Blog Feed: Cautious Bull

OK, I don’t have the answer to this question at the moment, but I’m seeking the feedback of readers in order to identify the UK listed companies with the most horrific-looking financial statements. I don’t just mean high leverage, but the full works: related party transactions, operating & capital leases, unlisted joint ventures and associates, [...] > read more

Update: Euromoney Institutional Investor – 55% Undervalued

Published on 2011-07-28 10:03:41

Earlier this year I reviewed the UK-listed financial media group Euromoney Institutional Investor plc (report here), concluding that: In summary, I view Euromoney Institutional Investor as a well-diversified business with interests in a large number of leading publications and services. Fixed asset and working capital requirements are negligible, allowing the company to generate a large [...] > read more

Updated Apple Inc Model – Base Case $537 per Share; Bull Case $630

Published on 2011-07-20 13:56:22

My analysis of Apple is relatively rough and ready, but I believe a great level of detail is not required given the simple balance sheet and huge gap between the estimate ($537) and the current share price ($390). The key assumptions are as follows: 4Q11 revenue identical to that reported in 3Q11. Year-on-year revenue growth [...] > read more

The Economic Issues Raised by Possible Scottish Independence

Published on 2011-07-18 04:30:39

On 5th May 2011, the first time since devolution in July 1999, the Scottish National Party won a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood. One of the key manifesto promises of the party is to hold a referendum on Scottish independence before 2016. While political commentators have begun discussing the potential political [...] > read more

My Financial & Economic Pet Hates

Published on 2011-07-10 14:10:29

In no particular order, here goes: Stock/flow errors. This is usually the mistake of journalists and politicians rather than professional investors, though is still far and away my biggest pet hate due to the basic nature of the error. For those readers not familiar with the concept, a stock is a measure taken at a [...] > read more

Clarkson plc: Cash Machine

Published on 2011-07-04 10:26:26

Listed on the London Stock Exchange (LON:CKN) Clarkson plc, recently covered by Valuhunteruk, describes itself as: Clarksons are the world’s leading provider of integrated shipping services, bringing our connections and experience to an intern > read more

Back Next Week

Published on 2011-06-24 13:54:21

Apologies about the recent lack of posts – I’ve been otherwise engaged. CautiousBull should be back in action later next week. In the meantime, you can follow me on Twitter or subscribe to the RSS feed to get new posts as soon as the > read more

Is ASOS plc Overvalued?

Published on 2011-06-14 10:29:33

Taken from the company’s own website, ASOS plc describes itself as: ASOS is a global online fashion and beauty retailer and offers over 50,000 branded and own label product lines across womenswear, menswear, footwear, accessories, jewellery and > read more

Chinese Property Developer Shui On Land Faces A Liquidity Squeeze

Published on 2011-06-14 07:17:28

As you may have seen from my Twitter feed yesterday, I learned that I didn’t get (yet another) job that I recently interviewed for. However, the upside of this is I can now share the presentation that I made at the second round of the intervi > read more

10 Reasons to Be Bullish on the US Economy

Published on 2011-06-10 10:36:24

The last few weeks have seen equities sell-off sharply, with the S&P 500 index declining by 7% from its peak at the end of April, wiping-out almost all of the gains previously achieved during 2011. This sell-off has accelerated following the re > read more

Reader Question: Should I Invest In Gold and Silver?

Published on 2011-06-10 07:14:38

After the sale of a property I now have some money to invest. I’m sceptical of advice given to me because I’m not that knowledgable & don’t want to lose it. I’m looking for something safe to beat inflation. Would gold/silv > read more

The Power of Brands

Published on 2011-06-08 05:37:56

Yesterday, after what felt like a couple of hours of trying to scratch my eyeballs out of their sockets, I decided it would be sensible to make my annual purchase of anti-hayfever tablets. Arriving at the local supermarket, I found a number of bran > read more

Robert Wiseman Dairies

Published on 2011-06-07 05:43:12

Well-done to all the readers who correctly identified the mystery company discussed earlier this week was indeed Robert Wiseman Dairies plc. Unfortunately, no prizes are on offer, but with this post I do include a much more detailed analysis of the > read more

Misunderstanding Enterprise Value: The Economist & Financial Times Edition

Published on 2011-06-06 05:16:29

From the Lex column (“Renault: carmaker is running on empty“) in the Financial Times on 31st May 2011: Subtract the market value of Renault’s stakes in Nissan, Avtovaz of Russia, Daimler and Volvo, and the stub value of the French carma > read more

Liberty Global Break-Up Value

Published on 2011-06-02 06:32:10

I’ve written previously on the investment attractions of Liberty Global Inc (here and here), but in this post I’ve decided to tackle the issue of valuation from a slightly different angle by attempting to calculate what the individual par > read more

Would You Buy Shares in this Mystery Company?

Published on 2011-05-31 05:38:47

I’ve found a stock that appears to tick many of the boxes that might appear on Warren Buffett‘s pre-investment checklist. I’ve included the below a list of the company’s key operating and financial characteristics. I’ > read more

Tweedy, Browne 1Q11 Investor Letter

Published on 2011-05-22 06:13:13

As I’ve written before, one good way of finding good investment ideas is to plagiarise those of others. My attention was brought to recent investment Expedia via Glenview Capital and before that to SINA by Eric Jackson. My attention has rec > read more

JP Morgan’s Favourite European Mid-Cap Equity Ideas

Published on 2011-05-17 07:55:10

Given that the bulk of my equity investments are in US-listed companies, I’ve become a little conscious that I might be neglecting good investment ideas in companies that operate a little closer to home. So, in order to start the process of l > read more

A Warning Signal From Retail Investors?

Published on 2011-05-16 05:01:55

Hargreaves Lansdown, the retail broker that handles my ISA and SIPP accounts provides on its website a regular breakdown of the most popular trades by its customers, which can be viewed by following the link here. I include below a table showing th > read more

Domino’s Pizza Inc Update

Published on 2011-05-15 07:33:23

Regular readers will be aware that shares in Domino’s Pizza Inc (NYSE:DPZ) is one of my key equity holdings, and I have previously written bullish posts on the company here and here. Since I invested in late December 2010, the DPZ share price > read more

A Leveraged-Buy-Out of Apple Inc?

Published on 2011-05-12 10:12:38

Although such a transaction is unlikely to happen given the size of Apple’s market capitalisation ($319bn) and the huge equity requirement that such a deal entails, I still think it is a worthwhile exercise to consider Apple’s capital str > read more

Credit Analysis of Liberty Global Inc

Published on 2011-05-08 16:12:45

NASDAQ-listed Liberty Global Inc, an operator of cable television networks, is my second-largest equity investment and I have previously written about the equity investment case here. For a recent job interview I prepared a credit analysis of UPC H > read more

The Bull Case for Expedia & Tripadvisor

Published on 2011-05-05 08:46:37

Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) is a provider of online air travel, hotel room, cruise ship and car rental booking services through its websites which include expedia.com, hotels.com, hotwire.com and venere.com; and of travel advertising services through its w > read more

Why You Shouldn’t Invest In Index Funds

Published on 2011-05-02 06:28:31

I’ve recently spent some time looking at the Glencore flotation and its implications for the composition of the FTSE-100 index and therefore, in turn, the investors in index funds which track the FTSE-100. I’ve now done some further wor > read more

Time is Money: A Personal Lesson

Published on 2011-04-26 05:12:32

US founding father Benjamin Franklin wrote that “time is money”, adding that “He that can earn ten shilhngs a day by his labour, and goes abroad or sits idle one half of that day, though he spends but sixpence during his diversion o > read more

Thoughts on the Glencore IPO

Published on 2011-04-18 05:14:56

“Glencore is a leading integrated producer and marketer of commodities. The Company is active in every step of the supply chain in metals and minerals, energy and agricultural products. Glencore produces, sources, processes, refines, transpor > read more

The Bizarre Nature of The Chinese Real Estate Construction Boom

Published on 2011-04-11 07:33:53

China, as we all know, is a booming economy, having experienced GDP growth of above 6% per annum for each of the last 20 years. The conventional wisdom is that this growth has been driven by the low-value manufacturing exports (mainly of consumer g > read more

Property Pain In Spain

Published on 2011-04-06 14:46:32

While spending the past weekend in the Costa del Sol holiday resort of Puerto Banús, I couldn’t help noticing many signs that the local economy still seems to be in the doldrums. While there wasn’t any shortage of people drinking, eati > read more

In Support the Bank of England on Monetary Policy

Published on 2011-03-28 05:49:24

While reading the Office for Budget Responsibility‘s United Kingdom Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2011 over the weekend (yes, I had that much fun), I noticed the chart below: It shows the difference between the current rate of UK in > read more

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Blog Feed: Cautious Bull

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