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FB
Published on 2012-05-25 13:30:00
Bought some Facebook today. If anyone is interested. > read more
HEY! Facebook!
Published on 2012-05-17 19:00:00
Welcome to 1995. Haters are gonna hate. I'm gonna buy Facebook.1 -- Investor risk preferences. With interest rates at 0 forever, prices will escalate. Stocks are super cheap (14x multiple?). It follows that speculative money will flow to stocks. > read more
Rick's Cabaret
Published on 2012-05-11 12:47:00
The only publicly traded strip club that I know of, Rick's Cabaret, had its annual shareholder's meeting last night. See > read more
Sell in May and Go Away
Published on 2012-04-05 10:50:00
USA Today had an article two days ago about the > read more
Mega Millions Lottery +EV
Published on 2012-03-28 11:58:00
Not sure how often this happens with state-run lottos, but playing the Mega Millions Lottery for this week's drawing has positive expected value. > read more
My Father on Central Banking
Published on 2012-03-15 12:44:00
On the FED's loose monetary policy vs medieval standards: "It was better when they (governments) used to borrow money from the Jews and then just kill them." No more debt. Sardonic. > read more
I really like this article
Published on 2012-02-27 14:30:00
If it fails in testing, dont go live. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_inventors_killed_by_their_own_inventions > read more
More Magic
Published on 2012-02-13 19:26:00
No process, all magic:Long US EquitiesShort EuroExit, pursued by a bear (terrifying)3-Bet c-bet (there is some math here, inappropriate)Also, overbetting the river crushes a lot of stakesShort SantorumLong Facebook / Short dead money. Please message me if you would like to be my counter-party.A lot of people are talking about the gold standard. I want to start talking about the hot-tub standard.I do not have many kind words for Angela Merkel (but she can get in the tub)Long large capLet the riot [..] > read more
A Good Approach to Fiscal Policy
Published on 2012-01-16 18:32:00
consume. > read more
Valuing the Halal Guys
Published on 2011-12-14 17:51:00
Anyone who has been to the Halal Guys stand on 53rd street and 6th avenue knows why I am writing this article. There are hundreds of food carts in NYC, but only one that serves halal (others are proprietors of inferior lamb and rice). As per Halal Guys’ slogan: “we are different.”Get involved with the sauceFor those of you who have not been there, the Halal Guys is good enough to kill for (see 2006 stabbing incident ). It boasts long lines at all times of day. And the food is well worth t [..] > read more
Thomas Friedman: "How About Better Parents?"
Published on 2011-11-21 09:32:00
I had no idea that better parents led to better students. How insightful. Thomas Friedman, how about better columnists? > read more
The Derivative of Hogs: the Real McRib Arbitrage
Published on 2011-11-10 17:54:00
Willy Staley of theawl wrote an article this week title "A Conspiracy of Hogs: The McRib as Arbitrage." He points out the correlation between McDonald's introduction of the McRib and pork prices. According to the Pork Cycle, supply and price of livestock is cyclical as changes in demand cannot easily be met due to gestation and breeding.Key: 1. November 2005 Farewell Tour; 2. November 2006 Farewell Tour II; 3. Late October 2007 Farewell Tour III; 4. October 2008 Reintroduction; 5. November 2010 [..] > read more
Equity Markets, France and European Contagion
Published on 2011-11-09 19:09:00
Headlines from yesterday, how the media views the recent equity rally (11/09/2011): “GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro, stocks up on hopes Italy may avoid crisis” “Stocks pop on Berlusconi's pending resignation” It has been the same story since September: equity markets trade up on confidence that Europe will resolve its debt crisis quickly. But bond markets haven’t waivered. Sovereign debt has continued its decline despite Berlusconi’s resignation, Greece’s bailout package, and other posi [..] > read more
Short Linkedin (NYSE:LNKD), Get Involved
Published on 2011-11-08 08:57:00
There are a lot of reasons to be short Linkedin Corporation (NYSE:LNKD). Let’s start with the big picture. LNKD has a market cap of 7.72B, annual 2010 revenue of $243.1 million and net income of $15.38 million. That comes to a price of 1828.92x earnings as of yesterday’s close. Assuming 100% revenue growth year over year for the next five years, with similar margins to the previous fiscal year:year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014revenue 243.1 486.2 972.4 [..] > read more
Guilt Alleviation
Published on 2011-11-07 19:25:00
I went to Fairway today. And everything is labeled as "artisan." What the fuck is that about? > read more
Short Fear, Long Japan (INDEX:Nikkei 225)
Published on 2011-03-21 21:33:00
In an article titled Creative Destruction (as per Schumpeter), James Surowiecki makes a compelling argument against the recent plunge of the Nikkei 25:"Yet, while the fear is understandable, this [the recent price move in Japanese Equities] may turn > read more
The Crack Spread and Oil Refiners (FTO,SUN,TSO,VLO,WNR)
Published on 2011-02-07 22:50:00
Since my recomendation to buy oil refiners on November 10th, here is how the four companies that I mentioned have performed:Frontier Oil Corporation(NYSE:FTO)Up 54.02%Sunoco Inc (NYSE:SUN)Up 10.18%Tesoro Corporation (NYSE:TSO)Up 48.91%Western Refinin > read more
American Apparel Inc. (AMEX:APP) Down 22.48% on Heavy Volume
Published on 2011-01-24 22:44:00
American Apparel (AMEX:APP) was down big today, hitting a low of 98 cents before rallying slightly to close at $1.00. This move comes on no substantial news and with extremely heavy volume (6.21 million shares traded hand versus an average of 450k). > read more
Sonic Corporation (NASDAQ:SONC) Earnings Report
Published on 2011-01-06 10:59:00
Sonic Corporation (NASDAQ:SONC) rose 11.98% yesterday as their earnings and revenue both exceed analyst estimates (revenue of 129.15 million and earnings of $7.24 million or $0.12 per share). The price of Sonic's equity has seen a 21.61% increase sin > read more
Happy New Year (BG,CHK,JOE,MTLQQ,SONC,RIG,VLO)
Published on 2011-01-02 15:58:00
Predictions have faired well since this blog's inception in September. Below are my currently open positions:LONG Bunge Limited (NYSE:BG) Up 12.79%LONG Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) Up 17.99%SHORT Motors Liquidation Company (PINK:MTLQQ): U > read more
St. Joe Company Buyout Rumors a Short Opportunity (NYSE:JOE)
Published on 2010-12-15 22:08:00
The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE), up 9.04%, was one of the best performing equities on the NYSE today. The rally, based on buyout speculation, took off just after 1:24 pm when 1.77 million shares traded hands within a two minute period (compared to St. > read more
American Apparel (AMEX:APP) Up 9.37% on Heavy Trading and No News
Published on 2010-12-10 21:00:00
American Apparel (AMEX: APP) was up 9.37% with 2.87 million shares trading hand compared to the average volume of 756,846 shares. This move included a price jump from $1.58 to as high as $1.90 within fifteen minutes starting at 10:40am. AAP has conti > read more
December Trade Update (BG,CHK,MTLQQ,SONC,RIG,VLO)
Published on 2010-12-05 10:32:00
Trade updated. We have had some great performance over this past month as the S&P 500 traded sideways, only up 54bp:LONG Bunge Limited (NYSE:BG) Up 10.07%LONG Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) Up 0.91%SHORT Motors Liquidation Company (PINK:MTL > read more
Robert Shiller: U.S. Government Should Borrow More
Published on 2010-11-19 18:29:00
Robert Shiller (ranked the 66th most influential economist in the world here) said today that debt is so cheap that the U.S. should be borrowing more. This statement comes in stark contrast to conservative politicians who view government spending and > read more
Refining Bull Market as U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter (FTO,SUN,TSO,VLO,WNR)
Published on 2010-11-10 21:16:00
A combination of factors including a weak dollar, the domestic inventory surplus, and improving economic conditions overseas may lead the United States to become a net exporter of oil. This is a bullish sign for oil refiners as demand for their finis > read more
Sonic Corporation (NASDAQ:SONC) Northeast Driven Turnaround
Published on 2010-11-08 20:35:00
My father always said never buy a restaurant stock, "don't buy a company whose inventory rots." I am going to make an exception for Sonic Corporation (and with only $3.67 million in inventory, there is not a lot of food value at risk). As a fast food > read more
November Trade Update (BG,CHK,MTLQQ,RIG,VLO)
Published on 2010-11-01 22:15:00
Since it is the start of November, here is an update on how all open trades have performed to date:LONG Bunge Limited (NYSE:BG) Up 4.86%LONG Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) Down 5.05%SHORT Motors Liquidation Company (PINK:MTLQQ): Up 28.8%LON > read more