Fun on the ASX

The Alinta mess

Published on 2007-03-30 23:40:00

How patronising...shareholders don't know what's good for them and can't be relied upon to take the money and run. That's the message from the Alinta Board in rejecting Macquarie's bid. It's absolute rubbish. Seriously, if shareholders can't be bothered taking an interest in their investment it's their problem, go and buy managed funds.I'm quite happy to take the cash and bolt for the exit, I've

Weird trading in Super Cheap Auto

Published on 2007-03-29 14:44:00

Since I purchased shares in Super Cheap Auto mid way through last year the company has had a great run, doubling in price in a short space of time. But during this run I've noticed some strange trading patterns: small parcels of stock traded, often on an up-tick. There's been plenty of occasions where the shares have traded up strongly against the trend but on quite low volume.I think the first

Will the last Alinta bidder please turn out the lights?

Published on 2007-03-22 04:55:00

So Bob Browning's jetting off to Mobile, Alabama to mess about with boats and Leighton's allegedly not playing. This should put Macquarie in a good position, assuming they can figure out a package that can be sold to co-investors (read patsies) as not being too greedy.Alinta's shares have fallen off a bit back to $14 or so, so presumably all that talk of a 'killer' bid a couple of weeks ago - the

Rates up once? anyone for twice?

Published on 2007-03-22 04:25:00

Well we're nearly back to 6000 courtesy of a 1.5% gain on Wall St which in turn was in response to Fed comments that seem to indicate the tightening bias might be over. In turn US rate cuts could be on the agenda...I don't think they'll get back to 1% again but one or two moves might be in order.Meanwhile Australia could be going in the reverse direction. The normally staid interest rate markets

Shared equity open for business

Published on 2007-03-13 19:26:00

Also yesterday we saw the release of another shared-equity style home loan product. This one is offered by the Macquarie-backed Rismark via Adelaide Bank. From an investment perspective I like these ideas because I think they have the potential to open up a new frontier (how exciting!). St George and Australand also announced a variation that splits the mortgage between two titles. I have never

More small cap action

Published on 2007-03-13 19:25:00

Yesterday I took advantage (I hope) of weak pricing for one of my favourite small caps and bought some more. So far so good: no sign of any buyer’s remorse although at the time of writing the market hasn’t opened and I see the SPIs are down 90pts after more excitement overseas. I may be singing a different tune this afternoon! The fundamentals of this particular company are excellent and my

Time for an update

Published on 2007-03-09 20:23:00

Thought it was time for an update to some of the issues that have been kicked around over the past couple of months.Let’s start with Qantas. As expected, the Federal Government has given the seal of approval to the takeover of Qantas by the private equity consortium. Despite this the prospect of two institutional shareholders refusing to accept means that the bid still isn’t seen as a certainty,

Just a pitstop on the road to prosperity?

Published on 2007-03-01 19:24:00

Rather than simply repeat what’s happened this week, I’d prefer to try and figure out if it actually means anything or whether it’s just another pitstop on the road to prosperity.Personally I don’t buy the broker-spin peddled in some news outlets about it being a “healthy correction”. I think it’s a warning sign that things in the ‘hood aren’t going to quieten down in a hurry. After all,

Five ways to invest overseas

Published on 2007-02-24 23:29:00

Regular readers will know that right now I’m a big fan of diversifying away from Australia into overseas markets. In my quest to promote this idea I decided to find five ways you can get offshore without learning French or catching the dreaded Delhi belly. Managed funds – No kidding you say, but what sort? I think a good active manager should be able to pick which international markets are on the

Diary of a CFD trader: 5 days in the life

Published on 2007-02-19 03:31:00

Or: how I went short in a rampant bull market and survived (just!)Back in April/May 2006 I felt the rally was becoming overdone. I originally began shorting the market using index warrants with some success but then constant Weekend AFR Smart Money articles convinced me to open a CFD account and try using contracts over the ASX 200 instead. It was to be my first experience with the now ubiquitous

Strategy & outlook

Published on 2007-02-16 03:15:00

Amongst the lively prose in this week’s RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy were some useful figures on equity market valuation and the outlook for share market drivers.PE ratios and yields seem to be around about long term average levels. Our PE ratios are consistent with the rest of the world but yields measurably higher; likely a reflection of our dividend imputation system. According

Building a better investor

Published on 2007-02-13 15:47:00

It’s tempting to look back on the good performers in a portfolio and wonder why you didn’t buy more. I rationalise that thought with the knowledge that if I had bought more of XYZ Ltd I wouldn’t have had enough resources to buy other companies which may have delivered similar or better results. But it raises an interesting issue. When should you add to an existing position? I recall a

Qantas rolls over

Published on 2007-02-12 04:48:00

Updating my earlier post on the Qantas bid, aside from anything else I just hope management don’t trip over themselves or any stray Alinta executives in their rush to take the company private! The independent expert’s report values the airline anywhere from $5.18 to $5.98 thereby conveniently placing the midpoint 2 cents under the $5.60 bid price. Good work, Grant Samuel & Board. A bit of a wider

One for the watchlist

Published on 2007-02-11 21:05:00

I like the concept of investing along a theme. It’s not new, but the strategy involves picking a trend then trying to spot companies exposed to the idea. You can often find a number of businesses in a particular market segment so either pick the best or spread your risk and buy everything. Two themes I’ve used successfully include agriculture – a contrarian play as the sector was then, as now, in

Qantas bid price versus market

Published on 2007-02-05 15:02:00

Investors betting that the Qantas deal will go ahead might be a bit more cautious this week following the bidders’ announcement they will voluntarily seek Government approval. Since the bid was announced Qantas has traded at around a 5% discount to the $5.60 offer price. This discount mostly reflects the time value of money – buy the stock now at $5.37 or thereabouts and receive your money after

Portfolio management in spreadsheets

Published on 2007-02-03 17:30:00

Following the post on portfolio construction I received a question from someone about how to setup a worksheet to obtain ‘real time’ values for shares and managed funds.It’s quite straight forward as it’s a standard function in Excel. What you need to do is go to the Data menu in Excel and choose Import External Data, then New Web QueryIn the box that appears navigate your way to whatever website

Why I sold one of my small cap stocks this week

Published on 2007-02-02 23:55:00

This week I sold out of one of my small cap stocks, a small Australian manufacturer. I bought into them in December 2005, attracted by strong dividends – a yield of 10%, fully franked – that were fairly well covered by earnings, and my assessment the shares were worth perhaps 95 cents instead of the 76 cents I paid. This assessment was made using an EBIT multiple relative to similar companies. In

Economists bring back the biff

Published on 2007-02-01 02:03:00

Economists aren’t the sort of people you’d have at the top of your dinner party invite list. Sure, JM Keynes might entertain your guests with wit and wisdom while Stephen Levitt – of Freakonomics fame – could astound and confront them with his work on society but on the whole it’s not the most exciting of professions…or so I thought until I read an article in today’s paper. Under the

Building a portfolio from scratch

Published on 2007-01-27 17:44:00

In late 2003 and early 2004 as the market emerged from a period of malaise I began to get more serious about putting together a reasonable investment portfolio. I really wanted to get some scale and some structure rather than the fairly rag-tag random bunch of stocks and cash holdings I held. I also was – and remain – primarily interested in shares rather than bonds or property. This is

BHP - what's it worth?

Published on 2007-01-22 16:47:00

Reading through the plethora of picks for 2007’s top performers, or favoured stocks by brokers in the paper each week, one company seems to be this season’s must have and that’s BHP Looking up BHP I’ve found that of 15 brokers submitting their estimates to Thomson Financial, 6 have it as a ‘strong buy’, 7 as a ‘moderate buy’ and 2 say ‘hold’. The median EPS forecast for 2007 is 286.3