This is a daily timeframe of AUD/USD analysis for coming week of 14 May 2012 to 18 May 2012, AUD/USD weekly analysis.
AUD/USD since cut rate to 3.75% lack of bull strength, and its very near parity to psychological level at 1.000 AUD/USD level. It is likely it will challenge at least its support upcoming support @ 0.9980 and next at 0.9920 level.
The 2nd daily support @ 0.9880 zone is crucial, as its likely to act as a divergence from the oversold market, and likely to rally back into 1st target 1.02 and then 1.05 in the weeks to come.
EURO-Zone family problems is one of the key factors that will provide fundamental influence into the market.
The week starts with Home loans from AUD/USD, A weak data will send AUD/USD into 0.9980 and 0.9970 during Asian trading hours. A better than expected data may rally AUD/USD back into middle line @ 1.0050 zone and capped at 1.0080 and with strong resistance at 1.0090.
In Overall, AUD/USD should be testing 0.9880 zone during this risk sentiment weeks that is heavily selling off. As Market is likely to push AUD/USD into parity for a few reasons.
1) Political reason for USA. 2) S&P500 and other indices will be not performing, as they have short it from 1420 zone, targeting at least 1320 zone. With Apple no longer able to provide the market with new stuff after IPhone4s unless it introduce a new market product quickly to salvage its shares price drop, and its still overly expensive. 3) The correlation of S&P500 will send AUD/USD Down. 4) Few of EUR data release if negative is likely to send AUD/USD Down.
Unless AUD/USD can break 1.0225 resistance level within this week, its unlikely to return to its strong bullish signs.
Though technically, after 2 weeks of overselling conditions. This week should be a bullish week for AUD/USD, But EUR/USD already near 1.28 zone which shows a lack of support of buyers in the market for other currencies other than USD and JPY.
JPY may send fundamental rumors to push AUD/USD and other pairs higher to temporary support the selling conditions of AUD and EUR.
Safest bet : enter a buy @ 0.9880 with 50 stop loss, target 1.02. Scalp and sell every rally unless broken 1.0225.