. With the market continuing to march up, and everything else beyond price action pleading for a sell-off, I present you another assortment of long and short setup [..] > read more
Trading Plan for February 21, 2012
Published on 2012-02-21 08:47:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am) Premarket Update (Updated 9:00am eastern): US Futures are slightly green heading into the open. Asian markets were mixed in trading. European markets are trading lower by about -0.5%. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Vix Buy Signal Confirmed
Published on 2012-02-21 07:36:00
I was saying on Friday morning that a lower close on Vix that day would confirm a Vix Buy (equities) Signal, and also a bearish engulfing candlestick on the Vix daily chart. Vix confirmed both on Friday and that very much needs to be borne in mind as a strong warning signal here for equity bears. The situation is more complex than that of course,... Read more... > read more
Japan's Trade Balance at 12-Year Low
Published on 2012-02-20 13:48:00
Data released on February 19th shows another monthly drop in Japan's Trade Balance. As shown on the graph below, it's at a twelve-year low and shows no signs of reversal, although the "actual" figures were slightly better than those "forecast."Further to my post of February 9th, Japan's Nikkei Futures Index has continued to rally (on... Read more... > read more
On This Day...February 20th...
Published on 2012-02-20 10:21:00
On this day...From the United Nations:The General Assembly proclaimed 20 February as World Day of Social Justice in 2007, inviting Member States to devote the day to promoting national activities in accordance with the objectives and goals of the World Summit for Social Development and the twenty-fourth session of the General Assembly.... Read more... > read more
Something To Ponder While The Market Is Closed
Published on 2012-02-20 10:05:00
I came across a Flash-Crash video on YouTube, and of course I couldn't help but watch it - (it's chicken-soup for the bear soul). In lieu of today's "Important" Greece "Agreement", I thought I'd post this video, not so much for the sake of watching the flash-crash unfold (though it never gets old), but to see what was at the forefront of that day (HINT: Starts with a "Gr" and ends with "eece"). I mean "C'MON MAN!" its been more than 2 years we've been dealing with this and how many agreements [..] > read more
SharePlanner Reversal Indicator
Published on 2012-02-19 14:51:00
How much more can we expect from news in Greece to continue juicing this market? Some will say that it's not all about Greece - it's about earnings too. Wrong! Take out Apple (AAPL) and earnings season was quite dismal to say the least. I will say though that AAPL has helped the markets aside from Greece, particularly the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100. In all honestly, I'm just trying to get through this post without using the words P*r*b*l*c and T*P since it seems like you can find a million other [..] > read more
Money Flow for February Week 3
Published on 2012-02-18 13:14:00
Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 3 of February, 2012.The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that all four made a higher weekly high than the prior week, but the TF was the only one that didn't make a higher weekly close, so far, in February. The NQ has reached a confluence... Read more... > read more
Moneyball Investing
Published on 2012-02-17 18:34:00
Last week I wrote a short piece describing the Moneyball Approach to investing. In trading, traders can get carried away with the glitz and glamour of day and swing trading. The flip side of that coin is slow consistent investing, and that is what we focus on at Adam’s Options Income Newsletter. No, we do not make the headlines by taking credit plays on options. No, we are not going to hit those magical 10-20% plays you see in day trading.What are we going to do? Make money! Last [..] > read more
Mid-Day Swing-Trade Setups
Published on 2012-02-17 12:27:00
Since the open we've seen selling pressure come across the market, and logically speaking, I'd expect it to continue through the day with it being a 3-day weekend (markets closed on Monday for President's day) and a very important meeting (yes another one of those) on Monday while the markets are closed concerning the bailout agreement. The bulls have banked a lot of profit at this point, and it would seem silly to risk it over this weekend. But hey....what do I know!?! LONG: L-3 Communications [..] > read more
Trading Plan for February 17, 2012
Published on 2012-02-17 08:31:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Leading Indicators (10am) Premarket Update (Updated 6:30am eastern): US Futures are slightly green heading into the open. Asian markets closed 1.3% higher. European markets are trading 0.5% up to 1.4% higher. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more
Groundhog Day
Published on 2012-02-17 06:32:00
I did mention yesterday morning that Wednesday's trendline break didn't preclude a new high and obviously I was glad I did, even if that seemed a bit wishy-washy. I've watched that film before, though I was surprised to see a new high made so fast yesterday. That leaves us pretty much where we were on Wednesday morning, with the trendline break in... Read more... > read more
2/17 Video Watchlist
Published on 2012-02-16 22:21:00
Hope everyone had a good day in the markets today. Market pushed higher getting us out of that recent consolidation. Still coming up quick on the 1370 resistance so be careful trying to swing trade into that. The name of the game right now is day trading with a couple of swings on good setups. Don't try to step in front of this bus and get short. This is a bull run with all dips getting bought so there is no reason to get heavy short. It is better to get stopped out of your positions [..] > read more
A Percentage Comparison of the Major Indices
Published on 2012-02-16 17:52:00
In total, from the October 2011 lows, the Russell 2000 Index has led the Dow 30, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices higher in terms of percentages gained to date, as shown on the percentage comparison chart below.The next chart shows percentages gained since the November dip/lows. The Nasdaq 100 started to gain momentum... Read more... > read more
8 Stocks The Street is Buying
Published on 2012-02-16 13:24:00
By far one of my best screens in determining who is buying what on the street! What you will find are those stocks that, among other variables that I use, 1) Gaining an increased amount of coverage by brokerage firms and analysts, and 2) Being upgraded on a regular basis. This is a good screen to show you where the smart money is putting their capital to work at, without you having to actually ask them. One of the stocks that caught my attention, Peabody Energy (BTU) - listed below - has actuall [..] > read more
Day-Trading Watch-List
Published on 2012-02-16 08:38:00
LONG: Samson Oil & Gas (SSN) Read more... > read more
Rolling Over
Published on 2012-02-16 07:08:00
I was saying yesterday morning that a pinocchio through trendline support was generally soon followed by a more definite break, and we then saw that hourly close below rising support from the December 19th low that I was looking for:That isn't enough to preclude a new high, but it is a strong indication that the short term high is in, and initial... Read more... > read more
Trading Plan for February 16, 2012
Published on 2012-02-16 06:04:00
Economic Reports Due out (Times are EST): Housing Starts (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Producer Price Index (8:30am), Bernanke Speaks (9am), Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (9:45am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am) Premarket Update (Updated 6:30am eastern): US Futures are seeing moderate weakness ahead of the bell. Asian markets closed -0.3% lower. European markets are trading down about -1%. Technical Outlook (S&P): Read more... > read more