Blog Feed: CER Trader Vox Blog

China's GDP came in at 8.1, Analysts were looking for 8.5 or higher. End result? Dow currently down 105, S&P currently down 11 handles. Not a bad way to end the week. I hope you had a short position. It's 1:30 pm and I am heading home for the weekend. Beans, Corn and Wheat all took it on the chin today. corn down 10, beans down 5, wheat down 16. Next week could be ugly for corn and wheat if technical levels are broken. The beans may be the last stalwart for the bulls unless we start getting talk [..] > read more

Sell this rally in front of China's GDP Tomorrow

Published on 2012-04-12 14:32:00

In my opinion, this is a bounce to sell. Sadly, we never got to my buy levels. I had 12,635 as my buy. The low was 12,648. In the S&P, the low was 1357, I had a buy down at 1338. So, unfortunately, we didn't get chance to buy it there. Quite honestly, this is a rally I'd look to sell. If the S&P gets close to 1400, then sell some there ditto for the Dow at 13000. Use those levels to get short. Risk a reasonable amount. I believe between now and the end of April, those shorts will be very profita [..] > read more

On Mar 22, GS called stocks "the buy of the century"

Published on 2012-04-10 14:30:00

Interesting that on Mar 22nd an article came out penned by a GS strategist arguing for the long side of stocks and for being short bonds.The Dow, at that point, was hovering at 13,200. Since that article, stocks have dropped 550 points, capped off with today's trade down at 12,648.The broader S&P posted a high at 1422 at that time. Today? Try 1357 for today's low or 65 point hammering.I just think its ironic that Goldman puts out a huge buy story and we melt. I don't see how if clients bought on [..] > read more

Bullish number in grains followed by a sell off

Published on 2012-04-10 14:21:00

Buy the rumor, sell the fact. A neutral to bullish number followed by a puke fest?This suggests a head slap is coming for unpriced 2012 grain.Today a friend sent me an article saying that about 45 percent of producers have nothing sold for 2012. It could get ugly for a farmer if they don't have a good risk/management plan.How ugly? How about ugly enough for Willie Nelson to have a chance to do a whole new round of fund raising for failed farmers. How could that happen, with near record high pric [..] > read more

4/10/12 AM Grain Comment

Published on 2012-04-10 10:12:00

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Wednesday 4/4/12 From the Floor of the CME

Published on 2012-04-04 12:45:00

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Thursday 3/29/12 AM Grain Report

Published on 2012-03-29 09:25:00

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Is Goldman correct? Does it even matter- that's the question

Published on 2012-03-22 08:07:00

In the past few days, Goldman and the rest of the big managers came out with the latest" Big Idea." In short, an end to the commodity supercyle and a beginning of money flow back into equities and away from commodities. They were arguing that now was the time to buy stocks. Now? after the Dow has rallied back from 6500 to 13,500, just 1,300 points from the record 2008 high. Now? afer the S&P has rebounded from 666 on its lows to above the 1400 level. Gee, now you tell me its time to buy? Serious [..] > read more

1400 is a given in the S&P Cash

Published on 2012-03-15 09:56:00

We'll see 1400 shortly in the S&P cash. There's resistance there, 1440 and then 1500. the all time high was 1576 back on the first week of October, 2008.1365 looks to be the new floor of support.Trade Accordingly.Regardless of the fundamentals, the market is telling us it wants to go higher.all those bearish fund managers quoted back in the New York Time and WSJ around December?I hope they flipped and got long.If they haven't yet, I'd love to know when they finally flip.On a side note, May corn [..] > read more

Buy December 4.00 put for 4 cents

Published on 2012-03-14 08:39:00

4 cents a bushel. 200 a contract. December Christmas Corn Puts.If I am correct, these cuold be worth at least a dollar come harvest.Buy them. Put them away. Don't look at them til November.I feel strongly about this.I may be early on this bearish idea, but for 200 dollar bet with a possibility to make 5,000 on that 200 dollar bet, I like this.CER > read more

Reality vs. Perception: The Big Disconnect

Published on 2012-03-13 14:06:00

The S&P cash making its highest ticks since June 2008? The Dow also moving ahead of the 13,000 level.Oil at 107. Back in 2008 oil was 34 dollars a barrel higher.It just seems like a big dis connect to me. The trend is bullish for stocks. We are at the top of our trading range, making new highs. I am hearing less and less bullishness from the cable voice boxes. If you press me, I think we trade sideways to higher through May. I'd then sell in May and go away. I'd have stops in place in case we ha [..] > read more

Monday 3/12/12 Grains Comment

Published on 2012-03-12 11:46:00

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Grains rally on a seemingly neutral/bearish report

Published on 2012-03-09 10:04:00

Anytime we have a market rally after a seemingly bearish/neural report from the USDA it gives me pause.Currently, its 10:05 AM.. Beans corn and wheat are rallying after moving lower on the open.bottom line:Cover the shorts. Targets were hit Wednesday and Thursday.This could be short covering, but to me it smells like something else.The dollar is rallying and grain is rallying. That's also giving me pause. On to the Stock indexes. The Dow had a break down to 12,721. a nice break.I have had profit [..] > read more

Look out Below

Published on 2012-03-06 08:29:00

For a while now, I have been suspect of the rally in the stock indexes. Go back and read my last few entries. I am not calling for the end of the world but its interesting how, as soon as CNBC, GMA, and your local TV anchor start touting the return to 13,000 in the Dow as a sign that "Happy Days are Here Again".. the market steps in with a combination of leather face, Jason from Halloween, and the shark from Jaws in order to deliver some pain to the bulls.Last week, I also did a report from the [..] > read more

Wednesday 02/30/12 AM Grain Comment

Published on 2012-03-01 08:52:00

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1369 was our high in S&P cash in May of 2011

Published on 2012-02-21 08:07:00

Here we are, within a stone's throw of 1369. That high in the spooz was posted in May of 2011, May 2nd to be exact. To refresh any lack of short term memory, 4 months later, on 8/9/2011, S&P was at 1101. That only 268 handles in 20 week. No worries. Just another buying opportunity...(That was my attempt at sarcasm). 20% correction in 20 weeks. Please keep that in mind as you watch TV and listen to the radio this week.The squawking has been about the jump in oil prices. If the S&P can post at fre [..] > read more

Don't get suckered into buying b/c of the Greeks

Published on 2012-02-13 08:02:00

For god sakes, I am watching cable TV this morning and I feel I have to write this letter this morning.Please do not get long stocks here thinking that the Greek issue is all fixed. Now we have Portugal, Ireland,Spain... So don't get lulled into complacency by TV headlines.What happens if Greece does not stay the course? Also, for the love of god, CNBC was asking "What's next ? Dow 15,000??" Good lord almighty they are bullish beyond bullish. All it takes is Greece getting a budget and all is ri [..] > read more

Stock Index Rally is getting really really old

Published on 2012-02-09 13:49:00

This rally in S&P has been nice. Its especially nice if you faded the WSJ and NYTimes bearish news columns which were permeating the land between Christmas and the first week of January. If you go back and read my entries, I suggested fading this bearishness.Alas, now that the S&P is 11.58 rallied up to 13.54, almost 200 handles in 9 weeks. That, my friends, is un sustainable. And now we are starting to see the dow challenge the "next big round number" at 13,000. Looking at the S&P, though its b [..] > read more

Thrusday USDA holds no surprises

Published on 2012-02-09 09:24:00

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Ground Hog Day Floor Tape 2/2/12

Published on 2012-02-02 10:37:00

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WSJ Likes Corn?

Published on 2012-02-01 08:08:00

Fortunately, my shorts in beans which were profits remained profits even on this bounce. That's why I use stops.As for Corn, CH, old crop has been on a nice bounce. We are flirting with the 100 day moving average, a big technical level. 6.50 will be a bump in the road on a rally which will be fueled by short covering in the wheat.There's plenty of wheat, but Europe is worried about cold, Russian Exports, etc. etc.Australia has another huge crop on hand.Worldwide carry out is large and fundamenta [..] > read more

I still like fading the S&P Rally, as well as shorting beans

Published on 2012-01-27 12:49:00

Shorter term, I am still suspicious of the rally in the S&P. I was bearish slightly since 1/23. Today is 1/27 Yesterday we seem to have had a blow off top. People got caught long and then when the negative housing numbers came out, it dampened the initial fervor to buy stocks after the Fed's Dovish remarks.Longer term we may go back to challend the 1350 level and 1360 levels. Over the next 72 hours, I think its better to have some 13.00-12.80 puts on looking for a shorter term technical break [..] > read more

S&P cash has rallied 119 points in last 4 weeks to a new 6-month high

Published on 2012-01-23 09:24:00

Interestingly, the S&P cash has bounced 119 point in the last 4 weeks. On December 19th, we posted a low at 1203. Today's high so far, has been 1322. S&P cash is up at a long term trend line resistance today. Three points of to connect: First 1) High on 5/2/11 at 13.70 Second high 2) 7/7/11 at 13.56. Third intersection today at 13.16.... I'd sell this here and risk 5 points heat to the upside... down side target? 13.00 and then 12.80...This is a good counter trend position. CNBC will be sq [..] > read more

1/17/12 Grain Comment: Beans Bounce w/ US $ dip

Published on 2012-01-17 15:29:00

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Sayonara Grain prices for now

Published on 2012-01-12 14:00:00

USDA in a word. Bearish> Looks like we are headed back to our December lows. Remember those? 11.00 bean, 5.80 corn, 5.77 wheat?We may be headed longer term towards grain returning to being prices LESS than the price of production... Just wait, Its possible.I hope I am right, but... if we plant 97 million acres of corn this year and 1) we get average rain fall (instead of the 2 years of near drought we've had in 2010 and 2011) and if the hybrids kick in, we could have a huge (2Billion bushel) car [..] > read more

January 4th 2012 CME Floor Taping

Published on 2012-01-04 14:57:00

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92.2 Million Acres-- Look Out below

Published on 2011-06-30 10:42:00

I didn't get a chance to write last night. We were very busy in front of today's USDA crop report.Thankfully, one of my rules is that its good to get flat, on a futures basis, in front of numbers.I like options in front of numbers b/c you can ABSOLUT > read more

This Morning From CME Trading Floor

Published on 2011-06-27 13:54:00

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US Dollar UPDATE 3-month high

Published on 2011-06-27 13:31:00

Next stop for the US Dollar resistance is at 76.86-77 from April 2010, then the March high at 77.675 and then culminating with the Feb highs at 79.00For Today, the stock indexes caught a bid, rallying back 150 pts as I write this.The grains rallied a > read more

Hanging Fire

Published on 2011-06-24 14:51:00

Gold Has 80 to 100 bucks down side risk if 1500 does not hold. There is no support until 14.70 and if that fails 1420 is the next stop down on the liquidation band wagon of commodities.I recently read in the WSJ how India and other central banks have > read more

Live From the Floor of the CME Today

Published on 2011-06-23 16:25:00

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Panic VS Trading Dow 11,900 HOLDS AGAIN

Published on 2011-06-23 15:59:00

Once again, having a plan works.I am still long my Stock index position. Thankfully, I had my sell stops in prior to the correction. As the market broke, I wasn't even watching. I had a ton of other stuff going on, but I knew my longs would be protec > read more

That's Why I use Stops

Published on 2011-06-22 13:11:00

Big slap down in the grains today, led by european selling of their french milling wheat. Bottom line, I had bought the dip, and gladly took my 10 cent loss. Corn was down 30 today. Last night we were ten higher. Today we end limit sellers.Thankfu > read more

11,900 Dow Cash brings us to 12,200 but it could be short lived

Published on 2011-06-21 15:09:00

300 pts is just a drop in the bucket, but its a good bounce none the less. There is a trend line above us with an intersection at 12,350. Use 12,350 as a target to liquidate 2/3 of the long positions hopefully you have been holding for the past 4 t > read more

Adjust Stops to insure a 100 pt profit in Dow Position

Published on 2011-06-17 09:25:00

Currently, its 925 AM Chicago Time. Dow futures are at 11,962. You should have been long at the 11,800 level. Raise your protective stops to guarantee that you have minimum of 100 pts profit guaranteed. Currently, you have 162 pt profit if you hit th > read more

Adjust Stops to insure a 100 pt profit in Dow Position

Published on 2011-06-17 09:25:00

PUT YOUR SELL STOP IN AND SIT TIGHT

Published on 2011-06-16 10:25:00

Dow 11,900 CASH holds. This translated into dow futures at 11,800. I know it was painful and uncomfortable to step in an buy when the rest of the world is sitting with a box of kleenex in one hand and a bottle of scotch in the other..That being s > read more

PUT YOUR SELL STOP IN AND SIT TIGHT

Published on 2011-06-16 10:25:00

11,900 IS A BUY

Published on 2011-06-15 11:50:00

A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned that I had seen a headline calling for the next great depression. I don't know if a 10 percent correction is the start of the second leg down or not. 11,900 is the 1/2 way retracement from our Dec Low at 10,932 and > read more

11,900 IS A BUY

Published on 2011-06-15 11:50:00

Wide Trading Ranges Look Probable for the next 12 weeks

Published on 2011-06-13 07:59:00

We may be nearing the bottom of our trading ranges in the Stock indexes for the Summer.12,215 is the mid point of our recent 1325 trading range. The low of that range was put in Mid March 2011. The high we pierced just 6 weeks ago on May 2nd.I like t > read more

Wide Trading Ranges Look Probable for the next 12 weeks

Published on 2011-06-13 07:59:00

July Corn Failed at 8.00 once again, while CZ settled at 712

Published on 2011-06-10 14:57:00

With corn at record levels, one has to consider at what point it continues to attract fresh buyers. A bull must be fed every day. A bull market needs sustained buying. A bull market can fail, no so much do to some graphic or frightening catalyst. Ver > read more

July Corn Failed at 8.00 once again, while CZ settled at 712

Published on 2011-06-10 14:57:00

Stock Indexes Eye the Spring Lows-- Look out Below

Published on 2011-06-10 13:10:00

The March low in the Dow cash was 11,555. With the failure of support at 12,055, and the move below 12,000, sell stops have been touched off. I wrote last week that if the market did fall apart, we'd get short on a sell stop. I had had a small winnin > read more

Stock Indexes Eye the Spring Lows-- Look out Below

Published on 2011-06-10 13:10:00

USDA tomorrow At 7:30

Published on 2011-06-08 15:56:00

I'd sit tight the Dow position. At this point its a push, with a free upside potential if it rallies.Tomorrow the USDA releases crop production figures.Interestingly, CZ settled 6 3/4 cents higher than the last trade. I don't think its the pit who se > read more

USDA tomorrow At 7:30

Published on 2011-06-08 15:56:00

USDA Tomorrow-Live From the Floor

Published on 2011-06-08 09:48:00

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USDA Tomorrow-Live From the Floor

Published on 2011-06-08 09:48:00

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Dow bounces 100 pts....Can it keep fighting back?

Published on 2011-06-07 11:53:00

Yesterday's low in Cash Dow was 12,070. today' high has been 12, 173. If you bought yesterday, please put a sell stop in. With this strategy, you should come away from this position at worse case, with a push. If you can lock in a small profit all, t > read more

Dow bounces 100 pts....Can it keep fighting back?

Published on 2011-06-07 11:53:00

Buy the Dow today, risk 100 points

Published on 2011-06-06 08:55:00

12.093 was our April 18th low in the Dow Cash. Last Friday's low at 12, 104 was a great buy. 12, 061 was my target. If you have not bought it already, buy it today.I'd risk 100-200 points loss. I'd have scale out sell orders above at 12, 284 an > read more

Buy the Dow today, risk 100 points

Published on 2011-06-06 08:55:00

Dow Cash Retraces 1/2 of its 3 month, 1,321 point rally

Published on 2011-06-02 12:52:00

Dow Retraces 1/2 of its 3-month 1,321 point rally.We posted a 5-month low on March 16th at 11,556. We rallied to a 3 year high on May 2nd at 12,876. Hence, the 1,321 point rally. That doesn't get any attention in the media.However, Break 660 points i > read more

Bearish Fever Returns to Forefront?? CNBC calling a top? You have to be joking..

Published on 2011-06-01 13:53:00

Oh, my goodness, its already begun. Summer's apon us, earning season doesn't kick in strong again until next September, and the Stock Index bears are waking up.Stock indexes are generally accepted as a forward looking indicators. In March of 2009 S&P > read more

Technical Analysis Is Not Exact By Any Means

Published on 2011-06-01 10:38:00

Last night I wrote that the Dow futures had popped above an upper trend line which had been resistance over the past 3 weeks. Take these three points, the 5/2/11 high at 12873, the 5/11/11 high at 12744, and the 5/13/11 high at 12713.. Draw the trend > read more

Today 5/31/11 From the CME Trading Floor

Published on 2011-05-31 16:38:00

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God Help Those Who Trade Off of TV Suggestions

Published on 2011-05-31 14:59:00

Last Friday I wrote how the movement in Wheat had finally hit the national media. CNBC, forever perma bulls, ran a story which could only be described as "friendly" wheat..The suggestion was to look favorably on the High protein wheat in Minneapolis > read more

Downside potential in Wheat and Beans

Published on 2011-05-31 08:40:00

WN has 40 cents of downside risk here. SX has 50 cents of downside risk.Both contracts have failed at upper trend line Resistance.SX has a trendline from 1410 April 11th, drawn to the may 26th high at 1382 1/2..Sell against these trendlines.In WN go > read more

Friday before a long Memorial Day ----Get Flat

Published on 2011-05-27 12:03:00

I don't like having positions on over a long weekend. Markets will be closed until Monday night at 6PM.For my taste, that is too much risk. If you have positions on with good profits, consider getting out today and putting them back on Tuesday Mornin > read more

745 AM Chicago Time 5/25/11 From The CME Floor

Published on 2011-05-25 14:15:00

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A quick Technical Out Look for my favorite Markets

Published on 2011-05-24 17:04:00

As the school year ends, graduations and weddings are upon us, its not unusual to see the stock indexes go to sleep. June is upon us, July is a holiday month in the US, and then Europe basically shuts down for August.Barring any unforeseen calamity, > read more

Risk Off Day---as Greece Issues Pop Up Again

Published on 2011-05-23 10:03:00

Dow Jones Cash has support at 12,321,,, 12,161 and the 12,000. Sadly we never got the doubling print up above in Dow Cash, but we did in the S&P.. In the S&P we have support at 1306, and then 1291.. Quite frankly, a settlement below 1300 in the S&P > read more

Do not Marry any position--EVER

Published on 2011-05-18 16:52:00

Sell Target gets hit, Buy target gets hit.. Now What?I watched a client ride a 12 cent winner to a 35 cent loser back to a 23 cent winner in the past 4 days. I suggested all along he have protective stops. He declined to use them. I can't force some > read more

New Crop Beans Hit Target

Published on 2011-05-18 10:05:00

I know its scary to sell into a powerful rally, but the area I wanted to sell in SX has been hit here today on a powerful sympathetic rally with corn. Currently the 13.50 level in futures is trading. Risk 35 cents on a sell stop to try to catch a pot > read more

Dow Cash Moves Towards buy targets...

Published on 2011-05-17 10:30:00

Very quickly, Look for 12,325 as a buying opportunity. Next I would buy 12,150, and then 12,000.Those are scale in buy targets.As always, have an exit strategy with sell stops to protect your buys.In general, the "risk off" herd mentality gives us sh > read more

Sell New Crop Beans, risk 35 cents to make 1.20

Published on 2011-05-16 16:47:00

In my opinion, New crop beans are a good sale here. I'd like to ideally sell SX at 13.40 The market is getting supportive news which should be bullish. However, the market is re acting sluggishly.Perhaps the 8 month, $6.00 rally is long in the tooth. > read more

Live From The Floor Monday 5/16/11

Published on 2011-05-16 09:11:00

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Dollar Low Looks to be in Place

Published on 2011-05-11 14:44:00

On April 27th, I wrote a note here saying that I did not want to own the US Dollar until it traded down to 71. On that day, we were trading at 73.70. Five trading days later, the US dollar fell to 72.86, which was the lowest tick since July of 2008. > read more

Apparently, the Crude Oil Train has departed

Published on 2011-05-11 12:21:00

I talked this week about 100 dollar barrel oil being a fulcrum. It seems that supply/demand has finally reared its head, with gasoline, crude oil, heating oil and the whole complex coming under sell pressure.One thing seems to be evident is 4.30 and > read more

USDA Crop report is confusing

Published on 2011-05-11 07:47:00

4 million more corn acres than last year, raised ethanol usage, but lowered domesic usage, raised carry out for old crop, but lowered the 2011 trend line yield 3 bu/ per acre.Early opening call, 20- 30 lower. It looks bearish for old crop, bullis > read more

Corn 40% planted: Trade was looking for 32%

Published on 2011-05-09 15:59:00

Supply and demand figures will be released Wednesday May 11th at 730AM CST. I have no idea what the government might say, bullish or bearish.I know we have just had a nice sell off, fueled by the general commoditiy cotraction lower we just sat throug > read more

Exiting Metal Shorts This Morning

Published on 2011-05-09 11:31:00

Target of 35.25 in Silver was hit. I am out of my short position. Ditto my shorts in gold. Those were exited at 1480 last week on the dip down on Thursday.I am flat currently in metals.We have a USDA supply/demand report coming out Wednesday. I will > read more

Unemployment improves to 9%

Published on 2011-05-06 08:07:00

First off, unemployment is now at 9%. US economy generated 244K new non farm payrolls, 90 percent coming from the private sector.I picked the 94-95 level as supportin the crude oil yesterday. I am surprised we spiked down there early. Surprised but > read more

Crude will be the Talk of the Nation

Published on 2011-05-05 10:29:00

With Gas at 445 here in Chicago, i wonder if those gas stations will run out to drop the price with today's break in crude. from 110 down to 102 in one day? Will there be a congressional investigation as to why these prices moved lower so fast? BTW I > read more

5/5/12 From the CME this morning

Published on 2011-05-05 09:11:00

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38 Bucks --- Silver bulls drop 25% in 6 trading Days

Published on 2011-05-05 08:58:00

Its great when a plan comes together. 38.00 is a 50% retracement of the rally which started at 26.23 back on Jan 28th. Silver took 3 months to almost double, and one week to give back 50% of that 3-month move.I have sold puts against my existing long > read more

1:17 5/4/11 Trade Update US Dollar Data

Published on 2011-05-04 13:16:00

Silver low so far today: 38.94 Gold low so far: 1505. US dollar, 72.860...33 month low going back to July 08Interestingly, if you pull up a long term chart of the Dollar Index, there is a massive resistance up at the 89.00 level. From a support stand > read more

Where's the bottom in Metals?

Published on 2011-05-03 16:06:00

silver has pulled back 38% at 40.85. Next support is 50% pullback at 38.00 If that does not hold, I'd love to see a melt down to 35.25.Right now it looks pretty ugly for the metal bulls. Especially those who followed the hype and bought off fear.Gold > read more

Trade UPDATE From April 26th

Published on 2011-05-03 08:38:00

On Tuesday April 26th, I wrote two blog entries. In one, I mentioned how i had heard on the radio a financial commentator talking about metals. I bought some cheap puts, because I am in the opinion that when the news hits the national media, you abso > read more

A Decade Later Justice is Served

Published on 2011-05-02 09:15:00

Reports out that Bin Laden was shot in the left eye. His body was photographed, DNA was taken. Then he was buried at sea. I think I speak for every one on the political spectrum that this was a good outcome. Of course, there are probably 50 people st > read more

Time to cover some of the Cotton Shorts put on back on April 14th

Published on 2011-04-28 15:50:00

Please go back to April 14th. I suggested selling cotton. Cotton made 3 month lows today. Cover 1/3 and move protective buy stops on the other 2/3rd. We've had a 40 cent break. It could go a lot further. Time will Tell.Dow cash stubbornly held on to > read more

Don't buy the US Dollar until the 71 level is tested

Published on 2011-04-27 09:28:00

I have been looking for a level here to get long the US dollar. Looking at long term chart, I think there is another 3 cent down side risk here. 71 area is where I'd like to buy it, either on a flush or after a slow grind down to those levels.The Ber > read more

12,920 Dow is the new upside target

Published on 2011-04-26 11:31:00

12,920 is a perfect double from the panic low at 6460. Today's high at 12,550 is less than 400 point from that target. I think we'll see that print in the next six weeks.The Bernanke may have something to say about that, however. Bottom line, we have > read more

Head for the Sidelines or be a small, disciplined Short

Published on 2011-04-26 08:41:00

The Bernanke is going to have a press conference tomorrow. Strategy? Turn off your computer and do not trade.There are 240 trading days in a year. Some days are better days to head off fishing.If, however, you must trade. I would have outlier bids an > read more

Live From the floor Thursday 4/21/11

Published on 2011-04-21 11:48:00

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Sell Dow here at 12,400 risk 100 pts

Published on 2011-04-20 12:12:00

Sell the Dow here at 12,400. If we can't settle above 12,400 we could be right back down where we were 48 hours ago.Its a holiday weekend. Who wants to go home long over Easter Weekend?That is all.CER > read more

Sell Target Hit in Gold at 1500, a quick 5 buck profit

Published on 2011-04-19 13:01:00

The sell target in gold was hit at 1500. We promptly broke down to 1493 for a nice 6 buck scalp.Hope you took advantage of the move.. Since that high, we have not gotten above 1497.80, but I think we will test 1500 at least a few more times. Afte > read more

Watch 12,000 level in Dow and 1300 level in the S&P

Published on 2011-04-19 10:32:00

Watch the 12,000 level in cash Dow and the 1300 level in S&P.If the indexes can consolidate around these areas, showing strength, then we may have a shot at taking a new leg higher.Having Geitner get grilled on Face the Nation on Sunday, followed by > read more

Dow Short Pays off- lower protective buy stops and look for the 11,900 level

Published on 2011-04-18 10:00:00

Dow short pays off our patience. 12,400 looks like a massive double top on the charts.We took profits on Friday. Now I am going to just lower buy stops every time we break 50 points. I am not sure if 12,000 will hold, or if we break down to 11,600-11 > read more

Friday April 15th--Position Update

Published on 2011-04-15 13:32:00

Today, I exited the 2/3 of the long gold position. 40 bucks in 3 days was a great pop.I have taken profits on the short Dow position, and remain net short a small position. I still don't think this market can get above the 12,400 level. I continue > read more

Get Short Cotton on any rally

Published on 2011-04-14 11:44:00

I like selling rallies now in Cotton.Last Thursday, on the 31st, Cotton got very bullish numbers on that crop report.Since then it has moved sideways to lower. When a market gets bullish news and does not rally, that is a sign of weakness.For a good > read more

Short the Dow, Long Gold

Published on 2011-04-14 09:13:00

Right now, I am very pleased with the Dow Short position I am sitting on. Ditto on the buy for Gold. Tuesday afternoon, Gold dipped down to 1445. I had buys at 1450 and 1475. Right now gold is on its high at 1468. I am taking some profits, and moving > read more

When in Doubt, Bail and Re Group

Published on 2011-04-12 08:53:00

The short Dow position looks good. Now I have moved stops to guarantee a push at worse.Crude oil looks dicey. I am going to exit my longs on a sell stop here if we get a move below 106.50.Better to exit and re group than to get sliced and diced.I sti > read more

Crude Spins at 110... is this a bull trap?

Published on 2011-04-11 16:20:00

Crude oil had what looks to be a key-reversal day on the charts. That's a technical way to say we may have had blow off top. Its no coincidence that this may have co incided with my bailing on my short position, and taking a small long position at 10 > read more

Gold and Crude rotate to the upside

Published on 2011-04-08 09:26:00

Both Gold and Crude rotate up through resistance, opening the door to much higher prices in both those commodities. 110.00 was resistance in corn, 1450 was resistanc in Gold. I have been stopped out of my gold shorts, and have flipped long.I am sti > read more

Corn is the most volatile commodity around

Published on 2011-04-05 13:55:00

First things first. Gold: the 1450 target was reached. I exited a small long position, flipped and am now short. I am looking for a pull back down to 1428 and then 1418. If, however, we rotate up to to a new high, I will be stopped out with a small l > read more

Dow Stalls Out at 12,400 Yet Again

Published on 2011-04-05 09:03:00

Bottom line, Dow cash has trouble breathing above 12,400. I continue to be short here, looking for a correction own to 12,100 to take some profits, and then again at 11,800 on a flush lower. Time will tell.In the grains, I am wary of being long going > read more

Live from the Trading Floor Today March 31st

Published on 2011-03-31 16:23:00

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The first loss is your best loss

Published on 2011-03-31 14:23:00

USDA report showed 300 Million bushels light in the carry out. The market responded by heading sharply higher. We were limit up Plus 30 cents. The synthetic was showing we'd be another 35 higher on opening tonight. 65 cents rally back in 2 days.I wou > read more

Maintain Shorts in Dow, but keep the emergency exit in sight

Published on 2011-03-30 14:42:00

I want to maintain my shorts in the Dow, with a hard buy stop above 12,400> I am not going to tell you my specific level. When and if i get stopped out I will tell you.I am comfortable taking a little more heat on my initial short position. However, > read more

Crude Short looks good

Published on 2011-03-28 08:11:00

Friday, I suggested getting short at the 106.50-106.00 area. Today we are down 1.50.Make sure you move your buy stop down and secure guaranteed profit. Do not let this position be anything less than a winner. I am still short the Dow. I will wait ano > read more

Friday and waiting for next week USDA---Where's Beeks?

Published on 2011-03-25 13:06:00

I will stay short the dow futures here, risking probably another 100 points or so.For crude oil, we have returned to the scene of the crime, with this resistance at 106.00I would wait to see if we can sell futures at yesterday's high around 106.50. I > read more

Where's China? and we are short the Dow at the Trendline

Published on 2011-03-24 07:58:00

Still waiting for China to show up in the USDA... My gut tells me we'll be waiting for a while. We are short the Dow futures at 12100. We got filled overnight. I have a buy stop above, but I am looking to risk one standard deviation to the upside > read more

March 21st from the Floor of the CME

Published on 2011-03-21 17:06:00

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Suggest Selling Dow when cash hits 12,100

Published on 2011-03-21 12:01:00

There is trendline on the daily charts above the current Dow cash level. 12123 is the trend line intersecton to sell. Tomorrow its 12109.I suggest selling this rally here. The Dow has rallied 564 points in 3 sessions. I think this is a great rally to > read more

China Syndrome

Published on 2011-03-21 09:06:00

With the pop up here above 11,850 we were stopped out of the rest of our shorts.I have a small long position on, with an upside target of 12,400. I will patiently wait to sell that level.I am patiently waiting to exit longs and initiate shorts at 144 > read more

Volatility City

Published on 2011-03-18 16:02:00

Dow Jones cash settles at 11,858. We are still short from 400 points above on some contracts, with buy stops protecting profits.I am out of the Dollar trade as of today. The bounce I was looking for was half hearted, and there is too much speculative > read more

Market's find footing

Published on 2011-03-17 10:25:00

Dow cash looks like that 11666 was the right point to cover shorts and get flat.I am still short a few, but might get stopped out any minute here. Currently we are 11781 in the cash Dow, up 168.00 There are worse things than taking 600 to 700 point > read more

11,660 BUY for Dow CASH

Published on 2011-03-16 12:43:00

Cover shorts from 12,400 here at 11,660. This is a 50% retracement of the rally which started after Thanksgiving. We rallied from 10,920 up to 12,400 in 3 months.This is a breather.I am exiting 75% of the position. I am leaving the other 25 percent o > read more

For Today, meltdown potential equals more downside pressure

Published on 2011-03-15 09:21:00

Yesterday, they assured the world the sea water and borium was doing the job. If there is another Chernobyl, short term its bearish. Longer term, it has to be bullish for commodities. Japan imports huge amounts of corn. Unless things degenerate sharp > read more

Quake ripple effects

Published on 2011-03-14 07:34:00

Uncertainty after the Japanese Earthquake(s) has given us increased volatility.Position re-cap: Short the crude from an average of 102.00 after the 103.50/60 level did not hold. Long the dollar index from the 76.50 level with a stop near 75.00. That > read more

Earth quake spurs profits in our short positions, and our long US Dollar

Published on 2011-03-11 08:14:00

Currently short cash dow from 12,400 sales. Short oil from 103 and adding to shorts on the panic flush. Thank you copier salesman. If I see you I will give you a gift certificate for dinner in the City.The US dollar is looking like a the place to be. > read more

Hope you bought the Dollar w/ me

Published on 2011-03-10 07:46:00

We had a crop report this morning, so I am in the office early. The US dollar is up 50 cents today,, hmmm. right now the high tick is 77.28.Adjust your sell stops to insure profits. Make sure your winner does not turn into a loser.That is all.One int > read more

Spec Long in US Dollar Looks Better And Better

Published on 2011-03-08 13:21:00

The decision to buy the US dollar I chose about 7 days ago is shaping up better and better. Right now I am able to insure that at worst the position will be a small winner on 1/3, a push on the other 2/3. As the market continues to rally, hopefully, > read more

WARNING SIGN FOR CRUDE OIL

Published on 2011-03-07 12:59:00

Warning, A true fact.A gentleman came in to day to fix our copier machine here in the office. He took a look around the office and asked if we were trading anything. We said yes, in fact we were traders and risk managers. He responded that he just bo > read more

New Start after Unemployment Friday

Published on 2011-03-07 08:11:00

Re:cap. I still want to build a long position here in the dollar. 75.50 is the fulcrum, to bail on this long position. I am looking for the dollar to catch a bid and rally up to the 80-81 level. This is a trade where we are looking for a 4:1 risk re- > read more

Today From The Floor

Published on 2011-03-03 15:57:00

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Double Top in the Dow at 12,400

Published on 2011-03-01 16:10:00

Last week I wrote that it looked like a double top in Dow Cash as 12,400. Probably in a week or two, after the market breaks to 11,833, which will be 567 point, there will be an analyst on TV discussing "the mysteries of technical analysis", and how > read more

Dollar looks like a good buy here March 1st 2011

Published on 2011-03-01 08:42:00

Generally I don't speak about specific currency plays. My plate is full enough trading the stock indexes, gold, crude and corn wheat and beans.However, I do look at the currencies, specifically the dollar, the euro and the yen.I like to have a genera > read more

Huge Target Hit in Crude at 103.70

Published on 2011-02-25 17:07:00

Crude has been in a sweet uptrend for the last 2 years since bottoming out at 34 dollars a barrel in Jan of 09. I have written before that when Hillary and Maxine waters were squealing about "punishing" greedy oil companies in July 08 with oil at 147 > read more

Volatility Rules

Published on 2011-02-23 16:15:00

Corn shorts were covered. The last short position was covered, I then was fortunate enough to have a sell order at 99.98. That was a good scalp opportunity today.Grains had their usual 24 hour correction followed by a demand driven rally. Corn an > read more

Double Top in DOW CASH at 12390

Published on 2011-02-22 14:41:00

Once the Dow got above 12,000, I thought we would grind higher up to around the next resistance at 12,733 which was the May 2008 high. In the last 5 weeks alone, Dow Cash rallied 1,465 pts from bottom to today's and last Friday's high at the 12,390 l > read more

Corn down 30, wheat down 60, beans down 70

Published on 2011-02-22 10:53:00

Well, I have been thinking the grains were looking tired. If you follow my posts, I had been buying dips and trying to sell new highs. Quite honestly, I was getting that funny feeling. I had written that I was not sure what to do, and had been steppi > read more

Well, here comes the correction

Published on 2011-02-22 09:49:00

Last Friday I wrote that that action in Cotton looked like a blow off top. So far today cotton is down 13.50 cents a bale lower. It had been close to 19 cents lower earlier. Each penny is worth 500 bucks on a one lot. $7,000 on a one lot. Not a bad s > read more

Grains look tired, Stock Indexes Highest in 30 months

Published on 2011-02-18 14:52:00

On a Friday going into a long weekend I don't have much to say. The grains look tired, but that does not mean they can't push higherMarch options expiration saw liquidation in Beans and Wheat, but Corn continued to hold tough.I rarely speak of cotton > read more

Yesterday *WED 2/17/11

Published on 2011-02-17 11:32:00

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Yesterday *WED 2/17/11

Published on 2011-02-17 11:32:00

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Profits booked, up leg returns

Published on 2011-02-17 08:29:00

The short bean and corn positions are mostly history. I had moved buy stops to insure 20 to 30 cents profit a contract on all positions. I am still short some corn, but I am out of the bean shorts.For now, I am flat the grains. I want to step aside g > read more

Profits booked, up leg returns

Published on 2011-02-17 08:29:00

Grains Sell off today

Published on 2011-02-15 16:16:00

Yesterday after the close I wrote that I was bearish, wanted to sell grains, and was not looking to buy breaks.Today beans settled 34 cents lower, wheat settled 32 cents lower and corn settled 12 cents off its high, but 5 cents lower on the day.Maint > read more

Grains Sell off today

Published on 2011-02-15 16:16:00

Watch crude if it Settles below 85.00

Published on 2011-02-15 08:35:00

Just a short note. If crude settles below 85, that opens the door to further correction lower. We may trade all over the place during the day. Where we settle is what counts.That is all.CER > read more

Watch crude if it Settles below 85.00

Published on 2011-02-15 08:35:00

Grains Look Over Due for a Valentines Massacre

Published on 2011-02-14 14:29:00

Corn has rallied 1.90 in the past 60 trading sessions. Beans have rallied 2.72 cents in the past 60 trading days Wheat has rallied 1.35 in the past 60 trading days.There are no more bears out there. Every one has turned bullish. Time to think about i > read more

Grains Look Over Due for a Valentines Massacre

Published on 2011-02-14 14:29:00

Crude Flirts with Rolling Over Through Trend line support

Published on 2011-02-14 12:55:00

For the second session in a row, spot crude (CL) settled below a key long term trend line support. I personally will have a sell stop triggered if crude settles below 85.0 An ugly settlement like that should send the bulls for cover. That being said, > read more

Crude Flirts with Rolling Over Through Trend line support

Published on 2011-02-14 12:55:00

March Crude Trendline target hit today- low 85.88

Published on 2011-02-08 13:32:00

86-86.50 was my target from yesterday. I think that was the dip to buy. Be willing to take a dollar heat, down to 85. although. I think you hold your longs with a target to sell 89.35 and then 90.15. Hope you've been following this. We have scalped 8 > read more

March Crude Trendline target hit today- low 85.88

Published on 2011-02-08 13:32:00

Trendline Support Below in Crude at 86.50-86.00

Published on 2011-02-07 15:08:00

Wow, I hope that for those of you who sold crude at 92 on my suggestion still have some shorts left. I never thought we'd break this hard, but, my guess was right, people got short based on fears about Egypt. And were promptly rewarded for their acti > read more

Trendline Support Below in Crude at 86.50-86.00

Published on 2011-02-07 15:08:00

88.11 was low tick 88.50 last in Crude/// Take Profits

Published on 2011-02-07 09:35:00

Currently the low of the session in CL crude is 88.11. I was looking for a pullback to these levels. I would cover profits, or at least lower protective buy stops to guarantee profits.As for the Grains, I would not want to be short wheat or beans tod > read more

88.11 was low tick 88.50 last in Crude/// Take Profits

Published on 2011-02-07 09:35:00

88.05 is the point to cover crude... Unemployment drops to 9%

Published on 2011-02-04 14:47:00

88.05 is a good place to cover crude shorts if you initiated them on the spike to 92.00 Interestingly, the trend is still bullish, so this is a dip to buy.Once again, the once vaunted unemployment number went off like a wet fire cracker. The US econo > read more

88.05 is the point to cover crude... Unemployment drops to 9%

Published on 2011-02-04 14:47:00

Crude trades to 92.05, Please tell me you sold some

Published on 2011-02-03 11:16:00

Today's high in Crude was 92.05 we broke down to 90. Currently, as I write this its 90.47.All I can say is I hope you took the trade and scalped the profit. That is all.Good Trading > read more

92.50 is what we call RESISTANCE

Published on 2011-02-01 18:28:00

Look at the daily chart for CL, Crude. Three days ago, we were down at 85.11. Riots in Egypt, no one knows if the Suez is safe, and crude rallies 7 dollars in 2 trading days.... Oil hits the front pages as people panic, buy, and .... wait for it... i > read more

Time to Step Back and Re Evaluate

Published on 2011-02-01 17:03:00

The bounce back in equities to those numbers has given me pause. Perhaps we will return to being cautiously bullish. I think its wise to step back and take a neutral position at these levels. I am naturally inclined to sell these levels.However, the > read more

Good Trading Profits today for Short Stocks and Long Crude

Published on 2011-01-28 11:21:00

FYI, if you go back to my letters on Jan 23 and 24, I suggested selling the 12,000 print in Dow cash and the 1300 print in S&P Cash. currently, Dow is down 167 and the S&P 500 is down 22 HANDLES!! Sweet when a plan turns out. Its always the thing you > read more

Crude bounces from 85.07, 87.90 then 88.74

Published on 2011-01-28 08:56:00

Crude finished its 10-day, $7.00 break from 92.50 down to today's low at 85.07... Its Friday. Its the last day of the month. Traders will take profits. Buying could push us up to 87.87, and then 1/2 way back of the move, which i always like to sell > read more

Dow Prints 12,000 but can't settle above

Published on 2011-01-26 15:41:00

Fan fare, trumpets and three cheers emanated across the assorted TV Crews as the Dow printed 12,000. S&P Cash couldn't get the 1300 print, however, running out of steam at 1299.74.I think the next 2 months will be tell tale for these indexes. If all > read more

Gold and Silver have room to go on the downside

Published on 2011-01-25 09:53:00

A daily chart of gold looks a little ugly for the bulls. It looks like a head and shoulders. I wouldn't be in a hurry to try to buy gold. First buy would be 1297 Second buy I really like is 1265. I wrote about 2 months ago that I was going to scream > read more

Crude trades to 86.30... 86.34 was my target 2 days ago

Published on 2011-01-25 07:50:00

This morning's break in crude went right to the target of 86.34 with a low at 86.30.Resting orders there covered all shorts. It looks like we might have another flush, as the market focus shifts to the Fed.Honestly? Do you really think the fed will r > read more

Last Friday From the Floor

Published on 2011-01-24 10:21:00

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Monday Morning Hang Over

Published on 2011-01-24 09:48:00

Good Morning,Dow cash is only 75 ticks away from that 11,000 print. Granted the national press won't get their toes curled up until we settle above 11,000.. However, when Dow cash hits that print, I would want to initiate sell in Dow Futures.As for C > read more

Dow peaks above 11,900

Published on 2011-01-21 17:27:00

11,905 was today's high tick in dow cash. 12,000 can't be far behind. And the feeling is still bearish. This is shaping up to be a creeping rally. Those are the hardest to trade, because it takes time to get paid off for being on the "right" side of > read more

Rumors of Chinese Buying US Corn Spark buying and short covering

Published on 2011-01-20 13:33:00

Can anyone say "volatility"?? Just yesterday CH broke from a new 2-1/2 year high at 666 1/4. The low was 7.27 1/2. 7.30 was a 50% RT of the 7 week, 71 cent up move.Apparently, that was enough to get buyers back in to the market.More importantly, the > read more

Key Reversal in Corn.. Breather or Elevator Shaft?

Published on 2011-01-20 10:09:00

Corn made a new 2-1/2 year high at 666 1/4. that marked a 1.46 rally from the November low, and a 71 cent rally from the January low.Profit taking is in order. If you've been reading my blog, I have been a cautious seller of new highs, ALWAYS enterin > read more

Acreage War is On between Corn and Beans

Published on 2011-01-18 13:29:00

After the long weekend, it seems that we once again will have fresh buying interest in corn and beans. Demand rationing levels are seemingly above the horizon still. March corn traded up to a new high at 6.62. I don't think there will be real reactio > read more

China raises rates for the 4th time in 8 weeks

Published on 2011-01-14 10:09:00

China raised rates 50 pbs overnight. Also they let it be known that they will be limiting commodity purchases...Quite frankly, this smells like a bluff to me. China is becoming the little boy who cried wolf.They are notorious now for releasing commen > read more

Three trades I like for the next 10 days

Published on 2011-01-13 09:26:00

First, Dow Cash, sell the first time at 11,800. Second Crude Oil, Sell at 92.50. On the buy side, buy at 89.82.Third, Gold, Sell at 1398.When you initiate the sell, also place your buy stop.I still have a feeling that we are due for a correction e > read more

Bullish Sentiment is Rewarded

Published on 2011-01-12 15:29:00

Today was a very bullish number for the grains. Especially the beans and corn. I am not going to pull punches. I am glad that my spec's were only puts. Yes we gave up value in those puts. They will most likely expire worthless. However, I would conti > read more

USDA number in 10 minutes

Published on 2011-01-12 07:18:00

The USDA final number for 2010 will be out in 12 minutes. As I write this, I have to lean towards predicting a lower day at 1:15 in the grains when the smoke clears. My experience is that markets serve to punish, to a certain extent, as many people > read more

Trade Update

Published on 2011-01-10 17:58:00

CH never got down to 591. The lowest it traded was 5.95. I would hold off now in front of the Tuesday USDA number on trying to buy a dip and the scalp out of it.The dow trade was and is still profitable. I am comfortable being short here now with a > read more

Sell the dow, risk 100 points to make 300

Published on 2011-01-07 10:57:00

I had a target at 11,800 for dow cash. Best we could do was 11,742 on Wednesday.Sell it on a rally. Look to cover 1/2 at 11440. cover the other 1/2 at 11,340. I would want to get long at 11,340 level.That is all.CER > read more

Buy CH at 591 Risk a nickel

Published on 2011-01-07 10:44:00

Corn is breaking here on Friday. If CH gives you a chance, buy it at 591. Risk a nickle.If we break to 577 1/2 get long there against 574.That is all.No Big Surprise 93 point trading range in Dow Futures so far today. Unemployment, as far as givi > read more

Grain Outlook in front of next Wednsday's USDA

Published on 2011-01-06 16:12:00

Very briefly,I would want to buy any big dip in front of this number, be it corn, wheat, or beans.I am especially friendly beans.I am writing this on Thursday Jan 6th at 4:10 pm.If you remember last Jan 2010's number, we broke hard off this number. W > read more

Unemployment is less and less a Mover and Shaker

Published on 2011-01-06 15:54:00

Back in the late 80's the market began focusing on the monthly unemployment number as a catalyst for major moves in markets. Of course, long term interest rates were in the double digits. A "great mortgage" was under 10%.When the unemployment number > read more

Grain and Metal Correction is overdue to clear out weak longs

Published on 2011-01-05 09:08:00

CH could drop another 20 cents a bushel. I want to buy corn between 577 and then again at 564. Seeing as we were just at 6.35 two days ago, and we are heading into a Jan 12th USDA number, we should see continued short term panic selling.Wheat is a di > read more

Don't be a hero trying to fight this Market Bullishness

Published on 2011-01-03 09:19:00

Its a new year. The bulls are out across the board. My advice is to buy dips, going with the market psychology for January, at least for the first ten trading days.There is a lot of money on the sidelines poised to jump into the market. I wrote las > read more

Strong Finish for the New Year in all Commodities

Published on 2010-12-31 10:50:00

I have not written an entry in a bit. Today is the last trading day of 2010. As I write this, Dow Cash is bumping up against 11,600, S&P cash is bumping up against 1260. These are the highest levels since Oct 09, a fact that has been trumpeted far an > read more

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