All night long Americans were laser focused on Ohio waiting for the decision to basically announce the eventual winner of the Presidential elections. There will be plenty of blame to pass around though none of the finger-pointing will serve any purpose beyond allowing venting of pent up frustrations. Now all that is left is to make the predictions of what President Obama being reelected means for the United States and the world. Who are the big winners and who will be the big losers will be bandied back and forth. I can safely claim that my vote made absolutely no actual difference as I do not live in one of the states where there was any doubt as to who would win the state’s Electoral College votes. So, what predictions can we foresee resulting from President Obama’s victorious reelection bid?
The most obvious result is that the Affordable Health Care Act (Obama Care) will be enacted and everybody will finally fully realize exactly what is in the bill as was promised by then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi would only happen once the bill was passed. We can expect the House of Representatives to be castigated by the President, Vice President, Democrats in the House of Representatives and Senate, and much of the mainstream media for being obstructionist and confrontational when the Republican majority there does not pass legislation and other parts of the President’s agenda. With the Democrats retaining their majority in the Senate we can expect there to be the same budget standoff as has existed for the past three years and there will likely not be an actual budget passed until after the midterm elections at the earliest if at all for the rest of President Obama’s time in office. The emergency forced budget cuts will very likely be allowed to take effect as there will be no agreement in time to avoid what will prove to be a catastrophic result. These cuts will have critical and possibly devastating effect on the United States military preparedness and abilities. The Supreme Court will be transformed from its current perceived conservative leaning into a much more strongly liberal as President Obama will very likely get to appoint three and possibly four Supreme Court Justices with at least two of the Justices replaced will be from the conservative end of the Court. There is a group of conservatives who will actually gain fiscally despite their steady delivery of doom and gloom, the conservative talk show broadcasters. The economy will likely continue to slowly make meager gains and will be touted as a steady, controlled building under the intelligent and steady leadership and stewardship of President Obama. We can expect a few months of liberal “told you so” bragging from some of the more liberal elites. But what about the expectations abroad?
There is a distinct possibility that there will be an attempt to sign on to a treaty which will heavily curtail firearms sales if not also ownership either with the United Nations or with a foreign country likely Mexico which had been the likely intent behind the Fast and Furious fiasco. There is a much higher chance that when the Palestinians seek a declaration recognizing them as a country with the 1949 Armistice Lines (the Green Line also known as the 1967 Lines) as the recognized border through the United Nations that the United States will not apply their veto and instead simply abstain allowing it to pass the Security Council. Should this come to pass, then it can be expected that within the next year or two that the Palestinian Authority will be admitted into the United Nations with full membership as the nation of Palestine. Expect for direct negotiations to be announced with Iran and the United States over the Iranian nuclear program. These negotiations will likely result in an agreement which will allow for Iran to continue to produce fuel for their nuclear reactors and research in exchange for their guarantee that they will not produce any working nuclear weapons and submit to regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This will lead to an arms race with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and possibly other Middle East and North African nations and even a distinct probability of other developing nations all pursuing nuclear weapons due to their suspicions that Iran will still work to develop their own and because there will be no honest impediments to prevent the demise of the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty). Israel will face a unified international front opposing any thoughts of attempting to destroy or otherwise impede the Iranian nuclear program and they would have an arms embargo applied should they ignore these warnings and attack Iranian nuclear sites.
The Arab Spring, I mean Arab Winter, will expand in the near future with the monarchies being the next targets for replacement with “elected” governments which will simply be the venue utilized to put Islamist governments in place after the governments fall. Turkey will accelerate their slide to fall under Sharia as will Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and any new nations which will fall under Islamic influence. Some of the nations facing such a threat include but are not limited to Kenya, Nigeria, and Mali. Much of Afghanistan will return to Taliban control and Pakistan will come under control of Islamist extremists. Even if Bashir Assad falls, Syria will then come under the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood. Lebanon very well may return to the violence of a civil war once Bashir Assad falls as Hezballah will not give up their control without a fight. Europe will continue to have a growing Muslim influence as their Muslim populations continue to increase. This will be further aggravated by financial difficulties for much of the European Union members which will eventually begin to drag down the nations who will be expected to carry the financial burdens of the entire EU. We could see the EU be dissolved as the financially stable countries refuse to continue to bail out the financially troubled nations, especially as the troubled countries elect governments which refuse to continue austerity measures, especially if riots and lawlessness continues to grow. This might be able to be avoided briefly should President Obama manage to find a method for the United States to assist Germany, France and whomever else are attempting to hold the European Union together. This would lead to another round of Quantitative Easing if the United States has not considerably increased the rate of their economic recovery. What will remain to be seen is whether or not the United States will be able to find a controlled way of siphoning off the large amounts of dollars that have been invented electronically to fund the Quantitative Easing which was used to bail out the different financial difficulties and attempt to soften the downturn of the economy. Failing to find such an avenue will spur steadily increasing inflation which will run a risk of becoming a runaway problem. This will require either raising interest rates, possibly considerably, or raising taxes or some combination of the two. Both of these actions will dampen the recovery which will then put pressure on the government to retreat from these measures. Any way one looks at this it presents a very difficult problem and some amount of fiscal pain will have to be suffered before everything will once again equal out and balance.
None of this is to say that reelecting President Obama was a mistake by the American electorate as it was nowhere near guaranteed that Mitt Romney would have presented a necessarily better alternative. A Romney Presidency would have taken a different approach more than likely but until we actually witness how the coming Obama Presidency handles and deals with these vexing problems we cannot definitively answer that question. One thing we can be assured is that there will be endless second guessing over these election results going forward. All the second guessing and what ifs will amount to nothing more than noise. No matter how many times going forward some will say if only or we should have it will not change what actually is and is a waste of time, effort and breath. Instead, those who spend time second guessing would serve everybody far better by attempting to work with what is and forget about what will not be. The choice has been made, the dye cast, the ballots counted (and likely some recounted) and the time for thinking of what else could have been done is passed. Now Americans need to work together with what is and make it be for the best and seek changes should they be your desire at the next election. Working to have President Obama fail hurts the country and should not be something anybody should desire. The course is set and we need to do what we can to guide the Ship of State through what is very likely going to be difficult waters full of jagged rocks, icebergs, and dangerous obstacles that would have menaced whoever won. It was President Obama and he cannot rule alone and will need to compromise and bend at least some amount if he is to reach agreements with the whole of the country. We can only hope for the best and pray we avoid the worst and be prepared to face whichever the future will hold.
Beyond the Cusp